Eurofighter to Saudi Arabia!!

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
And if you expect to reexport some them, well then it is not that stupid, is it
But re-exporting the UK's allocation was never permitted under the agreement the UK is bound by. So if Hoon placed all those orders thinking he could get away with it, he was a bloody fool.
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
But re-exporting the UK's allocation was never permitted under the agreement the UK is bound by. So if Hoon placed all those orders thinking he could get away with it, he was a bloody fool.
I know. That's what I said in my first post. ;)

Let's se how it works out if we're only talking 1-1½ sqn's worth... Personally I would hope they are allowed to.

Anyway, will give some volume to the Eurofighter programme. Should make the unit cost go down for the overall programme. And more opportunities for upgrades etc..

Cheers.
 

chrisrobsoar

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
If they were allowed to reduce their Tranche 2 buy with 16-24 fighters, it would be right on the mark IMV.
Please explain why the UK should reduce its procurement of Tranche 2 aircraft from 89 (to 65 - 73)?

These aircraft are destined to equip two squadrons for the A-G role. The first of these with be 6 sqn, which is due to retire its Jaguar aircraft this year and reform with Typhoon in 2008. (They will be based at RAF Leuchars and will eventually take over QRA North). (There will be some rearrangement of aircraft to provide both RAF Leuchars and RAF Coninsby with A-A & A-G capability). The deployment will be as follows: -

6 sqn Operational Squadron (Mainly A-G) 16
TBA Sqn Operational Squadron (Mainly A-G) 16

TBA Sqn Operational Squadron (Swing Role) 16
TBA Sqn Operational Squadron (Swing Role) 16
TBA Sqn Operational Squadron (Swing Role) 16

OCU etc & attrition spares 8

The TBA Sqn numbers with be adopted from the squadrons that will be disbanded, which is a sensitive issue as more squadrons will be disbanded than there are new Typhoon squadrons.

Of the 55 Tranche 1 aircraft ordered 35 have been delivered to the RAF, the outstanding 20 aircraft (18 single seaters and 2 two-seaters), one aircraft has been re-allocated to become IPA6, which will be modified with Tranch2 avionics. I think that another Tranche 1 aircraft is being manufactured as a replacement. The deployment will be as follows: -

3 sqn Operational Squadron (Mainly A-A) 16
11 sqn Operational Squadron (Mainly A-A) 16

17(R) sqn Tactics & Op Eval 6
29(R) sqn OCU 17

Early 2007 3sqn will take over QRA South from 25 Sqn based at RAF Leeming.

MoD has stated that “early” in 2008 the Typhoon will be deployed to Afghanistan. The aircraft will have an Austere A-G capability early in 2008 and should be able to be deployed Sept 2008.

MoD has also announced that the Typhoon will also replace the Tornado aircraft in the Falklands, during 2007. (This is a flight of 4 that will remain at MPA and be supported by aircrew and ground crew from each of the operational squadrons in rotation. The aircraft will be returned home for major maintenance).

During 2007 – 2008 many of the aircraft will start to undergo modification to bring them up the final delivery standard (block 5). (Some very early aircraft will not be modified until 2012).

At present no attrition spares have been delivered. It is likely that some new Tranche 2 aircraft will be used to keep the operational squadrons up to strength while the Tranche 1 aircraft are modified.

Any early Tranche 2 aircraft re-allocated to SA will be replaced by similar quantities of aircraft at the end of Tranche 2.

Tranche 3 (88 aircraft) will enable early aircraft to be modified and aircraft to be stored as attrition spares (86) to cover losses during the anticipated 30+years the aircraft will be in service.

At the end of the day the RAF will have 7 operational squadrons (112 aircraft & 34 used by the OCU & Tac Op Eval units). These will replace the Tornado F3 & Jaguar squadrons and some of the Tornado GR4 squadrons engaged in CAS (the released aircraft will be used as attrition spares for the remaining squadrons).

Remember that the introduction of the Typhoon will see a significant reduction in the number of aircraft and squadrons operated by the RAF.

We need the Tranche 2 aircraft ASAP, to replace the F3s and more importantly to take over some of the tasks currently being carried out by the Harrier. Operating in hot and high conditions in Afghanistan the fatigue live is being burned at such a high rate that if they are not relieved soon then they with not last until they are replaced by the F-35. Tornado GR4s are being used in Iraq, but they are not ideal for use in Afghanistan.

The RAF cannot afford to loose any more squadrons and be expected to provide the support required by the Army and the Navy.


Chris
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
The RAF cannot afford to loose any more squadrons and be expected to provide the support required by the Army and the Navy.
If the RAF loses squadrons, it will be because the politicians don't want to fund it, not that there aren't enough aircraft. At the rate things going the RAF will get all three tranches, but lose the squadron that would make the full order worthwhile.

I will be surprised if most of the aircraft (bar a few spares) will actually all be in active squadrons.
 

Super Nimrod

New Member
Regardless of all this, it has to be good news for the MOD as it means they get to defer some expenditure for some months and they are in significant money troubles at the moment so this is an announcement that they really wanted to hear.
 

Grand Danois

Entertainer
Please explain why the UK should reduce its procurement of Tranche 2 aircraft from 89 (to 65 - 73)?

These aircraft are destined to equip two squadrons for the A-G role. The first of these with be 6 sqn, which is due to retire its Jaguar aircraft this year and reform with Typhoon in 2008. (They will be based at RAF Leuchars and will eventually take over QRA North). (There will be some rearrangement of aircraft to provide both RAF Leuchars and RAF Coninsby with A-A & A-G capability). The deployment will be as follows: -

6 sqn Operational Squadron (Mainly A-G) 16
TBA Sqn Operational Squadron (Mainly A-G) 16

TBA Sqn Operational Squadron (Swing Role) 16
TBA Sqn Operational Squadron (Swing Role) 16
TBA Sqn Operational Squadron (Swing Role) 16

OCU etc & attrition spares 8

The TBA Sqn numbers with be adopted from the squadrons that will be disbanded, which is a sensitive issue as more squadrons will be disbanded than there are new Typhoon squadrons.

