Covid-19 pandemic & Fake News - How you can help

[kato]

Baden-Württemberg state here is entering a new lock-down level tomorrow since the number of Corona patients in ICU beds in the state is above 250.

A bit interesting is that this change only affects unvaccinated - and yes, intentionally, in order to put pressure on them:

• unvaccinated may only assemble in "one household plus five people" numbers in private
• for any indoor activity which requires 3G (Vaccination, Recovery or Testing) only PCR tests are accepted.
• for similar outdoor activities 3G (with standard antigen tests) becomes mandatory

There is a third level (at 390 in ICU beds - today 284) in which basically 3G+PCR is reduced to 2G (no tests accepted), 3G is reduced to 3G+PCR, "unregulated" becomes 3G and assembly of unvaccinated is reduced to "one household plus one person".

14. Singapore’s Covid-19 stats, as at 31 Oct 2021:

• Total SG Covid-19 deaths = 407
• Cumulative SG infected = 198,374.

Given the infection numbers those death numbers are surprisingly low. We have twice the population of SG in my state (11.07m) and about 3.2 times the infection numbers (639,118) - but 27 times as many deaths (11,019).

 

[OPSSG]

Part 4 of 4: Avoiding Vaccine Misinformation

15. Singapore’s Covid-19 stats, as at 3 Nov 2021:

• Total SG Covid-19 deaths = 442
• New deaths = 12
• Cumulative SG infected = 207,975
• New SG Covid-19 count = 3,635
• Vaxxed (2 doses): 84% of population
• Received booster shots: 16% of population

16. With 84% of population vaxxed (& 16% of population, with a booster), it’s the 100 unvaxxed out of more than 3,000 people who get infected every day (at the ratio of unvaxxed vs vaxxed infection rate at 1:30), that is taking up ICU capacity. The strain on intensive care beds increases, as the percentage of ICU beds in the country being rose 3 Nov 2021, to 72.7%.

• Require oxygen in the general ward: 293
• Unstable and under close monitoring in the ICU: 72
• Critically ill and intubated in the ICU: 69
• Received booster shots: 16% of population

Given the infection numbers those death numbers are surprisingly low. We have twice the population of SG in my state (11.07m) and about 3.2 times the infection numbers (639,118) - but 27 times as many deaths (11,019).

17. Death rates are low and the numbers to show this. But there might be differences is the way Covid-19 deaths is counted. Excess deaths might be a better measure but I don’t have that data on hand. It’s clear that vaccination does not stop the spread of Covid-19 but it does confer benefits — including the fact that Viral load drops quicker (as little as 9 days).

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1453753926994391040

18. There are groups, like Rational Ground, that are actually an extreme Covid denialist group that pushes dangerous misinformation about vaccines and masks. They even say masks on pregnant women cause stillbirths and harass scientists. James Surowiecki and others are doing a good job at debunking less extreme part of this denial spectrum (eg. @ianmSC and @Bob90674185, who are anti-mask mandates), at multiple levels:

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One, Singapore tests so much more than any state in the US that it’s meaningless to compare case rates. Florida has recorded at least 3,657,645 confirmed Covid-19 cases and 60,197 deaths. In contrast, Singapore has recorded 210,978 Covid-19 cases and 459 deaths.​

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Two, Singapore and South Korea have good data that MASKING works — where in Singapore we had a cluster of 120 bus drivers that were infected. Masking protected thousands of passengers. Because of the observational nature of the data collection (from this bus driver infection cluster, with almost all vaccinated), our knowledge of infection control from masking is limited but, potentially, biased by token data, from passengers, infection transmission route is likely to be at meals. In large data sets like a whole city — the correlation data is pretty good. The contact tracing based on the 120 bus driver infection cluster, showed that they were not transmitting to thousands of passengers (who also had contact tracing tokens).​

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Three, let us compare the no. of cases (deaths) from Covid-19 and capacity to respond (in ICU beds per 100k of pop & in nurses per 1k of pop) in 3 countries from the same data source for each metric measured, all extracted on 5 Nov 2021.​

