Dispute of the Kuril Islands

[swerve]

Yeah, things aren't that simple. Russia needs the Kurils to maintain a strong power in the Pacific.

Afraid not.

To say the dispute is over 'the Kurils' is inaccurate. Japan accepts the loss of the Kuril islands, except for the three southernmost islands & the small Habomai group, some of which are so close to Hokkaido that they can be seen from the coast. i.e. the 1855 border. Japan disputes that these four are part of the Kurils.

The 20 or so other islands which came under Japanese control up to 1875, were formally recognised as Japanese in 1905, & seized by the USSR in 1945 were signed away by Japan in 1951, but the USSR did not sign that treaty, & its title to any of the islands is therefore uncertain. However, nobody else claims them. Possession of those undisputed islands is enough to give Russian unfettered access to the Pacific. It doesn't need the disputed ones.

The USSR agreed in 1956 that two small islands are Japanese territory (they were not even mentioned when the border was agree in 1855, it being thought they were too obviously part of Japan to be discussed), & agreed to hand them over when a peace treaty is signed with Japan, but since neither the USSR nor Russia has ever agreed such a treaty, they remain occupied. Putin offered in 2006 to return them if Japan gave up its claim on the other, larger two.

 

[rip]

Except that the USSR deported the Japanese population and repopulated the island with their own people. Now what would you do? Repatriate the former population of the Kurils? Then what would you do to the people who've been living there for the last ~65 years? Not so simple now, is it?

Can you give me a reference to your claim that there are no longer any people of Japanese decent on these islands? I am not saying that you are wrong but I would like a reference if you could point one out to me.

 

[Arthicrex]

Not really sure why Russia needs to send/deploy an amphibious ship to protect Kuril islands. Wouldn't it be cheaper just to put a small airbase/garrison there " a la Falklands?"

I don't think Mistral is much of a deterrent, it would have to be part of a task force with some more offensive weapons,no?

You are right. Mistral will not have much effect once a conflict breaks out there as it is pretty much defenceless and Russian pacific fleet does not have the means to protect it from possible JSDF attack.

I suspect it will be used for peace time tranport to maximize their asset in the region, because permanently stationing sizable troops on such remote islands would cost them too much resources.

 

[Feanor]

You are right. Mistral will not have much effect once a conflict breaks out there as it is pretty much defenceless and Russian pacific fleet does not have the means to protect it from possible JSDF attack.

I suspect it will be used for peace time tranport to maximize their asset in the region, because permanently stationing sizable troops on such remote islands would cost them too much resources.

They could form an escort group for one Mistral+landing ships to carry the 155th Marines to the Kurils. With the SMs near Khabarovsk they could probably make the trip.

As far as deportation sources go, try google. Even in English I came up with sources in a matter of seconds.

http://www.beinformedjournal.com/be...uril-islands-japans-bruised-feelings-fie.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/02/world/asia/02kuriles.html

Here are two articles that mention it.

 

[FormerDirtDart]

Russia seems to invest heavy in protecting the Kuril Islands in the far east. The islands has been claimed both by Russia and Japan during decades.

Resently it was announced that the first two Mistral class ampf vessels will be based in the Pacific Fleet to secure the Islands. Russian President Medvedev ealier ordered naval and ground-based units deployed on the disputed South Kuril Islands to be equipped with advanced weaponry.

A few days ago planns for deploying advanced S-400 longe range anti-air missile systems on the Islands was also announced.

Japan has responed that it will " closely watch this".

Why this sudden intrest from the Russians about this Islands? How will countrys in the area respond to this military buildup?

It's really not much of a "build up" when you consider that the first Russian Mistral won't be delivered until at least early 2014. And, that is before the Russian commence sea trials with it. I can't see the first vessel being anywhere near operational until at least 2016.

A great deal in the geopolitical environment can change by then.

 

[Feanor]

Mistrals are needed there either way. The announcement that they will go there came before the little fight with Japan. So that particular point is hardly relevant.