Of the 55 Tranche 1 aircraft ordered 35 have been delivered to the RAF, the outstanding 20 aircraft (18 single seaters and 2 two-seaters), one aircraft has been re-allocated to become IPA6, which will be modified with Tranch2 avionics. I think that another Tranche 1 aircraft is being manufactured as a replacement. The deployment will be as follows: -

3 sqn Operational Squadron (Mainly A-A) 16
11 sqn Operational Squadron (Mainly A-A) 16

17(R) sqn Tactics & Op Eval 6
29(R) sqn OCU 17

Early 2007 3sqn will take over QRA South from 25 Sqn based at RAF Leeming.

MoD has stated that “early” in 2008 the Typhoon will be deployed to Afghanistan. The aircraft will have an Austere A-G capability early in 2008 and should be able to be deployed Sept 2008.

MoD has also announced that the Typhoon will also replace the Tornado aircraft in the Falklands, during 2007. (This is a flight of 4 that will remain at MPA and be supported by aircrew and ground crew from each of the operational squadrons in rotation. The aircraft will be returned home for major maintenance).

During 2007 – 2008 many of the aircraft will start to undergo modification to bring them up the final delivery standard (block 5). (Some very early aircraft will not be modified until 2012).

At present no attrition spares have been delivered. It is likely that some new Tranche 2 aircraft will be used to keep the operational squadrons up to strength while the Tranche 1 aircraft are modified.

Any early Tranche 2 aircraft re-allocated to SA will be replaced by similar quantities of aircraft at the end of Tranche 2.

Tranche 3 (88 aircraft) will enable early aircraft to be modified and aircraft to be stored as attrition spares (86) to cover losses during the anticipated 30+years the aircraft will be in service.

At the end of the day the RAF will have 7 operational squadrons (112 aircraft & 34 used by the OCU & Tac Op Eval units). These will replace the Tornado F3 & Jaguar squadrons and some of the Tornado GR4 squadrons engaged in CAS (the released aircraft will be used as attrition spares for the remaining squadrons).

Remember that the introduction of the Typhoon will see a significant reduction in the number of aircraft and squadrons operated by the RAF.

We need the Tranche 2 aircraft ASAP, to replace the F3s and more importantly to take over some of the tasks currently being carried out by the Harrier. Operating in hot and high conditions in Afghanistan the fatigue live is being burned at such a high rate that if they are not relieved soon then they with not last until they are replaced by the F-35. Tornado GR4s are being used in Iraq, but they are not ideal for use in Afghanistan.

The RAF cannot afford to loose any more squadrons and be expected to provide the support required by the Army and the Navy.


Chris
I obviously can't argue with you as you have the deep insight you have. But as you ask, I will explain how I arrived at the 16-24 Trance 2.

First, I did know that the Harriers in Afghanistan are being rapidly worn out and that Typhoons with Litening III, Enhanced Paveway II and operational Mausers were to take over in 2008. I was not aware that the Jaguars and Tornado variants were so urgently in need of replacement, and that the RAF would be so short of aircraft. My perception was that the Jaguar replacements could be deferred to later date, replaced with Tranche 3. The sale to Saudi Arabia would then eventually mean a shortfall of attrition fighters. 20 years from the lack of these attrition fighters would possibly be replaced with UCAVs.

Regarding cannibalizing Tornado airframes - could it happen that BAES will take the Saudi airframes back as part of the deal and that RAF Tornados will soldier on a tad longer because of this?

The MoD could use that 1-1½ billion £ now, I could imagine.

That was how I arrived at it. And that is apparently how far I can get with some knowledge, mixed with my general perception of what could be done.

You are most welcome to comment on this. ;)
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
...
Again, 16-24 of the T2 originally envisaged for the RAF should go to SA.
...
But only to be replaced by other RAF orders filling later delivery slots. That's a contractual requirement.

We save money, because we defer delivery & thus payment - but we get exactly the same numbers eventually, just a little later. I've heard (but I'm an ill-informed outsider, so treat this as dodgy rumint) that aircrew training isn't keeping up with aircraft deliveries, so delaying some aircraft won't affect operational numbers. Just means our attrition replacements arrive later. Also, later slots means we get higher spec on initial delivery, saving taking them offline for upgrades later. So the RAF is perfectly happy with some losing some early tranche 2 delivery slots.

Meanwhile, the Saudis are happy to get early delivery. They get operational earlier, & the upgrades can be fitted in to their normal maintenance schedule.

Everyone likes it. Nice, eh?
 

chrisrobsoar

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
I obviously can't argue with you as you have the deep insight you have. But as you ask, I will explain how I arrived at the 16-24 Trance 2.

First, I did know that the Harriers in Afghanistan are being rapidly worn out and that Typhoons with Litening III, Enhanced Paveway II and operational Mausers were to take over in 2008. I was not aware that the Jaguars and Tornado variants were so urgently in need of replacement, and that the RAF would be so short of aircraft. My perception was that the Jaguar replacements could be deferred to later date, replaced with Tranche 3. The sale to Saudi Arabia would then eventually mean a shortfall of attrition fighters. 20 years from the lack of these attrition fighters would possibly be replaced with UCAVs.

Regarding cannibalizing Tornado airframes - could it happen that BAES will take the Saudi airframes back as part of the deal and that RAF Tornados will soldier on a tad longer because of this?

The MoD could use that 1-1½ billion £ now, I could imagine.

That was how I arrived at it. And that is apparently how far I can get with some knowledge, mixed with my general perception of what could be done.

You are most welcome to comment on this. ;)

6 Sqn operate 11 single seat and 1 two seat Jaguar aircraft. They will be disbanded this year. Some of the aircraft have only a few hours remaining and very soon with have to stop flying. They will keep a few hours in hand so they can be flown to the last destination, usually museum sites or RAF St Athens to be stripped down and scrapped.

The RAF also operates F3 Tornado aircraft for air defence, they are deployed as follows:-

RAF Leeming - Currently tasked with QRA (South) to be taken over by Coningsby July 2007, base may close

25 Sqn 16 (To be disbanded July 2007)
(11 Sqn disbanded last year and the aircraft were used to bring the other units up to strength)

RAF Leuchars Currently tasked with QRA (North)

43 Sqn 16
111 Sqn 16

56(R) Sqn OCU 20

1435 Flight Falkland Islands 4

Total 72

At one time a mid-life update was planned for the F3, (similar to the Tornado GR4), but was cancelled. Another plan was use update the F3 after they were replaced with Typhoons for strike and recognisance roles, relieving some of the GR4s so that they in turn could undergo a final update programme. Some aircraft were modified to carry ALARM and used for SEAD during GW2.