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(a) SG’s 1st case — 23 Jan 2020 (pop. 5.686 million)​

• No. of cases in SG = 210,978 (459 deaths)
• No. of ICU beds = 11.4/100,000
• No. of Nurses = 7.5/1,000

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(b) NZ’s 1st case — 26 Feb 2020 (pop. 5.084 million)​

• No. of cases in NZ = 7,138 (29 deaths)
• No. of ICU beds = 5.1/100,000
• No. of Nurses = 10.29/1,000

​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1458547086878646274

(c) Greece’s 1st case — 26 Feb 2020 (pop. 10.72 million)​

• No. of cases in Greece = 767,376 (16,151 deaths)
• No. of ICU beds = 6/100,000
• No. of Nurses = 3.31/1,000

19. There is a very tiny 1 in 200,000 chance that a vaxxed person in Singapore ends up in the ICU; but 9 in 200,000 chance that an unvaxxed person ends up in the ICU. The above number is derived on a rolling 7-day period, per 100,000 of the general population, the number is:

(a) 0.5 of the vaxxed are in the ICU; &​

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(b) 4.5 of the unvaxxed are in the ICU.​

20. When it comes to Covid-19 deaths in Singapore, the significant majority seems to have occurred in over 70 years, elderly group, compared to other age groups. The overall number of deaths (at 442 from start of pandemic to 3 Nov 2021) is low possibly due to the continued public-health measures.

21. Despite the public heath measures, there is a 3.6 in 200,000 chance that a vaxxed senior (over 60) in Singapore ends up in the ICU; but 72 in 200,000 chance that an unvaxxed senior ends up in the ICU. The risk profile changes for seniors 60 & above, per 100,000 (of the age gp), and the no. is:

(a) 1.8 of the vaxxed seniors are in the ICU; &​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1456500864428883968

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(b) 36.0 of the unvaxxed seniors are in the ICU.​

22. Currently, Singapore’s MOH is monitoring 9 active clusters, which have already been ring-fenced through tracing, testing, and isolation. When the health system is not overwhelmed (98.5% to 98.7% mild symptoms), Singapore hospitals can give better care. From the start, they have been using awake prone positioning combined with high-flow nasal cannula, to reduce mortality rates — with just 442 deaths among the more than 207,975 people who have been infected with Covid-19. The weekly infection growth rate is at 0.96, down from 1.12. The 12 New deaths are between the ages of 59 and 99. All of them had various underlying medical conditions.

 

[kato]

The strain on intensive care beds increases, as the percentage of ICU beds in the country being rose 3 Nov 2021, to 72.7% .

I always find that a very relative number.

Here we're currently at 87.24% of ICU beds being used. However only 13% of the used beds are used by Covid patients (half of these ventilated) - i.e. we could double the current number of 296 Covid ICU patients to about 587 before we run out.

This number of "about 600" in beds kept ready is derived from experience with the three peaks we've had so far in the three waves - 559 on Apr 6th '20, 642 on Dec 29th '20 and 627 on May 3rd '21.

If we hit such a peak we simply tap the surge capacity - that's a reserve of ICU beds that can be brought online within 7 days, and which triples the affordable number of Covid ICU patients from about 600 to about 1900. The exact number varies, the critical factor in this isn't beds but personnel to run these (getting a bit sparse with intensive-care nurses quitting their jobs, switching to other teams or getting infected themselves). About a year ago before second wave we still were at around 2300 full surged capacity.

 

[OPSSG]

Part 1 of 4: Nov 2021 Updates from SG to debunk American Social Media Misinformation

1. Singapore is slowly opening up and trying to get to the point where the combination of high vaccination rates, & booster jabs (even allowing for mild infections), where Covid-19 will no longer be the threat it once was to the health system & our elderly death rate. The strain on intensive care beds moderates, as % of ICU beds in the country as at 4 Nov 2021, dips by over 2% to 70.2%.

