DWG said:
Defense Writers Group: A Project of the Center for Media & Security.
Interview with General Herbert J. “Hawk” Carlisle Commander, Pacific Air Forces 29 July 2013
DWG: ...you also mentioned Singapore. We reported and heard that they are, they’re part of the F-35 program already, but that there was some movement to... Can you give us an update on —
General Carlisle: I talked to their
CDF [Chief of Defense Force], Chee Meng. I was just in Singapore. Singapore’s decided to buy the B model, the VSTOL variant to begin with. But I don’t know where they’re at in putting it into their budget. I know that’s a decision that’s been made and that’s why they’re part of the program, but I don’t know where they’re at in putting that in the budget....
The above is a quote from General Carlisle that Singapore is seriously looking at acquiring the F-35B, but he does not know, when this will happen. To manage expectations, on
20 August 2013, the Singapore Minister of Defence, Dr Ng Eng Hen said:
"It is a long-term replacement for our F-16s and to modernise our fleet so there is no acute need for the F-35s. There are no pressures for the SAF (to decide) soon, we will take our time."
In other developments, the Prime Minister of Singapore, Mr Lee Hsien Loong has unveiled a master plan to double capacity at Southeast Asia's busiest airport, build a new waterfront city, move its massive port and
a long term plan, where Paya Lebar Air Base (PLAB) will be closed and its fixed wing aircraft relocated to free up land for development (see
here for details). Currently, the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) has four air bases, three of which (including PLAB) are used for fixed wing operations. As
David Boey noted in his blog:
"...From an operational perspective, the closure of PLAB would leave the RSAF with two air bases for fixed wing aircraft on mainland Singapore. There is one emergency runway on Pulau Sudong which could be turned into a fully operational air base, though field security and resupply across open water may pose challenges during operations.
The point that all RSAF fighters and strike aircraft will be shepherded to two vulnerable bases will, undoubtedly, provide ample talking points for discussions on the wisdom of such a proposal.
Casting our minds forward to 2030, one should bear in mind that the F-5 fighters now resident at PLAB will have long been retired by then. The C-130B/H Hercules transports are also expected to have been partially replaced by then, despite the mid-life upgrade performed by ST Aerospace.
The number of F-15SG Strike Eagles could be expanded by the end of this decade, perhaps with an improved variant of the F-15 family...
...By 2030, the RSAF is expected to have deepened and widened its expertise with active protection measures such as anti-missile defences, one of which is expected to step up to take the place of the RSAF's long-serving 35mm Oerlikon AA guns soon."
IMHO, the plan to close PLAB in the 2030 time frame will strengthen the case for RSAF's planned acquisition of the STOVL F-35B. However, given what the Minister of Defence has just said, there will be NO announcement of any F-35B acquisition this year.
Edit: David also has a longer discussion on the issues relating to the Prime Minister's
proposal to move from PLAB to Changi East after 2030, given its proximity to an international shipping lane and is more vulnerable to seaborne attack. This means the redevelopment of Changi East airbase will not be complete without measures to improve its ability to generate and sustain air power under fire, not only from the traditional geographic features but from the threats presented by ships as well. While some may take issue with what David says, he has tried to look at the potential risks involved from a risk management perspective of air base hardening. IMHO, the scenario he draws lacks realism and there are also significant gaps in his risk analysis. I am not sure if he is deliberately keeping silent about those gaps, or it is just not well discussed in his latest blog post (beyond just conventional threats at EOR).