iran nuclear deal

[ngatimozart]

Brigadier general of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a senior official in the nuclear program of Iran is a "civilian"?
There is a limit to hypocrisy.
IRGC is a terrorist organisation in US, Israel and some other countries.
Definitely legit military target.

Ok then back you claim up with verifiable reliable sources then. Prove it.

Why would we want to drag US in(it's actually opposite and create more problems for israel)? And why do it after election in US? Make no sense whatsoever.
Try for a change do a normal military analysis of threats Iran pose against israel, you will see that it's hezis in Lebanon and iranian contingent in Syria.
On both fronts US is of no help.
US or Gulf states involvement in conflict is good for Iran, not israel, as provide them additional targets and tool to pressure israel diplomatically to end conflict prematurely.
With Tramp certainly risk of US military response to these threats is greater, then US diplomatically pressure Israel, so Iran simply won't move till Tramp end his presidency.
And "pure" EU concerned about oil that flows from ME, nothing else.

P.S. Sorry for harsh language, but your post really make no sense.IMO
Even if Israel did it and no some other party from not that small pool of concerned states.

Of course the EU looks to its own interest. It does have a responsibility to its own citizens before any others. So does the US and every other nation or national grouping. Israel is renowned for it even selling advanced technologies to the PRC against US wishes. Israel and France are quite mercenary in that.

They judge others for acting in a certain way, when it's likely they would act similarly, if they were in the same security situation. And of course, they are not in the same situation - they haven't seen war, or even conflict, for many years.
Most were called upon to assist in the war on terror, as EU countries have a NATO membership as well, but that's about it.


In my comment I referred once to the US, as the guarantor of European security, and once to Israel as an ally of EU members.


Pretty much any military mission by anyone, involves state sponsored extra judicial killing. That's literally what war is about. Israel and Iran are at war, even if some prefer to keep things covert.
And Fakhrizadeh is not a civilian. He's a military target, and so were his body guards. They were all members of the IRGC, an institution classified as a military in Iran and elsewhere. The fact that some also classify it as a terrorist organization as well, is not really important. So by international norms he's a legitimate target.


As much as I dislike Netanyahu, there's probably 1 thing I can give him credit for - averting war. It's arguable whether that's even a positive thing when you know it's inevitable (i.e Gaza, not Iran), therefore merely delaying it, but he served as PM during several periods of time considered optimal for some form of military action against Iran, and he was among a good bunch of people who opposed it.
Mossad operations like this take years. Back in 2018 it was impossible to tell who will be the American president in a few years, how long the operation would take, and what would be the global political climate when it happens.

As a former serviceman in the intelligence corps, in a certain unit that is not the Mossad, I can tell you with confidence that many times an operation is executed regardless of politics because many times it just comes down to a "now or never" situation.

People thought Iran would start a war when the US killed Qasem Soleimani. It didn't.
People thought it would start a war when Israel killed Imad Moghniyeh. It didn't.
Or the strikes on Iranians in Syria and Iraq.
Same with many incidents that sound too abnormal to many that they would start a war, but it never happened. Iran has a batshit crazy, but pragmatic leadership. They won't start something that would endanger the regime even the slightest.

Netanyahu has other ways to subvert his opponents and allies alike, and the judicial system. War usually lowered an incumbent PM's popularity, at least in Israel.

But even if you're right, why attempt such a thing when his most powerful political tool right now is the peace accords with Arab states?

And last point I'd like to make, it is often assumed that in the US-Israel relations, one is dragging the other to do something, and then vice versa.
But when speculations end and more info gets declassified, it's usually a case of cooperation and both accepting risks.
Many thought the US assassination of Qasem Soleimani and the Kataib Hezbollah leader was directly endangering Israel, but apparently Israel helped with that op.
And with Imad Moghniyeh, the CIA provided assistance.

And Israel is holier than thou? I doubt it very much. Israel is no better or no worse than Iran. Look in the mirror and you see the same people; it's just that they wear different clothes.

