DVDs will be dead in a decade: Bill Gates

[Soldier]

GF, You are talking about infrastructure whereas I am talking about technology invention & implementation in broadband. Also as to maximum penetration of Internet usage, it is Sweden and Netherlands. Now when you say which country is the most networked country, that itself is a very wide subject. We were only talking about broadband networks versus ADSL.
I doubt it if S Korea has that much of fiber laid for future use as much as in US. It is in tonnes here, so much that it can take care of next 20 years of IT boom without even laying a single feet of optic. Also business sense used in US when it comes to networking is way matured then you will find in other countries, making US one of the most networked country. Million of miles optics is buried in vast lands of US since Cold war and during IT boom, which is not even used.
I will really be surprised if there is anyother country which has already surpassed US in terms of networking. Again, I was only talking about invention and implementation in by former posts.

 

[gf0012-aust]

GF, You are talking about infrastructure whereas I am talking about technology invention & implementation in broadband. Also as to maximum penetration of Internet usage, it is Sweden and Netherlands. Now when you say which country is the most networked country, that itself is a very wide subject. We were only talking about broadband networks versus ADSL.
I doubt it if S Korea has that much of fiber laid for future use as much as in US. It is in tonnes here, so much that it can take care of next 20 years of IT boom without even laying a single feet of optic. Also business sense used in US when it comes to networking is way matured then you will find in other countries, making US one of the most networked country. Million of miles optics is buried in vast lands of US since Cold war and during IT boom, which is not even used.
I will really be surprised if there is anyother country which has already surpassed US in terms of networking. Again, I was only talking about invention and implementation in by former posts.

I did understand what you said. The ratio was of fibre optic cable laid to population and divided by size of country. SK does have more on that basis than any other country in the world (confirmed by a rep from US Dept of Commerce at a communications conf that I attended.) However, in absolute "volume length", the US has the most (due to it's sheer size)

SK at a military/civilian communications infrastructure level is an absolute paradise that no other nation even comes remotely close to.

When we discussed high speed comms we look at broadband. ADSL and Satellite downlinks to civilian subscribers. ie we take all 3 at once rather than separate them. The definition then is affected by what the baseline speed figure is set at. eg 384kps or greater.

ADSL of course suffers from absolute line length and concurrent user limitations. WHich can skew the figures considerably.

 

[Soldier]

GF,
Perhaps that US representative got carried away after spending few nights in Seoul... : I did all the homework when it comes to penetration of Internet, Laid Fiber in various countries, ratio of broadband subs as per the total population and also as per infrastructure and I am sorry to say that the information which you provided is utterly wrong.
S Korea stands on 9th position when it comes to Broadband penetration among the population not 1st.
Now as surprising it may sound that even though Australia has a 3rd class infrasture when it comes to broadband the penetration of internet usage (not broadband) is 3rd highest in the world.. hmmm, this is why so many aussies are online all the time . The crown of being at 1st is Sweden followed by US. Here is the eye-opener which will tell you where internet usage is the most. If you will like to have a chart for Broadband usage let me know and i will paste that info too.
TOP 25 COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHEST
INTERNET PENETRATION RATE

#
Country or Region Penetration
(% Population) Internet Users
Latest Data Population
( 2004 Est. ) Source and Date
of Latest Data
1 Sweden
76.8 %
6,906,110
8,995,900
Nielsen//NR Apr/04

