Deployment of USN in a possible Taiwan conflict

[Francois]

40 ka-29 bought recently just for amphibious assault
1+ 071 LPD (not sure how large exactly, probably in the 15000 tonne range)
As for the 072 series, a little breakdown:
Just to sum up the LST inventory at this time, there might be more now, this is a list compiled by CDF a while back:
072III (Imp Yuting class): 11: 911-913, 918, 987, 992-997
072II (Yuting class): 11: 991, 934-940, 908-910
072 (Yukan class): 7: 927-933

for 073,
073 Yudao: 1: 965
073II Yudeng: 1: 990
073III: 6(9?): 941-943?, 944-949

Funny thing is that almost all amphibs are based in South Sea Fleet...

For example:
http://www.sinodefence.com/navy/orbat/southseafleet.asp

Landing ships X 17+: Including 10 Type 072II (Yuting class) LST , 7 Type 072 (Yukan class) LST, 4 Qiongsha class troop transport ships, a hospital ship, and 4 Yudao class LSMs

While http://www.sinodefence.com/navy/orbat/eastseafleet.asp (in charge of Taiwan Straight): nada!

Makes me think that Taiwan is an excuse for the build up, and to distract ppl from the REAL goal of China...

The big fight is not going to be in the East or North.

 

[Francois]

Lately, was an article about making Hainan a chinese "Guam" and to base there submarines and the future helo carrier fleet.
The picture is getting clearer everyday...

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

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[aprasadi]

I dont believe USA will ever directly get involved in war with china over issue of taiwan. The reason are numerous from commercial to military. Though USA will be involved ,but indirectly by giving passive support. USA will bring in UN,NATO to settle down the matter diplomatically and will give warning to china. Its impossible for USA to take on China alone ,as china is too far from US main land. it will be a hell diffcult for US to maintain supply chain for its armed forces. It will take atleast(min) 15 days to deploy all the three forces naval,airforce,army in full strength for US. And within those 15 days china can flush taiwan inside out.
Also no one can stop the invading land forces just using airforce and navy when the taiwan strait itself is so small...and during that time PLAN & PLAAF wont sit idle so that they are bombed. How can during first 2-3 days of onslaught by china can US 150(max) planes+ 100 Japan+ 200 Taiwan take on the mighty 2000 planes of china. Also during initial landing or airdrop PLAN will cause blockade of taiwan strait from all sides leaving no space for US or japanies navy to open up and fight.

 

[Markus40]

This is a really tricky question over Taiwan, when there is a lot US investment and international investment in Taiwan, and i really dont think the EU will be looking at getting involved in this one either. China has become the worlds largest trading partner and they can hold many countries to ransom, if any country take the side of Taiwan. There is the US long standing war commitment in Iraq and i dare say when finished the military might be licking its wounds for years to come. The prospect of sending more soldiers to Taiwan to fight another war when they havent finished the one in Iraq, is not possible in my opinion, despite my belief that a Taiwan/US led defense of the homeland would stop the Chinese in their tracks.

I do agree it is possible however, that the US give intelligence and military hardware to the Taiwanese to fight the chinese, and it is said that the Taiwanese war fighting machine is well oiled and well equiped. I personally dont think the chinese are going to send men and warships across the straights and take Taiwan. If the US did take up position with the 7th fleet with their stealth subs, im afraid the chinese wont stand a chance on this one. Still, its a 50/50 situation and its really hard to say whether the US would take on the role of guardian when they havent finished their war in Iraq and Afganistan. The Taiwan strait will be very busy with missiles being launched everywhere. As to the number of aircraft, i would say that the odds were even despite the imbalance in numbers. Sustainability will be the key, to winning this war, and lets hope it never happens.