Extremely important, for Israel at least, we do not use targeted spec ops against simple military targets.
In such cases we target facilities and assets.
As far as i'm aware Israel target either terrorist or active and critical member of non conventional weapon program. Fakhrizadeh is both.
Otherwise it is blocked by supreme court judge during decision making, as it is not "imminent threat".

P.S. This for example policy, that governed targeted killing during second intifada:

In February 2002 Menachem Finkelstein, the judge advocate general of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), issued three conditions under which targeted killing can take place. Before suspected terrorists are killed the PA must first ignore appeals for their arrest, the Israelis must conclude that they would be unable to arrest the individuals themselves, and the killing must be done to prevent an imminent or future terrorist attack—not for revenge or retribution. The Israeli High Court has supported these conditions in a strongly worded opinion on January 29, 2002, that rejected petitions calling for an end to targeted killing. Provided these conditions are followed, targeted killing is consistent with Israeli law.11

https://www.law.upenn.edu/institutes/cerl/conferences/targetedkilling/papers/DavidIsraelPolicy.pdf

As far as i'm concerned this operation is consistent with this procedure.

Do you? I look at what Israel does to the Palestinians, the continual theft of Palestinian land for Israeli settlements, its deliberate ignorance of UNSC resolutions etc. And you expect us to believe that everything that Israel does is right, fair, and legal? You both have to be dreaming if you think that.

You are locked in a hall of mirrors and cannot see the wood for the trees. There is no longer objectively when others criticise Israel. You all go into attack mode and don't actually read or analyse what's being said. That's a failing.

We like the fact that there are 2 Israelis on here but we don't hold to the belief that Israel can do no wrong. The Moderators are discussing at present whether or not to lock this thread. This Kiwi Moderator hasn't made his mind up yet.

Being a Kiwi I don't tend to bugger around and tend to tell it as it is. We and the Aussies are much like that because its in our blood and has to do with the lands we live in. We don't intend to offend people but we do have a colourful use of language as well. You should hear what we call our mates. Anywhere else in the world it would start brawls. So I haven't written what I have said to offend anyone, but just to make my point that Israel isn't without sin.

 

[Hone C]

Ok then back you claim up with verifiable reliable sources then.

Iran vows retaliation after top nuclear scientist shot dead near Tehran

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, identified by Israel as director of nuclear weapons programme, ambushed in street

www.theguardian.com

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh: key figure in Iran's nuclear efforts who avoided limelight

Analysis: Engineer was identified by UN report as central figure in work to develop atomic bombs

www.theguardian.com

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh: Who was the assassinated Iranian scientist?

Iranian scientist widely seen by Western intelligence as mastermind behind Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons.

www.aljazeera.com

The involvement of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in defence R&D, nuclear research, and his membership of the IRGC have been fairly widely reported.

 

[Beholder]

Ok then back you claim up with verifiable reliable sources then. Prove it.

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh: The father of Iranian regime’s nuclear bomb

Dr Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a brigadier general in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), and a professor of physics at the Guard’s Imam Hussein

english.alarabiya.net

Dr Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a brigadier general in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC),

This article from 2018. I can provide other, question is what considered verifiable reliable sources.

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh | Iran Watch

Senior Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL) scientist and former head of Iran's Physics Research Center (PHRC); on July 8, 2008, added to the Specially Designated National (SDN) list maintained by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC)...

www.iranwatch.org

This is about nuclear proliferation risk associated with him.

 

[Beholder]

Do you? I look at what Israel does to the Palestinians, the continual theft of Palestinian land for Israeli settlements, its deliberate ignorance of UNSC resolutions etc. And you expect us to believe that everything that Israel does is right, fair, and legal? You both have to be dreaming if you think that.

You are locked in a hall of mirrors and cannot see the wood for the trees. There is no longer objectively when others criticise Israel. You all go into attack mode and don't actually read or analyse what's being said. That's a failing.

We like the fact that there are 2 Israelis on here but we don't hold to the belief that Israel can do no wrong. The Moderators are discussing at present whether or not to lock this thread. This Kiwi Moderator hasn't made his mind up yet.

