Falklands tensions

[StobieWan]

It occurs to me (and I've not seen any recent news articles on this matter) that the Falklands issue has once again died down and lost impetus. Or have news agencies simply moved onto other issues while this continues to play out in the backrooms?

Well, there wasn't actually much happening in the first place - we've swapped out the guard ship, all the exciting anniversaries have been by and the deployment of whichever prince was being seen as "provocative" is a fait acomplis.

I'm guessing Kristina is done with poking the angry bear for now and we can all go back to living our lives.

 

[RobWilliams]

Well, there wasn't actually much happening in the first place - we've swapped out the guard ship, all the exciting anniversaries have been by and the deployment of whichever prince was being seen as "provocative" is a fait acomplis.

I'm guessing Kristina is done with poking the angry bear for now and we can all go back to living our lives.

It's been a mixture of simply lack of finding new things to shout about, and internal issues like CFK's former cabinet chief (currently a senator) telling the public to save in Argentinian Pesos, when it turns out all his are in USD, funny that (Argentines 'start thinking in Pesos' which becomes Argentine top lawmaker admits having his savings in dollars)

CFK has also announced that she will be stepping out of power in 2015 (CFK says handing over power in 2015 in) so what that'll do to her attitude i have no idea, but I extremely doubt her next in line will be any different.

A date to look forward too, June 14th. UN C24 (Decolonisation Committee) meeting in which both Argentina and the Falklands will be represented, the news coverage on that should provide some interesting stories.

 

[StobieWan]

And indeed, a referendum on sovereignty will be held:


BBC News - Falkland Islands to hold referendum on sovereignty


I can see why it's being done but don't think it'll make any difference to any deeply held position on either side - although it might perhaps sway some of the non-aligned countries in their opinions.

 

[RobWilliams]

And indeed, a referendum on sovereignty will be held:


BBC News - Falkland Islands to hold referendum on sovereignty


I can see why it's being done but don't think it'll make any difference to any deeply held position on either side - although it might perhaps sway some of the non-aligned countries in their opinions.

It'll make no difference for Argentina, for it has never cared about the opinions of the people who live there and as such has never recognised their right of self determination.

But it'll be more of a nudge for democratic countries to stand by the islanders.

 

[RobWilliams]

A few interesting developments in the region, specifically Argentina signing a defence agreement with Venezuela.

Venezuela/Argentina sign military cooperation in framework of Unasur Defence Council — MercoPress

The bilateral agreement also includes areas such as science, technology development and joint military exercises between the armed forces of the two countries.

Chavez praises defence cooperation with Argentina, making Mercosur a military power block — MercoPress

Last Friday the defence ministers from Argentina and Venezuela signed in the port of La Guaira on board Argentina’s tall ship ARA Libertad a memorandum of understanding which refers to the training, capability and military manufacturing technology as part of the “necessary strategic integration of the Armed Forces in the framework of Mercosur”.

Of course, this is all academic, as I understand Argentina has neither the budget nor the will to expand it's armed forces. But the "prophet of doom" in me makes me think this could be just trying to create a pipeline for cheap military equipment.

Then I read this article from DT

Venezuela

“I have already sent a statement to the government of Russia that we are ready to consider buying in the next few years Su-35 fighters to modernize and enhance our defense powers,” Venezuela’s national radio quoted Chavez as saying

I reckon I know someone who might be interested for some cheap Su-30s.

/silly childish speculation

 

[shaun]

Has any body thought to ask the effect of the Falkland islands garrison the citizens of the islands must be one of the best defended populations on the planet and protected by some of the most modern hardware a problem the previous invasion did not have. It seems that a deal will have to be done at some point as in the Falkland islands independence been recognised in return for shared exploration rights something along those lines nobody wants to get into a shooting match

 

[RobWilliams]

Has any body thought to ask the effect of the Falkland islands garrison the citizens of the islands must be one of the best defended populations on the planet and protected by some of the most modern hardware a problem the previous invasion did not have. It seems that a deal will have to be done at some point as in the Falkland islands independence been recognised in return for shared exploration rights something along those lines nobody wants to get into a shooting match

Why should Argentina get joint oil exploration rights? Nestor Kirchner had ample amounts of talks on the matter but then walked out of and closed the door on joint exploration discussions because the UK wouldn't let them turn every negotiation into the usual rantings about sovreignity.

Argentina wants their cake and eat it too. Its not gunna happen, and why would the islanders care if Argentina recognises them when the government has said many times that they couldn't give a toss about the opinions or rights of the islanders?

The 2013 referendum is to show the world what the islanders want.

 

[shaun]

Why should Argentina get joint oil exploration rights? Nestor Kirchner had ample amounts of talks on the matter but then walked out of and closed the door on joint exploration discussions because the UK wouldn't let them turn every negotiation into the usual rantings about sovreignity.

