And? NORAD keeps an eye on every launch, as well as tracking everything it can detect in orbit. While the capability the satellite has demonstrated is certainly interesting, one satellite would almost certainly be insufficient to inflict enough damage to a MILSAT constellation to render it ineffective.
I do not doubt that the Russian either have, or can develop an ASAT capability. The potential for a maneuvering satellite in orbit is certainly there in terms of ASAT capability, but more would IMO be required. The constellations themselves typically have something like three or four "extra" satellites for either emergency re-tasking, or to provide already orbiting replacements should an operational satellite suffer a failure. This in turn means that something like 5+ satellites in a particular constellation would need to be neutralized by some means before that specific constellation suffers a degradation in capability. To render the constellation ineffective would likely require considerably more "failures" to occur.
No one disputes this. I was not suggesting they have the capability to completely blind the US tomorrow.
What I was saying originally, was that a first strike from Russia would likely be in the form of one of the following: Cyber-attack, EMP, Special forces/hybrid warfare, surgical nuclear strike, mining of harbors, infiltrators or attacking satellites RATHER THAN the amphibious assault on Canada that the title poster suggested.
IMHO Russia has the ability or can acquire the ability (relatively quickly) to conduct all the things I suggested (Cyber-attack, EMP, Special forces/hybrid warfare, surgical nuclear strike, mining of harbours, infiltrators or attacking satellites), what they don’t have ability to do is transport multiple divisions of mechanised forces through the arctic to the Nunavut territory in Canada. Nor would this be the most intelligent method of preemptive strike.
Some or all of the things I suggested would need to occur before any Amphibious Assault.
Cyber Attack – Russia certainly has these capabilities in the military, among criminal groups and civilian volunteers. The DNI James Clapper, told the Senate Armed Services Committee this year the “Russian cyber threat is more severe than we had previously assessed”. U.S. intelligence agencies have known for years that Russia is a much more capable adversary in cyberspace than China and that Moscow employs more sophisticated and stealthier cyberattack methods
Special forces/hybrid warfare – Spetsnaz GRU, Alpha Group, Vega Group and Zaslon among many others are capable of such actions
Surgical nuclear strike – Russia has hundreds of delivery systems and thousands of warheads capable of doing this, how accurate and reliable they are, and thus how surgical this strike would be could be the subject of a long winded heated debate (something I do my very best to avoid on this forum). What is certain is they could target a number key US facilities that would degrade the capability of US forces to respond (and likely start and all out nuclear war)
Mining of Harbors – While not the mighty fleet it once was, the Russian fleet has a variety of submarines both nuclear and conventional that could mine US harbors or choke points. A number of reports have surfaced of the last couple of years of Russian submarine penetration of US waters. One that was widely reported in 2012 (how reliable this is, who knows) in the general media that an Akula-class nuclear attack submarine operated undetected in the Gulf of Mexico for weeks. Since then the more advanced Yasen-class has begun entering service
Infiltrators – Russia has been successfully infiltrating western society (all levels) since the October Revolution by the Bolsheviks and before. There are numerous cases of Russian infiltrators penetrating the highest levels of industry, government and intelligence circles in the last 100 years. There is no reason to suggest that they can’t do this now, if anything it is probably easier now with the open multicultural US society, end of the cold war and focus on terrorism.
EMP – Russia has been developing EMP weapons since the 60s. Any nuclear capable nation with an atmospheric delivery system could easily launch an EMP attack. They have also been conducting tests of Non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse (NNEMP) weapons for over 50 years. It has been reported that according to South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS), North Korea has purchased EMP weaponry from Russia. It is also worth noting that NORAD (North American Aerospace Defense Command) is this year moving back to Cheyenne Mountain because of EMP Threats.
Which brings us to ASAT
Taking out satellites
In September 1997 Russian President Boris Yeltsin wrote to President Clinton condemning U.S. efforts to build anti-satellite weapons and revealing that Moscow already has weapons capable of blasting satellites in space. A ruse? Perhaps.. but the reality exists that almost half a century ago, on Nov. 1, 1963, the Soviet Union launched Polyot-1 the first prototype of an anti-satellite system and work continued through to the 80s, while the breakup of the Soviet Union undoubtedly led to disruptions, it is almost inconceivable that they did not retain basic assets and knowledge. In 2002, when President Vladimir Putin visited Khrunichev space centre in Moscow, which built both Naryad-V and Rockot, the company's leaders reportedly assured him that the anti-satellite system had been ready for a revival. In January 2010, the commander of the Russian space forces, Oleg Ostapenko, told the official ITAR-TASS news agency that Russia would be able to respond to threats from space. "The USSR was developing inspection and strike spacecraft," Ostapenko said. There were a myriad of systems they were working on in this area, majority of which likely wouldn't work but some certainly did, they have been working on them for many years after all.
While Object 2014-28E alone could not blind the US surveillance network and its true purpose is unknown,
it could be an experimental system revived from former programs. Officially this launch only had three payloads, but now we know it had four. Begs the question?
Russia had the most orbital launches in 2014 some 34, in theory if they did a similar practice with even half of those as they did with Object 2014-28E they could potentially have 17 Anti-satellite systems in space within a year (Yes…This would definitely be noticed). The orbiting ASAT systems combined with systems launched from within the atmosphere missiles, lasers etc and hacking of satellites could knock out enough or cause enough chaos, to blind satellite surveillance for a certain area for a short amount of time.
They don’t need to take out every satellite, only degrade surveillance in a targeted area to support the particular objective, whatever that may be. Such an action could even be timed with a natural phenomenon that interferes with satellites such as solar storms to delay the response.
These capabilities are all (Cyber-attack, EMP, Special forces/hybrid warfare, surgical nuclear strike, mining of harbors, infiltrators or attacking satellites) very much feasible for the Russians in the not too distant future,
not far from reality as one poster suggested. Could they pull this off tomorrow? NO! I never said that... but they are certainly all real and present dangers, and likely indicators of major operation
Any war planner for any adversary attacking the US with conventional forces (i.e. not terrorism) knows that in order to even have a chance of being successful you need to degrade the space based surveillance. Of course these days there are UAVs in the thousands so any advantage would be quickly lost and I am certain the attacker would certainly regret their action very quickly. As it would provoke a full scale response.
While I am confident that the Russians could launch attacks in all these areas, I think the thing that would be the biggest problem for them is the C5I aspect of such an operation.
The real question is why would they?