Being a Kiwi I don't tend to bugger around and tend to tell it as it is. We and the Aussies are much like that because its in our blood and has to do with the lands we live in. We don't intend to offend people but we do have a colourful use of language as well. You should hear what we call our mates. Anywhere else in the world it would start brawls. So I haven't written what I have said to offend anyone, but just to make my point that Israel isn't without sin.

I didn't say you have to believe Israel can do no wrong(i myself don't believe in it), i said make at least valid analysis of what hapened.
Same about Palestinian land, it's politic, so i will not discourse it. But isn't first step in analysis should be legal status of that land under international law? That is unless you believe UN can do no wrong.

 

[Beholder]

Of course the EU looks to its own interest. It does have a responsibility to its own citizens before any others. So does the US and every other nation or national grouping. Israel is renowned for it even selling advanced technologies to the PRC against US wishes. Israel and France are quite mercenary in that.

That is false. Israel never sold advanced technologies to the PRC against US wishes.
What happened is Israel tried to sell advanced technologies, then US objected(first bcs they were thinking there are parts of US technology there, which was not the case, then bcs simply didn't want PRC to have such technologies), then deal was cancelled and special regime of pre approval audit was implemented. End of story.

 

[ngatimozart]

I didn't say you have to believe Israel can do no wrong(i myself don't believe in it), i said make at least valid analysis of what hapened.
Same about Palestinian land, it's politic, so i will not discourse it. But isn't first step in analysis should be legal status of that land under international law? That is unless you believe UN can do no wrong.

Haha the UN do no wrong? I ain't that stupid - yet. As far as I understand the borders of 1967 still legally apply, however I am not an international legal lawyer. Yes we shall stay away from the politics because they carry the stench of manure.

That is false. Israel never sold advanced technologies to the PRC against US wishes.
What happened is Israel tried to sell advanced technologies, then US objected(first bcs they were thinking there are parts of US technology there, which was not the case, then bcs simply didn't want PRC to have such technologies), then deal was cancelled and special regime of pre approval audit was implemented. End of story.

Is it false? Not many believe that story and I certainly don't. People in the outside world aren't as silly as some people like to think.

 

[Beholder]

Is it false? Not many believe that story and I certainly don't. People in the outside world aren't as silly as some people like to think.

I think i can compose circumstantial proof of this(assuming we go with innocent until proved guilty concept), but it will need to wait till friday, bcs i don't know one source, so it will be large collection of articles. Usually what happens is one claim, one debunk, then whoever wants to blame israel take all claims and post them as proved.

 

[Todjaeger]

The involvement of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in defence R&D, nuclear research, and his membership of the IRGC have been fairly widely reported.

Given the interest in him by the IAEA among others, there seems little doubt about his involvement in R&D especially in nuclear given what has been published about his academic background. Tying him to the IRG is another matter though IMO, as the articles even touch upon the potential issues.

Very little is apparently known publicly about him, and it seems that until 2018, there was no picture of him available. Further, and what causes me to question some of what has been stated, is that much of the information which is available has come from groups of Iranian exiles and/or opposition members, who quite naturally would have their own agendas. This in turn means that information coming from these groups might very well be accurate and contain data unavailable to others due to their potential ties to and contacts still in Iran, but at the very same time that information could be inaccurate or even outright false, depending on the source's accuracy and/or agenda.

Case in point, it seems that the statement regarding the rank of Brigadier General in the IRG can be traced to a report issued in May 2011 by the exiled opposition group National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI). Here we are, nearly a decade later. This means that in addition to the potential for the initial report to have been wrong, there has been time for changes in associations to have occurred.

So far it seems that everyone agrees that he's dead, and had likely been involved in Iranian nuclear R&D. Not sure about other claims though.

Something I think everyone should at least pause and consider is how they and their country would react to the targeted assassination of a high level gov't official/researcher/military officer, carried out within their own borders by an outside group.

 

[Beholder]

Something I think everyone should at least pause and consider is how they and their country would react to the targeted assassination of a high level gov't official/researcher/military officer, carried out within their own borders by an outside group.