• 286 Require oxygen in the general ward
• 66 Unstable & under close monitoring in the ICU
• 72 Critically ill & intubated in the ICU

2. Given the short time period allowed for the clinical trails, I have some limited sympathy for vaccine hesitation — as long as the FDA approval is ONLY under an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). The 1st EUA for the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine was approved on 11 Dec 2020 (for individuals 16 years of age and older). However, I note that the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine has received full FDA approval on 23 Aug 2021, which removes this ‘wait and see excuse’.

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(a) On 20 Oct 2021, the FDA authorized the use of a heterologous (or “mix and match”) booster dose in eligible populations with currently available (i.e., FDA-authorized or approved) COVID-19 vaccines. Therefore, Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine recipients falling into one of the authorized categories for boosters may receive the Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine (half dose), Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine or Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine and should be given at least 6 months after completing the primary vaccination.​

​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1455708642297188354

(b) On 29 Oct 2021, the FDA expands emergency use authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine to include children 5 through 11 years of age. If it were me, I would not be rushing to vaccine a child as young as 5, until more data on its adverse events is released — but that risk has to be balanced against the risk of these kids getting long Covid or even dying. In America, it is much more urgent than Singapore, given that Covid-19 has killed 680 children, hospitalized more than 50,000* so far. It is also in top 10 causes of death in children in US. Keep in mind that vaccines are used to prevent deaths and severe disease. No child should develop severe disease or die if it can be prevented.​

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*Footnote: Estimated from @AmerAcadPeds data here, which are from only 24 states, and don’t include many states with largest numbers of COVID-19. Estimate of 24,600 in those states, number for all 50 states likely much >50,000.​

​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1453864640706920451

3. As I explained in elsewhere, there is case law in America that say that vaccine mandates are lawful — but it is unclear to me if Team Biden can have the vaccine mandated at EUA stage or only with full FDA approval. Certainly, the Pentagon has decided to mandate vaccination for service members after full FDA approval. In support of this line of reasoning, there are those in America like Paul Krugman, who have said:

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“Vaccination, then, should be considered a public duty, not a personal choice."​

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"And the harm done to others by rejecting vaccines goes beyond an increased risk of disease. The unvaccinated are far more likely than the vaccinated to require hospitalization, which means that they place stress on the health care system;" he added.​

4. In part due to mask mandates & contact tracing, SG’s weekly infection growth rate is at 0.93, down from 0.96. The 17 New deaths are between the ages of 55 and 93. All of them had various underlying medical conditions. Singapore’s Covid-19 stats, as at 4 Nov 2021:

• Total SG Covid-19 deaths = 459
• New deaths = 17
• Cumulative SG infected = 210,978
• New SG Covid-19 count = 3,003
• Vaxxed (2 doses): 85% of population
• Received booster shots: 17% of population

 

[seaspear]

Is there any data available on the effectiveness of booster shots in hospital admissions?
this article from Israel could not provide such data

Booster Shots Drastically Reduce Delta Variant Hospitalizations And Deaths In Israel

Booster Shots Drastically Reduce Delta Variant Hospitalizations And Deaths In Israel

www.iflscience.com

 

[swerve]

Three, let us compare the no. of cases (deaths) from Covid-19 and capacity to respond (in ICU beds per 100k of pop & in nurses per 1k of pop) in 3 countries from the same data source for each metric measured, all extracted on 5 Nov 2021.

​

(a) SG’s 1st case — 23 Jan 2020 (pop. 5.686 million)​

• No. of cases in SG = 210,978 (459 deaths)
• No. of ICU beds = 11.4/100,000
• No. of Nurses = 7.5/1,000

​

(b) NZ’s 1st case — 26 Feb 2020 (pop. 5.084 million)​

• No. of cases in NZ = 7,138 (29 deaths)
• No. of ICU beds = 5.1/100,000
• No. of Nurses = 10.29/1,000

​

(c) Greece’s 1st case — 26 Feb 2020 (pop. 10.72 million)​

• No. of cases in Greece = 767,376 (16,151 deaths)
• No. of ICU beds = 6/100,000
• No. of Nurses = 3.31/1,000

Greece is under-nursed & perhaps over-doctored.
Doctors per 1000

• Singapore 2.3
• New Zealand 3.6
• Greece 5.5

Cuba & Lithuania have more than Greece, but I think that's it, apart from tiny irrelevancies like Monaco.

