This a copy of a reply to a tread on another forum where a member suggested that the RAF giving up 24 Tranche 2 aircraft could relieve the pressure on our current pilot training program. I have not edited it so it is a little off topic in this forum. However, it does give a little more detail on the R2 modification program.
There are advantages to the MoD if the RAF give up 24 production slots to Saudi, that expenditure planned for 2007-2009 will be deferred by 2-3 years, overcoming the current projected shortfall.
However, it is not without consequences, we need to consider the big picture including what assets we have and how they will be deployed to meet our commitments. We also need to consider the impact of the R2 modification programme during this period.
Firstly, it provides opponents to the Typhoon with the argument that “if you can loose 24 aircraft to Saudi, then you do not need Tranche 3 aircraft”. Secondly, the government has already stated that the Typhoon will be deployed to Afghanistan early in 2008 with an Austere A-G capability, which I think is based on block 5 standard aircraft, (in my opinion the deployment is likely to be early Autumn).
The 4-ship flight of Tornados based at Stanley will be replaced by Typhoons, I think this has now been brought forward to 2008.
Further 3 sqn is scheduled to take over QRA South July 2007.
The original plan was for 6sqn currently flying Jaguar aircraft to be disbanded during 2007 and that they would reform with Typhoons in 2008. They would be the first squadron to be based at RAF Leuchars; presumably they would take over QRA North at the end of 2008 or the beginning of 2009. (I think that the current plan is for there to be only two Typhoon bases RAF Leuchars & RAF Coningsby, RAF Leeming loosing out).
And what about the R2 modification programme commenced in Oct 2006. This will bring the Block 1 & Block 2 aircraft up to the Block 5 Full Operational Capability (FOC) standard.
It has been annocunced that 43 Tranche 1 aircraft are to be modified. Priority is being given to Block 2B aircraft (target completion end 2007), then Block2, followed by Block 1 (all two seat aircraft) by early 2012.
I wanted to know how many aircraft would be modified next year, but did not know the break-point between Block 2 and Block 2B. The following is the result of a little digging and some guess work.
A total of 55 aircraft are included in Tranche 1. I am not sure exactly how many two seaters and single seaters are included in Tranche 1, nor am I sure if ZJ804 ISPA1 BT005, ZJ910 BS001 (First Single seat production aircraft) and ZJ940 BS032 IPA6 (Tranche 1 with Tranche 2 avionics) currently, or will be operated by BAE Warton are included in the total of 55 Tranche 1 aircraft or if additional aircraft will be supplied to the RAF. Unfortunately I think that the RAF will only get 52 aircraft the others will remain with BAE Systems, at least until Tranche 2 when ZJ910 maybe delivered to the RAF.
So my guess at the deployment of Tranche 1 aircraft is:
3 Sqn 13 F2, 2 T1 = 15
11 Sqn 13 F2, 2 T1 = 15
29(R) Sqn 4 F2, 12 T1 = 16
17(R) Sqn 4 F2, 2 T1 = 6
BAE 2 F2, 1 T1 = 3
Total 36 F2, 19 T1 = 55
This seems about right because ZJ946 BS037 is supposed to be the first Tranche 2 aircraft.
RAF Sub-Total 34 F2, 18 T1 = 52
RAF Current 22 F2, 13 T1 = 35
RAF Outstanding 12 F2, 5 T1 = 17
ZJ941 BS032 is supposed to be the first Tranche 1 Block 5 aircraft, so that would make 5 new build Block 5 aircraft.
So assuming
Retrofit R2 Mod to Block 5 43
New Build Block 5
Build Block 2, mod to Block 5 then deliver 7
Total 55
This suggests that future deliveries of single seaters will be at Block 5 standard (5 new build and 7 modified from block 2B). It also suggests that the remaining 5 T1 two seaters will be delivered at Block 2B standard. It is possible that some T1s may be delivered at block 5 standard and obviously more F2s delivered at Block 2B standard, but I would expect this to be only one or two aircraft.
The whole EF production is about 52 aircraft per year, as the RAF order is for about a third of the total I would expect that 17-18 aircraft would be delivered in about a year, however some of the aircraft will be built to Block 2B standard and modified, so I would expect the last Tranche 1 delivery may extend into the late Spring of 2008.
One aircraft ZJ810 BT011 landed without the nose gear has been repaired and has been returned BAE Warton for modification, but I don’t think this is to Block 5 standard. However it might be used as Trial Installation on a Block 1 aircraft.
So now consider the timescale for the R2 and which aircraft will be affected.
I have the production table with the production numbers, but not the block standard to which each aircraft will be built.
