Indo Pacific strategy

[OPSSG]

Singapore must draw the correct lessons from that dark chapter in our history, so that we can face today's challenge against a different threat from extremist organisations, one that threatens the security of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and the region. Right now, the policy is to collaborate and share intelligence with our neighbours against this common threat. In the last decade it was Al-Qaeda and now it is ISIS — on 7 Jan 2021, Abu Bakar Bashir, the Islamic extremist accused of masterminding the Bali bombings, was released from an Indonesian prison. Keeping in mind that in 2014, Bashir swore allegiance to the "Islamic State" terror group.

On 10 March 2015, Singapore unveiled a permanent memorial on the 50th anniversary of the bombing of MacDonald House as a way to mark the events that happened during Konfrontasi, to remember its victims, and educate the young about our past. During Konfrontasi, many innocent lives were destroyed in more than 40 acts of sabotage and violence on our soil but the worst attack took place on 10 March 1965. A bomb planted by two Indonesian saboteurs exploded there. That particular act of terror killed three innocent civilians and injured 33 others.

Until that ship is decommissioned, Singapore cannot be sure of TNI AL’s intent to commit acts of terror against civilians. Therefore, as long as that TNI AL ship is not decommissioned, I feel the need to remind Indonesians of the criminal acts of the TNI AL.

An alternative to reminders is HADR aid and support for areas where there is an active insurgency in Indonesia.

Thank you for your sharing. Not many know about this including myself. I can understand why there is a different in handling this compared to the earlier case. For the earlier case, there is a need for accountability on the lost of innocent lives, which is a much serious case compared to illegal own/ usage of pyrotechnics (I assumed).

Given that a band of 400 students sacked the Singapore embassy in Jakarta, Indonesia and the residences of Singapore diplomats, after the hanging of the two murderers, Osman Bin Haji Mohamed Ali and Harun Bin Said, I believe that the decision by the Singapore Government to pardon Krofan and Andea is a mistake.

The two criminals were hanged on 17 Oct 1968, and it led to a souring of diplomatic relations between Singapore and Indonesia as they were regarded in Indonesia as war heroes. The incident at the Singapore embassy showed that the Indonesian government does not respect the sovereignty of Singapore embassy grounds. No amount of flexibility shown would be good enough. Therefore, no flexibility should be shown. It is wrong for a government to over-rule a decision of the judiciary.

During Konfrontasi, men from 1 SIR and 2 SIR were deployed to Johor and East Malaysia to fight the saboteurs. They fought bravely, but not all made it home. Nine of our soldiers from 2 SIR were killed while many were injured during operations in southern Johor — not only were the 9 soldiers from 2 SIR killed, their bodies were desecrated by the enemy.

With our regular soldiers involved in operations away from home, ordinary Singaporeans stepped forward to take on the responsibility of homeland defence. When the Vigilante Corps was started in 1964, more than 10,000 stepped forward within two months, to play their part in defending Singapore. The Singapore Volunteer Corps, the Singapore Naval Volunteer Force, and the Vigilante Corps, joined the Police in patrolling our waters and protecting our streets to guard against sabotage.

 

[Ananda]

I try to write some aspects on Konfrontasi and Usman-Harun from Indonesian perspective. I'm not trying to defend anything, but try to shown what's the Indonesian perspective. This I got from reading on several old article and some documentation, which may not all available online.

On the matter of Konfrontasi or Dwikora in Indonesia:

1. At beginning what Soekarno want was for North Borneo has chance to get their self determination. Not this coming from democratically perspective, that's not Soekarno. However since he's convince the leftist and revolutionary movement especially in Serawak and Brunai (that close to him) can turn the tide.
2. When he got impression that Tunku (which at beginning actually not really convince on adding North Borneo to Malayan state), follow British pressure on including North Borneo to Malaysia. Soekarno ego as he see himself as the champion spreading anti colonial revolutionary movement in South East Asia, put him declaring Dwikora and put Indonesia on Konfrontasi path.
3. This move got enthusiasts support from Indonesian Communist (PKI) and Leftist. However the Generals in Army not really enthusiasts. They don't see the point on that for Indonesia interest. It's different with Papua confrontation, which many see as Indonesian rights as inheritor of Dutch East Indies. This later on become part of reason why PKI make a move to Army Generals.
4. The Army Generals especially Nasution seems doesn't support involvement of Indonesia Regular with Borneo Konfrontasi. The Generals wants only to train and armed North Borneo leftist and revolutionary. When they're not working as Soekarno hope, Him being the Dictator at that time push the Generals to send and accompanying North Borneo volunteers to do infiltration. Soekarno hope those infiltration can be used as tools to shown International community on North Borneo natives insurrection to oppose British design Malaysia.
5. As the Konfrontasi in Borneo not progressing as he's hoping for. He begin to push Military to broaden the front toward Malayan Peninsula. Soekarno and people around him convince that the British, Australian and NZ build up in Malaysian Peninsula were actually preparation for invading Sumatra eastern coast, to secure Malacca Strait. Thus some people around him convince Soekarno that it's Indonesia rights to do Infiltration to Malayan Peninsula and Singapore to disrupt infrastructure and community living as preemptively move. This to disrupt British, Australia and NZ preparations to invade Eastern Coast of Sumatra.

I put those as background to shown why many in Indonesian (especially in the 60's) see Usman and Harun as National Hero. Soekarno is good orator and very charismatic on convincing people. Many in Indonesia at that time saw those infiltration as part of necessary action to disrupt British Comenwealth preparation on Invading Sumatra. Many convince British intentions to take over Malacca Strait. So eventough there's no war declaration yet, but many in Indonesia believe it's just matter of time.

