Ananda
The Bunker Group
The timing on next procurement for Indonesian Armed Forces, I do believe is much fluid right now. The potential of the Opposition will create next administration is getting stronger, but it's also can't discounted the present political factions will not continue hold to the power after next ellection.
Potential Russian influence on next stages of procurement will be higher with the opposition, which traditionally less inclined for Western made assets. Still with the momentum for local Industry involvement on armed forces procurement is getting stronger, and I do believe it's politically irreversible even with the opposition hold next administration.
In such projects with local Industry involvement will still be there. Russian subs for example will still only going to be second alternative toward Korean 209 projects, due to involvement on PAL for the 3rd subs (and potentially onward). Russian manufacturer is less inclined on providing license build Subs project (look the example on Indian and Chinese procurement on Russian subs). For that politically if the projects with Korea on license build subs with PAL did come to fruition, then next subs procurement will be hard politically to sell unles involved domestic license build project.
That's why EADS and Eurocopter will going continue have strong position as long as they have strong relationship with IAe. Whether Panther is better or not ASW platform or cheaper or not compared to say Super Lynx, it's secondary to IAe and Eurocopter deal.
This BTR-4 deal remain to be seen, but if more procurement then this initial 5 they procured will happen or not, going to influence heavily in my opinion not just the trial performance result, but also if the Ukrainian can make deal with Pindad.
Potential Russian influence on next stages of procurement will be higher with the opposition, which traditionally less inclined for Western made assets. Still with the momentum for local Industry involvement on armed forces procurement is getting stronger, and I do believe it's politically irreversible even with the opposition hold next administration.
In such projects with local Industry involvement will still be there. Russian subs for example will still only going to be second alternative toward Korean 209 projects, due to involvement on PAL for the 3rd subs (and potentially onward). Russian manufacturer is less inclined on providing license build Subs project (look the example on Indian and Chinese procurement on Russian subs). For that politically if the projects with Korea on license build subs with PAL did come to fruition, then next subs procurement will be hard politically to sell unles involved domestic license build project.
That's why EADS and Eurocopter will going continue have strong position as long as they have strong relationship with IAe. Whether Panther is better or not ASW platform or cheaper or not compared to say Super Lynx, it's secondary to IAe and Eurocopter deal.
This BTR-4 deal remain to be seen, but if more procurement then this initial 5 they procured will happen or not, going to influence heavily in my opinion not just the trial performance result, but also if the Ukrainian can make deal with Pindad.