Just read the latest rumor at DEBKA, yeah, I know, they are a bit out there but interesting theories to ponder. One is that Iran might try to slowly close or curtail the Straits, not really sure how Iran would proceed but I am guessing the idea is to continually keep tensions and oil prices high and make the Europeans and Asian countries wonder if it is worth it. Not sure I buy how Iran could "slow" traffic but not completely stop it
, just put a bit of a squeeze. Still, I think it's an interesting thought.
Easy, send some people out in boats to get in front of the tankers and force them to turn. Environmental fanatics have done it lots of times, watch “Whale Wars” for some examples. The only counter tactic is to have your own boats out there either arresting them or playing chicken, both of which can lead to lots of incidents that Iran can exploit.
The other one will make the person (I can't remember the name) on that other Iran thread happy, the one where we spent so much time "invading Queshm", supposedly the US has a 100,000 troops massing on Socotra and Masirah islands. Wow, that is quite a lot and in pretty much complete secrecy. Can't see anything on Google Earth as the latest satellite pictures date of 2004-2005, we would need more recent ones to see in the US has a huge base on the islands. Personally, I don't buy it.:lol3
DEBKA is an Israeli site that deals in unsourced rumors. DEBKA claims they are 80% accuracy, but Israeli intelligence says it is more like 10% (which may be sour grapes on their part). The story has been picked up by a variety of sites, but so far no news services.
The number of troops on Socotra and Masirah will be 50,000, not 100,000. The other 50,000 will be at other locations in the region.
Socotra is part of Yemen and located in the center of the mouth of the Gulf of Aden leading to the Red Sea, and is on the other side of Saudi Arabia from Iran. Population about 43,000.
There have been a lot of proposals to put a naval base there because:
- It is perfectly located for anti-piracy patrols to keep the Somali Pirates out of the Red Sea.
- It is perfectly located for the Somali pirates who use it as a refueling base.
However, because it is part of Yemen, which is in the middle of a revolution, no one has been able to negotiate a deal.
Masirah is part of Oman and is located on the Indian Ocean. It has been used by the British and American as a refueling base for aircraft starting in 1929. The USA established a logistics base there in the 1980’s, but there are only supposed to be around 3,000 US personnel there to support the transport and patrol aircraft squadrons. Population is around 12,000, including foreign troops.
Masirah
These are not what I would prime stepping of spots for attacking Iran.
- Long distances from Iran for troop deployment. However, for aircraft, Masirah is a good, and historic, choice.
- Climate wise both are good part of the year, and a slice of hell the rest.
- Neither has a deep water port, so they are logistics nightmares.
- Both have insufficient potable water to support the numbers of troops that are rumored to be present.
- Both are small dry desert islands, not large tropical jungle. There is really no way to hide a large base and training areas needed for a buildup.
I think this one is just a rumor.