Why, is your country same as Iran? And group is from country like Israel?
Leaving aside ties with IRGC.
Let's say NK threatened to eliminate ROK, then ROK killed NK head of nuke program(not now, but when bomb still was in plans). Is it unacceptable?
Not for me.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

@ngatimozart There is much nuance in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as well as the directly connected Arab-Israeli conflict. However, things can be simplified without going into the shady area of anecdotal rhetorical questions.
It's a shame, IMO, that you decided to take a hostile stance to Israelis and generalize, when Israelis do not share that hostility to you, your country, and our other allies from whom criticism is heard on the public (but not governmental) level.

I can tell you that I wholeheartedly believe that had Israel's leadership been replaced by any foreign leadership, primarily a European one, that new leadership would not be able to solve the security issues at hand in the way they currently advocate for.

But regardless of your criticism of Israel itself, saying that Israel and Iran are one and the same, is not just wrong. It is outright insulting.
That would be akin to observing the Nazi-British war during WW2, and due to lack of understanding just saying they're both the same.

There is absolutely no comparison between any western nation, be it Israel or anyone else, and a regime that executes its own people in the streets for merely protesting, and keeps a 2nd army just to keep its population in check.

Here people are protesting against a corrupt PM for attacking the justice system.
In Iran 15,000 dead protesters is barely news.

 

[ngatimozart]

@ngatimozart There is much nuance in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as well as the directly connected Arab-Israeli conflict. However, things can be simplified without going into the shady area of anecdotal rhetorical questions.
It's a shame, IMO, that you decided to take a hostile stance to Israelis and generalize, when Israelis do not share that hostility to you, your country, and our other allies from whom criticism is heard on the public (but not governmental) level.

I can tell you that I wholeheartedly believe that had Israel's leadership been replaced by any foreign leadership, primarily a European one, that new leadership would not be able to solve the security issues at hand in the way they currently advocate for.

But regardless of your criticism of Israel itself, saying that Israel and Iran are one and the same, is not just wrong. It is outright insulting.
That would be akin to observing the Nazi-British war during WW2, and due to lack of understanding just saying they're both the same.

There is absolutely no comparison between any western nation, be it Israel or anyone else, and a regime that executes its own people in the streets for merely protesting, and keeps a 2nd army just to keep its population in check.

Here people are protesting against a corrupt PM for attacking the justice system.
In Iran 15,000 dead protesters is barely news.

Like I said in my post I had no intention of being offensive and I will freely apologise for any offence given. I just used the Kiwi direct approach and it got your attention.

I do not think that it's a lack of understanding on my part, but an outsiders viewpoint because I am not emotionally invested in the situation. So I have a cold detached view that allows me to neither favour nor fault either side and I do not have favourites in this issue because as far as I am concerned all sides of this issue are at fault. No one comes out smelling of roses.

We have a national affliction here called the tall poppy syndrome and it's Kiwis not liking other Kiwis who do well for themselves so we try knock them down to fit back in with the mob. Unless they are rugby players and wear the All Black jersey - then they are Gods; until they lose to Australia, and boy do we sulk when that happens. Governments have fallen if it happens close to an election.

I want to get you to look at how Israel is seen by others in the west and to think around your automatic forting up every time someone criticises Israel. It blinds your objectively and is your one weakness; not just you personally, but it appears to be a national affliction. I understand the psychology for the automatic forting up, but it is my strong belief that you have to break that pattern of behaviour in order to be increase your objectivity and be able to honestly critically analyse any situation that involves Israel, both good and bad. I know how difficult that is but I believe that it is important to remove the emotional attachment from the analysis. I can do that because of my background in earth / environmental sciences, but it is sometimes difficult for me as well.

That is where I am coming from. It's about going beyond the text and drilling down into the reasoning behind the text, which was explained in the text.

 

[ngatimozart]

Why, is your country same as Iran? And group is from country like Israel?
Leaving aside ties with IRGC.
Let's say NK threatened to eliminate ROK, then ROK killed NK head of nuke program(not now, but when bomb still was in plans). Is it unacceptable?
Not for me.