In the early days it was found that the changes required to lengthen the fuselage to allow for the AAM to be fitted placed greater stress on the aircraft than had been originally been anticipated. The centre sections were extensively re-worked. Although the airframes are just 15 - 20 years old the fleet is rapidly running out of hours. The current plan is to start replacing the Tornados at RAF Leuchars in 2008 and complete the programme 2011. As squadrons are disbanded the aircraft with the most remaining hours will be distributed to the remaining squadrons allowing the life expired aircraft to be retired.

RSAF is facing a similar problem with their ADV aircraft. They originally procured 48 IDS & 24 ADV aircraft and then a further 48 IDS aircraft. (96 IDS & 24 AVD). Over the years they have lost 2 ADV, 10 IDS and 3 “others” also thought to be IDS variants. In Oct 2006 the BAE Systems won a contract to update 80 IDS aircraft to the same standard as the RAF GR4 Tornados. The initial batch of 24 Typhoon aircraft will replace the ADVs, which will be returned to the UK and scrapped.

They are big problems for the RAF if the RSAF get all of the first batch of Tranche 2 Typhoon aircraft. It is a very complicated situation. I am writing a piece on this for another forum and will also post it here when its finished. But briefly there are four issues, the current fleet running out of hours, a major update programme R2 bring the Typhoons already delivered up to the Block 5 Full Operational Capability (FOC) standard and problems with the mix of single seaters and two seaters in the RAF production slots.

I have already talked about the fleet running out of hours, so I will jump to the modification programme.

The Tranche 1 aircraft have been delivered in blocks, 1, 1A, 1B. 1C, 2, 2B and will be delivered in blocks 5, 5B. Many of the two seaters were block 1 and will require extensive modification. The current plan is for these aircraft to be modified during scheduled maintenance and the programme completed by 2012. The Block 2B aircraft require less work and will be modified first and should be completed by the end of 2007. Block 2 aircraft will follow. In all 43 aircraft will require to be returned to BAE Warton for update.

Of the 35 aircraft delivered to RAF Coningsby (22 F2 & 13 T1) 17 F2s and 7 T1s are currently at the Block 2B standard and should be updated this year. Next year 1 T1 & 5 F2s will be updated from Block 2 standard. There are also 3 aircraft at BAE that will be updated 1 T1 Block 1, 1 F2 Block 1 and 1 F2 Block2B. There are only five single seat Block 5 aircraft scheduled in Tranche 1. The other outstanding deliveries will be built to Block 2B standard and modified to Block 5 standard prior to delivery. So 2007/2008 is going to be rather busy.

So my guess at the deployment of Tranche 1 aircraft.

3 Sqn 13 F2, 2 T1 = 15
11 Sqn 13 F2, 2 T1 = 15
29(R) Sqn 4 F2, 12 T1 = 16
17(R) Sqn 4 F2, 2 T1 = 6
BAE 2 F2, 1 T1 = 3

Note that the operational squadrons have an extra two seat aircraft to help make up the shortfall, but they are still one aircraft under strength.

The problem with Tranche 2 is that the RAF production slots have already been allocated to single seat or two seat aircraft. The long lead items have been ordered and the assembly of the first batch of aircraft has begun. It is too late to try to change the mix of aircraft for the first two years of the Traunche 2 programme (perhaps even the third year is also frozen). So how does the affect the allocation of aircraft to the RSAF?

Well first of all the initial batch of aircraft is for the Operational Evaluation Unit 17(R) Sqn, they need to develop how the aircraft is to be used as a weapon. Then the OCU 29(R) will get aircraft so that the instructors can learn how to fly the aircraft.

I will not go into detail here because I will post that later.

The real rub is that the Tranche 2 deliveries for the first two years will be as follows:

12 SS (F4) 6 TS (T3)
16 SS (F4) 2 TS (T3)

There are not enough two seaters to train the RSAF and to allow the RAF OCU train pilots on the Tranche 2 aircraft once the RSAF have departed with there complement of aircraft.

RSAF OCU 2 F4 2 T3
RSAF OEU 2 F4 1 T3
RSAF Op Sqn 16 F4 1 T3

That would leave the RAF with 8 F4 & 4 T3, with one T3 allocated to the RAF OEU this would leave only 3 T3 aircraft for the OCU, not enough to train the RAF pilots for the Tranche 2 aircraft.

There would also be insufficient two seat aircraft for the RSAF OCU if small numbers of T3 aircraft were allocated to the RAF OCU & OEU to train RSAF pilots.

The solution appears to be to divide the first years production with the RAF getting the first 6 aircraft to set up the RAF OEU & OCU and then allocate the next 12 to the RSAF. The second year would also be split 6 & 12.

It is likely that there will be a separate RSAF OCU with a famous squadron number, maybe with a middle east connection. As the RAF will not be getting many new aircraft instructors will be transferred from 29 Sqn (R) OCU. To allow the RSAF pilots to be trained at a reasonable rate I think something like 6 T1s will be lent to the RSAF OCU.

That should get us through the first two years, but after the RSAF have departed with their aircraft, the RAF will be in a hole not having enough two seat Tranche 2 aircraft. They only solution is to change some of the production slots in year three from single seat to two seat aircraft (four should be sufficient, making 12 F4 & 6T3). From then on year four etc the production would revert to 16 F4 & 2 T3 aircraft.

So the overall result will be a delay of about two years in the program. That would mean some F3 Tornados would have to remain in service until as late as 2013 and that is a very big ask. It is also getting towards the timeframe when the RAF will be working up to deploy the F-35 and the Harriers should be close to the end of their anticipated life. If we cannot deploy enough Typhoons to relieve the Harriers, they could run out of hours and the Typhoons will have to pick up their tasks. It is about here that the replacement Tranche 2 aircraft will be built. That is why we need the aircraft.

It only needs another middle east round (Iran?) and the RAF will be hard pressed to meets its National, NATO and international commitments.