I have a little information on the Block 1 that I found in a couple of press releases.
“30 Block 1 standard aircraft were built (all two seaters).”
“Of the 148 Tranche1 aircraft the first 38 aircraft (mostly two seaters) were used for training.”
As the RAF will get 55 of the 148 Tranche 1 aircraft I have assumed that 11 T1 two seaters were at block 1 standard, 10 delivered to the RAF plus ISPA1. This makes some sense as BT012 is the first T1A aircraft.
I think that the breakdown of the 43 aircraft to be modified by retrofit to the block 5 standard, is as follows:-
RAF T1 Blk 1 10
RAF T1A Blk 2/2B 8 (Blk 2 1, Blk 2B 7)
RAF Bk 2/2B F2 22 (Blk 2 5, Blk 2B 17)
RAF Total T1/T1A 18, F2 22 = 40 (Of which 35 have been delivered and 5 T1A outstanding).
BAE T1 Bk 1 1
BAE F2 Bk 1?/Bk 2?/2B 2
BAE Total T1/T1A 1, F2 2 = 3
I do not know the break point between the Block 2 & Block 2B standard. But I’m going to make an educated guess. BS013 was this first two seater delivered to the RAF in Oct 2005. I can find no evidence when the first single seater was delivered, but the first 3 Sqn aircraft BS007 was delivered about the same time. BS006 was also delivered to 29 Sqn in Sept 2005. BS003 was delivered to 17 sqn (OEU) in June 2005. Block 2B appears to have been accepted in Dec 2005.
So I’m going to take the delivery of the 3 Sqn aircraft as the Block 2/Block 2B break point. This would give 5 (1) Blk 2 and 17 (21) Blk 2B, the figures in brackets are for the earliest break-point.
Assuming that priority will be given to the single seat aircraft and that all Block 2B aircraft must be modified before the end of 2007, then 17 aircraft must be modified. I assume that this will require the aircraft to be returned to BAE Warton rather be carried out at RAF Coningsby. At least some of the 7 Blk 2B T1As may also have to be modified during 2007. The remaining Block 2 & 2B aircraft would be updated in 2008.
Together with about 15 new deliveries next year that makes for a lot of coming and going this year.
If Saudi gets the first 24 Tranche 2 aircraft, how will this affect the current planned deployment?
Lets consider JL’s point about allowing the training of pilots to catch up with the availability of new aircraft.
So what is causing the current problem, is it the capacity of the OCU 29(R)? Do they have enough aircraft and instructors? At present they have 12 two-seaters and 4 single-seaters. Is that enough, I don’t know? It appears that up to 5 additional T1A aircraft will delivered over the next 15 months. Some of these will probably be allocated to the operational squadrons for training purposes and to make up the numbers. (even with two T1A aircraft the squadrons will still be under streangth).
So what about the number of instructors? This is a bootstrap, you have to train enough instructors to be able to train the students at the required rate.
Is it because the training anticipated to have been carried out on the simulator has not been done do to problems in this area? I understand that the simulators are now up and running.
Are they having problems with the standard of the incoming student pilot’s? It it difficult to get the pilot’s released from their current Squadrons, (perhaps due to current operational requirements). Or do we just don not have enough pilot’s to go around. (Are they trying to retrain Navigators?).
OK so how is allocating aircraft from Tranche 2 going to help? Surely they are going to need to be trained aswell, consuming the available resources (at least) at the rate required for RAF pilot’s, unless of course the current problem is either the quality of availability of the RAF pilots.
Again I am hitting an area where I do not have enough data. I don’t know have many two seater and how many single seaters with be procured or when they are scheduled to be dilivered. Some two seaters will be required to train pilots to fly Tranche 2 aircraft, if the plan was for the training to be carried out by 29(R) sqn OCU then I imagine that fewer two seaters would be required than for the Tranche 1 aircraft. Say for arguments sake 6 two seaters and 12 single seaters in the first year deployed as follows:-
OCU 5 two seat, 4 single seat = 9
OEU 1 two seat, 4 single seat = 5
Operational Sqn 4 single seat = 4
Total 6 two seat, 12 single seat = 18
If all of these assets were transferred to a separate SA training unit (with another famous sqn badge, no names no pack drill), would it have enough assests to adequately train the SA crews?
Sorry JL, but with the data available to me I can’t see that training SA pilot’s rather than RAF pilot’s is going to help us much in the short term.