That's why even after Soekarno fell, Soeharto still in the pressure to try to save all infiltrators that still in jail, especially in death row. From my understanding from several article and documentation that I read, Adam Malik as Soeharto Foreign Minister infact understand why Usman and Harun need to be executed. As their bombing kill Civilian.

However Adam Malik try to convince Singapore authority to do it in silence, no media coverage, thus it can reduce tensions back in Jakarta. In 1968, Soeharto is not really in full control yet. There's still significant Soekarno loyalist that try to find excuse to bring him down, and reverse the leftist and revolutionary fortune in Indonesian Politics. This is also that Adam Malik try to convince Singapore authority, that no good will come to Singapore and Malaysia if Soekarno loyalist regain control.

What Soeharto and Adam Malik want's that some of infiltrators in death row being released. For Usman and Harun, if Singapore still want to execute, then do it in silence. Indonesia retrieve the bodies and Soeharto regime will give them proper burial. After that they (the regime) will have more leverage to closing down the episode quietly.

Soeharto Turun Tangan, Ini Upaya Menolong Usman Harun dari Gantungan

Usman dan Harun dieksekusi mati pihak Singapura setelah terbukti mengebom hotel MacDonald pada 10 Maret 1965. Pemerintah Indonesia tak tinggal diam kala itu. Bahkan Presiden Soeharto ikut turun tangan.

news.detik.com

This article in Indonesia, this is officially that happen. When Singapore choose to done public execution on Usman and Harun, all I can see that Soeharto regime has no choice to let some steam loose. Including those youths ransacked Singapore embassy and Ambassador resident. Not I'm try to give excuse, but the way I see it in 1968, as he's not in full control yet (he's practically able to consolidate his power by early 70's in sidelining all Soekarno loyalist), he has no choice.

The episode of Usman Harun supposedly close in 1973, when Lee Kuan Yew put flowers in their grave. In many Indonesian establishment thinking is that, Singapore got what they want by executing both of them. However Lee Kuan Yew (thus Singapore) also understand for Indonesia both of them still consider as hero.

In fact after Soeharto fall and down the line into 21st century, many in Indonesian public already forgot who're Usman and Harun. Now again, I'm not trying to defend Navy decision to name one of their Corvette as Usman Harun. However many in Indonesian establishment also perplexed why this become big deal in Singapore.

Like I put it above, Indonesian Political establishment believe that by Lee Kuan Yew put flowers in their grave, Singapore already understand that Indonesia accept their execution, but also Singapore understand and accept in Indonesia they're still consider as hero.

Singaporean and Malaysian will see them as 'terorist'. However many in Indonesia see them as soldiers doing preemptive move to disrupt Comenwealth coming invasion toward Sumatra. Again it's not try to defend any view, but this shown how different is the perspective even until now.

Thus when the Navy name the ship as Usman Harun and Singapore put strong condemnation on that move. Most Political establishment including PDIP (as SBY opposition that time) support the move. PDIP which think themselves as Soekarno inheritor, even lauded the move as shown Indonesia acknowledge on Konfrontasi hero.

I conclude my post that, after close to 60 years, Konfrontasi still can be a thorn toward Indonesia relationship with either Singapore or Malaysia. Indonesia must except how Singaporean and Malaysian still see those infiltrators as criminals. However Singapore and Malaysia must also accept that Indonesia will see them as National Hero.

We can argue the morals on that. However it's also see each other perspective. Indonesia during Konfrontasi did believe and convince, the War and Invasion from British Comenwealth toward Sumatra is just matter of time. While Singaporean and Malaysian believe that the Comenweath force only there to protect Malaysia and Singapore from Indonesian invasion.

Thus as long as there's still different on perspective in either side, common understanding on what happens during Konfrontasi will always be different view.

 

[Lone Ranger]

I try to write some aspects on Konfrontasi and Usman-Harun from Indonesian perspective.

@Ananda, appreciates your sharing from Indonesian perspective. Knowing and accepting one's POV is one thing, respecting one's feeling is another. We can understand if a monument, a camp, a base, a building, a street or etc, is named after Usman-Harun, this is the right of Indonesia. However, naming a warship (after Usman-Harun) it will be a total different story, especially on one that has close proximity as well as close political and military relationship, with Indonesia, on both personal and working level.

This brings to the questions of;
1) what was the intended message TNI would like to send to its neighbors, especially Singapore?
2) how are our people and ship/s going to receive KRI Usman Harun?

To make thing worst, TNI AL had 2 Marines who looked like Usman & Harun appearing at the Jakarta International Defence Dialogue. I will put it bluntly, no one likes to have salt added to their wound, especially fresh wound.

We can have different perspective on an historical event, but can we embrace this differences and respect one another? IMO, there is still room for improvement.

 

[Ananda]

This brings to the question of;
1) what is the intended message TNI sending to its neighbors, especially Singapore?
2) how are our people and ship/s going to receive KRI Usman Harun?

I can only see based on my assessment, thus I could be wrong. However as I have put in my post, most of Political establishment in Jakarta doesn't think it's going to be a problem. Basically since they see that the matter of Usman-Harun already close in 1973 with Lee Kuan Yew visit to their grave. I read their thinking was that Singapore already got what they want, but they also understand that Usman-Harun is considered hero in Indonesia (all back to perspective during Konfrontasi).