2 United States
70.4 %
207,444,619
294,540,100
Nielsen//NR Apr/04

3 Australia
67.1 %
13,563,423
20,226,100
Nielsen//NR Apr/04

4 Netherlands
66.0 %
10,806,328
16,364,500
Nielsen//NR Apr/04

5 Iceland
65.3 %
195,000
298,400
ITU - Dec/03

6 Canada
63.9 %
20,450,000
32,026,600
C.I.Almanac - Dec/03

7 Hong Kong
63.0 %
4,661,589
7,394,170
Nielsen//NR Apr/04

8 Denmark
62.5 %
3,375,850
5,405,600
Nielsen//NR Jun/02

9 Korea, (South)
62.0 %
29,220,000
47,135,500
KRNIC - Dec/03

10 Switzerland
61.9 %
4,599,072
7,433,000
Nielsen//NR Apr/04

11 United Kingdom
60.6 %
35,831,432
59,157,400
Nielsen//NR Apr/04

12 Singapore
60.0 %
2,100,000
3,499,500
ITU - Dec/02

13 New Zealand
55.4 %
2,110,000
3,809,400
ITU - Dec/03

14 Germany
54.9 %
45,357,649
82,633,200
Nielsen//NR Apr/04

15 Italy
50.9 %
28,610,000
56,153,700
C.I.Almanac Dec/03

16 Finland
50.7 %
2,650,000
5,224,800
ITU - Dec/02

17 Japan
50.4 %
64,537,437
127,944,200
Nielsen//NR Apr/04

18 Taiwan
50.3 %
11,602,523
23,073,800
Nielsen//NR Jun/01

19 Norway
50.0 %
2,288,000
4,577,800
ITU - Dec/02

20 Austria
46.5 %
3,730,000
8,022,300
ITU - Dec/03

21 Bermuda
46.2 %
30,000
65,000
ITU - Dec/01

22 Slovenia
38.4 %
750,000
1,954,500
ITU - Dec/02

23 France
38.0 %
22,593,841
59,494,800
Nielsen//NR Apr/04

24 Belgium
36.4 %
3,769,123
10,367,900
Nielsen//NR Apr/04

25 Luxembourg
36.0 %
165,000
457,700
ITU - Dec/02


TOP 25 in Penetration
59.5 %
527,346,996
886,255,870
IWS - May31/04

Rest of the World
4.6 %
258,363,026
5,567,055,197
IWS - May31/04

TotalWorld - Users
12.2 %
785,710,022
6,453,311,067
IWS - May31/04

Cheers...........

 

[gf0012-aust]

Thanks soldier. : Well, there you go, you just can't trust the information you're given sometimes.

Interestingly enough, I was at a comms conference a few months ago for military communications in London and the same thing was said. No one disputed it either. So either I am messing up what was said at the conference, or I'm badly confused (the latter is always posible :eek )

 

[EnigmaNZ]

Blue laser DVD's hold 27 Gb of data, but wait, there's more.
"Sony re-iterated its plan to ship a second-generation drive by 2005 that offers a 50GB capacity and 22MBps data transfer rate. Third-generation products will double those figures."
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2003/12/02/sony_ships_bluray_23gb_storage/

How about holograhpic storage cards.
"Optware to Release 30 GB Holographic Card for Less than $1 at the End of 2006....The company has designed the card to be almost as large as a credit card for users' convenience. Optware said that, technically, the size can be reduced to that of a memory card."
http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/english/NEWS_EN/20050608/105586/

Compact flashcards now come in 4Gb sizes, SD cards in 1Gb size, Sony 2Gb Memory Stick Pro, etc and all are working on further increases in data storage. 4.7 Gb in a usb drive, probably no more than a couple of years away.

 

[YellowFever]

Last year IBM's R&D Division designed a storage device that stored 1 x Terabyte (A thousand gigabytes) onto a medium the size of a matchbox.

I have a hard drive on display in my office that is as big as a small form factor computer and it's only 3 megabyte. That HDD cost $250,000 to buy new. Within 10 years the drives were as big as 2 x sunglass cases and had 10 times the capacity and cost 1/1000th the price. 5 years after that the drive had shrunk by another 50% and now hold 350 gigabytes. and cost half the price.

Nothing is impossible. You can already buy USB HDD's that are 2 gig

Moores Law applies to more than just CPU power.

Sorry for the Necro-posting but I just had to laugh at that statement.

Wow, did things really change that fast?

4 years ago I thought a one gig USB was just about the apex of technology but here I am today just 4 years later with a 32gb usb on my keychain.

