How Much Longer Does NATO Have?

[Feanor]

Now we're ready to dive into a discussion of Ukranian politics. Lol.

The point is however that there is no chance NATO will intervene militarily in a Russian invasion of Ukraine, should one take place, unless Ukraine is a NATO member (in which case Russia wouldn't invade in the first place). The nuclear threat is too great, The politics of the issue are too ambivalent. And the time and effort needed to coordinate a response would mean that by the time the response comes, Russia will have occupied if not all, probably most of the country.

 

[PhysicsMan]

And the time and effort needed to coordinate a response would mean that by the time the response comes, Russia will have occupied if not all, probably most of the country.

Taking into account the Ukrainian terrain - it's like a red carpet for the Russian armor, totally flat and not very forested, except in the far west of the country - this is an additional hurdle for the NATO armor to roll in, the Karpati range, complicating NATO ground engagement greatly.

But then again, this is a pure fantasy, this will more than likely never take place. A petty squabble between the countries' leaders is one thing, war is totally another. Ukrainians and Russians share more with each other culturally (with the exception of the far western Ukraine) than the New Englanders and the Texans.

 

[Feanor]

Heh. Russian armor is down to something like 2000-3000 tanks left in active service. At least by my estimate.

 

[Herodotus]

Just wondering what impact the recent (well, on-going) Ukrainian presidential elections will have on NATO? Especially if Ukraine joins the CSTO.

 

[PhysicsMan]

Just wondering what impact the recent (well, on-going) Ukrainian presidential elections will have on NATO? Especially if Ukraine joins the CSTO.

If you mean on the idea of Ukraine joining NATO, then, for all practical purposes, that idea is dead. Both candidates are running on platforms that eliminate the plan for membership from their vision of future. One is running on the idea of Ukraine being independent of any military alliances, and the other one is explicitly rejecting the bid for NATO membership and instead is promoting closer ties with Russia. Both are, actually, promoting closer ties with Russia. We can expect to see continued warm relations with US and EU with either candidate winning, most likely involving military cooperation on some formal level, but nothing like the directly anti-Russian and pro-Western foreign policy of the current government. The warm relations with the West will be based on pragmatism alone, not ideology.

 

[swerve]

Taking into account the Ukrainian terrain - it's like a red carpet for the Russian armor, totally flat and not very forested, except in the far west of the country - this is an additional hurdle for the NATO armor to roll in, the Karpati range, complicating NATO ground engagement greatly.....

How does the Carpathian range get between Poland & Ukraine?

 

[kato]

Poland doesn't have any highways leading into Ukraine (yet). The A4 only extends from the German border to a bit behind Katowice so far, with about 50 km being under construction, and 200 km still missing. The D1 highway in Slovakia (through the Carpathes) is far more "usable", with 100 km under construction and another 100 km missing.

 

[swerve]

But there are lesser roads across the border, & railways up to it. There's at least one railway interchange on the border (Krakow-Lviv line) where bogies can be replaced to enable trains to run on the different gauge on the other side.