From what I can read and summarize based on some media comment from those in Political establishment: We understand Singapore still see them as Criminals or perhaps Terrorist, however in 1973 Lee Kuan Yew also already see that those two are considered hero in here. Thus naming a ship base on hero is just another normal thing.

To make thing worst, TNI AL had 2 Marines who looked like Usman & Harun appearing in at the Jakarta International Defence Dialogue. I will put it bluntly, no one likes to have "salt" added to their wound, especially fresh wound.

That's about it. Some in Navy and especially Marines don't see it as put 'salt' in the wound. As should the Navy and Marines should be more sensitive before sending their name for proposition to Administration to name a warship? Well informally I can see this as debateble or TNI circle. I have High School friends that during 2014 already in Mid Rank Officer in the Army. When I ask him on the opinion in TNI circle on the matter, he says some in Army and Air Force think that the Navy should put more study on potential problem on naming the ship. However he also says that the Marines were Keen to have Marines hero being naming as Warships, but he's also did not understand why must be them.

Is there sinister/arrogant move toward Singapore from Navy and Marines establishment when they propose the name? Well I can't omitted the possibility, I can only say it's probable.
However I can also say the rest of Political establishment and even the other services in TNI perhaps more on thinking, it should not be a matter. Seems the other didn't have sinister/arrogance motive or points of 'beef' toward Singapore, they simply didn't think it's going to be a problem, due they feel the matter has been close in 1973.

However when it's blow up in media, the Political establishment seems close rank (even the opposition) on saying it's normal to name Hero as warships. Could this be handled more discreetly before it's blowing up in media? Perhaps, it can be yes it can be no.

If this happen during Soeharto era, then perhaps Lee Kuan Yew can just call Soeharto and try to resolve it between both of them. However since Soeharto was not in power anymore, and this's already blow up in media, the Administration has no choice to keep going or they can be perceived weak/push over by their opposition.

All I can say is, perhaps the Political establishment has learn on this. However they don't have luxury to back track what already been done. Change the ship name from Usman-Harun to other name, simply not something anyone in Political establishment want to risk.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Thank you gentlemen for sharing these informative posts!

So although attacking civil targets is wrong, the navy just use the names of the two marines, because they died for their country, its not with the intention to upset a neighbour, there is no reason to do that.

Because of that it is incorrectly to make statements like that the Indonesian navy still have the wish to commit terrorist attacks in Singapore.

 

[CheeZe]

the navy just use the names of the two marines, because they died for their country, its not with the intention to upset a neighbour, there is no reason to do that.

I think you need to re-read @Ananda's post, particularly the excerpt below. While his story is anecdotal evidence, if accepted as true, then officers in other branches questioned the propriety of the Navy's naming decision. Which then goes back to why them? Why honor them specifically. I can disagree all I want about why I think Indonesians are wrong to view them as heroes but that's a moot point. So, it then becomes a question of why not other national heroes who would be less controversial with the neighours.

The apology given to Singapore was "We're sorry, we can't change the name of the ship." Not a "We're sorry this has offended you. To improve relations and cooperation, we will do something about it." That's essentially a non-apology since it doesn't resolve anything publicly. Maybe something happened behind the scenes, but until and unless that's revealed, laymen like me have to use public information to analyse and judge.

Link: TNI chief clarifies apology + TNI tak pernah mintaa maaf pada Singapura (archive.org)

it is incorrectly to make statements like that the Indonesian navy still have the wish to commit terrorist attacks in Singapore.

When you are a little country paranoid of its neighbours' maybe hostile intents, I disagree. To disregard the purposeful naming of that ship would be a grave national security oversight. It's the same reason why a lot of people I know paid attention to the naming of the Izumo-class carrier Kaga. No one thinks that Kaga is going to attack Hawai'i anytime soon, but it does hint that the JMSDF is becoming more overt in its emulation of its predecessor. When coupled with the growing revisionist and nationalist tendencies in Japan, one must question why name a carrier Kaga instead of say, Inaba or Echigo (other defunct provincial names). The point is - ships' names are very deliberate decisions and unless that decision is explained, controversial names will be questioned and criticized.

I have High School friends that during 2014 already in Mid Rank Officer in the Army. When I ask him on the opinion in TNI circle on the matter, he says some in Army and Air Force think that the Navy should put more study on potential problem on naming the ship. However he also says that the Marines were Keen to have Marines hero being naming as Warships, but he's also did not understand why must be them.

Is there sinister/arrogant move toward Singapore from Navy and Marines establishment when they propose the name? Well I can't omitted the possibility, I can only say it's probable.
However I can also say the rest of Political establishment and even the other services in TNI perhaps more on thinking, it should not be a matter. Seems the other didn't have sinister/arrogance motive or points of 'beef' toward Singapore, they simply didn't think it's going to be a problem, due they feel the matter has been close in 1973.

 

[OPSSG]

Part 1 of 5: Biden’s new sheriff & diplomat have arrived

1. In Oct 2919, Prabowo was inaugurated as Indonesia's Minister of Defense but has he used his time in office well?

2. With a new US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, confirmed by the US Senate in Jan 2021, Indonesia (under Prabowo’s leadership) has a chance to turnover a new leaf and really keep up with regional defence procurement dynamics and with capable partners (like Australia, Singapore or Japan) but only if the country decides to seize this chance soon.

3. A risk associated with a failure to invest in high-end naval and air combat platforms would be that both TNI AL and TNI AU would lose its opportunity to gain interoperability with potential allies and partners. If Indonesia’s air force and navy are unable to make a meaningful contribution to international operational efforts in CTF-151 (after having her citizens kidnapped by Iran on the high seas) or lead ADMM Plus exercises in the South China Sea, which external organisation would take ASEAN and its leader seriously?