I'm sure that within 3 years some guy is going to read this and say something like, "32 gb on a USB?? God , that's so ancient!! LoL

 

[EnigmaNZ]

Sorry, too lazy to look for the original article, but a few months ago I was reading that standards have been created to allow manufacturors to create SD cards of up to, wait for it, 2Tb, two terrabyte, hell. A pastage stamp sized memory card that slips into a PDA with 2 Tb of storage. One day even that will seem laughable.

 

[highnndry]

I think on the DVD issue Bill Gates is right, My effin (sorry for the French) 42" Philips just died after only 3 years of use. I'm now in the market for a new TV again, the new models are internet ready for streaming, and some have hard drive installed in them to save movies.

I have watched a movie from Amazon on my low end DSL and I am quite amazed by the quality, no wonder all the retailers are selling TV bundled with blu-ray player. Because they are realizing the Blu-ray market is going to end as soon as online movies become more affordable, and on top of that it's convenient.

 

[Rayna]

I think on the DVD issue Bill Gates is right, My effin (sorry for the French) 42" Philips just died after only 3 years of use. I'm now in the market for a new TV again, the new models are internet ready for streaming, and some have hard drive installed in them to save movies.

I have watched a movie from Amazon on my low end DSL and I am quite amazed by the quality, no wonder all the retailers are selling TV bundled with blu-ray player. Because they are realizing the Blu-ray market is going to end as soon as online movies become more affordable, and on top of that it's convenient.

Everything is designed nowadays to die after a few years because technology jumps so quickly, you are now expected to upgrade all the time. Everything is made cheap and designed to make you buy the next model when it comes out.

Lets use phones for an example Phones, the brick phones were made sturdy so you could drop them, talk with them in the rain but you try that now.... they don't last long. These bricks lasted quite along time and considering what you put them through esp on the building site.

Now lets go to TV's I remember at my grandmothers house she had this old as TV, one of the first colour ones that came out. A big box which had dials on the front which you were able to adjust the saturation of the colours and didn't even have a remote. It was pretty cool. She had that up until a few years ago where my father made her get rid of it and get a LCD. She had this television for decades and it was still working. Of course not as clear and colourful as the new LCD she has (which will be dead in 3+ years)

Back then everything was designed to last now all this shit just falls apart. A New mobile every 18 months, new TV every few years, a new laptop every 3 or more often if you are running businesses.

I forgot what they called it, There is a name for this where everything is only designed to last a short while... The thing is it isn't much cheaper anyway, never would i want to spend 5k on a TV that will break after a few years only to have to go out and get another TV once again.

 

[Feanor]

Built in obscolescense is the term you're looking for.

 

[swerve]

Lets use phones for an example Phones, the brick phones were made sturdy so you could drop them, talk with them in the rain but you try that now.... they don't last long. These bricks lasted quite along time and considering what you put them through esp on the building site.

The only phone I ever ruined through getting it wet was in the 1990s. I've talked in the rain with newer phones with no trouble. I've dropped more phones than I care to remember, & never broken one.

If you want a phone for use on a building site, you can buy hardened, waterproof phones with hi-viz cases. They're more expensive than the bottom of the line standard phones, but they're much cheaper, lighter & tougher than their old brick equivalents. Try the Sonim range. I know people who have them, & can vouch that they have survived bouncing down mountainsides (not guaranteed to, mind), being landed on by a large person, & total immersion well past the official rating. Mountain bikers, skiers & climbers . . . There are other manufacturers, but I have no personal knowledge of their performance.

Of course not as clear and colourful as the new LCD she has (which will be dead in 3+ years)

I forget whether my LCD TV is 5 or 6 years old. Working perfectly. My last LCD monitor lasted 5 years, which annoyed me, because that's a much shorter life than my experience at work suggests is normal. I replaced it with one almost as old which I got secondhand, for a very small sum. There's a local shop with a large selection of old LCD monitors, mostly disposed of because they've been replaced by bigger ones, not because they've failed.