The hassle with the SFO has resulted in the contract being delayed to the extent that if we cannot change the mix of aircraft in the third year of Tranche 3 production we could loose another year and fall well behind in the pilot training program. This would further delay the deployment of the Typhoon in replacing the F3s and supporting the Harriers. If we are forced to delay replacing the F3s (until 2014) because we need to support the Harriers, we could end up with both types falling out of the sky in increasing numbers.


Chris
 

Scorpion82

New Member
Hi Chris,
thanks for the very informative and comprehensive overview over the RAF status and plans (though many things are known to me) and your explaination about the problems with the Saudi deal from your point of view.
I wished there would be people who could provide similar detailed infos about the status of italian and spanish aircraft as well.

I have some questions and additions however:

So my guess at the deployment of Tranche 1 aircraft.

3 Sqn 13 F2, 2 T1 = 15
11 Sqn 13 F2, 2 T1 = 15
29(R) Sqn 4 F2, 12 T1 = 16
17(R) Sqn 4 F2, 2 T1 = 6
BAE 2 F2, 1 T1 = 3
This totals in 55, but Britain will only receive 53 aircraft from Tranche 1 as 2 will be destinied for Austria. Therefore the RAF should receive 91 instead of 89 aircraft within Tranche 2.


Are the T3 and F4 designations already confirmed? They sound reasonable, but it's the first time I hear about them.


The Tranche 1 aircraft have been delivered in blocks, 1, 1A, 1B. 1C, 2, 2B and will be delivered in blocks 5, 5B.
I assume 5B will be the aircraft with austere AG-capability?
BTW do you know about the differences between Block 1/A/B/C? I read that the later ones incooperate the gun, refueling probe, improved software and changes to the electrical systems, but what features for what version? Its the first time I hear about Block 1A.

That would leave the RAF with 8 F4 & 4 T3, with one T3 allocated to the RAF OEU this would leave only 3 T3 aircraft for the OCU, not enough to train the RAF pilots for the Tranche 2 aircraft.
Early Tranche 2 modells won't differ much from the late Tranche 1 examples. I think its quite possible to train pilots for T2 aircraft on the later T1 aircraft and with the help of simulators. Though I understand that this shortfall is difficult to compensate and might lead to unacceptable delays for the RAF.
 

merocaine

New Member
Does anyone know what the saudi fighters ship with, will they be as capable as what the European nations (germany, italy, spain, britian) will be flying?
 

Scorpion82

New Member
Does anyone know what the saudi fighters ship with, will they be as capable as what the European nations (germany, italy, spain, britian) will be flying?
Yes they will. But alot could also depend on what the Saudis want to be integrated. But generally there're no downgraded export versions of the Typhoon.
 

chrisrobsoar

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
This a copy of a reply to a tread on another forum where a member suggested that the RAF giving up 24 Tranche 2 aircraft could relieve the pressure on our current pilot training program. I have not edited it so it is a little off topic in this forum. However, it does give a little more detail on the R2 modification program.



There are advantages to the MoD if the RAF give up 24 production slots to Saudi, that expenditure planned for 2007-2009 will be deferred by 2-3 years, overcoming the current projected shortfall.

However, it is not without consequences, we need to consider the big picture including what assets we have and how they will be deployed to meet our commitments. We also need to consider the impact of the R2 modification programme during this period.

Firstly, it provides opponents to the Typhoon with the argument that “if you can loose 24 aircraft to Saudi, then you do not need Tranche 3 aircraft”. Secondly, the government has already stated that the Typhoon will be deployed to Afghanistan early in 2008 with an Austere A-G capability, which I think is based on block 5 standard aircraft, (in my opinion the deployment is likely to be early Autumn).

The 4-ship flight of Tornados based at Stanley will be replaced by Typhoons, I think this has now been brought forward to 2008.

Further 3 sqn is scheduled to take over QRA South July 2007.

The original plan was for 6sqn currently flying Jaguar aircraft to be disbanded during 2007 and that they would reform with Typhoons in 2008. They would be the first squadron to be based at RAF Leuchars; presumably they would take over QRA North at the end of 2008 or the beginning of 2009. (I think that the current plan is for there to be only two Typhoon bases RAF Leuchars & RAF Coningsby, RAF Leeming loosing out).

And what about the R2 modification programme commenced in Oct 2006. This will bring the Block 1 & Block 2 aircraft up to the Block 5 Full Operational Capability (FOC) standard.

It has been annocunced that 43 Tranche 1 aircraft are to be modified. Priority is being given to Block 2B aircraft (target completion end 2007), then Block2, followed by Block 1 (all two seat aircraft) by early 2012.

I wanted to know how many aircraft would be modified next year, but did not know the break-point between Block 2 and Block 2B. The following is the result of a little digging and some guess work.

A total of 55 aircraft are included in Tranche 1. I am not sure exactly how many two seaters and single seaters are included in Tranche 1, nor am I sure if ZJ804 ISPA1 BT005, ZJ910 BS001 (First Single seat production aircraft) and ZJ940 BS032 IPA6 (Tranche 1 with Tranche 2 avionics) currently, or will be operated by BAE Warton are included in the total of 55 Tranche 1 aircraft or if additional aircraft will be supplied to the RAF. Unfortunately I think that the RAF will only get 52 aircraft the others will remain with BAE Systems, at least until Tranche 2 when ZJ910 maybe delivered to the RAF.

So my guess at the deployment of Tranche 1 aircraft is:

3 Sqn 13 F2, 2 T1 = 15
11 Sqn 13 F2, 2 T1 = 15
29(R) Sqn 4 F2, 12 T1 = 16
17(R) Sqn 4 F2, 2 T1 = 6
BAE 2 F2, 1 T1 = 3

Total 36 F2, 19 T1 = 55

This seems about right because ZJ946 BS037 is supposed to be the first Tranche 2 aircraft.

RAF Sub-Total 34 F2, 18 T1 = 52

RAF Current 22 F2, 13 T1 = 35

RAF Outstanding 12 F2, 5 T1 = 17

ZJ941 BS032 is supposed to be the first Tranche 1 Block 5 aircraft, so that would make 5 new build Block 5 aircraft.