 

[OPSSG]

Part 2 of 4: Nov 2021 Updates from SG to debunk American Social Media Misinformation

5. Starting from Oct 2021 and continuing in Nov 2021, travellers from 13 countries (including Australia, Germany, South Korea, the US & the UK), may apply online for quarantine-free entry into Singapore under the VTL program. The rules a 1st negative result from a Covid-19 PCR test taken within 48 hours before departure to Singapore, and a 2nd on-arrival.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1455396051737710592

6. Singapore's Senior Minister of State for Health, Dr Janil Puthucheary, told Parliament: “"We have got to this point in our fight against COVID-19 without excess mortality. We have managed to continue to provide excellent healthcare for all COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients. … And we should place a high value on maintaining this standard." Given the contact tracing efforts, the strain on intensive care beds moderates, as % of ICU beds in the country as at 5 Nov 2021, dips by over 2% to 68.6%.

• 282 Require oxygen in the general ward
• 70 Unstable & under close monitoring in the ICU
• 70 Critically ill & intubated in the ICU

7. SG’s weekly infection growth rate is at 0.81 down from 0.93 yesterday (& from 0.96 the day before). Singapore’s Covid-19 stats, as at 5 Nov 2021:

• Total SG Covid-19 deaths = 468
• New deaths = 9
• Cumulative SG infected = 212,745
• New SG Covid-19 count = 1,767
• Vaxxed (2 doses): 85% of population
• Received booster shots: 17% of population

Greece is under-nursed & perhaps over-doctored.
Doctors per 1000

• Singapore 2.3
• New Zealand 3.6
• Greece 5.5

8. Agreed. That is useful additional information. More doctors on a per capita basis alone do not lead to better outcomes in Greece, when compared to Singapore and our Covid-19 death rates.

9. Merck claimed that molnupiravir has been effective across all Covid viral variants, including the highly transmissible Delta variant. It inhibits replication of Sars-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes Covid-19, by a mechanism known as “lethal mutagenesis”. The pill works by introducing errors into the genetic code of the virus that causes Covid. It is not capable of inducing genetic changes in human cells. American pharmaceutical company MSD announced that it had a supply and purchase agreement with the Singapore government for molnupiravir. Patients on the pill will take it twice a day for five days. MSD also said in their earlier press release that they plan to submit an application for EUA to the FDA.

10. Despite 215,780 infected, the total death number is only 480. The high vaccination rate is only part of the reason for this. On 28 Oct 2021, Straits Times reported that unvaccinated seniors - who make up about 1.5% of the total population - accounted for close to 70% of Covid-19 deaths and intensive care unit cases.

 

[OPSSG]

Part 3 of 4: Nov 2021 Updates from SG to debunk American Social Media Misinformation

11. As Carl Sagan once said:

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“The dangers of not thinking clearly are much greater now than ever before. It's not that there's something new in our way of thinking - it's that credulous and confused thinking can be much more lethal in ways it was never before.”​

This quote is applicable to the misinformation spewed by Anti-vaxxers and anti-mask mandate advocates.

12. In contrast, effective communications to keep the trust enable the country to collectively move forward to the endemic stage (on a path that no other country has tried on our scale). How did Singapore, as a country, keep the Covid-19 death rate so much lower when compared to any country in the G7?

(i) Using defence scientists to build custom solutions for early intervention.​

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(ii) Massive testing effort & high tech systems to provide solutions (eg. trace together tokens).​

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(iii) 99.9% masking compliance (making cases milder).​

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(iv) Trust.​

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(v) Effective comms to keep the trust.​

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(vi) Collaborative teamwork by Govt, industry, religious leaders & civic gps.​

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(vii) At a systems level, SG was prepared. Chance prefers the prepared mind.​

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(viii) Equal treatment for all. Understanding the virus is the enemy, not each other.​

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(ix) SG was hit by SARS & a vast majority knows the drill for a pandemic.​

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(x) We have a science driven policy.​