The real buildup is the Anti-Air Missile Bde and helo airbase that they're planning to add there. And of course the re-armament of the obsolete 18th PulAD. But even that is a minimal rebuilding of capabilities that existed there earlier.

 

[T.C.P]

Since Russai is so interested in upgrading its air defence system in the Kurils, then why not set up a fighter base there, or do they have one already or plan to have one?

 

[Feanor]

There aren't that many aircraft in the VVS. The place is within range of the Su-27SM and MiG-31 units in East MD.

 

[peschernik]

Russia should return the Kuril islands to Japan is she is interested for world peace and be a responsible regional power. I think Kuril islands rightfully belongs to Japan, it actually lost the islands from Russia at last part of WWII. In fact Russia invaded and occupied it from then and you look at the population demographics of the islands its mostly ethnic Asians with Japanese origins. Returning the islands to Japan will show a goodwill by Russia in peace and stability. It can also start closer relationship in trade and investment by Japanese to Russia and development of the islands by the Japanese.

May be. But Russia doesn't think like this. Till 1855 the Kuril islands were a part of the Russian Empire, and then, under the Japanese-Russian treatise about trade and borders («treatise Simodsky»), have been transferred to Japan. After defeat of Japan in the WW2 the islands have come back under jurisdiction of the USSR. Now Russia considers them as a military trophy.

 

[swerve]

Afraid that's wrong. In 1855 under the Treaty of Shimoda the border was demarcated, & it was agreed that the two largest of the four islands now disputed were part of Japan. The other two disputed islands (Habomai & Shikotan) were taken for granted as Japanese, not even considered worth mentioning. The other Kuril islands were recognised as Russian. There was no transfer of land.

The status of Sakhalin, which had settlers from both countries, was left unsettled.

In 1875, Russia transferred the other Kuril islands to Japan, & Japan dropped all claims to Sakhalin & recognised it as Russian, under the Treaty of St. Petersburg.

 

[drandul]

There is major reason why Japan will not get back all four islands that easy.
Whole Okhotsk sea considered by Russia as exclusive economical zone (EEZ). According to United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. It states that EEZ is sea area extends from the edge of the territorial sea out to 200 nautical miles from the baseline. Within this area, the coastal nation has sole exploitation rights over all natural resources( including biological). Distance between Sakhalin and Kunashir ( southern island) is about 165 miles. That makes Okhotsk see Russian Exclusive Economical zone.As you can see in news Russian coast guards regularly opens fire to prevent unlicensed fishery (actually more cases with Russian fishermans than Japanese ones). So in case of islands transfer there is so huge economical loss that no any agreement can refund. Islands as land itself have quite low value. Volcanic landscape makes it difficult to build-up military air base and weather conditions restricts regular civilian transportation. No any oil reserves around islands - as you can see islands are right on the edge of Eurasian Tectonic plate. But Okhotsk sea is extremely reach with biological resources. - One of largest whale populations, major red caviar source for world market and so on.. So whole that dispute is about resources of Okhotsk sea. that is the reason why japan do not agree to accept only part of islands.

 

[swerve]

Kunashir makes very little difference to the Russian EEZ. Half of it is masked from the Sea of Okhotsk by the NE peninsula of Hokkaido, & its EEZ would only add a small area to that already possessed by Japan in the southern part of the sea.

Iturup would make a much bigger difference to the EEZ.

Perhaps a compromise, in which Kunashir is returned to Japan in exchange for Japanese recognition of Iturup as Russian, would be possible.

 

[Feanor]

I seriously doubt that. The current Russian government can ill-afford to backpedal in that manner, after having repeatedly stated that all the islands are Russian and will not be handed over.

 

[rip]

I seriously doubt that. The current Russian government can ill-afford to backpedal in that manner, after having repeatedly stated that all the islands are Russian and will not be handed over.

I think that a comment made by the poster “Feanor” though he as yet has not confirmed it with a reference as I requested, is that the people living on the islands should have a say on who goverens them. So far all you guys are acting like self-determination doesn’t count. How many examples do you need to dispute that assumption?