I dont believe USA will ever directly get involved in war with china over issue of taiwan. The reason are numerous from commercial to military. Though USA will be involved ,but indirectly by giving passive support. USA will bring in UN,NATO to settle down the matter diplomatically and will give warning to china. Its impossible for USA to take on China alone ,as china is too far from US main land. it will be a hell diffcult for US to maintain supply chain for its armed forces. It will take atleast(min) 15 days to deploy all the three forces naval,airforce,army in full strength for US. And within those 15 days china can flush taiwan inside out.
Also no one can stop the invading land forces just using airforce and navy when the taiwan strait itself is so small...and during that time PLAN & PLAAF wont sit idle so that they are bombed. How can during first 2-3 days of onslaught by china can US 150(max) planes+ 100 Japan+ 200 Taiwan take on the mighty 2000 planes of china. Also during initial landing or airdrop PLAN will cause blockade of taiwan strait from all sides leaving no space for US or japanies navy to open up and fight.

 

[contedicavour]

Rather sad because China Defense forum had a very good and very detailed discussion thread on this (before it was hacked a few weeks back).

Basically imhv China has developed an ability to sustain a cross straits landing.

Principally and very broadly,

(i) China can take out the Hawk SAMs defending on a narrow coastal frontage (Harpys, SSMs, KD63 ALCMs);

(ii) Utilise its air defence DDGs to maintain a continuous SAM coverage;

(iii) Possess significant amphibious landing capabilities wrt amph tank landings (incl firing whilst in water movement) and logistics support (with continual improvements ie new port in Fujian and UAV support);

(iv) Possess an adequate air force to defend the cross straits landing with an advantage in numbers;

(v) Possess sufficient anti-ship capabilities in airforce and subs to deter ROCN attempts to disrupt operations in the straits;

(vi) Possess sufficient artillery support eg 200km ranged MRLs; etc

Force on force comparisons is unrealistic. The ROCA cannot be everywhere at anyone time and recall, redeployment will take time. There are efforts to mechanise and improve redeployment timings.

>100+ Mi17s (and increasing every year) alone can deploy over 3,000 troops per sortie. I think I estimated 5-6 sorties could be made within 1 day.

As with any assault, this is not guaranteed and very much dependent on attrition losses. It is also incredibly complex in planning. However, this capability is continually improving everyday as we speak/type.

What about mobile coastal missile batteries in Taiwan ? Hsiung Feng can be launched from trucks and its movements are frequent enough to make them hard targets to destroy.
Also, the ROC Navy has 50+ small and very agile FAC(M)s that can launch the same missile while remaining hidden along the coastline.
A lot of trouble ahead for any fleet of LSTs approaching Taiwan's coastline, even supposing the Chinese PLA Air Force had indeed won air superiority.

cheers

 

[contedicavour]

I dont believe USA will ever directly get involved in war with china over issue of taiwan. The reason are numerous from commercial to military. Though USA will be involved ,but indirectly by giving passive support. USA will bring in UN,NATO to settle down the matter diplomatically and will give warning to china. Its impossible for USA to take on China alone ,as china is too far from US main land. it will be a hell diffcult for US to maintain supply chain for its armed forces. It will take atleast(min) 15 days to deploy all the three forces naval,airforce,army in full strength for US. And within those 15 days china can flush taiwan inside out.
Also no one can stop the invading land forces just using airforce and navy when the taiwan strait itself is so small...and during that time PLAN & PLAAF wont sit idle so that they are bombed. How can during first 2-3 days of onslaught by china can US 150(max) planes+ 100 Japan+ 200 Taiwan take on the mighty 2000 planes of china. Also during initial landing or airdrop PLAN will cause blockade of taiwan strait from all sides leaving no space for US or japanies navy to open up and fight.

Among the 2000 Chinese planes you wrote about, there are only 300 decently modern air-to-air combat fighters. To be accurate, 176 SU-30MKK and 105 locally built SU-27SK/J11, plus a few J-10s. The rest is obsolete and could be easily destroyed by Amraam-equipped F15s and F16s.

On your other assumption, that a blockade of Taiwan would close it to any reinforcements from the US or Japan, come on... the USN SSNs (Improved LA and Seawolf and Virginia) are so vastly superior to the Han SSNs (the first Type93 SSN being still in trial) or to the Kilo, improved Kilo and Song SSKs in the open ocean, both qualitatively and quantitatively, that any PLAN vessel east of Taiwan would be sunk in a few hours it the US decided to send a message to Beijing without risking the consequences of an attack on the mainland.

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

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