Fully agree with you.Sea Toby said:I don't think China has the capacity to invade Taiwan, they don't have enough sealift or airlift, and Taiwan has enough military strength to defend itself. Its my opinion China hopes to win an election in Taiwan, gaining Taiwan by the political process. Any invasion would surely be resisted fiercely, likely leveling Taiwan. It would take a lot of money and years to rebuild. Of course, I don't see any Chinese political victory or military victory presently.
Yes, but what about under the sea? PLAN is going to have alot of modern subs in the next decade or so. I think these could give ROC a real problem if PRC just sticks with a blockade. Without offensive action I think the US might stay out of it.contedicavour said:On the sea, the Chinese Navy cannot entirely blockade Taiwan (especially with USN ships around) though it could seriously harass all navigation by deploying tens of submarines tasked with attacking any unescorted ship going to Taiwanese harbors or coming out of them.
cheers
If China managed to reach Taiwan's coasts with 40 LSTs and 1 LPD, it would approximately land 40x400 + 1x500 = 16500 soldiers/marines in one go. Even with 50 IL-76 we're talking 17000 personnel with approx 40x10+1x50=450 APCs and MBT (though not the heaviest copies of T-72). Taiwan has enough manpower and equipment and heavily defended positions to stop this. Though I agree if wave after wave kept arriving, at one point defences would break down. This would mean however some 40,000-50,000 Chinese casualties at a minimum. I hope politicians are responsible enough to refuse even to consider such a scenario.tphuang said:Well, the Taiwanese believe that the maximum they can last without or with minimal external help is a week. I'm not making this up. And the war scenario they ran contained a lot of rather stupid strategy on PLA side.
The question in any combat is how fast can PLA establish air superiority over Taiwan. And the second question is how fast can China knock out the Taiwanese SAMs and runways and shipyards and power stations and to what extent can it do so. I don't really want to go through the details, but Taiwan would be in a heap of trouble if the second part can be established fairly fast. And you are looking at all those ballistic missiles, LACMs and WS-1, WS-2 doing all the dirty work.
After that point, it will be the sea battle. If plaaf has established air superiority by this point, ROCN is in trouble. And then we have the question of landing and how many troops can be landed in Taiwan, you basically have the following:
about 50 IL-76 + any number that pla would be able to loan from the Russians during wartime.
x number of Y-8 + Y-9 (not sure how many)
40 ka-29 bought recently just for amphibious assault
1+ 071 LPD (not sure how large exactly, probably in the 15000 tonne range)
As for the 072 series, a little breakdown:
Just to sum up the LST inventory at this time, there might be more now, this is a list compiled by CDF a while back:
072III (Imp Yuting class): 11: 911-913, 918, 987, 992-997
072II (Yuting class): 11: 991, 934-940, 908-910
072 (Yukan class): 7: 927-933
for 073,
073 Yudao: 1: 965
073II Yudeng: 1: 990
073III: 6(9?): 941-943?, 944-949
Could you provide me with more background on this defence exercise in Taiwan please ? Which assumptions were taken in terms of strength of the hypothetic Chinese PLAN naval contingent, for example ?tphuang said:The problem with the Taiwanese simulations is that they severely underestimated the capabilities of certain PLA platforms. For example, certain ships are simulated using much shorter ranged AShMs and such. As for the landing, I'm assuming at the point of landing, PLA has already achieved complete air superiority, so it's troops will have WZ-10 and WZ-9G support and ground attacking aircraft eliminating certain targets.
Of course, if USN is involved, the entire situation is changed. And then there is also the question of what happens if PLA does manage to take Taiwan before USN can be involved (very unlikely). In which case, I really don't think pla can hold Taiwan.
Taiwan's Defense Ministry: Kidd-class destroyers do well in war games 5/12/2005 6:46:47 PM
From the Taipei Times:
COST-BENEFIT: It would take dozens of Chinese jets to sink a Kidd Class destroyer, according to the results of a computer simulation carried out by the defense ministry
The nation's Kidd-class destroyers can be sunk by the Chinese air force, the Ministry of National Defense said while officials made public the result of a computerized simulation of the annual Han Kuang military exercise during a press conference yesterday morning.
"According to the simulation, at least one of our Kidd Class destroyers will be sunk by the Chinese air force's SU-30 jet fighters," said Rear Adimral Lee Hao (李皓), the director of the ministry's Joint Warfare Exercise Center.
The simulation was designed to predict the outcome of a military confrontation between China and Taiwan in a sea battle in the Taiwan Strait.
Two Kidd Class destroyers were involved in the simulated battle.
Lee said that in the simulation, the destroyers made a good contribution, as the two vessels successfully attracted most of the enemy fire. The ships were also able to destroy 19 of the short-range ballistic missiles China had deployed on its southeastern coast.
During an attack from 40 Chinese jet fighters, the destroyer shot down 16 of them but eventually was struck by a rocket fired by an SU-30 and sank.
Rear Admiral Lee Hao, director of the Ministry of National Defense's Joint Warfare Exercise Center, explains the results of a computer simulation ahead of the annual Han Kuang military exercise during a press conference yesterday morning.
"The ship helped us frustrate 40 percent of the enemy's invading force before it could reach Taiwan's shores," Lee said. "For us, that is the main purpose for our Kidd Class destroyers."
In the meantime, the same result also showed that the Chinese military will need more than two weeks to prepare for a campaign at sea. As a result, the ministry also announced that the country's current force would be able to defend Taiwan for more than two weeks if a war between Taiwan and China breaks out.
"The ship helped us frustrate 40 percent of the enemy's invading force before it could reach Taiwan's shores. For us, that is the main purpose for our Kidd-class destroyers."
In addition to the computer simulation, the ministry also announced that the annual Han Kuang military exercise will be held sometime between June and August, which will help gauge the accuracy of the simulation.
In 2001, the military asked the US to sell it four Arleigh Burke-class destroyers equipped with AEGIS defense systems, which are designed to detect and attack dozens of aircraft and ships simultaneously. However, the US only agreed to sell Taiwan four older Kidd-class destroyers. The first Kidd-class destroyer will arrive in Taiwan by the end of the year.
The four Kidd-class destroyers, which were originally built for the Shah of Iran, employed the most technologically advanced radars and anti-aircraft missile launchers in the world, and are among the most powerful anti-air and all purpose destroyers.
The US navy stopped using all Kidd-class destroyers in 1981, after the Shah's government collapsed amid the Iranian revolution. For this reason, they are often referred to as the "Ayatollah-class."
I know talk about a glowing report from just about everything read about them, I guess when money is no object you get premium, thank goodness they were not delivered before thinks went south in Iran, can you imagine the effect it would of had, well the exercise shows alot of the impact. I wonder what further upgrade was given during reactivation, more than will be available for public knowledge I think.contedicavour said:Thanks for the article. So it was all a computerized simulation...
What is most interesting is the use of Kidds to destroy tens of incoming Chinese ballistic missiles. Even without Aegis, these DDGs are still amazingly useful.
cheers
Yes I guess it would have been a disaster had the Iranian regime got hold of the Kidds... though without US support the supply of SM-2 missiles would have run out quickly. A bit like the Tomcats, with only 20 or so still flying today vs the 79 ordered.robsta83 said:I know talk about a glowing report from just about everything read about them, I guess when money is no object you get premium, thank goodness they were not delivered before thinks went south in Iran, can you imagine the effect it would of had, well the exercise shows alot of the impact. I wonder what further upgrade was given during reactivation, more than will be available for public knowledge I think.