4. We should take note of the new Chinese law allows the Chinese Coast Guard to “take all necessary measures, including the use of weapons when national sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction are being illegally infringed upon by foreign organisations or individuals at sea.” This means Indonesian fishermen are subject to Chinese laws; and unless they are present 24/7, the TNI AL cannot stop the implementation of these Chinese laws in West Natuna waters.

5. Any intention by Indonesia to change its maritime security focus would need careful consultation with key partners, in particular, Australia, Singapore, Japan and the US. Without interoperability with Australia, Singapore and others, future Indonesian Governments may have to make the choices that the Philippines have today under Duterte. Be a vassal state or a client state of China.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1355464993806815234

6. While the quote from the Indonesian staff college paper says: “China's military threat to Indonesia's sovereignty in the Natuna Islands and their surroundings is *highly imminent* given their military capabilities and intention in the Spratlys,"what does highly imminent mean?

 

[aviation_enthus]

Any intention by Indonesia to change its maritime security focus would need careful consultation with key partners, in particular, Australia, Singapore, Japan and the US. Without interoperability with Australia, Singapore and others, future Indonesian Governments may have to make the choices that the Philippines have today under Duterte. Be a vassal state or a client state of China.

As you’ve stated, Indonesia has a very important role to play in SE Asia. If both the Philippines and Indonesia are weak militarily, it allows other countries to exploit their geography to the detriment of surrounding nations. Australia in particular should be doing what they can (within the bounds of diplomacy/respecting sovereignty) to assist and strengthen the various countries in SE Asia. China is becoming an expert in the area of “soft power”. It will require a group effort to counter this strength.

While the quote from the Indonesian staff college paper says: “China's military threat to Indonesia's sovereignty in the Natuna Islands and their surroundings is *highly imminent* given their military capabilities and intention in the Spratlys,"what does highly imminent mean?

I’d read that as “China has an imminent ability to do what they want in Indonesian waters”

Which IMHO ties into your (and others) concerns about Indonesia’s procurement of military capabilities.

 

[Ananda]

China's military threat to Indonesia's sovereignty in the Natuna Islands and their surroundings is *highly imminent* given their military capabilities and intention in the Spratlys,"what does highly imminent mean?

From what I can gather from informal information, also from forums and Media. The thinking is when/if the LCS getting hot (Taiwan invasion will be one the scenario), then China will try to consolidate their control on SCS. Natuna is the choke point of SCS. Thus it's logical move from China to pacified Natuna.

...in Jan 2021, Indonesia (under Prabowo’s leadership) has a chance to turnover a new leaf and really keep up with regional defence procurement dynamics and with capable partners (like Australia, Singapore or Japan) but only if the country decides to seize this chance soon.

Yes, it's seems this what drive for Rafale and Frigates with either Euro suppliers or Japan. It's also part of drives to get second hand Frigates or second hand Fighters as part to fill the gap, since MinDef calculate that new build Frigates, Submarines or Fighters will not be enough to fill the gap.

This COVID situation as I have mentioned on Indonesian thread seems put some barriers for immediate action. In other Indonesian related forums, they put French TV interview with Dassault executive on Rafale export. The executive point out that the finalisation deal got delay due to Covid. However he seems confidence able to close it soon.

Dassault Aviation: les discussions avec l'Indonésie "suspendues" à cause du Covid

Invité de BFM Business ce mardi soir, le PDG de Dassault s'est dit prêt à reprendre les discussions avec l'Indonésie dès que la "problématique Covid" sera levée.

www.bfmtv.com

There's 'senses of potential crisis in hand' with both Prabowo and Jokowi to beef up the defense. However there's also people in Political circle that try to keep engaging China with more Investment. At the same time Indonesia also not to keen with China Road and Belt initiative as compared to Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. Indonesia seems also try to keep Japan as balance to China. The new Patimban port in North Coast of Java is very strategic projects, and it's been given to Japan. The biggest Chinese 'belt' Investment in Infrastructure is the high speed rain between Jakarta to Bandung. However similar but longer high speed train project between Jakarta to Surabaya seems indicating will go to Japan.

Just like electric car battery project, China got one, so does Korean. They also try to get Tesla on board. The nickel ore Smelter project also being divide between China and Korean with also try to get US Tesla bring other US investor in there.

All this shown there's push within Political circle to balance China Investment. Japan for one thing doesn't want to lose influence in Indonesia that they have spend 50 years to build, loosing to China. So far with this indication, I don't see Jokowi's administration will follow Duterte falling to China's much influence. I have many miss givings toward Jokowi's administration, however falling to China's as much as Duterte seems not on that.

 

[OPSSG]

Part 2 of 5: Biden’s new sheriff & diplomat have arrived

@Ananda, the rot in Indonesian military procurement is so deeply ingrained that there are no fast and easy solutions. Not only is there insufficient funds for the MEF but what funds Indonesia has allocated is not put to optimum use. One of the various issues is the part the local industry plays under the illusion of Indonesian self sufficiency, when it is a local work share issue.

I’d read that as “China has an imminent ability to do what they want in Indonesian waters”

Which IMHO ties into your (and others) concerns about Indonesia’s procurement of military capabilities.

7. I like that read. China is flexing its muscles through its white ships around the Natuna Islands (about 570km from Singapore).

