If there is a change of government it seems certain that the program will be reviewed, given comments made by the Opposition Defence spokesman on both the FA-18F and the JSF, together with comments pushing the case for the F-22. At the very least I would imagine that a Labor government would officially request access to the F-22 program. I know the present government has the 'England letter' but I am not convinced that this was more than an attempt to be 'politically helpful' to a supportive government in the War against Terror. Perhaps I'm being cynical here, and I know many of you will not agree, but, IMO, an official request would at least clear the air once and for all.
{snip}
Tassie, I'm generally not a conspiracy theory person, but I too have a sneaking suspicion in that direction.
Apologies if this has already been posted.
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2007/02/19/1171733680380.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
"Nelson tries stealth to win jet fighter debate
Carlo Kopp
February 20, 2007
Last week Defence Minister Brendan Nelson issued a story to the media about a letter from US Deputy-Secretary of Defence Gordon England, which is alleged to state that the US would not supply the advanced F-22 Raptor fighter to Australia. With the highest stealth, agility and high-speed performance available in the global fighter market, the F-22 is the world's best fighter-bomber aircraft.
This report ignited a firestorm in defence analysis and media circles, as the US has never before denied Australia access to a major weapon system. The US practice to date has always been to supply such systems to trusted allies, sometimes with less than full capabilities, an example being the Joint Strike Fighter.
During the late 1990s, the US Government established, at the behest of congressman David Obey, a formal four-step process to assess systems such as the F-22 and determine what configuration if any could be supplied to a particular allied nation. Under a robust scheme known as the LOEXCOM protocol, multiple government agencies, the US Air Force and contractors audit every component in the aircraft to produce a recommendation to Congress and the president so they can make a decision on what can be exported.
Because much effort is involved in performing the LOEXCOM, it is usually only done if an allied nation makes a formal request for access.
At this point the minister's claims become bizarre. A news release issued the same day contained the statement that "the Government has not asked the United States for access to the F-22 Raptor", thereby confirming that the minister had not requested that the LOEXCOM process be performed to establish whether export is permitted. Another incongruity is that Gordon England, known as an outspoken advocate of the Joint Strike Fighter, is not the party responsible for managing this process. This task falls to the US Air Force.
The minister thus used a letter from a party who is not authorised to decide on export to argue that export of the F-22 to Australia is not permitted. This while the formal US process for export approval has not been completed.
Unless the minister can present good reasons why Australia would fail the LOEXCOM assessment, this looks much like speculation presented as fact. Is this a diversion to shift attention away from criticism aimed at the proposed Joint Strike Fighter and F/A-18F Super Hornet purchases by numerous experts?
What the minister did not disclose is that during the 1999-2001 period, the US did initiate the F-22 LOEXCOM protocol for its trusted ally Australia, but our Defence bureaucrats brought it to an abrupt halt after they sold the Joint Strike Fighter idea to then minister Robert Hill. The first and most important stage of the assessment was completed, concluding that Australia presented no greater security risk than the US Air Force itself.
Since Defence never sought the findings of this assessment, these were not public knowledge until disclosed in Parliament in March last year.
The minister's ill-considered statements produced much collateral damage to public confidence in our US alliance, judging from editorials, irate public feedback and media speculation. In turn, he has not aided his cabinet colleagues, the Prime Minister or the nation in the midst of a heated debate on the benefits of the US alliance.
Defence has a long history of tossing contentious red herrings into a debate to divert attention away from real issues. A good example is the minister's claims last week that the F-22 is not very good as a bomber, while it has been public knowledge for nine years that the US is replacing all of its specialised stealthy F-117A Nighthawk bombers with the F-22.
The debate the minister is trying to avoid is the impending decision by cabinet on whether to keep the F-111s until later in the next decade, or trash them in 2010 and sink $4.1 billion into "interim" F/A-18F Super Hornet fighters, which cannot compete against the latest Russian jets in the region.
Even the numbers do not favour the minister's case for the Super Hornets, which, despite their high cost, will still leave a 50 per cent capability gap once the F-111s are gone. If the F-111s are kept, the capability gap due to the poorly planned structural rebuilds of the existing Hornets will be as little as 15 per cent. If the F-111s are retired, Queensland and Australia's defence industry loses hundreds of high-tech jobs at the Amberley F-111 engineering facility, endangering a number of now marginal Coalition seats in that area.
The minister's Super Hornet proposal thus carries an enormous monetary, strategic and political cost to our nation, and to the Coalition Government.
Dr Carlo Kopp is a defence analyst and research fellow in regional military strategy at the Monash Asia Institute. He has flown the Super Hornet."
Some good points there, but pushing the F-111 barrow as well is too much. And I'm an F-111 fan!
rb