Argentina wants their cake and eat it too. Its not gunna happen, and why would the islanders care if Argentina recognises them when the government has said many times that they couldn't give a toss about the opinions or rights of the islanders?

But for how long is the postion tenable? The garrison is the islands trump card it is equipped with modern weapons and weapon systems and thanks to the middle east the garrison is battle hardened but the islands don't pay for this wondrful protection how practical is it to rely inviron on the UK many thousands of miles away I'm jot saying Argentina has any right to the oil but as the nearest large country no deal means that the oil is staying in the ground

 

[RobWilliams]

But for how long is the postion tenable? The garrison is the islands trump card it is equipped with modern weapons and weapon systems and thanks to the middle east the garrison is battle hardened but the islands don't pay for this wondrful protection how practical is it to rely inviron on the UK many thousands of miles away I'm jot saying Argentina has any right to the oil but as the nearest large country no deal means that the oil is staying in the ground

The position stays as long as the islanders wish it, that's the UKs position and until it changes then the status-quo will not. It'd be political suicide for any government to go against the current population, and rightly so.

And as to 'needing' Argentina to benefit from the oil, that is untrue mainly based upon if they knew that FOGL needed Argentinian facilities then they wouldn't be trying to stop production altogether would they? The reason they're being so aggressive is because they know FOGL/Rockhopper/Southern etc can do it without them.

Then that leads to if without Argentinian facilities (like they're planning) then the oil is not recoverable, then why are companies investing in FOGL without any sort of agreement of using their facilities?

IIRC the issue is more tricky with LPG but it's not impossible.

 

[shaun]

Poltical suicide for whom the UK government is beholden only to the UK population and that garrison isn't cheap and as far as I'm aware there has been only one decent strike of oil despite holes drilled all over the Atlantic the fact that south Americais one of the fastest growing economies on the planet means politicaly they cannot be ignored the island runs out fresh food on a regular basis because they can't access the main land for supplies if you have to take it all with you then that oil becomes very expensive

 

[RobWilliams]

Poltical suicide for whom the UK government is beholden only to the UK population and that garrison isn't cheap and as far as I'm aware there has been only one decent strike of oil despite holes drilled all over the Atlantic the fact that south Americais one of the fastest growing economies on the planet means politicaly they cannot be ignored the island runs out fresh food on a regular basis because they can't access the main land for supplies if you have to take it all with you then that oil becomes very expensive

The garrison costs £100million a year, and with all the 'debate' about the Falklands one of the arguments you don't here is "it costs too much", you can't put a price on freedom.

The comparative sizes of the Sea Lion field is large in comparison to existing sites in the North Sea and analysts have estimated the amount of oil Rockhopper has access too is circa 350 million barrels alongside a strike of (i'm not sure of the amount) natural gas.

Rockhopper signs a billion dollars deal to develop Falklands

If it's such a weak find, why are they still finding substantial investment?

And as to SA being 'one of that fastest growing economies in the world' it's a moot point. They won't handle Falklands oil full stop because Argentina is not involved. They can be politically ignored, the UK has doing so in regards to the Falklands for many years now.

Besides, why would you want Argentina involved? All the to-do about Respol/YPF and it's nationalisation if anything emphasises why foreign oil (especially Falklands oil!) should stay away for fear of nationalisation. Throw in the fact that Argentina has now displaced Venezuela as the region experiencing the most inflation and it's not particularly comforting.

Then in regards to running out of produce, they DO have access to the mainland via the LAN Chile which does supply them with fruit and vegetables. The lack of fresh food is something that affects every remote community, but you don't hear the oil companies backing off due to this fact, they don't even mention it because the profits of the oil would dwarf those costs.

Argentina displaces Venezuela as holder of the region
Argentina has three annual inflation estimates: 9.9%; 23.96% and 30% — MercoPress

 

[StobieWan]

Poltical suicide for whom the UK government is beholden only to the UK population

Political suicide for any UK government abandoning the Islands..

I don't think you're grasping the significance that the FI holds in the minds of the UK populace. It's not some far away place that people don't care about - the Falklands Islands is still very much in mind, and the citizens there have a vote. I also believe that the islands do contribute towards their own upkeep.

On top of that, the Islands offer a superb training facility by all accounts - plenty of open space and opportunities to pull off fairly complex exercises.

As to Argentina's growth, large growth figures are easy to accomplish if your economy is starting from a low point - the Argentinians have very little in the way of access to international credit, and their nationalisation of a company held in part by their only solid European ally won't help. There are also signs that their economy is showing the strain of being centrally (mis)managed by a goverment more interested in personal indulgences than national good.

