Deployment of USN in a possible Taiwan conflict

brian00

New Member
I'm guessing USN would deploy 4 or 5 Carrier battle groups.

Do you think tactics would be similiar to the Falklands campaign with the main task force positioned behind the island, with Arleigh Burke destoyers positioned in forward and flanking positions?
 

Sea Toby

New Member
Unlike the British navy during the Falklands conflict, the Amerian navy has Hawkeyes, AEW aircraft. There would be no need for the Americans to deploy radar pickets in hopes of gaining earlier radar warning. Outside of submarines, I doubt whether the American navy would send any ships west of Taiwan.

The Chinese have many more fighters than Argentina, therefore the battle of attrition would last longer. I presume the Chinese will have much more difficulty in taking Taiwan, there is a good chance the American Air Force, along with its Army, will be able to reach Taiwan before its taken.

Plus Taiwan isn't defenseless like the Falklands were. They will put up a good fight defending their nation. Frankly, I don't see any similarities with the Falklands whatsoever.
 

brian00

New Member
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So you dont think the task force would deploy behind the island?

Also deploying forward units would draw fire from the chinese, better that their missiles hit a forward unit rather than the task force...
 

typhoons rule

New Member
to be honest i dont think america would intervene they would have before satalites and improved radio interception tech where like they are today becouse it was used i think as a spy island like iceland was or still is but not for much longer so i dont think they would becouse its not as usefll and not worth the war
 

Sea Toby

New Member
I don't think China has the capacity to invade Taiwan, they don't have enough sealift or airlift, and Taiwan has enough military strength to defend itself. Its my opinion China hopes to win an election in Taiwan, gaining Taiwan by the political process. Any invasion would surely be resisted fiercely, likely leveling Taiwan. It would take a lot of money and years to rebuild. Of course, I don't see any Chinese political victory or military victory presently.
 

contedicavour

New Member
Sea Toby said:
I don't think China has the capacity to invade Taiwan, they don't have enough sealift or airlift, and Taiwan has enough military strength to defend itself. Its my opinion China hopes to win an election in Taiwan, gaining Taiwan by the political process. Any invasion would surely be resisted fiercely, likely leveling Taiwan. It would take a lot of money and years to rebuild. Of course, I don't see any Chinese political victory or military victory presently.
Fully agree with you.
Besides, given the relatively small size of Taiwan, the airspace above it would not allow the Chinese air force to manoeuvre with anything like its full strength. This should allow the ROC air force and SAMs to handle wave after wave of incoming Chinese jets.
On the sea, the Chinese Navy cannot entirely blockade Taiwan (especially with USN ships around) though it could seriously harass all navigation by deploying tens of submarines tasked with attacking any unescorted ship going to Taiwanese harbors or coming out of them.
Last but not least, the Chinese LSTs aren't enough to land sufficient soldiers to overwhelm the ROC army, especially as it is deeply entrenched in heavily defended positions.
However, the Chinese could devastate Taiwan with their long-range missiles. This seems to me to be most unlikely to happen, as China wants Taiwan back, but not to the extent of destroying it. Economic development and social stability are much higher priorities than getting Taiwan back.

cheers
 

Big-E

Banned Member
contedicavour said:
On the sea, the Chinese Navy cannot entirely blockade Taiwan (especially with USN ships around) though it could seriously harass all navigation by deploying tens of submarines tasked with attacking any unescorted ship going to Taiwanese harbors or coming out of them.
cheers
Yes, but what about under the sea? PLAN is going to have alot of modern subs in the next decade or so. I think these could give ROC a real problem if PRC just sticks with a blockade. Without offensive action I think the US might stay out of it.
 

tphuang

Super Moderator
Well, the Taiwanese believe that the maximum they can last without or with minimal external help is a week. I'm not making this up. And the war scenario they ran contained a lot of rather stupid strategy on PLA side.

The question in any combat is how fast can PLA establish air superiority over Taiwan. And the second question is how fast can China knock out the Taiwanese SAMs and runways and shipyards and power stations and to what extent can it do so. I don't really want to go through the details, but Taiwan would be in a heap of trouble if the second part can be established fairly fast. And you are looking at all those ballistic missiles, LACMs and WS-1, WS-2 doing all the dirty work.

