pasukangeraktjepat
New Member
Why china don't posses some carrier witch can launch an STOVL aircraft like Yak series or Harrier series ?,i think it's quite affordable and quite threaten too.
chinese nuclear aircraft carrier?
- Thread starter tommy_sa21
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From what I gathered, PLAN wants to go from medium aircrat carrier (60KT+), so Yak and Harrier may not be very appealing compared to Su33.
We may see something earlier. I hope some pics will show up in the next few days. Varyag has been towed away today.
Mod edit: Path: Post combined
We may see something earlier. I hope some pics will show up in the next few days. Varyag has been towed away today.
Mod edit: Path: Post combined
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kashifshahzad
Banned Member
Because no one sells any aircraft carrier to China and for development of aircraft carrier of its own its need to spend money and time so wait for a while then China may have the aircraft carriers.
IIRC the condition of sale stipulated that they were not to be used for any military capacity - so it's more of an issue as to whether they intend to abide by that caveat.kashifshahzad said:
The citadel appeared to have been modified some time ago. But, those mods appear to have been done for equipment testing rather than a fitout.
China is not allowed by sale caveat to rebuild any of the russian carriers into warships. that is why some have been converted into amusement parks.
gf
Yeah, I am very interested in what pennant number would be given to Varyag if it really ends up in PLAN's hand, also what will PLAN call it? I guess no matter what they call it, it will somehow violate the original agreement.
But, we all know that china is not regarded as a market economy by most countries, so I guess she does not need to care about a commercial contract signed by a no name company which already disappeared several years ago. Just kidding.
But, we all know that china is not regarded as a market economy by most countries, so I guess she does not need to care about a commercial contract signed by a no name company which already disappeared several years ago. Just kidding.
the broker was a government business enterprise, so the export conditions were set by the Russian Govt. - not exactly a "no-name" company"wp2000 said:
No matter what, China will be asked for an explaination, that's for sure. But china may already paid Russia enough to keep their mouth shut. Anyway, if china really decides to go with Varyag (which I believe is the case), the contract with Russia is the last thing they want to worry about.
Another interesting thing I am waiting to see is what aircraft will be used by PLAN on Varyag or future A/C. Rumor says we will see an answer in the next 12 months.
Another interesting thing I am waiting to see is what aircraft will be used by PLAN on Varyag or future A/C. Rumor says we will see an answer in the next 12 months.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
I don't think this is real news. As I've said before, China isn't interested in carriers right now. First it doesn't have enough modern escorts to protect them. Second I have yet to see any evidence that the pro-carrier lobby in the central military commission has gained any ground. The CCP's current priorities are:
1. More advanced fighters
2. Better air-refuelling capacity
3. Better frigates & destroyers
4. Higher tech army
Carriers aren't even on the list in my opinion.
1. More advanced fighters
2. Better air-refuelling capacity
3. Better frigates & destroyers
4. Higher tech army
Carriers aren't even on the list in my opinion.
Well, if you talking about refiting Varyag for training, I agree it's still open for debate because it's not happened yet.
But Varyag, after being sitting there for years, now it's being towed away and put into a dock. That's not a rumor.
Another thing, if you read China's newspapers and magazines, you should notice that, aircraft carrier has never been such a hot topic before than now. Even 5-6 years ago, I remember when china bought some old russian A/Cs, only some entertainment type of news showed up.
Now, quite a few professional magazines are having series of articles talking about A/C, some regional CCP newspapers are praising their local companies for producing components for China's first A/C.
So after reading these articles and news, I really don't think china is not interested in aircraft carrier.
Speaking about lack of escort ships, let me quote what one chinese magazine said: What's the point of building Aegis type of long range AAW destroyers if we are not going to build air craft carriers?
I think if china only starts to build A/C after enough modern escort ships are built, by the time the A/C is combat ready, some of the escort ships will have to be retired.
Also, what I heard is that among the die hard supporters of A/C in PLAN, some are submariners. They said, without air cover, they can go too far away.
As of your priority list for CCP, I have no problem with that. But to be honnest, I have my own version as well. And I am quite sure CCP's version is different from yours and mine.
Anyway, my opinion is that something is unfolding to us, although whether there will be an A/C or not, we can still debate and see what happens
cheers
But Varyag, after being sitting there for years, now it's being towed away and put into a dock. That's not a rumor.
Another thing, if you read China's newspapers and magazines, you should notice that, aircraft carrier has never been such a hot topic before than now. Even 5-6 years ago, I remember when china bought some old russian A/Cs, only some entertainment type of news showed up.
Now, quite a few professional magazines are having series of articles talking about A/C, some regional CCP newspapers are praising their local companies for producing components for China's first A/C.
So after reading these articles and news, I really don't think china is not interested in aircraft carrier.
Speaking about lack of escort ships, let me quote what one chinese magazine said: What's the point of building Aegis type of long range AAW destroyers if we are not going to build air craft carriers?
I think if china only starts to build A/C after enough modern escort ships are built, by the time the A/C is combat ready, some of the escort ships will have to be retired.
Also, what I heard is that among the die hard supporters of A/C in PLAN, some are submariners. They said, without air cover, they can go too far away.
As of your priority list for CCP, I have no problem with that. But to be honnest, I have my own version as well. And I am quite sure CCP's version is different from yours and mine.