So assuming

Retrofit R2 Mod to Block 5 43
New Build Block 5
Build Block 2, mod to Block 5 then deliver 7
Total 55

This suggests that future deliveries of single seaters will be at Block 5 standard (5 new build and 7 modified from block 2B). It also suggests that the remaining 5 T1 two seaters will be delivered at Block 2B standard. It is possible that some T1s may be delivered at block 5 standard and obviously more F2s delivered at Block 2B standard, but I would expect this to be only one or two aircraft.

The whole EF production is about 52 aircraft per year, as the RAF order is for about a third of the total I would expect that 17-18 aircraft would be delivered in about a year, however some of the aircraft will be built to Block 2B standard and modified, so I would expect the last Tranche 1 delivery may extend into the late Spring of 2008.

One aircraft ZJ810 BT011 landed without the nose gear has been repaired and has been returned BAE Warton for modification, but I don’t think this is to Block 5 standard. However it might be used as Trial Installation on a Block 1 aircraft.

So now consider the timescale for the R2 and which aircraft will be affected.

I have the production table with the production numbers, but not the block standard to which each aircraft will be built.

I have a little information on the Block 1 that I found in a couple of press releases.

“30 Block 1 standard aircraft were built (all two seaters).”

“Of the 148 Tranche1 aircraft the first 38 aircraft (mostly two seaters) were used for training.”

As the RAF will get 55 of the 148 Tranche 1 aircraft I have assumed that 11 T1 two seaters were at block 1 standard, 10 delivered to the RAF plus ISPA1. This makes some sense as BT012 is the first T1A aircraft.

I think that the breakdown of the 43 aircraft to be modified by retrofit to the block 5 standard, is as follows:-

RAF T1 Blk 1 10
RAF T1A Blk 2/2B 8 (Blk 2 1, Blk 2B 7)
RAF Bk 2/2B F2 22 (Blk 2 5, Blk 2B 17)
RAF Total T1/T1A 18, F2 22 = 40 (Of which 35 have been delivered and 5 T1A outstanding).

BAE T1 Bk 1 1
BAE F2 Bk 1?/Bk 2?/2B 2
BAE Total T1/T1A 1, F2 2 = 3

I do not know the break point between the Block 2 & Block 2B standard. But I’m going to make an educated guess. BS013 was this first two seater delivered to the RAF in Oct 2005. I can find no evidence when the first single seater was delivered, but the first 3 Sqn aircraft BS007 was delivered about the same time. BS006 was also delivered to 29 Sqn in Sept 2005. BS003 was delivered to 17 sqn (OEU) in June 2005. Block 2B appears to have been accepted in Dec 2005.
So I’m going to take the delivery of the 3 Sqn aircraft as the Block 2/Block 2B break point. This would give 5 (1) Blk 2 and 17 (21) Blk 2B, the figures in brackets are for the earliest break-point.

Assuming that priority will be given to the single seat aircraft and that all Block 2B aircraft must be modified before the end of 2007, then 17 aircraft must be modified. I assume that this will require the aircraft to be returned to BAE Warton rather be carried out at RAF Coningsby. At least some of the 7 Blk 2B T1As may also have to be modified during 2007. The remaining Block 2 & 2B aircraft would be updated in 2008.

Together with about 15 new deliveries next year that makes for a lot of coming and going this year.


If Saudi gets the first 24 Tranche 2 aircraft, how will this affect the current planned deployment?

Lets consider JL’s point about allowing the training of pilots to catch up with the availability of new aircraft.

So what is causing the current problem, is it the capacity of the OCU 29(R)? Do they have enough aircraft and instructors? At present they have 12 two-seaters and 4 single-seaters. Is that enough, I don’t know? It appears that up to 5 additional T1A aircraft will delivered over the next 15 months. Some of these will probably be allocated to the operational squadrons for training purposes and to make up the numbers. (even with two T1A aircraft the squadrons will still be under streangth).

So what about the number of instructors? This is a bootstrap, you have to train enough instructors to be able to train the students at the required rate.

Is it because the training anticipated to have been carried out on the simulator has not been done do to problems in this area? I understand that the simulators are now up and running.

Are they having problems with the standard of the incoming student pilot’s? It it difficult to get the pilot’s released from their current Squadrons, (perhaps due to current operational requirements). Or do we just don not have enough pilot’s to go around. (Are they trying to retrain Navigators?).:)

OK so how is allocating aircraft from Tranche 2 going to help? Surely they are going to need to be trained aswell, consuming the available resources (at least) at the rate required for RAF pilot’s, unless of course the current problem is either the quality of availability of the RAF pilots.

Again I am hitting an area where I do not have enough data. I don’t know have many two seater and how many single seaters with be procured or when they are scheduled to be dilivered. Some two seaters will be required to train pilots to fly Tranche 2 aircraft, if the plan was for the training to be carried out by 29(R) sqn OCU then I imagine that fewer two seaters would be required than for the Tranche 1 aircraft. Say for arguments sake 6 two seaters and 12 single seaters in the first year deployed as follows:-

OCU 5 two seat, 4 single seat = 9
OEU 1 two seat, 4 single seat = 5
Operational Sqn 4 single seat = 4
Total 6 two seat, 12 single seat = 18

If all of these assets were transferred to a separate SA training unit (with another famous sqn badge, no names no pack drill), would it have enough assests to adequately train the SA crews?

Sorry JL, but with the data available to me I can’t see that training SA pilot’s rather than RAF pilot’s is going to help us much in the short term.

Can the mix of two seaters and single seaters be changed? Rather too late I’m afraid, long lead items etc would have been ordered ages ago and I’m pretty sure that RAF production slots for at least two years have been frozen (perhaps even for the whole of Tranche 2). A few export slots may have been included towards the end of Tranche 2, some of which will be taken up by RAF replacement aircraft, so there may be a little flexibility in swapping slots to ensure that the RAF & SA get the mix of aircraft they require.

So what can be done?

Well the first thing that is apparent is that allocating the first 24 aircraft to SA is just plain dumb.

The first aircraft have to go to the OEU. It makes no sense to create a separate SA OEU, straight off the bat (of course a RSAF OEU will be required when the whole 24 batch is delivered to SA).

Also the number of two seat aircraft scheduled for delivery in the first year is unlikely to be sufficient to equip a stand alone SA OCU. It is likely that some Tranche 1 T1s will be required.