 

[shaun]

It's not that I don't think it can't be done without Argentina I'm just saying if they are brought on board it will be easier the point was origionaly about the garrison its why every body crying about the carriers is a mute point as long as the islands are garrisoned properly then nothing will pass. kerchers a firebrand and the idiocy with the oil company will back fire as she will struggle to bring in the needed investment to exploit the natural rescources properly. I still think that if the Argentinan government changes a deal will be done and a 100 million a year is to run it every person that goes down there faces a period of 6 months training for the particular skills they need

 

[RobWilliams]

It's not that I don't think it can't be done without Argentina I'm just saying if they are brought on board it will be easier the point was origionaly about the garrison its why every body crying about the carriers is a mute point as long as the islands are garrisoned properly then nothing will pass. kerchers a firebrand and the idiocy with the oil company will back fire as she will struggle to bring in the needed investment to exploit the natural rescources properly. I still think that if the Argentinan government changes a deal will be done and a 100 million a year is to run it every person that goes down there faces a period of 6 months training for the particular skills they need

But that's the whole issue! Argentina cannot and will not be brought on side purely because they believe they are the rightful 'owners' of the Falklands and as such will not go near any hydrocarbons from the 'Islas Malvinas' because it will 'support the British pirates' and have - or are in the process of - making sure that the entire South Americas doesn't either by various measures and policies.

IIRC Total did well out of the whole issue with Repsol + are planning on producing circa 200million cubic metres of natural gas. So Whilst YPF may not be prospering at the moment - AFAIK they're in the process of selling off assets - the French company might do reasonably well, provided of course, they don't get nationalised.

France

The issue about the carriers in regards to the Falklands is a valid one albeit weaker in todays sense because whilst Argentina may not have the capabilities today to do anything, they may in the future (Especially with their recent buddy-buddy approach to Chavez about defence tech, but of course there are other more prominant variables to consider) and therefore we might need them. But I do agree there are more important matters other than the Falklands that needed to be focussed on first.

The government won't change their stance, no way that's going to happen. Primarily it is now in their constitution since 1994 to continue and maintain their legal rights to the Falklands "in accordance with international law", so it is now state policy and a constitutional mandate and is thus unlikely to change.

CFK will step down from power in 2015, however if any successor hopes that any change of the UK government in 2015 will change the UKs attitude they will be mistaken as the actions of the current government are supported by all the political spectrum, at least the main parties who would most likely get power.

 

[shaun]

Didn't know about the constitution thing must admit Chavez thing could be a worry but does Chavez have the clout I know he was working with the Chinese on a space programme but has he got any good technology to trade or is just fluff and bluster to play power games on south American continent?

 

[RobWilliams]

Didn't know about the constitution thing must admit Chavez thing could be a worry but does Chavez have the clout I know he was working with the Chinese on a space programme but has he got any good technology to trade or is just fluff and bluster to play power games on south American continent?

Yeah, it's just a seperate little claus added which was fairly simple to add.

A recent DT article mentioned about how Chavez was very interested in buying Russian Su-35s from the Russians in the future, so he might look to flogging his Su-30s to help pay for it.

Venezuela

Personally, if Argentina was looking for military hardware, i'd be more friendly with Brazil in that area, although I doubt it would be as cheap as what Chavez could offer.

Although this is all academic, Argentina has neither the plans, budget or will to do anything drastic over the Falklands. But in regards to upgrading equipment, even the worst African warlord looks at his kit every so often and thinks "This just isn't good enough" eventually.

My philosophy, plan for the worst and things can only get better.

 

[shaun]

I think the subs scare Argentina more a couple of Astutes full of Tomahawks sitting off your coast could be quite intimidating .

 

[RobWilliams]

I think the subs scare Argentina more a couple of Astutes full of Tomahawks sitting off your coast could be quite intimidating .

Indeed, which is why investment with Brazil with their SSK/SSN program might bear fruit some fruit in terms of some kind of technology - behind closed doors - rather than tangible examples, due to the French involvement.

They did have a plan to shoe-horn a reactor into one of their "new" (80s half built thing never completed and stored in crates) subs, ARA Santa Fe I think. But that went away fairly quickly.

 

[the concerned]

Chavez is getting both the Su-30 and Su-35. But i thought Chavez had pretty much blown Venezuala's economy so might not be able to do much more than offer a shoulder of support

 

[RobWilliams]

Chavez is getting both the Su-30 and Su-35. But i thought Chavez had pretty much blown Venezuala's economy so might not be able to do much more than offer a shoulder of support

Venezuela already has a 24 Su-30s and AFAIK they don't have plans to aquire more.

That is the most likely option, but generally when the likes of Chavez want to get their hands on military equipment, they'll usually get the money somehow.