13. SG’s weekly infection growth rate is at 0.88. Singapore’s Covid-19 stats, as at 10 Nov 2021:

• Total SG Covid-19 deaths = 540
• New deaths = 17
• Cumulative SG infected = 227,681
• New SG Covid-19 count = 3,481
• Vaxxed (2 doses): 85% of population
• Partially Vaxxed (1 dose): 86% of population
• Received booster shots: 19% of population

14. Singapore has about 64,000 seniors 60 years and older who are not vaccinated. The aim is to vaccinate 20,000 more of our unvaxxed seniors, to relax the pressure on the ICUs, and bring that down to the 50 mark for intubated ICU. At about 200 new vaccinations per day of unvaxxed seniors, it will take Singapore 2 months to get there.

15. If Singapore can double the number of daily new vaccinations for our unvaxxed seniors, we can get there in 1 month, well before Christmas. For seniors who are compos mentis, mentally alert, their children will ask them if they would like to be protected against dying from Covid-19.

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(a) From 8 Dec 2021, all Covid-19 patients who are unvaccinated "by choice" will have to pay their own medical bills if they are admitted to hospitals or COVID-19 treatment facilities.​

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(b) This 8 Dec 2021 policy tool will get the adult children of these unvaxxed seniors in Singapore, to talk to their parents. This will help persuade 20,000 to 25,000 of the unvaxxed folks to get vaccinated, by then.​

 

[ngatimozart]

There's been a divide created here between the antivaxxers and everyone else. The government has mandated that the likes of medical personnel, firies, teachers, some retail staff etc., be fully vaxxed or else they find alternative employment. They are also bringing in a vax passport which you will need to enter some venues buildings etc. So it's basically becoming a no vax, no job, no fun situation and I don't have a problem with that.

Well the antivaxxers are firing up like a Saturn 5 rocket. They are going right off about having their personal rights infringed and its getting nasty with people being given the bash over not supporting the antivaxxers. Property has been vandalised and threats have been made. Extremists have infiltrated the antivaxxers and really politicised it. They had a protest outside of Parliament on Tuesday and there were Trump flags and Nazi placards next to Māori indigenous banners and flags. They two are diametrically opposite in political views with the far right appropriating Māori symbols and bastardising the culture to further their own ends, which are to create discord within society and divide it.

 

[kato]

Bavaria formally reinstated its State of Emergency today, since daily cases in the state went above 10,000 and there are now counties with incidence numbers above 1,000.

The State of Emergency allows the state government to enact measures to combat a crisis that may include restriction of e.g. movement or property, and also organizationally subordinates all members of civil protection units (close to half a million people, most of them voluntary firefighters or Red Cross members) to the state government on call when and where required for coordination of joint efforts.

No effective measures are planned yet that weren't enacted before, the main initial point of it is to bring the hospitals under central control to coordinate redistribution of patients from the south to the north of the state in order to at least maintain 10% free ICU beds for general emergencies everywhere.

The last State of Emergency in Bavaria for Covid was installed for Second Wave in December 2020 and lasted 7 months, so this might be in effect for a while.

 

[kato]

Baden-Württemberg has ceased reporting separate incidence rates for vaccinated and unvaccinated as of today.

The official reason for this is that previous efforts at contact tracing have completely ceased to the extent that public health agencies will no longer contact and question individual cases in order to "concentrate on larger outbreaks where vulnerable population is concerned". Therefore they also no longer can tick out the vaccination status box for each individual case.

The underlaying reason for this is that in general now - since we are not under a lockdown - public health agencies can not draw on personnel from other public agencies, as those are now working regularly as if there was no pandemic. They technically have some money to hire additional staff, but no one wants to work under those work conditions for limited pay and on a fixed short-term duration contract. In some considerably understaffed places - currently mostly in Bavaria - the military is supplanting with personnel.

The last reported incidence rate among unvaccinated in the state was 893 cases per 100,000 residents in a rolling 7-day period as of yesterday. It had doubled from one week earlier, and wasn't really showing any signs of stopping.