SA pilots could be trained by 29(R) Sqn OCU, but there are problems with security and book keeping. I would like to see a new unit set up with at least 6 of the Tranche 1 T1 aircraft loaned to the new unit. (Essentially a swap with the Tranche 2 aircraft assigned to the OEU).

The OEU 17(R) Sqn having acquired a few new Tranche 2 aircraft could release a couple of F2s to 3 Sqn & 11 Sqn allowing them to be brought up to strength.

So after 15 months we get to here (assuming production is 12 SS & 6 TS Traunche 2 aircraft)..

3 Sqn 15 F2, 1 T1 = 16
11 Sqn 15 F2, 1 T1 = 16
29(R) Sqn 2 F2, 14 T1 = 16 (Less 6 T1 on loan to SA OCU, it could be up to 8 on loan)
17(R) Sqn 2 F2, 2 T1 = 4
17(R) Sqn 5 SS, 1 TS = 6

BAE 2 F2, 1 T1 = 3

Total 41 F2/SS, 20 T1/TS = 61


SA OCU 4 SS, 5 TS = 9 (Plus 6 T1 on loan from RAF OCU, it could be up to 8 on loan)
SA Op Sqn 3 SS = 3
Total 7 SS, 5 TS = 12

So after 30 months we get to here (assuming production is 16 SS & 2 TS Traunche 2 aircraft). It is unlikely that we can change this mix so soon.

3 Sqn 15 F2, 1 T1 = 16
11 Sqn 15 F2, 1 T1 = 16
29(R) Sqn 2 F2, 14 T1 = 16
17(R) Sqn 2 F2, 2 T1 = 4
17(R) Sqn 5 SS, 1 TS = 6
Unallocated 5 SS, 1 TS = 6

BAE 2 F2, 1 T1 = 3

Total 46 F2/SS, 21 T1/TS = 67

SA OCU 2 SS, 4 TS = 6
SA Op Sqn 15 SS, 1 TS = 16
SA OEU 1 SS 1 TS = 2
Total 18 SS, 6 TS = 24

This would leave the RAF rather exposed if production slots could not be switched from single-seat to two seat aircraft. There may be room for negotiation with SA to change the final delivery split from 18 SS & 6 TS, but not further than 19/5 unless we agreed a training deal.

So half-way through year three the OCU has, 1 or 2 TS Tranche 2 aircraft and a delivery schedule of 16 SS & 2 TS aircraft and is tasked to get a Squadron operational within the year. (A hospital pass).

On an initial inspection with 24 aircraft out of the RAF program would suggest a delay of about 18 months in the deployment of Typhoon aircraft, on a closer look 36 months would be a better estimate. The key factor is how quickly production slots can be switched from single seaters to two seaters. (This will not be a zero cost change).

So how will the late deployment of Typhoon impact on the rest of the air force?

Well in two areas, firstly the Harriers need to be relieved ASAP because they are burning up the remaining life at such a high rate that there is a danger that they will run out of hours before they can be replaced by the F-35. (And this is assuming the program delivers on time). Secondly, the F3s at RAF Leuchars are supposed to be replaced commencing 2008 and being completed 2010 (maybe early 2011). Can we keep operating the F3 until 2013-2014? Remember that the F3s have not had the centre section modification carried out to the GR4s (cancelled I think).

The RSAF replacement aircraft would be built at the end of Tranche 2 program if the number of slots could be increased we may be able to get back on track, but if instead the Tranche 2 programme is extended (as I think it will) the RAF is going to be very hard pressed.

If we get embroiled in GW3 (Iran?) it would be very difficult for us to fulfil our National, NATO and International commitments.

So now, JL how is this good news?

The only good thing that I can see is that if Tranche 3 is delayed it might give BAE Warton something to do, while NETMA, EF and the Nations get their ducks in a line.



Chris
 

Scorpion82

New Member
Copy of my post from the other forum:

Chris the UK receives only 53 aircraft from Tranche 1 as 2 Block 5 SS will go to Austria.

Breakdowns are as follow:
Block 1: 11 T.1 + an airframe for fatigue testing (probably not included into the 53 aircraft)/BT001-BT011
Block 2: 18 (17 F.2 and 1 T.1A)/BS001-BS017 + BT012
Block 2B: 14 (11 F.2 and 3 T.1A) - (deliveries began in december 2005, after Blk.2B received type acceptance on dec. 15 2005)/BS019-BS029 + BT013-BT015
Block 5: 7 (6 F.2 and 1 T.1A)/BS030, BS032-BS036 + BT016

Total: 50
Additionally there're the 3 IPAs which are part of the Tranche 1 deliveries and belong to BAEs test fleet. ISPA 1 belongs to the 11 T1 modells and was or is only temporarily used by BAE.
 

chrisrobsoar

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Hi Chris,
thanks for the very informative and comprehensive overview over the RAF status and plans (though many things are known to me) and your explaination about the problems with the Saudi deal from your point of view.
I wished there would be people who could provide similar detailed infos about the status of italian and spanish aircraft as well.

I have some questions and additions however:

This totals in 55, but Britain will only receive 53 aircraft from Tranche 1 as 2 will be destinied for Austria. Therefore the RAF should receive 91 instead of 89 aircraft within Tranche 2.

Are the T3 and F4 designations already confirmed? They sound reasonable, but it's the first time I hear about them.

I assume 5B will be the aircraft with austere AG-capability?
BTW do you know about the differences between Block 1/A/B/C? I read that the later ones incooperate the gun, refueling probe, improved software and changes to the electrical systems, but what features for what version? Its the first time I hear about Block 1A.

Early Tranche 2 modells won't differ much from the late Tranche 1 examples. I think its quite possible to train pilots for T2 aircraft on the later T1 aircraft and with the help of simulators. Though I understand that this shortfall is difficult to compensate and might lead to unacceptable delays for the RAF.
Austria 2 Chris 0

I forgot about this, yes you are correct. I think we lost one single seat and one two seat aircraft, I’m not sure how this will be divided, probably 1 aircraft off each of the Operational squadrons, meaning that they are now two aircraft below strength.

The T3 & F4 are the designations that were planned to identify the different variants.

You are correct that Block 5B is the Austere AG-capability, but I think that there may be other small additional changes.

