A minority report on why America’s Indo-Pacific strategy may fail
1. It is more productive for Team Biden to show that it is a more reliable and superior alternative. Increasingly, I think that India will continue with its protectionist tendencies in trade (backing out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, just as Trump backed out of TPP) and wants to be more self reliant in weapons production.
India’s external affairs minister S Jaishankar pushed back against European pressure for India to oppose Russia’s actions in Ukraine by highlighting the fallout of the chaotic withdrawal of Western powers from Afghanistan and their silence on challenges to the rules-based order in Asia.
“When the rules-based order was under challenge in Asia, the advice we got from Europe is do more trade. At least we’re not giving you that advice,” the Indian minister said. “In terms of Afghanistan, please show me which part of the rules-based order justified what the world did there.”
2. The EU and America must take a more aggressive and sophisticated diplomatic approach than that taken with regards to India on the issue of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This includes isolation of Russia, but also demonstrating and highlighting Russian bad faith, and utilising information to counter disinformation that attempts to create confusion and garner support in India.
3. IMO, India’s external affairs minister acknowledged the Ukraine conflict is the dominant issue in terms of principles and values as well as practical consequences, such as higher energy prices, food inflation, and various disruptions across Asia and Africa. He added, “there is really nobody who wants to see this conflict. There will be no winners out of this conflict,” he said. “Our position is that we all have to find some way of returning to diplomacy and dialogue. And to do that, the fighting must stop.”
(a) Jaishankar should tell us how to end the war in Ukraine. Spell out India’s concrete strategy for convincing Putin to quit his invasion of Ukraine. No flowery abstract language about peace, love and Kumbaya. Putin doesn't listen to such Indian speech or language.
(b) Asking nicely doesn't work when victory is a Russian aim. This is being approached very differently in Ukraine than in Syria. In other words, India’s external affairs minister speaks of an impossibility — a return to diplomacy — what he means freezing conflict on grounds gained Russia via the surrender of Ukraine —when an Indian minister talks of going the diplomatic route.
(c) Ukraine’s not going to surrender when they defeated the Russian Army in 1 of 4 axis of advance conducted by the Russians. It also makes no sense for Kyiv to accept terms dictated by Russia, when it is still able to fight at day 60 or more in the Russian-Ukraine war of 2022.
4. For the Indians the world revolves around them. 26 ships and 1 submarine are sailing together to mark the culmination of the 11th edition of the India-led MILAN multi-nation naval exercise held at Visakhapatnam; with the sea phase from Mar 1-4. Themed "Camaraderie – Cohesion – Collaboration", MILAN 2022 comprises professional exchanges ashore and naval exercises at sea.
5. During the harbour phase of Exercise Milan 2022, Singapore Navy’s Deputy Fleet Commander,
Colonel Ng Xun Xi, spoke at the International Maritime Seminar — a platform to exchange ideas on common maritime priorities and challenges faced by navies. In his speech, he highlighted the importance of collaboration in tackling transboundary threats. "These threats have the ability to disrupt the global economy. They are transboundary in nature and can take place across a vast expanse in the maritime area of operations, it is usually challenging for one nation to be able to deal with them alone, and therefore necessitates countries to work together to tackle these threats."
6. Very clearly, India’s national interest is to remain neutral or aligned to Russian interests — which is a sign that America’s Indo-Pacific strategy may fail. Keeping in mind:
(a) the IAF needs the Russians more than the Russians need them, having recently inducted the first Su-30MKI squadron at the Thanjavur airbase in Tamil Nadu (which are armed with the BrahMos cruise missiles); and
(b) the Indian Army’s selection of the AK-203 designed to chamber 7.62×39mm cartridge. This means no commonality with NATO standards. Alexander Mikheev, Director General of Rosoboronexport, said manufacturing of the AK-203 rifles at the plant in Uttar Pradesh was likely to begin in mid-2022 and reach full scale production within 2-3 years — these are to be manufactured by Indo-Russian Rifles Private Ltd (IRRPL). IRRPL was set up jointly between with erstwhile OFB [now Advanced Weapons and Equipment India Limited (AWEIL) and Munitions India Limited (MIL)] of India and Rosoboronexport (RoE) and Kalashnikov of Russia.