 

[Arthicrex]

I think that a comment made by the poster “Feanor” though he as yet has not confirmed it with a reference as I requested, is that the people living on the islands should have a say on who goverens them. So far all you guys are acting like self-determination doesn’t count. How many examples do you need to dispute that assumption?

Feanor did give references. Quote from one of the links he posted.

Soviet forces occupied the southern islands in 1945, deporting their Japanese inhabitants and bringing in settlers. In the 1956 declaration that re-established ties between Russia and Japan, Russia offered to return two of the islands as part of a peace treaty. But Japan rejected that compromise, maintaining that all the islands should be returned, and the issue has never been resolved.

The deported Japanese are now all deceased or very old. Basically, the only people who care about the kurils in Japan are the ultra-right nut jobs and the local fishermen. Majority Japanese do not really care just like the mojority Russians do not even know about the issue. The whole thing is just the politicians on each side trying to appease nationalists.

 

[Feanor]

I think that a comment made by the poster “Feanor” though he as yet has not confirmed it with a reference as I requested, is that the people living on the islands should have a say on who goverens them. So far all you guys are acting like self-determination doesn’t count. How many examples do you need to dispute that assumption?

If you don't like my links, use google. Trust me it's not exactly top secret info.

 

[Feanor]

The deported Japanese are now all deceased or very old. Basically, the only people who care about the kurils in Japan are the ultra-right nut jobs and the local fishermen. Majority Japanese do not really care just like the mojority Russians do not even know about the issue. The whole thing is just the politicians on each side trying to appease nationalists.

Actually thanks to the recent diplomatic incidents the Russian public is now well aware of the situation, at least in vague and general terms. One of the major reasons that the Russian government can hardly afford to back pedal.

 

[Feanor]

Well I've found a fairly accurate list of what is nominally in service with the 18th PulAD.

Численность двухполкового состава дивизии напоминает обычную мотострелковую бригаду: всего около 3,5 тысяч солдат и офицеров. По утвержденному в 2009 году штату, на вооружении дивизии состоят 18 реактивных установок залпового огня БМ-21 «Град», 36 152-миллиметровых пушек «Гиацинт-Б», 12 самоходных зенитных огневых установок «Бук-1», 12 зенитных ракетных комплексов «Стрела-10», 12 зенитных самоходных установок ЗСУ-23-4 «Шилка», 18 122-миллиметровых гаубиц Д-30, 18 120-миллиметровых минометов «Поднос», 94 танка Т-80БВ.

To translate, 18 BM-21 Grad, 36 Giatsint-B, 12 Buk-1, 12 Strela-10, 12 ZSU-23-4 Shilka, 18 D-30, 18 120mm Podnos mortars, 94 T-80BV.

In addition to the dozens of JS-2, JS-3, and T-55s buried and used as stationary fire support.

Ìåäâåäåâ áðÿöàåò ñëîâàìè

 

[rip]

Well I've found a fairly accurate list of what is nominally in service with the 18th PulAD.



To translate, 18 BM-21 Grad, 36 Giatsint-B, 12 Buk-1, 12 Strela-10, 12 ZSU-23-4 Shilka, 18 D-30, 18 120mm Podnos mortars, 94 T-80BV.

In addition to the dozens of JS-2, JS-3, and T-55s buried and used as stationary fire support.

Ìåäâåäåâ áðÿöàåò ñëîâàìè

So is what you guys are saying, is that this issue will never go away, is unsolvable, and will be with us forever? That there is no solution that can satisfy both sides?

 

[Feanor]

So is what you guys are saying, is that this issue will never go away, is unsolvable, and will be with us forever? That there is no solution that can satisfy both sides?

The status quo more or less satisfies both sides. Within the realm of reality of course. Obviously Japan would prefer if Russia handed over the islands, but realistically Japan isn't going to go to war over it. And Russia won't give them up. They'll posture and show off (mostly for internal consumption) and then forget about it when it's not such a big news item anymore.