Dispute of the Kuril Islands

[Wall83]

Russia seems to invest heavy in protecting the Kuril Islands in the far east. The islands has been claimed both by Russia and Japan during decades.

Resently it was announced that the first two Mistral class ampf vessels will be based in the Pacific Fleet to secure the Islands. Russian President Medvedev ealier ordered naval and ground-based units deployed on the disputed South Kuril Islands to be equipped with advanced weaponry.

A few days ago planns for deploying advanced S-400 longe range anti-air missile systems on the Islands was also announced.

Japan has responed that it will " closely watch this".

Why this sudden intrest from the Russians about this Islands? How will countrys in the area respond to this military buildup?

Russia plans to send first Mistral ships to protect Kurils | Defense | RIA Novosti
Japan to closely watch Russia's military activity on south Kurils | Defense | RIA Novosti
S-400 missiles on Russia's Kuril Islands 'overkill' | Russia | RIA Novosti

 

[Feanor]

Well the second S-400 regiment (210th Air-Defense Regiment) was re-armed in West MD, Moscow region. I don't think we'll see another S-400 regiment in service until early next year, and I'm not sure it will go to the Kuril Islands. Much more likely, we'll see an S-300 units redeployed there.

The interest in the islands is that the current machine-gun artillery division deployed there is armed quite inadequately. It has some of the last T-55s in service, howitzers dating back to 1938, and in terms of air-defense, Strela-10 tac-SAMs. As the diplomatic scuffle with Japan escalates these antiquated defenses are clearly inadequate.

You'll be fascinated to know the unit still has T-34-85, JS-2 and JS-3 tanks. I don't know if they're nominally in service or not, but the physical vehicles are there. Some pics here: Ìèíèñòð îáîðîíû ïîîáåùàë ïåðåâîîðóæèòü 18 ïóëåì¸òíî-àðòèëëåðèéñêóþ äèâèçèþ » Âîåííîå îáîçðåíèå

Much more interesting news come here: ×åì ìîãóò óñèëèòü íàøó âîéñêîâóþ ãðóïïèðîâêó íà Êóðèëàõ — Þðèé Ãàâðèëîâ — "Îñòðîâà â îêåàíå" — Ðîññèéñêàÿ Ãàçåòà —  áëèæàéøèå äíè Ãåíøòàá ïðåäñòàâèò íà óòâåðæäåíèå ìèíèñòðó îáîðîíû äåòàëüíûé ïëàí ïåðåâîîðóæåíèÿ âîéñêîâîé ãðóï

There are plans to deploy PVO SV assets there, namely Buk and Tor systems, not the S-400 as was originally claimed. Additionally there are plans for new BMPs and BTRs (3's and 82s respectively I assume). There are also plans for repairing the airfield, and deploying combat helos there.

But so far all plans. As it stands the place is a fortified region (укрепрайон) from the early 60s.

 

[NICO]

Not really sure why Russia needs to send/deploy an amphibious ship to protect Kuril islands. Wouldn't it be cheaper just to put a small airbase/garrison there " a la Falklands?"

I don't think Mistral is much of a deterrent, it would have to be part of a task force with some more offensive weapons,no?

 

[Wall83]

Not really sure why Russia needs to send/deploy an amphibious ship to protect Kuril islands. Wouldn't it be cheaper just to put a small airbase/garrison there " a la Falklands?"

I don't think Mistral is much of a deterrent, it would have to be part of a task force with some more offensive weapons,no?

Send it out with the Slava class cruiser pacific flagship together with a Udulay destroyer and you got yourself a pretty strong task force.

 

[T.C.P]

Send it out with the Slava class cruiser pacific flagship together with a Udulay destroyer and you got yourself a pretty strong task force.

Sending that many powe ful ships could interpreted as a sign of serious agression, Russia doesn't want that, the defences of the Kurils are a bit out dated, Russia just wants to upgrade its defences, nothing offensive yet.

 

[Feanor]

Sending that many powe ful ships could interpreted as a sign of serious agression, Russia doesn't want that, the defences of the Kurils are a bit out dated, Russia just wants to upgrade its defences, nothing offensive yet.

They're talking about once war breaks out. The Mistral alone can't be used because it's a target with few defenses. It requires an escort.

 

[T.C.P]

They're talking about once war breaks out. The Mistral alone can't be used because it's a target with few defenses. It requires an escort.