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1349674526485827585

8. In multiple calls and statements, Biden and his top security officials have underscored support for allies Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, signalling Washington's rejection of China's disputed territorial claims in those areas. The PLA flew about 380 sorties into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in 2020, a defense ministry statement said. Taiwan’s ADIZ is being tested almost on a daily basis with as many as 15 Chinese aircraft in a single day. As China's military power tilts the military balance in the Taiwan Strait toward Beijing, analysts say the near-normalization of the Chinese military’s constant threats are aimed at subduing Taipei through exhaustion.

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(a) When Lloyd Austin spoke with Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi on 23 Jan 2021, he “affirmed that the Senkaku islands are covered by Article V of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, and that the United States remains opposed to any unilateral attempts to change the status quo in the East China Sea.” If even Japanese need American reassurance with their powerful JMSDF, what more Indonesia.​

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(b) State Department spokesman Ned Price also warned China about menacing Taiwan after it repeatedly sent more than a dozen military fighters and bombers through the island's air defense zone. "We will stand with friends and allies to advance our shared prosperity security and values in the Indo-Pacific region - and that includes deepening our ties with Democratic Taiwan," Price said in a statement.​

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1349121983913598979

(c) Former senior State Department official Kurt Campbell will join the Biden administration with the title of "Indo-Pacific coordinator," a job that will give him broad management over the NSC directorates that cover various parts of Asia and China-related issues. Campbell will report directly to National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. The Biden NSC will have several of these "coordinators," who will have more authority than the "senior directors" below them, according to the newspaper. Reporting to Campbell is Laura Rosenberger, as the senior director for Indo-Pacific policy at the NSC. Reporting to Rosenberger is Rush Doshi, as director at the NSC.​

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(d) These appointments, moves and statements at the State Department, NSC, and DoD levels, are calculated to reassure nervous Asian allies that the Biden administration is taking the China challenge seriously, according to The Washington Post. There is no lack of talent or breath of bench strength in Biden’s State, NSC or DoD. “Taiwan is also quite partisan and divided. Yet there has been an ability for people to come together to deal with the threat to their health even as they continue to disagree on other issues,” Bonnie Glaser explained in a CSIS published a report that highlights Taiwan's experience dealing with disinformation campaigns from China. “That’s where I think maybe there are some lessons for the U.S."​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1354484112694902784

9. Likewise on 28 Jan 2021, US President Biden gave an assurance on Article V of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty to Japanese Prime Minister Suga. Secretary Lloyd Austin has said that he sees China as the pacing threat for the US. The Indo-Pacific must be the focus of the department.

(a) "I know I'll need your help in tackling these problems and to give our men and women in uniform the tools that they need to fight and win," he said.​

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(b) During Austin’s confirmation hearing he said his most immediate challenge will be the coronavirus pandemic. "If confirmed, I will quickly review the department's contributions to coronavirus relief efforts, ensuring that we're doing everything that we can to help distribute vaccines across the country and to vaccinate our troops and preserve readiness," he said.​

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10. The big stick that Secretary Lloyd Austin carries is no longer CVN 76 (the US Navy’s forward deployed aircraft carrier) or LHAs/LPDs loaded with US Marines from III MEF, important as they are. Rather, the big stick is found in ideas; ideas like EABO, NMESIS or Gen. Mark Kelly’s Air Combat Command (ACC) that is building capability for multidomain operations; including the ACC’s assumption of cyber responsibilities and the integration of the necessary capabilities to create both the nonkinetic effects and the traditional tool set of kinetic weapons and airpower.

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(a) Gen. James Dickinson, SPACECOM commander elaborated during his conversation with Mitchell Institute Dean Dave Deptula that SPACECOM now has three primary missions: “One, our enduring, no-fail mission to enable warfighting operations in other domains. Two, our future mission as global SATCOM manager and global sensor manager. And three, our current new mission set compelling us to fight and win in the space domain in order to protect and defend our interests there. Previously, the old US Air Force Space Command (which is now a command in the U.S. Space Force, with its US$15.5 billion annual budget)—held the responsibility for the service’s Cyber Mission — this capability for cyber, ISR and weather is NOW found in a reactivated Numbered Air Force (NAF), of which the 16th Air Force is the latest reactivation.​

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(b) ACC has also started to combine parts of the 9th and the 12th Air Forces under the hat of the 15th Air Force — to face the enemy (playing a similar role as the 7th Fleet as first to fight for the US Navy). Supported by cyber, ISR and weather capabilities of the 16th Air Force, the 15th Air Force (that commands fighter wings that include F-22s, F-35As, F-15Es, and ISR assets like the MQ-9A Reapers, RQ-170A Sentinels and E-3G Sentry), has become more capable. Since Oct 2009, RQ-170A Sentinels have been deployed to Kunsan Air Base in South Korea through elements of secretive 30th Reconnaissance Squadron of the US Air Force.​

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(c) The new US Marine littoral regiment is stood up to counter Beijing’s militarisation of its South China Sea islands (where it has built air bases), with a focus on rapid deployability, fire power and a measure of self-contained capability. Additional US Marine Littoral Regiments may be based in Japan and Guam, but the first Hawaii-based unit is expected to have 1,800 to 2,000 US Marines carved out mainly from units already there, including one of three infantry battalions at Kaneohe Bay, according to Maj. Joshua Benson.​

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(d) Under this concept, the US Marine Corps will use expeditionary advanced base operations (EABO) to distribute highly mobile Marines across Pacific islands and arm them with advanced missiles that can aid the US Navy by sinking ships in contested choke points. “The Marine Corps is at an inflection point, and we must change,” said Commandant Gen. David Berger. “In a way, it’s a counter to China putting bases in the South China Sea”. “We may not have enough ships to cover the ground, but we have enough firepower and a concept to cover that ocean.”​

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(e) The 3 year setup plan for the Littoral Regiment foresees the use of the Navy Marine expeditionary ship interdiction system (NMESIS), with Naval Strike Missiles using joint light tactical vehicles, and unmanned vehicles to conduct A2AD against the PLA(N).​

 

[Ananda]

the rot in Indonesian military procurement is so deeply ingrained that there are no fast and easy solutions. Not only is there insufficient funds for the MEF but what funds Indonesia has allocated is not put to optimum use. One of the various issues is the part the local industry plays under the illusion of Indonesian self sufficiency, when it is a local work share issue.