Todjaeger most definitely does not come from South Korea. I know that for certain. I don't know if he's been there. He will tell you himself what part of the world he resides in if he so wishes, but don't make assumptions based upon someone's forum name. I myself would've thought it to be Germanic in origin, which it probably is, but it doesn't mean that he resides in a German speaking country, which he doesn't.

 

[Beholder]

Todjaeger most definitely does not come from South Korea. I know that for certain. I don't know if he's been there. He will tell you himself what part of the world he resides in if he so wishes, but don't make assumptions based upon someone's forum name. I myself would've thought it to be Germanic in origin, which it probably is, but it doesn't mean that he resides in a German speaking country, which he doesn't.

If anything Todjaeger sounds nordic for me, not german.
I never presumed him being from ROC. It simply close analogy that does not involve israel.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Like I said in my post I had no intention of being offensive and I will freely apologise for any offence given. I just used the Kiwi direct approach and it got your attention.

I do not think that it's a lack of understanding on my part, but an outsiders viewpoint because I am not emotionally invested in the situation. So I have a cold detached view that allows me to neither favour nor fault either side and I do not have favourites in this issue because as far as I am concerned all sides of this issue are at fault. No one comes out smelling of roses.

We have a national affliction here called the tall poppy syndrome and it's Kiwis not liking other Kiwis who do well for themselves so we try knock them down to fit back in with the mob. Unless they are rugby players and wear the All Black jersey - then they are Gods; until they lose to Australia, and boy do we sulk when that happens. Governments have fallen if it happens close to an election.

I want to get you to look at how Israel is seen by others in the west and to think around your automatic forting up every time someone criticises Israel. It blinds your objectively and is your one weakness; not just you personally, but it appears to be a national affliction. I understand the psychology for the automatic forting up, but it is my strong belief that you have to break that pattern of behaviour in order to be increase your objectivity and be able to honestly critically analyse any situation that involves Israel, both good and bad. I know how difficult that is but I believe that it is important to remove the emotional attachment from the analysis. I can do that because of my background in earth / environmental sciences, but it is sometimes difficult for me as well.

That is where I am coming from. It's about going beyond the text and drilling down into the reasoning behind the text, which was explained in the text.

It may seem as though I am "forting up" and going on an offensive as Israel is criticized, but that is not the case at all.
Since a young age I've taken great interest in politics, and formed my own opinion on matters of foreign policies, civil and social rights, and economy. My views have, as of today, always placed me in the opposition bloc.

What you've said is not something I regard as criticism of Israel at all. There's a huge list of things you can say that are legitimate criticism of it. But the vast majority of people who decide to "criticize" it are merely throwing slogans they do not understand.
Israel, its government, and people, are a lot more than just the conflicts it has to endure, even if many willingly choose to forget that.

A typical Israeli's view on security policies is very simplified. Often by choice, not ignorance. Mine, however, is nuanced due to my more scientific than emotional investment in it.
The approach I endorse for a resolution of some of Israel's conflicts is something I know from experience that most Israelis would object.

It simply happened that the specific issues you've touched, are ones I disagree with you. And you chose to use a more emotional wording for some reason.
Those specific issues are more complicated than what you understand.
If you wish to debate them separately via a private message, I'd be happy to answer.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Nuke chief killed with Israeli weapons controlled by satellite – Iranian report

State TV says weapon found at scene of Fakhrizadeh killing bore 'logo and specifications of the Israeli military industry'; senior official confirms attack was carried out remotely

www.timesofisrael.com

Quite an odd statement. After withdrawing previous versions like capturing one perpetrator alive, they say the attack was carried out remotely via satellite.
What striked me as odd is that they said the weapon system had a logo of an Israeli military industry, of course not specifying the company, system, or showing a photo.

If it was an Israeli op, it would have been done by an intelligence unit, usually the Mossad.
Every system that becomes operational goes through a rigorous concealment process down to a chemical treatment to remove fingerprints, to disassociate it from any entity and individual.
So to leave a logo on?