They will probably use the Mistral as the command ship of the task force then.

 

[Feanor]

Most likely.

Also it seems we have it confirmed that the Buk systems will be the ones stationed on the islands.

ÀÐÌÑ-ÒÀÑÑ

 

[Feros Ferio]

Not really sure why Russia needs to send/deploy an amphibious ship to protect Kuril islands. Wouldn't it be cheaper just to put a small airbase/garrison there " a la Falklands?"

I don't think Mistral is much of a deterrent, it would have to be part of a task force with some more offensive weapons,no?

This is just a guess, but I think the reason Russia seeks to protect the Kurils with the S-300's and a Mistral or two (not to mention the rest of the Pacific Fleet), is that if it maintains control of these islands, it can claim almost the entire Sea of Okhotsk as its territorial waters. If Japan had the Kurils, then it would have a legit claim to much more of this maritime area. Furthermore, Japan will not go to war over the Kurils, but if Russia somehow was weakened and moved its forces off and away from the Kurils, Japan would surely find a pretext for re-occupying them, as they have wanted them back so badly, they have refused to sign a formal peace treaty with Russia since the end of WW2. So in this case, its better to have these in place in order to firmly back up claims to sovereignty, because as issues such as the Spratly Islands show, if one country cannot back up claims to sovereignty with a firm presence, another will try to move in that can.

Another possible reason (and when I say possible, I'm truly just doing some entertaining speculation), though maybe not the first in their minds, is that while relations between China and Russia are relatively good at the moment, China is beginning to get assertive about its maratime claims in the South China Sea, and elsewhere. Some may say that China wouldn't push its claims northward, but then, why are they building icebreakers?

This world isn't getting any bigger, just it's population and as the old saying goes "Possession is 9/10ths of the law".

 

[Feanor]

It seems the S-400 are indeed going east (though I suspect it will be 1-2 years before that happens) but not specifically to the Kuril Islands. The statement is about a third S-400 regiment somewhere in the Far East, my best guess would be Khabarovsk (with Vladivostok a close second).

Lenta.ru: Îðóæèå: Êîìïëåêñû Ñ-400 îòïðàâÿò íà Äàëüíèé Âîñòîê

I suspect this is all more for internal consumption at this point.

 

[peschernik]

Value of southern Kuriles is determined by business factor - the sea round islands richly bioresources.

There is still a factor of national prestige.

It is necessary to remember and about the military factor - passages of southern Kuriles provide to the ships of Pacific fleet "own" exit in open ocean. Other passages - Sangarsky and Tsusimsky - are supervised by foreign states, and passages of central and northern group of Kuriles are located much further to the north and much less mastered. Besides, they periodically freeze in the winter.

Even more important that in case of transition of Southern Kuriles to Japan Russia will lose possibility to supervise of the foreign ships and submarines to sea of Okhotsk which is area of an active service of missile underwater cruisers of strategic appointment of Pacific fleet. The probable opponent will have opportunity to establishments of tracking of the submarines in this area and their fast destruction in case of the conflict.

 

[T.C.P]

It seems the S-400 are indeed going east (though I suspect it will be 1-2 years before that happens) but not specifically to the Kuril Islands. The statement is about a third S-400 regiment somewhere in the Far East, my best guess would be Khabarovsk (with Vladivostok a close second).

Lenta.ru: Îðóæèå: Êîìïëåêñû Ñ-400 îòïðàâÿò íà Äàëüíèé Âîñòîê

I suspect this is all more for internal consumption at this point.

What threat does Russia face in the Far East that it is setting up an entire S-400 regiment there, China??

 

[Wall83]

It seems the S-400 are indeed going east (though I suspect it will be 1-2 years before that happens) but not specifically to the Kuril Islands. The statement is about a third S-400 regiment somewhere in the Far East, my best guess would be Khabarovsk (with Vladivostok a close second).

Lenta.ru: Îðóæèå: Êîìïëåêñû Ñ-400 îòïðàâÿò íà Äàëüíèé Âîñòîê

I suspect this is all more for internal consumption at this point.

Acording to this the S-400 are already in service in the far east.

Russia deploys S-400 air defense systems in Far East | Defense | RIA Novosti

 

[peschernik]

What threat does Russia face in the Far East that it is setting up an entire S-400 regiment there, China??