Yes it is, and I also point this out in Indonesian thread. I put that in those thread to put reality check to some Indonesian that read this forums. My post is also not to give 'dream' of Indonesia will change its procurement practice. Indonesia defense procurement practice as I have said in Indonesian threads still influence by Political opportunity, lack of coherent long term planning and most of all influence by 'projects' thinking.

On the other hand Prabowo's also already mentioned in media and with Parliament that Indonesia Political circles must understand also the limitations of National Defense complex in Indonesia that still lack in capacity and technology wise, even compared to some in neighborhood. However you're right to point out on the phrase 'Self Sufficience'. This can be misslead, since many Defense Industry projects actually still work as license Manufacturing or just as 'Agent'.

This as I've mentioned in Indonesian thread. There's always the conflict between Political stance in the policy of defense self sufficient and the need to close the defense gap capabilities soon. In sense if I can make comparison, Indonesia have similar (eventough in much less scale) with problem in India defense planning and procurement. The need for self sufficient and the need to plan and close the defense gap effective and optimally.

I also see some of defense plan that current MinDef try to bring, which until Politically Indonesia have will to provide more Investment fund, will have hard time to sell in public for the amount of fund needed. Those kind of tweet that you have posted, in my opinion is part of 'public' sell to gain support for more defense Investment. Until now there're still some Economics including few of my seniors that still not convinced on Chinese potential threat.

 

[OPSSG]

Part 3 of 5: Biden’s new sheriff & diplomat have arrived

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1354389066381467650

11. The Shangri-La Dialogue will resume from 4 Jun to 6 Jun 2021, in Singapore. Small states within ASEAN and the host of IISS dialogue, is looking for face time (and some reassurance that the issues are understood) from Biden’s new sheriff, Lloyd Austin — hopefully he will be joined in Singapore by:

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(a) Dr Kathleen Hicks, as Deputy Secretary of Defense. Hicks served in the Obama administration, and was confirmed by the Senate in 2012 as the principal deputy under secretary of defense for policy. In that role, Hicks was responsible for advising the under secretary of defense for policy and the secretary of defense on US national defense policy and strategy. Hicks also served as the deputy under secretary of defense for strategy, plans, and forces;​

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(b) Dr Colin Kahl as Under Secretary of Defense for Policy — to ensure the rapid development of the B-21 Raider for the USAF, the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) initiative to give back to US Navy super carriers superior strike range, a new generation of US Navy destroyers, and the upcoming Columbia-class submarine for the US Navy, hypersonic missiles, electronic warfare capabilities, precision and long-range munitions, and other leap-ahead technologies — this includes the US Army’s modernization efforts, such as, Long-Range Precision Fires, future vertical lift, missile defense, amongst 4 of the top 6 priorities. In an era of Great Power Competition, the US Army has acknowledged the unacceptable artillery range disadvantage and the need to self deploy into the Pacific for the future vertical lift. Kahl served as deputy assistant to President Barack Obama and was the NSA to Biden when he was VP from 2014 to 2017. He previously served as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East;​

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(c) Thomas W. Harker, as Acting Secretary of the US Navy (who will hopefully not surprise Singapore’s MINDEF, with Braithwaite’s unwelcome 1st Fleet announcement without consultation), James “Hondo” Geurts as Undersecretary of the US Navy, John Roth, as Acting US Air Force Secretary, and Kelli Seybolt, Deputy Under Secretary of the Air Force, International Affairs. Harker, for the last few years has served as the Department of the US Navy’s chief civilian financial official. Roth was previously the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force (Financial Management & Comptroller) since Feb 2018. In addition to working with allies, such as Japan and South Korea, the USAF’s International Affairs team under Seybolt is working to promote weapons sales and to develop deeper relationships with air forces in Australia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam; and​

​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1198229745973940224

(d) Adm. Phil Davidson, as Commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, as Commander, US Pacific Air Forces and Gen. David Berger, as Commandant of the US Marine Corps. Gen. Wilsbach criticized China for “threatening action” when U.S. military ships and aircraft approach “not even close to the 12-mile territory of China,” referring to the distance from coastlines that makes up a nation’s territorial waters under international maritime law. Gen. Berger’s concept of “distributed operations,” and the US Marine Corp’s ability to “distribute our forces ashore given the growth of adversary precision strike capabilities . . . and create the virtues of mass without the vulnerabilities of concentration.” Thus, small US Marine forces would deploy around the islands of the first island chain and the South China Sea, each element having the ability to contest the surrounding air and naval space using anti-air and antiship missiles.​

​

(e) At the top of Adm. Phil Davidson’s acquisition priority list is a US$1.6 billion Aegis Ashore missile defense system in Guam, something he has long said is his No. 1 priority. Next is a US$197 million “Tactical Multi-Mission Over-the-Horizon Radar” to be placed in Palau to detect and track air and surface targets. The Pentagon has forged a closer relationship with the small island nation in the Philippine Sea, which provides a strategic location coveted by Pentagon planners as the US looks to expand its footprint in the region.​