Can the mix of two seaters and single seaters be changed? Rather too late I’m afraid, long lead items etc would have been ordered ages ago and I’m pretty sure that RAF production slots for at least two years have been frozen (perhaps even for the whole of Tranche 2). A few export slots may have been included towards the end of Tranche 2, some of which will be taken up by RAF replacement aircraft, so there may be a little flexibility in swapping slots to ensure that the RAF & SA get the mix of aircraft they require.
So what can be done?
Well the first thing that is apparent is that allocating the first 24 aircraft to SA is just plain dumb.
The first aircraft have to go to the OEU. It makes no sense to create a separate SA OEU, straight off the bat (of course a RSAF OEU will be required when the whole 24 batch is delivered to SA).
Also the number of two seat aircraft scheduled for delivery in the first year is unlikely to be sufficient to equip a stand alone SA OCU. It is likely that some Tranche 1 T1s will be required.
SA pilots could be trained by 29(R) Sqn OCU, but there are problems with security and book keeping. I would like to see a new unit set up with at least 6 of the Tranche 1 T1 aircraft loaned to the new unit. (Essentially a swap with the Tranche 2 aircraft assigned to the OEU).
The OEU 17(R) Sqn having acquired a few new Tranche 2 aircraft could release a couple of F2s to 3 Sqn & 11 Sqn allowing them to be brought up to strength.
So after 15 months we get to here (assuming production is 12 SS & 6 TS Traunche 2 aircraft)..
3 Sqn 15 F2, 1 T1 = 16
11 Sqn 15 F2, 1 T1 = 16
29(R) Sqn 2 F2, 14 T1 = 16 (Less 6 T1 on loan to SA OCU, it could be up to 8 on loan)
17(R) Sqn 2 F2, 2 T1 = 4
17(R) Sqn 5 SS, 1 TS = 6
BAE 2 F2, 1 T1 = 3
Total 41 F2/SS, 20 T1/TS = 61
SA OCU 4 SS, 5 TS = 9 (Plus 6 T1 on loan from RAF OCU, it could be up to 8 on loan)
SA Op Sqn 3 SS = 3
Total 7 SS, 5 TS = 12
So after 30 months we get to here (assuming production is 16 SS & 2 TS Traunche 2 aircraft). It is unlikely that we can change this mix so soon.
3 Sqn 15 F2, 1 T1 = 16
11 Sqn 15 F2, 1 T1 = 16
29(R) Sqn 2 F2, 14 T1 = 16
17(R) Sqn 2 F2, 2 T1 = 4
17(R) Sqn 5 SS, 1 TS = 6
Unallocated 5 SS, 1 TS = 6
BAE 2 F2, 1 T1 = 3
Total 46 F2/SS, 21 T1/TS = 67
SA OCU 2 SS, 4 TS = 6
SA Op Sqn 15 SS, 1 TS = 16
SA OEU 1 SS 1 TS = 2
Total 18 SS, 6 TS = 24
This would leave the RAF rather exposed if production slots could not be switched from single-seat to two seat aircraft. There may be room for negotiation with SA to change the final delivery split from 18 SS & 6 TS, but not further than 19/5 unless we agreed a training deal.
So half-way through year three the OCU has, 1 or 2 TS Tranche 2 aircraft and a delivery schedule of 16 SS & 2 TS aircraft and is tasked to get a Squadron operational within the year. (A hospital pass).
On an initial inspection with 24 aircraft out of the RAF program would suggest a delay of about 18 months in the deployment of Typhoon aircraft, on a closer look 36 months would be a better estimate. The key factor is how quickly production slots can be switched from single seaters to two seaters. (This will not be a zero cost change).
So how will the late deployment of Typhoon impact on the rest of the air force?
Well in two areas, firstly the Harriers need to be relieved ASAP because they are burning up the remaining life at such a high rate that there is a danger that they will run out of hours before they can be replaced by the F-35. (And this is assuming the program delivers on time). Secondly, the F3s at RAF Leuchars are supposed to be replaced commencing 2008 and being completed 2010 (maybe early 2011). Can we keep operating the F3 until 2013-2014? Remember that the F3s have not had the centre section modification carried out to the GR4s (cancelled I think).
The RSAF replacement aircraft would be built at the end of Tranche 2 program if the number of slots could be increased we may be able to get back on track, but if instead the Tranche 2 programme is extended (as I think it will) the RAF is going to be very hard pressed.
If we get embroiled in GW3 (Iran?) it would be very difficult for us to fulfil our National, NATO and International commitments.
So now, JL how is this good news?
The only good thing that I can see is that if Tranche 3 is delayed it might give BAE Warton something to do, while NETMA, EF and the Nations get their ducks in a line.
Chris