next month we can expect a visit from DSME, after that Kockums, Navantia...
And in 2024 we still haven't decided which submarine..
Personally now, I just post any news or development and not want to speculate much
It can be by this year, MinDef already close all their planning and move to procurement stage. Or the other way around, as you put it can be dragging on.
It can be they will decide on Submarine first, as they have already invest on PAL submarine facilities. I do sense the Naval projects can get bit more traction than AF fighters project. My previous Bank got involved in providing domestic credit line for Navy patrol boats. Even the LST projects got more traction due to the availability of domestic credit lines on those Naval projects toward local shipyards.
So it's not impossible the Naval projects will get faster allocation of Foreign Credit Line for financing from Overseas projects (Including the license build locally). But let's see on the development.
One of the problem that I see, The law and Political stance of this administration is to get involvement of local Industry. There are relatively reliables Land Based equipment Industry that can be work out with foreign partners for Army Project. Similar thing can be said with local shipyards for Naval projects.
However for AF project the choices more or less only with DI for domestic involvement. Just I put on my previous post on the AF Thread, many in other departments including MinDef doesn't trust DI competency. It's continue shown the lack luster performance, corruption scandal, the low productivity problems, which I sense many in Bapenas and Ministry of Finance did not want to spend more money to DI asside what they already invest for N219.
So, I do sense that (base on suppliers projects in MinDef), they need more discussion on how to solve local Industry involvement in Aerospace considering local aerospace Industry is basically incompetence compared to the Land based and Naval local Industry.
Who knows, the answer is just to sell DI to foreign suppliers that's being choose as preferred AF suppliers. Well it's just my own speculation, besides who wants to Invest or take over highly inefficient Aerospace company like DI. Just like India can't get foreign Investors for HAL.