 

[OPSSG]

Part 4 of 5: Biden’s new sheriff & diplomat have arrived

12. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, has indicated that President Joe Biden will continue with the policies of the Trump administration vis a vis China, including issues related to the maritime disputes over Beijing's assertiveness in the South China Sea, the Indo-Pacific and the strategic approach to step up defence ties with the Quad member countries. America’s top diplomats to the United Nations (U.N.), will be Linda Thomas-Greenfield and Jeffrey Prescott, who will serve as the US ambassador and deputy ambassador to the United Nations, after their confirmation process — Thomas-Greenfield cited concern with the operations of U.N. agencies, including the pressure placed on Israel by some human rights bodies and Chinese efforts to expand their U.N. influence. She explained that participation in the international system is key to countering this influence.

13. Staff reporting to Blinken at the State Department are:

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(a) Wendy Sherman as deputy secretary of state and Victoria Nuland as undersecretary of state for political affairs — the second- and third-highest ranking posts at the State department, respectively.​

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(b) Suzy George, as Blinken's chief of staff; and Ned Price, a former Obama administration NSC staffer and career CIA official (who resigned in protest in the early days of the Trump administration), as State Department spokesman.​

14. Blinken also underscored India's role as a pre-eminent US partner in the Indo-Pacific and the importance of working together to expand the regional cooperation, including through the Quad.

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1355178732294598657

(a) The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said Jaishankar and Blinken appreciated the robust defence and security ties, growing economic engagement, productive health-care collaboration and strong people-to-people linkages between the two nations.​

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(b) The Biden administration began formal engagement with top Indian leaders on with Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and NSA Jake Sullivan holding telephonic conversation with their Indian counterparts, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and NSA Ajit Doval. To led teeth to talks, 270 US soldiers were flown to Mahajan Field Firing Range where the 16th edition of a joint military exercise with the Indian Army (from 8 Feb to 21 Feb 2021) will be held, Indian Defence spokesperson Lt Col Amitabh Sharma said. Exercise Yudh-Abhyas will enable the armies of India and USA will jointly plan, and train to support the neutralization of threats up to brigade level.​

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(c) India's MEA called for upholding the rule of law and democratic process. "We have noted the developments in Myanmar with deep concern. India has always been steadfast in its support to the process of democratic transition in Myanmar. We believe that the rule of law and the democratic process must be upheld. We are monitoring the situation closely," it said.​

15. Blinken made a series of telephone calls to his counterparts in the Phillipines, Thailand and Australia, the US state department, said in a statement.

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(a) The state department said, in his call to the Australian foreign minister Marise Payne: “Secretary Blinken emphasized the importance of cooperation, including through multilateral organizations and mechanisms like the Quad, to tackle shared challenges such as climate change, COVID-19, and global health security.”​

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(b) With regard to the military coup led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in Myanmar, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on 31 Jan 2021 said the US expressed "grave concern and alarm" over reports of the detention of government officials and civil society leaders. "We call on Burmese military leaders to release all government officials and civil society leaders and respect the will of the people of Burma as expressed in democratic elections on Nov 8," he said. Hours after the coup and widely reported on mainstream media on 1 Feb 2021, the Tatmadaw declared a one-year state of emergency, using as a pretext the NLD government’s alleged failure to act on its claims of “terrible fraud”. It also pledged new elections, but did not provide a time frame.​

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(c) On 27 Jan 2021, US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken also spoke with Teodoro Locsin and reaffirmed that a strong U.S.-Philippine Alliance is vital to a free and open Indo-Pacific region. Secretary Blinken stressed the importance of the Mutual Defense Treaty for the security of both nations, and its clear application to armed attacks against the Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft in the Pacific, which includes the South China Sea.​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1355313610990383104

16. The "Davos" summit, which is normally held in the Swiss alpine town of Davos, has been shifted to Singapore (to be held from 17-20 Aug 2021), over concerns about the spread of Covid-19 in Europe. Diplomats and staff from the Biden administration and China may meet at the World Economic Forum’s to be held in Aug 2021.

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(a) Singapore PM Lee Hsien Loong spoke on 29 Jan 2021, where he said that U.S.-China ties remains "the most important bilateral relationship for the world in the years ahead". "The new U.S. administration is an opportunity to steer the relationship towards safer waters, amid President Biden's many urgent preoccupations. The U.S.-China relationship should become a key strategic priority," PM Lee said.​

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(b) Secretary of the Treasury Department, Janet Yellen and Antony Blinken’s all star teams at the Treasury and State Departments will have a chance to showcase their savvy by the World Economic Forum.​

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

The Philippines have shown interest in the purchase of the BrahMos since 2016. It was reported that negotiations were underway since 2019 regarding the procurement of two mobile batteries for the Philippine army.

And now some days ago on 2 March the governments of India and the Phillipines have signed an agreement, the main content of the agreement is the intention of the Philippines to acquire the coastal defense system version of the Brahmos.

Philippines and India sign deal paving the way for BrahMos missile procurement - Naval News

On March 2, 2021, the Philippines and India signed a government-to-government agreement on defense equipment procurement, paving the way for the sale of the Brahmos missile to the Philippines.

www.navalnews.com

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Australia requests EoIs for forward operating base on Cocos Islands for MC-55A Peregrine EW aircraft

Australia’s Department of Defence (DoD) has requested expressions of interest (EoIs) for the construction of a new airborne electronic warfare (EW)/intelligence,...

www.janes.com

The MC-55A Peregrine EW is a Gulfstream G550 aircraft modified to integrate Airborne Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance, and Electronic Warfare (AISREW) mission systems.
Australia plans to base and operate these aircrafts from the Cocos Islands, which are around 700 nm south of Indonesia.