 

[kato]

No effective measures are planned yet that weren't enacted before, the main initial point of it is to bring the hospitals under central control to coordinate redistribution of patients from the south to the north of the state in order to at least maintain 10% free ICU beds for general emergencies everywhere.

Hospital coordinators set up as part of the civil defense command staff today ordered "covid treatment" hospitals in five out of seven provinces in Bavaria to postpone any non-time-critical hospitalizations or surgery in order to create capacity for critical general cases. About 300 hospitals in Bavaria are subject to this order, notably regardless of their ownership (plenty of commercial hospitals in that list). The order is active for eight weeks unless countermanded.

 

[OPSSG]

Part 4 of 4: Nov 2021 Updates from SG to debunk American Social Media Misinformation

16. Modern American political censorship against those advocating positions like that of Paul Krugman, works by Republican supporters (of Ron DeSantis and others like him), flooding the zone with shit, rather than trying to block content about how vaccination and masks help limit spread in a pandemic. What some of these anti-vaxx Republicans are saying on social media about Singapore’s data, is not true, when placed in its proper context.

17. I see these idiots trying to make the argument that Ron DeSantis is correct about resisting mask mandates, when masking is an important tool in the suite of Public Heath measures used by the Singapore Government to mitigate against the spread of Covid-19.

• SG’s Prime Minister has said, the country has an endgame plan, to open up more of the economy (based on certain conditions).
• A high vaccination rate is the path to the endemic stage (end game). There are more ways forward than just the blunt tool of shutdowns.
• SG is not just more competent at pandemic management, it is far better prepared (than an American posting on social media can imagine).
• SG society is much more cohesive (as shown via Vaxx rate, social distancing & masking) & the anti-vaxx movement has no traction.
• SG’s total death rate is 691. A number that any American large city or London blew past in 2020, and the total number of deaths in Singapore (in Nov 2021), is lower than the daily death count of NY or London.
• SG’s Covid-19 hospitalised rate is at between 6.5% to 7.5% of infected.
• Masking & vaccination is much cheaper than ICU stays (for individuals & country). The vast majority agree that we want to take steps forward to avoid shutdowns unless absolutely necessary.
• SG’s outcomes for the sick due to Covid-19 are much better than global average.

18. The economy has to move beyond lockdowns and this approach ensures that there is concern for seniors — to give them, their children time to talk and get vaxxed. This will reduce Covid-19 deaths. There are folks already on palliative care, which each family will have to decide. With vaccination, they can spend their remaining days with family without causing the guilt of dying earlier from a covid infection. They can also visit their favourite places.

19. Given the contact tracing efforts, the strain on intensive care beds moderates, as % of ICU beds in the country as at 17 Nov 2021, drops to 62.6%.

• 242 Require oxygen in the general ward
• 48 Unstable & under close monitoring in the ICU
• 64 Intubated in the ICU

20. Masking kept SG’s weekly infection growth rate at 0.89. Singapore’s Covid-19 stats, as at 17 Nov 2021:

• Total SG Covid-19 deaths = 691
• New deaths = 7
• Cumulative SG infected = 244,815
• New SG Covid-19 count = 3,474
• Partly vaxxed: 86% of pop
• Vaxxed: 85% of pop
• Booster: 21% of pop

 

[kato]

I think they've given up a bit - no new color for 2000 incidence, despite there now being a district that'd qualify for it.

The district above 2000 (at 2,006 cases/100,000 people in last 7 days) is Erzgebirgkreis in Saxony on the Czech border (below the Chemnitz mark in the map).
The current incidence rate for Saxony state is 1193. Since the beginning of the pandemic 11.4% of the population of Saxony has gotten infected at some point. 2.33% of these cases were fatal.



Saxony has the lowest vaccination rate in Germany - and one of the lowest in Europe - at 42.7% of the population fully vaccinated.

 

[OPSSG]

Post 1 of 3: News on the Omicron variant

1. Increasingly, Delta will spread amongst the unvaxxed. I believe that unvaxxed Americans (now 41% of US population) will continue to become infected with Delta in the foreseeable future; with a daily infection rate of 216k of new American Covid-19 cases, per day.

