Cuban Military

[contedicavour]

If the Cuban military really were interesting in becoming a threat again, all they'd have to do is buy Grumble missiles or evolved versions of it. They could hit almost all US planes taking off from south Florida airbases

Navy-wise, they could buy some small special ops minisubs such as the Mala ones the former Yugoslavia built. They could approach US naval bases and be quite a nuisance.

Army-wise, they could pile up some ex Russian 152mm artillery close to Guantanamo. That would be quite a threat even if the US could use anti-artillery radars to shoot back.

cheers

 

[.pt]

Yes they could, but what´s the point? Castro is with one foot in the grave, and there´s a possibility of lifting, or easing the 40 year embargo, within a short time, i think.
They could threaten Guantanamo and Florida for a short while, but the response from US to those threats could be awesome..and this time, there´s no SU to back them... In reality they are hoping US let them be, and controling their internal oposition.
.pt

 

[Ths]

The Cuban problem is how to get away from communism - the present rule has nothing to do with ideal - it is a power clique fighting to preserve their priviliges - and priviliges that are becoming steadily less attractive: When Castro dies: We'll probably see some wealthy emigre -cubans buying the "leadership" out with a nice villa on the Cayman Islands - and a pension.

To Cuba proper, the problem is that the USA on way or the other has to be persuaded to take over: There is scant money in cigars and sugar, so back to the old gambling and prostitution: Cuba has never been able to run itself economically. SO: Don't annoy the Yanks.
The major problem will be to persuade investors that there is a profit in investing in cuban infrastructure et alia.

 

[eckherl]

The Cuban problem is how to get away from communism - the present rule has nothing to do with ideal - it is a power clique fighting to preserve their priviliges - and priviliges that are becoming steadily less attractive: When Castro dies: We'll probably see some wealthy emigre -cubans buying the "leadership" out with a nice villa on the Cayman Islands - and a pension.

To Cuba proper, the problem is that the USA on way or the other has to be persuaded to take over: There is scant money in cigars and sugar, so back to the old gambling and prostitution: Cuba has never been able to run itself economically. SO: Don't annoy the Yanks.
The major problem will be to persuade investors that there is a profit in investing in cuban infrastructure et alia.

I think that they would do pretty good in the tourism business, and yes with gambling resorts people from all over the world will flock to their shores.

 

[.pt]

They sure have prosperous clientele on their doorstep, with good chance of spending $$$.
If they do it properly, why not? no need to return to 1950´s and Baptista. No need for prostitution as the only way of surviving. It will be there, but at manageable levels, hopefully. And they are very educated and cultured, one of the few pluses of their system. I know, i´ve been there as a Tourist.
.pt

 

[contedicavour]

Folks, there is one problem with the rosy scenarios you are describing... whoever replaces Castro (besides his brother who isn't likely to live much longer than Castro himself) is likely to be close to Chavez' Venezuela and its allies such as Bolivia and Argentina...
Until oil remains expensive, Venezuela is replacing the old USSR as regime enhancer for Cuba. There's enough to keep alive a significant level of hostility towards the US.
Beyond oil, Cuba thrives on tourism from countries other than the US, and from investment in mining, food&beverage, energy, etc from non US companies.
I hope I'm just a pessimist, but there's no guarantee that getting rid of Castro will ensure closer relations with the US

cheers

 

[Izzy1]

Agreed. Whoever takes control after Castro, near on 50 years of anti-US propoganda isn't going to just wear-off overnight. And as Contedicavour, as long as a oil-flush Chavez is around, Cuba will remain in the 'leftist' camp, along with its newest potential member - Nicaragua.

 

[.pt]

"leftist!" = Anti-American, eh?:
Anyway, with that Nicaragua thing, one almost feels its the 1980´s all over again.
.pt

 

[contedicavour]

"leftist!" = Anti-American, eh?:
Anyway, with that Nicaragua thing, one almost feels its the 1980´s all over again.
.pt

Well in Latin America there's leftist and leftist... there's the civilized version that I'd call social democrat (Brazil, Chile for example) and there's the outdated "che guevara" anti-yankee version (Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, and to some extent even Argentina).

Militarily the social democrat countries are strongest, luckily enough, but oil can buy a lot of things quickly

cheers

 

[JBodnar39]

Cuba's active air assests are currently as follows:

2 MiG-29A/1 UB
23 MiG-23MF/ML/UB
1 Mi-14
3 Ka-32
4 Mi-24
8 Mi-17
4 An-24

The rest of the cold war stuff is in storage

 

[.pt]

Thats a very bare cupboard indeed...
Only 2 mig 29? who gets to fly in it? The AF chief of staff?
No threat there...
Conte, by oil you mean Chavez..ok but one thing is buying, another is operating it properly, and suport its operations..somehow i think they lack the capability there.
Chavez rants more than he bites.. The man even has his own tv show where he elevates the Latin american sport of American(gringo)bashing to a fine art
Will take some time for that threat to materialise..and as you said i don´t think some of it´s neighbours will just watch if things turn sour.
.pt

 

[contedicavour]

Thats a very bare cupboard indeed...
Only 2 mig 29? who gets to fly in it? The AF chief of staff?
No threat there...
Conte, by oil you mean Chavez..ok but one thing is buying, another is operating it properly, and suport its operations..somehow i think they lack the capability there.
Chavez rants more than he bites.. The man even has his own tv show where he elevates the Latin american sport of American(gringo)bashing to a fine art
Will take some time for that threat to materialise..and as you said i don´t think some of it´s neighbours will just watch if things turn sour.
.pt