Not China. Japan. On Hokkaido (next to Kuriles island), is Japanese tank division, 3 infantry divisions, almost one hundred helicopters, the Air Forces can expose 200 fighters Ф-15, not less than 100 Ф-2 (planes of Japanese production on the basis of Ф-16), 100 Ф-4 - multi-purpose fighters of land support. Alsow there is Naval Forces of Japan (include 1 helicopter carrier).

 

[Feanor]

Acording to this the S-400 are already in service in the far east.

Russia deploys S-400 air defense systems in Far East | Defense | RIA Novosti

No. That's wrong. The only on duty S-400 regiment is at Elektrostal, Moscow Region, West MD. The second regiment is at Kapustin Yar right now, it will enter duty around Dimitrovo, Moscow Region, in March.

They are planning on putting the third in East MD sometime in the future.

Realistically we need multiple S-400 regiments in the Far East for protecting TOF HQ in Vladivostok, East MD HQ in Khabarovks, and the multiple airbases with MiG-31 and Su-27SM.

 

[HKP]

Russia should return the Kuril islands to Japan is she is interested for world peace and be a responsible regional power. I think Kuril islands rightfully belongs to Japan, it actually lost the islands from Russia at last part of WWII. In fact Russia invaded and occupied it from then and you look at the population demographics of the islands its mostly ethnic Asians with Japanese origins. Returning the islands to Japan will show a goodwill by Russia in peace and stability. It can also start closer relationship in trade and investment by Japanese to Russia and development of the islands by the Japanese.

 

[T.C.P]

Russia should return the Kuril islands to Japan is she is interested for world peace and be a responsible regional power. I think Kuril islands rightfully belongs to Japan, it actually lost the islands from Russia at last part of WWII. In fact Russia invaded and occupied it from then and you look at the population demographics of the islands its mostly ethnic Asians with Japanese origins. Returning the islands to Japan will show a goodwill by Russia in peace and stability. It can also start closer relationship in trade and investment by Japanese to Russia and development of the islands by the Japanese.

Yeah, things aren't that simple. Russia needs the Kurils to maintain a strong power in the Pacific. Russia might say that it is interested in world peace, but at the end of the day the main objective of every single country is to make themselves more powerful and richer( not that I think there is anything wrong with that, its just the way of the world)

 

[rip]

Yeah, things aren't that simple. Russia needs the Kurils to maintain a strong power in the Pacific. Russia might say that it is interested in world peace, but at the end of the day the main objective of every single country is to make themselves more powerful and richer( not that I think there is anything wrong with that, its just the way of the world)

I think the explanation of why Russia wants to hold on to the Kuril Islands is simpler. They do not have significant mineral, human, or biologic resources and what resources they do have Russia does not have the money to properly exploit or more accurately they have better places to put their investment money than there. If you want a reason, how about Payback for the Russo-Japanese War 1904-1905. The Russians can hold a grudge.

 

[Feanor]

Russia should return the Kuril islands to Japan is she is interested for world peace and be a responsible regional power. I think Kuril islands rightfully belongs to Japan, it actually lost the islands from Russia at last part of WWII. In fact Russia invaded and occupied it from then and you look at the population demographics of the islands its mostly ethnic Asians with Japanese origins. Returning the islands to Japan will show a goodwill by Russia in peace and stability. It can also start closer relationship in trade and investment by Japanese to Russia and development of the islands by the Japanese.

Except that the USSR deported the Japanese population and repopulated the island with their own people. Now what would you do? Repatriate the former population of the Kurils? Then what would you do to the people who've been living there for the last ~65 years? Not so simple now, is it?

 

[Arthicrex]

Not China. Japan. On Hokkaido (next to Kuriles island), is Japanese tank division, 3 infantry divisions, almost one hundred helicopters, the Air Forces can expose 200 fighters Ф-15, not less than 100 Ф-2 (planes of Japanese production on the basis of Ф-16), 100 Ф-4 - multi-purpose fighters of land support. Alsow there is Naval Forces of Japan (include 1 helicopter carrier).

Actually, JGSDF has 1 mechanized infantry division, 1 armored division, 2 combined arms brigades, 1 artillery brigade and 1 AAA brigade stationed in Hokkaido. JASDF has 2 squadrons of F-15s and 2 squadrons of F-2s plus 2 SAM groups in the sector.