2. Likewise in Singapore Delta is the dominant strain causing between 1,200+ to 3,500+ infections per day. Singapore reported 1,239 new Covid-19 cases in Singapore on 30 Nov 2021. Total number of Singapore COVID-19 cases reported thus far: 264,725

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1465575202482311172

3. Given that I suspect Omicron may have immune escape properties and I think even an highly vaxxed population, like Australia / Japan / UK / Singapore, in particular, can remain vulnerable to the spread of Omicron. Preliminary report of Omicron says Omicron is 1.3x more transmissible than Delta, and the unvaxxed have 2.4x greater risk of a severe outcome from the infection. Those with BOOSTERS: 90% lower risk of severe outcome from the infection.

4. Both Japan and Israel have closed their borders to international travel. Vaccinated international arrivals will still have to self-isolate for 72 hours after arriving in Australia, but Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison says the Omicron variant will not spook the nation into bringing back lockdowns

5. I think Americans / Australians /Japanese who were Covid-19 infected in 2020/2021 and recovered, who have chosen not to get vaccinated after recovery will be highly susceptible to an Omicron reinfection. Also some who are only partially vaccinated, one dose, or 2 doses with waning immunity will be affected.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1465542126037463043

6. Growth rate of cases in South Africa is much higher (faster surge) than in Portugal, Spain and Sweden. Doubling times—calculated by @GosiaGasperoPhD:

• South Africa: 3-4 days
• Spain & Portugal: 12-14 days

 

[John Fedup]

Travel restrictions for a couple of weeks isn’t a bad thing. The hard decision will be what to do if Omicron is much more contagious than Delta or worse, vaccine effectiveness is dramatically reduced.

 

[Steinmetz]

COVID vaccine from Md.-based Novavax 1 month from FDA application

Gaithersburg, Maryland-based Novavax could file for Food and Drug Administration approval for its COVID-19 vaccine within weeks, after completing one of the final steps in the process.

The Novavax vaccine differs from existing messenger RNA vaccines currently in use, and can be shipped and stored at much higher refrigeration temperatures, which could increase access in hard-to-reach areas.

Novavax seems to be finally ready to file for FDA approval. Since it's a traditional(Non MRNA) vaccine, hopefully it'll reduce Vaccine Hesitancy here in the states, if that's even possible at this point.

New Year New Vaccine? Will Novavax be too late or right in time? Is Novavax any good for Omicron?

Good overview for the layman by Dr. Hong, Doctor of Pharmacy.

 

[swerve]

The Oxford/AstraZeneca (the most used vaccine in the world to date, just ahead of BioNTech/Pfizer) & Sputnik vaccines are also not mRNA, though not traditional. They have SARS-Cov2 bits attached to a harmless (or nearly so) carrier virus.

And to be accurate, the Novavax one isn't really traditional. It isn't a killed or attenuated live virus, which IIRC all vaccines were when I was young. It's described as "a recombinant nanoparticle vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that contains the full-length spike glycoprotein of the prototype strain plus Matrix-M adjuvant" in one article I've seen. It's sort of part way between those old ones & mRNA vaccines.

 

[kato]

And to be accurate, the Novavax one isn't really traditional. It isn't a killed or attenuated live virus, which IIRC all vaccines were when I was young.

Novavax is basically a traditional "subunit vaccine" - such vaccines work by containing a partial protein component of a virus or another component (e.g. polysaccharide elements of the cell walls of a bacterium) that specifically triggers immune responses without including any of the components that result in an infection. They were developed around 1980. By design they do not need an active carrier or something like that as the injected component itself is chosen for being the response trigger; however the list of diseases vaccinated against is therefore also somewhat limited.

For pertussis and haemophilus influenzae (both of which most children in the west are vaccinated against) such subunit vaccines replaced previously used inactivated-virus vaccines due to safety/liability concerns in the early to mid 90s for the most part.

 

[swerve]

I find it hard to think of vaccines made with a new technique developed when I was an adult as traditional. To me, traditional refers to the 200 years of vaccines before that.

Of course, there's been far more progress in vaccine technology in the last 40 years or so than in the previous centuries.