I agree with what you say, except on the timing part.
My belief is that it wouldn't take much to buy 2 dozen SU30MKI from Russia, lease mercenary pilots (as Ethiopia and Eritrea did for example in the late '90s) and constitute may be not a threat, but a pain in the ass for the US.
Of course, the US would still dominate, no problem, but they would end up spending a lot to reinforce defences in Florida...
Same thing if Cuba buys (with Chavez' money) S300 long range SAMs ... probably they would never be really shot at US planes (it would be suicidal), but every US plane flying south of Florida would still risk being illuminated, just for the fun of pissing off the US...

cheers

 

[Big-E]

Of course, the US would still dominate, no problem, but they would end up spending a lot to reinforce defences in Florida...


cheers

Whats wrong with the defenses we have now? I think the 93rd and 159th FSs at Homestead are MORE than enough to take care of that little problem. :nutkick

 

[.pt]

Probably yes Big E.

But if, as Conte said, they obtain some S 300 SAM , then they could piss off military and commercial flights, iluminating them, and there would be nothing you could do..except perhaps send some antiradiation missiles.
Anyway, i don´t think that will happen.

As for Chavez, conte, yes he could do that, but that would spell his end, because neither US, neither other countries would tolerate that kind of threat for long, i think.

.pt

 

[contedicavour]

Beyond S 300 SAMs, a few SU30MKI armed with R77 flying around southern Florida in international airspace would also be an issue.
Of course, your F15s and F16s can overwhelm them and shoot them down, but that would be an act of war, so unless there is direct provocation you would still have to tolerate them and have several of your own fighters constantly up in the air chasing SU30s around, just in case they were up to something.
Regarding Chavez, nobody will chase him from power if he pays for Russian deliveries of S300 and SU30MKI to Cuba. The only thing that will eventually cause his downfall is a sharp fall in oil prices. He has ransacked PDVSA and Central Bank funds so there is no reserve in case the oil price crashed below 30-40 USD per barrel. Anyway, that won't be happening tomorrow isn't it

cheers

 

[Big-E]

Beyond S 300 SAMs, a few SU30MKI armed with R77 flying around southern Florida in international airspace would also be an issue.
Of course, your F15s and F16s can overwhelm them and shoot them down, but that would be an act of war, so unless there is direct provocation you would still have to tolerate them and have several of your own fighters constantly up in the air chasing SU30s around, just in case they were up to something.

I think the only thing we need is an AEGIS floating around the Keys. No one would dare penetrate our air space with that arsenal pointing at you with that radar system. The SPY radar can fry their electronics without even firing a shot. :nutkick

 

[contedicavour]

I think the only thing we need is an AEGIS floating around the Keys. No one would dare penetrate our air space with that arsenal pointing at you with that radar system. The SPY radar can fry their electronics without even firing a shot. :nutkick

But what if the SU30s did not penetrate your airspace, and remained in international airspace flying around ? That would be nerve-breaking since you couldn't just shoot them down... though you would have to track them 24H/24 just in case they did something provocative such as going on afterburner straight for the Keys until a few miles away from your airspace ?

cheers

 

[eckherl]

Beyond S 300 SAMs, a few SU30MKI armed with R77 flying around southern Florida in international airspace would also be an issue.
Of course, your F15s and F16s can overwhelm them and shoot them down, but that would be an act of war, so unless there is direct provocation you would still have to tolerate them and have several of your own fighters constantly up in the air chasing SU30s around, just in case they were up to something.
Regarding Chavez, nobody will chase him from power if he pays for Russian deliveries of S300 and SU30MKI to Cuba. The only thing that will eventually cause his downfall is a sharp fall in oil prices. He has ransacked PDVSA and Central Bank funds so there is no reserve in case the oil price crashed below 30-40 USD per barrel. Anyway, that won't be happening tomorrow isn't it

cheers

If we start having our military and commercial aircraft alluminated by Cuban missles and combat aircraft you can rest assured that this type of behavior will not last long.

 

[Ths]

As Conte said: There is leftist and there is leftist:

The socialdemocratic is totally different thing. They at least try getting to grips with the very deep structural and social problems of Latin America.

Oil money come and go, and if you are a Chavez type your life expectancy is liable to be short when the tide turns.

 

[Ibizan Hound]

Hi
I would like to know how much equipment the cuban military has and how capable they are. Are there any projects/purchases planned?
I know that cuban has about 2 dozen patrol boast armed with SSMs. They use maily 80's soviet equipment. But I would like to see what they have to offer at the warhames happeneing soon.

I was interested in your topic and tried to read the post that followed. After I discovered it was mostly pro-US anti Cuban garbage I just hit the quote button. Cuba is very very strong. They are the strongest of the Latin natins and spanish-speaking nations in the Americas. They are slightly stronger than Pakistan actually. They have about 462,000 troops over 400 aircraft and over 3,000 tanks.
here is a wargames video from the Summer of this year. You've provided nothing proving there will be any more wargames in Cuba.
http://battlesworld.com/2006/10/27/...ummer-2006-manoeuvres-cubavision-news-report/