Surely the more sensible approach for the RAN, considering recruitment numbers and the need to keep other areas of the RAN at adequate strength (frigates, subs etc), a light carrier/LHD type thing would be more appropriate
With that in mind, i think the decision for 2 LHD's is the most sensible option, especially if they go for the Spanish design (which i hope they will) as it seems the most likely to be operating aircraft and therefore more easily put into a light carrier type role if required.
Because of the region Australia is in, i think smaller LHD's would benefit us a lot more than a carrier would, i came to that conclusion from comparing the number of times we may need to provide air cover to naval and land assets to the extent that a large carrier would be needed, to the amount of times we have needed to simply move troops/aslavs and supplies to areas that required them.
From that, i could only think of East Timor as a situation that may have warranted a large carrier, however, due to the relatively small area involved from Australia's north to East Timor and all of Indonesia, land based RAAF jets were within range (as discusses earlier in this thread).. While taking into consideration the amount of times we could have used an LHD i came up with quite a few, including East Timor, but also the Solomon Islands (previously and recently if the riots had continued), Indonesia during the tsunami aid, etc etc
As far as the future is concerned, and strengthening Indian and Chinese Navies (as discussed earlier), i can't really comment i don't know enough about each countries navy or possible desire to infringe upon our EEZ, but as others said, i think more subs would go a lot further to not only to deterring any such actions, but to taking care of those actions should they occur.
I think Australia is in quite a unique situation, as it has a huge coastline and area/region to patrol and look after, while constrained by a small population and as a result can't really acquire as many naval assets as it might require, (NZ is in a similar situation i think), so i'd agree that more subs would be a better choice than a large carrier, but i also think 2 LHD's is not enough, why not 3 or 4, (isn't 3 better for rotation purposes, and then 1 could also be used in a more, but not totally, dedicated light carrier role?)
Sorry for the long post, lol