Reductions in numbers do not equate to reductions in capability, far from it.
The future RN is being planned and built around the two CVF platforms – I really think the term ‘impossible’ is just a little alarmist. The logic of two not three platforms is understandable, but two down to one is simply not viable.
I agree the loss of Sea Harriers is unfortunate and to some degree the result of penny pinching in the past (upgrading the FA2 from the old air frames rather than building on the Harrier II) but I think a calculated risk looking at how aircraft have been used in recent years i.e. ground attack. Don’t get me wrong, the JSF is required and in sufficient numbers, but at say 36 per platform this is well within scope.
Six T45 Destroyers (still hoping for two additional units) is a significant improvement in capability over the older T42’s and this confirms the RN firmly at the top table of European naval forces.
The plans for the replacement T22 and T23’s is under review. There will be replacements, but the numbers and types are to be determined. A real issue is the longer service times required for new vessels (consider the 50 year life for CVF and T45) so the need to get the right platform with sufficient growth potential is key as is understanding the likely requirement for platforms to 2060 and beyond...
The new Astute class SSNs are overdue but coming on stream, and the launch date for the first has now been confirmed for 2007.
A replacement decision for the Vanguard SSBN is approaching and the RN needs to watch the US to decide if extending the Vanguard SSBNs or building new is the better option. I suggest a good time to look at the appropriate mix of SSBN / SSN platforms and the option of combining the two into one type cannot be excluded. A reduced number of smaller diameter ‘strategic’ missiles together with land attack conventional and ssm types would make a future force of Astute batch II’s an interesting proposition. Pure conjecture of course.
I think in summary it has been good news of late for the RN amphibious capability; next comes the air defence destroyers (2009 on); followed by new carriers (2013 on); not forgetting of course new SSNs, support ships, and then future frigates in due course…
Quite an ambitious programme for any navy, and not something that can happen overnight. Smaller yes, more balanced and capable - absolutely