Block 1 was a mess and I am still unsure about exactly what changes were incorporated in A/B/C, but they are major and will require considerable rework to get these aircraft up to the Block 5B standard. You have mentioned most of the main changes. There are two variants of the two seat aircraft the T1 and T1A, the latter have a fix for the fuel gages associated with the wing tanks. This seems to have been introduced with Block 2, which used PSP2 FCS software. PSP3 was introduced with Block 2B. If I can get a definitive definition of what is in each block I will post it on this forum.

There are a lot of changes with Tranche 3 that are connected with the introduction of full A-G capability. The weapons computers have been replaced with more powerful items and the Captor Radar LRI 2 Processor; Radar is replaced with a more powerful unit with computers based on the Power PC. This is mainly to provide additional resources for the new A-G modes, however, a new structure is introduced than makes parallel processing easier so it will also speedup the A-A modes and provide an overall improvement in detection range and resolution. This new processor also will support AESA (CAESAR) that we hope to introduce in Tranche 3. Not only does the new processor have more power, it also generates more heat and the plenum chamber (that distributes cooling air) has had to be modified to give the processor more cooling air. (Would you believe that the equipment cooling unit and the two auxiliary fans are installed at the base of the fin at the other end of the aircraft!). Also some equipment has had to be relocated so that it does not sit under the hot exhaust air duct from the processor. This means that you cannot install a Tranche 1 processor in a Tranche 2 aircraft and vice versa.

The aircraft will be similar to fly but very different in the weapons employed and the manner in which the aircraft fights.

I expect that the basic flying training will be carried out using Tranche 1 aircraft and that Tranche 2 aircraft will be used for weapons training.

During this year it is expected that work will continue towards the award of the Tranche 3 contract, I expect that the actual award may be delayed until next year. Once this is out of the way we will try to plan for the Tranche1 to Tranche 2/3 update program. As the Tranche 3 aircraft start to be delivered the Tranche 1 aircraft will be withdrawn from service (they will need major servicing by then) and most of them will be updated to Tranche 2/3 standard. That is the Tranche 2 processor will be fitted but the AESA may not be fitted initially to all aircraft, it will depend on the availability of T/R Modules. A huge amount of development work is being carried out in this area and by the time Tranche 3 enters service another generation of T/R Modules may be available. Once the aircraft is at the Tranche 2 standard installing the AESA (and the power supply unit) is straightforward, a days work. A couple of my friends did the first installation of CAESAR and it took them two days because of other work going on at the same time. CAESAR is a good bit of kit, but rather heavy, the production version will have better performance and be lighter.

I have flown in the BAC 1-11 trail aircraft with both the Tranche 1 & Tranche 2 Captor Radar, but I had moved off the project before CAESAR entered the flight trial stage. From what I have heard from friends still on the project it has performed much better than anticipated and they have had very few problems.

As Tranche 3 aircraft enter service the early (modified) Tranche 1 (and some Tranche 2) aircraft will become the attrition spares. In reality they will be used to provide cover while more capable assets undergo deep maintenance and will also act as a war reserve.


Chris
 

Scorpion82

New Member
There were some errors in my last post, I have corrected them. Here is the result:


Breakdowns are as follow:
Block 1: 11 T.1 + an airframe for fatigue testing (probably not included into the 53 aircraft)/BT001-BT011
Block 2: 18 (17 F.2 and 1 T.1A)/BS001-BS017 + BT012
Block 2B: 14 (11 F.2 and 3 T.1A) - (deliveries began in december 2005, after Blk.2B received type acceptance on dec. 15 2005)/BS018-BS028 + BT013-BT015
Block 5: 7 (6 F.2 and 1 T.1A)/BS031-BS036 + BT016

Total: 51
Additionally there're the 2 IPAs (1 & 5) bringing the total to 53.

Notes:
- BS029/030 are going to Austria (final assembly in Germany!)
- MAFT is not a flying aircraft and will not be used by the RAF
- BS031 (IPA6) will be used by BAE and isn't available for the RAF as well
- BT005 (ISPA1) is only temporarily used by BAE and will be brought back into RAF service when fulfilling its testing purposes
 

Scorpion82

New Member
I think we lost one single seat and one two seat aircraft, I’m not sure how this will be divided, probably 1 aircraft off each of the Operational squadrons, meaning that they are now two aircraft below strength.
You mean lost to Austria? If yes then its wrong, they are both single seaters, as Austria hasn't ordered any twin-seat.

Block 1 was a mess and I am still unsure about exactly what changes were incorporated in A/B/C, but they are major and will require considerable rework to get these aircraft up to the Block 5B standard.
I know. What I want to know is the difference between Block 1A, 1B and 1C. T.1A was introduced with Batch 2 (Block 2 onwards) yes.

This seems to have been introduced with Block 2, which used PSP2 FCS software. PSP3 was introduced with Block 2B.
PSP is the operational software, not the FCS software. Block 1 & 2 modells feature Phase 3 FCS software, though Block 2 additionally features things like DORC and ALSR.
Block 2B uses the Phase 4 FCS software and Block 5 will introduce the Phase 5 FCS software.

There are a lot of changes with Tranche 3 that are connected with the introduction of full A-G capability.
I guess you mean Tranche 2 not 3? Though with T3 a lot of other things will change as well.

The aircraft will be similar to fly but very different in the weapons employed and the manner in which the aircraft fights.
Initially Block 8 Tranche 2 modells want differ much from the Block 5 Tranche 1 modells in terms of avionics functionalities as they will use the FOC software from Block 5, but run it on the 5 new PowerPC processors. The new RTOS will be introduced with Block 8B.
But there will be some major hardware changes as you probably know, as you have described some of them related to the radar. Though there will be additional things like DECMU, full PIRATE, digital interface for IRIS-T, new CAMU and HEA as well as AIM-120C-5, if the last 2 things aren't already available with Block 5. I'm not sure about TERPROM II it is often mentioned as a feature, but it looks like the Tranche 1 modells will only be equiped with the more limited GPWS and TERPROM might be introduced with Block 8 or later T2 modells.
 

chrisrobsoar

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Copy of my post from the other forum:

Chris the UK receives only 53 aircraft from Tranche 1 as 2 Block 5 SS will go to Austria.