After that point, it will be the sea battle. If plaaf has established air superiority by this point, ROCN is in trouble. And then we have the question of landing and how many troops can be landed in Taiwan, you basically have the following:
about 50 IL-76 + any number that pla would be able to loan from the Russians during wartime.
x number of Y-8 + Y-9 (not sure how many)
40 ka-29 bought recently just for amphibious assault

1+ 071 LPD (not sure how large exactly, probably in the 15000 tonne range)

As for the 072 series, a little breakdown:
Just to sum up the LST inventory at this time, there might be more now, this is a list compiled by CDF a while back:
072III (Imp Yuting class): 11: 911-913, 918, 987, 992-997
072II (Yuting class): 11: 991, 934-940, 908-910
072 (Yukan class): 7: 927-933

for 073,
073 Yudao: 1: 965
073II Yudeng: 1: 990
073III: 6(9?): 941-943?, 944-949
 

contedicavour

New Member
tphuang said:
Well, the Taiwanese believe that the maximum they can last without or with minimal external help is a week. I'm not making this up. And the war scenario they ran contained a lot of rather stupid strategy on PLA side.

The question in any combat is how fast can PLA establish air superiority over Taiwan. And the second question is how fast can China knock out the Taiwanese SAMs and runways and shipyards and power stations and to what extent can it do so. I don't really want to go through the details, but Taiwan would be in a heap of trouble if the second part can be established fairly fast. And you are looking at all those ballistic missiles, LACMs and WS-1, WS-2 doing all the dirty work.

After that point, it will be the sea battle. If plaaf has established air superiority by this point, ROCN is in trouble. And then we have the question of landing and how many troops can be landed in Taiwan, you basically have the following:
about 50 IL-76 + any number that pla would be able to loan from the Russians during wartime.
x number of Y-8 + Y-9 (not sure how many)
40 ka-29 bought recently just for amphibious assault

1+ 071 LPD (not sure how large exactly, probably in the 15000 tonne range)

As for the 072 series, a little breakdown:
Just to sum up the LST inventory at this time, there might be more now, this is a list compiled by CDF a while back:
072III (Imp Yuting class): 11: 911-913, 918, 987, 992-997
072II (Yuting class): 11: 991, 934-940, 908-910
072 (Yukan class): 7: 927-933

for 073,
073 Yudao: 1: 965
073II Yudeng: 1: 990
073III: 6(9?): 941-943?, 944-949
If China managed to reach Taiwan's coasts with 40 LSTs and 1 LPD, it would approximately land 40x400 + 1x500 = 16500 soldiers/marines in one go. Even with 50 IL-76 we're talking 17000 personnel with approx 40x10+1x50=450 APCs and MBT (though not the heaviest copies of T-72). Taiwan has enough manpower and equipment and heavily defended positions to stop this. Though I agree if wave after wave kept arriving, at one point defences would break down. This would mean however some 40,000-50,000 Chinese casualties at a minimum. I hope politicians are responsible enough to refuse even to consider such a scenario.
Besides, even with Democrats in the White House, I doubt the US would stand by and refuse to help, unless the ROC did something really provocative such as declaring outright independence and answer back to the Chinese missiles with counterattacks of their own on mainland cities. Brr all this is really a nightmare scenario:bum
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
This is a highly difficult topic, because although TP is right to say that Taiwan wouldn't be able to hold out that long, there is the issue of how China builds up its forces.

Remember it would take a considerable amount of time to prepare all the men, equipment, ships, etc. Now there is little chance China could conceal this from the Americans, even the Taiwanese. So that would give them advanced warning and allow the US Navy to reach Taiwan more quickly.

By the way, TP, although the exercises did see some debatable tactics from the PRC, Taiwanese defence forces made mistakes as well because of a communications breakdown, which were fatal. They're obviously making note of those problems, so won't make the same mistakes twice. Apart from that, previous landings were repulsed.
 

tphuang

Super Moderator
The problem with the Taiwanese simulations is that they severely underestimated the capabilities of certain PLA platforms. For example, certain ships are simulated using much shorter ranged AShMs and such. As for the landing, I'm assuming at the point of landing, PLA has already achieved complete air superiority, so it's troops will have WZ-10 and WZ-9G support and ground attacking aircraft eliminating certain targets.