 

[StingrayOZ]

For anyone watching the MC-55A is the based off the plane in the distance in that image (without the cheeks!). Four G550 have been built and the first two are being modified currently. They are quite long ranged aircraft, so operating from Cocos will still give them plenty of access around SCS/SEA. Cocos and Townsville will give great coverages on the approaches to the SCS, also placed placed for flights deeper into it (and possible turn around at Guam?).

Runway upgrades at Cocos should allow P8 operations and Triton flights/operations.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

For anyone watching the MC-55A is the based off the plane in the distance in that image (without the cheeks!). Four G550 have been built and the first two are being modified currently. They are quite long ranged aircraft, so operating from Cocos will still give them plenty of access around SCS/SEA. Cocos and Townsville will give great coverages on the approaches to the SCS, also placed placed for flights deeper into it (and possible turn around at Guam?).

Runway upgrades at Cocos should allow P8 operations and Triton flights/operations.

The Cocos Islands are maybe a good place for patrols over waters west of Australia, but i don't think it is a suitable place to start operations above the Spratly Sea. To reach that area the MC-55A Peregrine will have to cross Indonesian and Malaysian airspace, and i dont think these countries will be happy with foreign Airborne Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance, and Electronic Warfare (AISREW) mission aircrafts just crossing their territory.

 

[John Newman]

The Cocos Islands are maybe a good place for patrols over waters west of Australia, but i don't think it is a suitable place to start operations above the Spratly Sea. To reach that area the MC-55A Peregrine will have to cross Indonesian and Malaysian airspace, and i dont think these countries will be happy with foreign Airborne Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance, and Electronic Warfare (AISREW) mission aircrafts just crossing their territory.

Bit of clarity regarding ‘basing’.

RAAF Edinburgh, near Adelaide, is the ‘home’ base for P-8A, MQ-4C, MQ-9B and MC-55A, it was the former home base of the now retired AP-3C fleet (two AP-3C EW aircraft are still in service, and will retire when MC-55A enters service).

Edinburgh facilities to expand for MC-55A Peregrine | ADBR

The Commonwealth government has announced it will spend $220 million on new facilities at RAAF Base Edinburgh to accommodate the Gulfstream/L3Harris MC-55A Peregrine electronic support aircraft capability. Based on the…

adbr.com.au

Cocos Island, Darwin and Townsville are/will be ‘forward operating bases’ for the above aircraft, not home base. I would imagine that the Cocos Island FOB would be used more for operations into the Indian Ocean.

As to what Indonesia and Malaysia might think or feel about the operation of these type of aircraft in and around their airspace, let’s not forget detachments of AP-3C have operated out of RMAF Butterworth for decades.

RMAF Butterworth Air Base - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

A more detailed article on MC-55A:

Feature - PEREGRINE | ADBR

The RAAF’s MC-55A Peregrine electronic warfare support system project will soon hit a key milestone, with the delivery of the fourth and final ‘green’ Gulfstream G550 airframe to the US Air Force for modification under the Peregrine program.

adbr.com.au

Cheers,

 

[OPSSG]

Part 5 of 5: Biden’s new sheriff & diplomat have arrived

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1382711598930796544

17. Japan is top of the mind for the Americans when they think of how to manage the rise of China in the Indo-Pacific (see: Japan, US showcase alliance, resolve in dealing with China -- AP). Prime Minister SUGA Yoshihide departed for Washington DC to have his first meeting with POTUS Joe Biden on 16 Apr 2021. On this occasion, PM Suga contributed an article on @wsj, “Japan’s Path to Growth and Stability in the Pacific”.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1383191603892740099

18. President Biden told reporters after meeting on 16 Apr 2021 with Suga during the one-day summit that they affirmed their "ironclad support for the U.S.-Japanese alliance" and said they would work together to "take on the challenges from China and on issues like the East China Sea, the South China Sea, as well as North Korea;" in addition Prime Minister Suga said: “I refrain from mentioning details, since it pertains to diplomatic exchanges, but there is already an agreed recognition over the importance of peace & stability of the Taiwan Strait btw Japan & the US, which was reaffirmed on this occasion.” (See: Japan’s Suga visits for Biden’s first White House summit; China tops agenda -- Reuters)

19. The US president called the discussions "very productive" and said the United States and Japan also agreed to work together to support global COVID-19 vaccination efforts as well as to promote new technological developments, including 5G networks, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing. See also: Biden, Japan's PM focus on China, North Korea in first bilateral meeting -- The Hill

20. South Korean President Moon Jae-in is also scheduled to visit Washington D.C. in late May 2021 for summit talks with U.S. President Joe Biden at the invitation of Biden.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

The largest fleet of Royal Navy warships to deploy internationally since decades is heading to the Indo-Pacific region next month as the British government seeks to raise its presence in the Far East.


The US Navy Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS The Sullivans and the Dutch frigate Zr.Ms Evertse, will also join the British Carrier Strike Group.

British name enormous carrier strike group heading for the Indo-Pacific

The maiden deployment of a UK carrier strike group led by the Royal Navy’s new 65,000 tonne HMS Queen Elizabeth has been on the cards for months but this is the first time the MoD has detailed the destinations, ships, aircraft and submarines involved.

www.defensenews.com