Breakdowns are as follow:
Block 1: 11 T.1 + an airframe for fatigue testing (probably not included into the 53 aircraft)/BT001-BT011
Block 2: 18 (17 F.2 and 1 T.1A)/BS001-BS017 + BT012
Block 2B: 14 (11 F.2 and 3 T.1A) - (deliveries began in december 2005, after Blk.2B received type acceptance on dec. 15 2005)/BS019-BS029 + BT013-BT015
Block 5: 7 (6 F.2 and 1 T.1A)/BS030, BS032-BS036 + BT016

Total: 50
Additionally there're the 3 IPAs which are part of the Tranche 1 deliveries and belong to BAEs test fleet. ISPA 1 belongs to the 11 T1 modells and was or is only temporarily used by BAE.

Thanks for the information.

We seem to be crossing in the post.

I am surprised that the break-point for Block 2/Block 2B was as late as BS019, which was delivered to Coningsby 25/07/2006, where as BT013 was delivered to Coningsby on 07/10/2005.

Your data suggests that less Block 2B aircraft have been delivered and hence that fewer aircraft will need to be returned to BAE Warton for modification.

Somewhere along the line ZJ927 BS018 delivered to Coningsby on 08/08/2006 seems to have dropped out of your list, was it the last Block 2 single seat aircraft.

You seem to imply that the 3 IPA aircraft are included in the (now) 53 aircraft in the UK allocation of Tranche 1 aircraft.

So we have

IPA1 PT001 ZJ699
IPA5 PS002 ZJ700

IPA6 BS031 ZJ940 (Single seat Block 2B modified with Tranche 2 avionics)

ISPA1 BT005 ZJ804 (Two Seat Block 1)

BS001 ZJ910 (Single seat Block 1 – still at BAE Warton)

I still can’t get this to add up correctly, there will be 3 IPA aircraft but IPA6 is in the series production batch.

So starting with 55, less two Austrian single seaters = 53, less IPA1 & IPA5 = 51 aircraft

BT001 – BT016 = 16
BS001 – BT036 = 36
Total 52

You have omitted BS030 from your list and BS018 which has been delivered, so maybe we should just assume that BS030 will not be built, making 51 aircraft.

16 T1/T1A and 35 F2 = 51 in total

Of which 1 T1 and 2 F2 are currently retained by BAE, leaving 15 T1/T1A & 33 F2 aircraft to be deployed by the RAF Coningsby, currently they have 13 T1/T1A and 22 F2 aircraft , leaving 2 T1A and 11 F2 aircraft outstanding.

So that would give the RAF deployment of Tranche 1 aircraft as follows: -

3 Sqn 1 T1 12 F2
11 Sqn 1 T1 12 F2
29(R) Sqn 12 T1 4 F2
17(R) Sqn 1 T1 5 F2

Total 15 T1/T1A 33 F2 = 48

BAE

IPA1 PT001 ZJ699
IPA5 PS002 ZJ700
IPA6 BS031 ZJ940
ISPA1 BT005 ZJ804
BS001 ZJ910 First single seat aircraft

The problem is even worse than I thought.

Take 4 F2s out for the Falklands, 4 for QRA South, (that’s 2 plus 2 back-up), and 8 for deployment in Afghanistan, then that is 16 of the available 24 aircraft deployed on active operations. That only leaves 8 aircraft in reserve. It looks like the crews of 3 Sqn & 11 Sqn are going to be spending half their time on detachment.


Chris
 

Scorpion82

New Member
Hi Chris,
hope you have seen my second corrected post. The first one contained errors. Some of which raised questions for you.

I am surprised that the break-point for Block 2/Block 2B was as late as BS019, which was delivered to Coningsby 25/07/2006, where as BT013 was delivered to Coningsby on 07/10/2005.
As shown in my corrected post BS018 should be the first Block 2B aircraft. AFAIK the first Block 2B example was ready in september 2005, but this configuration didn't receive 4 national type acceptance before december 15 2005. Deliveries to the british and spanish customers started right after that, but were then delayed as a problem occured with the new Phase 4 FCS software. A fix should have been developed until late june 2006. That's the reason why the partner nations haven't received many aircraft in the first half of 2006.

You seem to imply that the 3 IPA aircraft are included in the (now) 53 aircraft in the UK allocation of Tranche 1 aircraft.
That's correct IPA1, 5 and 6 are all included into the 53 Tranche 1 models.

I still can’t get this to add up correctly, there will be 3 IPA aircraft but IPA6 is in the series production batch.
I assume BS031 wasn't originally intended to become an IPA, but the decision looks logically IMO, if you take into account the delays for T2 due to the late signature of the T2 contract.

So starting with 55, less two Austrian single seaters = 53, less IPA1 & IPA5 = 51 aircraft

BT001 – BT016 = 16
BS001 – BT036 = 36
Total 52

You have omitted BS030 from your list and BS018 which has been delivered, so maybe we should just assume that BS030 will not be built, making 51 aircraft.

16 T1/T1A and 35 F2 = 51 in total
BS029 and BS030 go to Austria.
The missing BS018 was an error of me. I simply forgot it.

To sum it up:
BT001 - BT016 = 16
BS001 - BS028 = 28
BS031 - BS036 = 6 (includes IPA6)
PT001/PS002 = 2
+ the twin seat MAFT = 1
Total = 53 ;)


BTW didn't know that BS001 is still used by BAE.
 

chrisrobsoar

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Scorpion

Thanks JL has just provided a very detailed account, in the other forum, it appears that the one that got away was the MAFT.


So that would give the RAF deployment of Tranche 1 aircraft as follows: -

3 Sqn 1 T1 12 F2
11 Sqn 1 T1 12 F2
29(R) Sqn 12 T1 4 F2
17(R) Sqn 1 T1 4 F2

Total 15 T1/T1A 32 F2 = 47

BAE

IPA1 PT001 ZJ699
IPA5 PS002 ZJ700
IPA6 BS031 ZJ940
ISPA1 BT005 ZJ804
BS001 ZJ910 First single seat aircraft
Twin Seat MAFT

Chris
 

Scorpion82

New Member
Yep the MAFT is the one which got away. But it was planned from the very beginning (tranche 1 contract signature) that one of the 18 british twin-seats would be a MAFT.

Just for info. The germans built a single seat prototype MAFT which was tested between 1993 and 1998 and amassed amazing 18000 simulated FHs.
 
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