Of course, if USN is involved, the entire situation is changed. And then there is also the question of what happens if PLA does manage to take Taiwan before USN can be involved (very unlikely). In which case, I really don't think pla can hold Taiwan.
 

contedicavour

New Member
tphuang said:
The problem with the Taiwanese simulations is that they severely underestimated the capabilities of certain PLA platforms. For example, certain ships are simulated using much shorter ranged AShMs and such. As for the landing, I'm assuming at the point of landing, PLA has already achieved complete air superiority, so it's troops will have WZ-10 and WZ-9G support and ground attacking aircraft eliminating certain targets.

Of course, if USN is involved, the entire situation is changed. And then there is also the question of what happens if PLA does manage to take Taiwan before USN can be involved (very unlikely). In which case, I really don't think pla can hold Taiwan.
Could you provide me with more background on this defence exercise in Taiwan please ? Which assumptions were taken in terms of strength of the hypothetic Chinese PLAN naval contingent, for example ?

thanks in advance

cheers
 

tphuang

Super Moderator
there was more information a while back, but this is all I can find right now. Kidd class is mentionned here, since it will probably be center to any kind of Air Defense strategy of Taiwan.
Taiwan's Defense Ministry: Kidd-class destroyers do well in war games 5/12/2005 6:46:47 PM
From the Taipei Times:

COST-BENEFIT: It would take dozens of Chinese jets to sink a Kidd Class destroyer, according to the results of a computer simulation carried out by the defense ministry

The nation's Kidd-class destroyers can be sunk by the Chinese air force, the Ministry of National Defense said while officials made public the result of a computerized simulation of the annual Han Kuang military exercise during a press conference yesterday morning.

"According to the simulation, at least one of our Kidd Class destroyers will be sunk by the Chinese air force's SU-30 jet fighters," said Rear Adimral Lee Hao (李皓), the director of the ministry's Joint Warfare Exercise Center.

The simulation was designed to predict the outcome of a military confrontation between China and Taiwan in a sea battle in the Taiwan Strait.

Two Kidd Class destroyers were involved in the simulated battle.

Lee said that in the simulation, the destroyers made a good contribution, as the two vessels successfully attracted most of the enemy fire. The ships were also able to destroy 19 of the short-range ballistic missiles China had deployed on its southeastern coast.

During an attack from 40 Chinese jet fighters, the destroyer shot down 16 of them but eventually was struck by a rocket fired by an SU-30 and sank.

Rear Admiral Lee Hao, director of the Ministry of National Defense's Joint Warfare Exercise Center, explains the results of a computer simulation ahead of the annual Han Kuang military exercise during a press conference yesterday morning.

"The ship helped us frustrate 40 percent of the enemy's invading force before it could reach Taiwan's shores," Lee said. "For us, that is the main purpose for our Kidd Class destroyers."

In the meantime, the same result also showed that the Chinese military will need more than two weeks to prepare for a campaign at sea. As a result, the ministry also announced that the country's current force would be able to defend Taiwan for more than two weeks if a war between Taiwan and China breaks out.

"The ship helped us frustrate 40 percent of the enemy's invading force before it could reach Taiwan's shores. For us, that is the main purpose for our Kidd-class destroyers."

In addition to the computer simulation, the ministry also announced that the annual Han Kuang military exercise will be held sometime between June and August, which will help gauge the accuracy of the simulation.

In 2001, the military asked the US to sell it four Arleigh Burke-class destroyers equipped with AEGIS defense systems, which are designed to detect and attack dozens of aircraft and ships simultaneously. However, the US only agreed to sell Taiwan four older Kidd-class destroyers. The first Kidd-class destroyer will arrive in Taiwan by the end of the year.

The four Kidd-class destroyers, which were originally built for the Shah of Iran, employed the most technologically advanced radars and anti-aircraft missile launchers in the world, and are among the most powerful anti-air and all purpose destroyers.