 

[Beholder]

I think i can compose circumstantial proof of this(assuming we go with innocent until proved guilty concept), but it will need to wait till friday, bcs i don't know one source, so it will be large collection of articles. Usually what happens is one claim, one debunk, then whoever wants to blame israel take all claims and post them as proved.

In general accusation of israeli tech transfer to China concentrate in timeframe from 1992-2005.
What critics cite is that Israel is second largest weapon supplier, which is true in a way(just not amount to anything, absolute value of military trade is very small). And that technology transferred had parts of US technology, or that such transfers problematic to military balance in region.

This study cover till year ~1996:

(PDF) Israel's Military Transfers to China and Taiwan

PDF | Criticism of Israeli military-technology transfers to China is largely unfounded. The sales actually enjoyed tacit American support when they... | Find, read and cite all the research you need on ResearchGate

www.researchgate.net

I find it's mostly correct. There is part that address alleged transfer of
Patriot missile designs;
the Mapatz anti-tank missile, allegedly a copy of Hughes Aircraft Company’s TOW-2 missile;
the Python 3 AAM, allegedly adapted from the US air-intercept missile 9L Sidewinder;
day/night thermal-imaging tank sights;
and, especially, the technology of the terminated Lavi fighter project which has
allegedly been incorporated into the design of China’s new fighter, the J-10.

Some clarification:

the Python-3 exported to the
PRC – and several other countries – had been used by the Israeli Air Force well
before the Sidewinder missile technology was received and does not contain US
components.

Design is israeli, It does contain US component in version for IAF, what sold to China does not(Rafael declined to disclose from where, my guess it is components from South Africa).

The manufacturer, Rafael, declined State Department requests to identify "non-U.S. sources of supply" claiming it involves proprietary business information. As a result, all pending Python 3 retransfer applications were "returned without action" from the State Department. (Wall Street Journal , 9 April 1992)

Regarding Lavi there were allegations from russian engineers working in China that Israel helped with chinese plane, israel denied this.
This article from 2019:

Did Israel 'Transfer' Military Technology to Help China Build the J-10 Fighter?

The details are here.

nationalinterest.org

You can make your own opinion, J-10 is different from Lavi, i don't know if chineese gained some aspirations from Lavi aerodynamic, but all important things that Israel had capability to transfer(avionic) not there.
---
Now these report is from 1999. During that timeframe main concern wad transfer of technology, not military balance.
That started to change, bcs while US tech transfer was not issue, military balance was.

Phalcon radar deal was cancelled because of this, then special memorandum was signed between Israel and US, giving US more transparency.
---
Then upgrade of Harpy drone in 2005.
First it also started as tech transfer accusation:

The officials claimed that Israel was merely refurbishing old drones which had been exported with American consent. The US argued that the drones had been upgraded using new technology which it had shared with Israel.

US acts over Israeli arms sales to China

The United States has imposed sanctions on Israel after a dispute over Israel's sale of drones - unmanned aerial vehicles - to China, according to news reports.

www.theguardian.com

This transformed to this:

U.S. defence officials objected on the grounds that the spare parts constituted a significant upgrade of the anti-radar aircraft, possibly including the addition of sensors that could even detect radar sites that are turned off.

No word about US tech.

Then another memorandum was signed, giving not just transparency, but some degree of control to US over israeli sales:

The terms of the agreement, reported Sunday in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, are set to be finalized this week when an Israeli delegation visits Washington. Under the deal, confirmed generally by Israeli officials Sunday, Israel will sign a memorandum of understanding with the Pentagon that will give U.S. officials some discretion over the terms of future Israeli arms exports. Israeli officials characterized the memorandum as a set of guidelines governing future transactions, including those in which the United States and Israel are competing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2005/06/27/israel-set-to-end-china-arms-deal-under-us-pressure/72734d39-e37c-4ae7-a61f-2cca56516a1e/

----
This is RAND report from 2019, also a good overview:

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR2600/RR2641/RAND_RR2641.pdf

And that's basically it.