The US navy stopped using all Kidd-class destroyers in 1981, after the Shah's government collapsed amid the Iranian revolution. For this reason, they are often referred to as the "Ayatollah-class."
 

contedicavour

New Member
Thanks for the article. So it was all a computerized simulation...
What is most interesting is the use of Kidds to destroy tens of incoming Chinese ballistic missiles. Even without Aegis, these DDGs are still amazingly useful.

cheers
 

RubiconNZ

The Wanderer
Tops!

contedicavour said:
Thanks for the article. So it was all a computerized simulation...
What is most interesting is the use of Kidds to destroy tens of incoming Chinese ballistic missiles. Even without Aegis, these DDGs are still amazingly useful.

cheers
I know talk about a glowing report from just about everything read about them, I guess when money is no object you get premium, thank goodness they were not delivered before thinks went south in Iran, can you imagine the effect it would of had, well the exercise shows alot of the impact. I wonder what further upgrade was given during reactivation, more than will be available for public knowledge I think.
 

contedicavour

New Member
robsta83 said:
I know talk about a glowing report from just about everything read about them, I guess when money is no object you get premium, thank goodness they were not delivered before thinks went south in Iran, can you imagine the effect it would of had, well the exercise shows alot of the impact. I wonder what further upgrade was given during reactivation, more than will be available for public knowledge I think.
Yes I guess it would have been a disaster had the Iranian regime got hold of the Kidds... though without US support the supply of SM-2 missiles would have run out quickly. A bit like the Tomcats, with only 20 or so still flying today vs the 79 ordered.

cheers
 

Magoo

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
There's so many political and tactical "what ifs" surrounding a China vs Taiwan conflict, that it makes a fascinating message board topic.

My thoughts are that China, is they're smart enough, which they are, will wait the Taiwanese out and wait for a political solution to present itself. The Chinese don't think in terms of weeks, months or years, they think in decades or generations when they're planning things like this.

I suspect the missiles they have pointed at Taiwan are probably conventionally armed and are there mainly to keep Taiwan (and the US) on her toes, nothing more. There would be absolutely no strategic or economic benefit whatsoever to the Chinese in nuking a small island like Taiwan, even with 'precision' nukes. In fact, it would have a massive negative affect on the Chinese economy which is Taiwan's biggest trading partner.

China doesn't need to invade Taiwan to bring it back into the fold...it can wait out the current seperatist regime which is pushing for independence but will likely not get it. It can look for ways to influence Taiwanese politics from afar and get a friendlier regime eventually installed, and then progressively introduce closer and closer ties until re-unification is just a formality.

However, if I'm wrong and it did come to war, it would more likely occur over disputed (and resource rich) territory such as the Spratly Islands, or perhaps some of the smaller islands in the Taiwan Straits. The US would be there, probably with two or three CBGs standing off to the east, but more likely with so many subs you could walk across the Straits if they all surfaced at once! There aint no way a sea-borne invasion force would even be able to make steam before being turned back.

As for an airborne invasion, there aren't enough aircraft in all the world to do it solely this way. If they could get through, which is unlikely, the aircraft would just be dropping special forces near strategic targets.

A Chinese blockade of the island is a possibility, but again, the US, Japan, South Korea etc would be drawn into such a scenario with predictable results.

Magoo
 
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contedicavour

New Member
Unless the ROC pushes too hard for outright independence and ends up upsetting the US, who do not want provocative gestures...

There are pretty clear though unwritten rules on which lines both China and the ROC should not cross : China will not attack as long as ROC doesn't declare independence, and the ROC will be left in peace if it doesn't. Sounds a bit like blackmail but it has worked fine for decades and both Chinese governments have successfully developed their economies in the meanwhile.

In the meanwhile, just in case, if I where the ROC I would try to get the first 4 Ticonderogas CGs from the USN, who is deleting them because they have no VLS (but they have AEGIS...).

cheers
 

RubiconNZ

The Wanderer
CG's

It will be intresting to see who picks them up they've got at least 15 years left, in terms of Hull age averages, have the Tico's been added to the reserve fleet, or will they be stricken from the lists?
 
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