Anyway, my opinion is that something is unfolding to us, although whether there will be an A/C or not, we can still debate and see what happens
cheers
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I'm not saying that it can't happen, I'm alerting you to the contract of sale conditions. failure to comply is a russian issue - not mine.wp2000 said:
as for carriers for the PLAN, the reason why the aircraft carrier lost impetus with the PLAN was when they changed heads of the Navy - he is an ex submariner. Since then the focus has been on subs.
The PLAN still has a static carrier deck built on dry land that approximates the size of the old HMAS Melbourne (their first scrap purchase). My understanding is that pilots are still being put through traps and running launches from that location. ie they are training for carrier work.
be that as it may, it will take at least 3 years to refurb one of the russian carriers, certify for it for use, and then at least another 6 months of "work up" to get it sea ready. at that stage it will take at least a year for it to work into a fleet ready stage where support vessels would be ready to work at a blue water level.
another words - from the day of decision to refit, re-engine (as the engines are knackered), comms refit etc... it will be at least 4-5 years before its blue water combat ready.
you can't accelerate these processes either, it has to be done in an orderly and progressive manner.
gf0012-aust,
Sorry, I think I did not make it clear that my previous post was a reply to Musashi, not to yours.
Anyway, you are right on the time lines. And that's why, if PLAN really wants to have an A/C in 10-15 years time, they'd better start now.
Also, I REALLY don't believe PLAN will put Varyag back into combat ready status.
That's just too much trouble to handle. That's why I am waiting to see whether they are going to build one from scratch while refitting Varyag.
Sorry, I think I did not make it clear that my previous post was a reply to Musashi, not to yours.
Anyway, you are right on the time lines. And that's why, if PLAN really wants to have an A/C in 10-15 years time, they'd better start now.
Also, I REALLY don't believe PLAN will put Varyag back into combat ready status.
That's just too much trouble to handle. That's why I am waiting to see whether they are going to build one from scratch while refitting Varyag.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
Hey wp,
In my opinion China is building AAW destroyers because it is moving towards obtaining a blue-water fleet. Whether or not it had carriers, it would need newer destroyers so that it could protect a taskforce. Most important of all, if there was to be an invasion of Taiwan, it would want to ensure that the escorts could protect the transports from attack by both jets and missiles. Taiwan has some very sophisticated equipment.
Perhaps China could be gearing up towards building carriers. But as I said, I haven't heard anything to suggest that the pro-carrier lobby is gaining ground in the CMC. Of course no one knows exactly what goes on in their discussions. But the last thing I had heard, the emphasis was switching onto how to win a war against Taiwan. That means more new jets, refuelling capacity, developing cruise/better short-ranged missiles, better escorts, more armoured transports, etc.
I honestly think China doesn't see the need for carriers at the moment. Why does it need them? Plenty of its competitors are linked by land, or would be in range of land-based planes with a more efficient refuelling system. Equally I don't think China would want to panic its neighbours by being the only nation in the Far East and South-east Asia to have carriers (the US doesn't count). If China started building them, Japan could easily follow suit, and countries like Indonesia and Malaysia might get some cheap, small carriers like the Invincible-class second-hand. China may well get them in the future, but as I said I think it has a lot of other priorities right now.
About the praise for those companies. Three words for you: good PR. It's like those models of a carrier they have in some museums/government buildings. There to make Chinese people feel more "proud" of the PRC. That's my take on it anyway.
In my opinion China is building AAW destroyers because it is moving towards obtaining a blue-water fleet. Whether or not it had carriers, it would need newer destroyers so that it could protect a taskforce. Most important of all, if there was to be an invasion of Taiwan, it would want to ensure that the escorts could protect the transports from attack by both jets and missiles. Taiwan has some very sophisticated equipment.
Perhaps China could be gearing up towards building carriers. But as I said, I haven't heard anything to suggest that the pro-carrier lobby is gaining ground in the CMC. Of course no one knows exactly what goes on in their discussions. But the last thing I had heard, the emphasis was switching onto how to win a war against Taiwan. That means more new jets, refuelling capacity, developing cruise/better short-ranged missiles, better escorts, more armoured transports, etc.
I honestly think China doesn't see the need for carriers at the moment. Why does it need them? Plenty of its competitors are linked by land, or would be in range of land-based planes with a more efficient refuelling system. Equally I don't think China would want to panic its neighbours by being the only nation in the Far East and South-east Asia to have carriers (the US doesn't count). If China started building them, Japan could easily follow suit, and countries like Indonesia and Malaysia might get some cheap, small carriers like the Invincible-class second-hand. China may well get them in the future, but as I said I think it has a lot of other priorities right now.
About the praise for those companies. Three words for you: good PR. It's like those models of a carrier they have in some museums/government buildings. There to make Chinese people feel more "proud" of the PRC. That's my take on it anyway.
Well, I had held the same view about A/C for PLAN for quite a while until about 1 year ago, because there are just too many bits and pieces of information coming from many sorts of sources.
So now I start to believe that,
1. PLAN has a different view on its short term and long term development plan, compared to us (military fans or observors). At the end of the day, they are the ones to make decisions, not us.
2. A/C is definitely not required in the Taiwan scenario. But Taiwan does not seem to be PLAN's NO1 long term goal. In other words, PLAN has been thinking about something bigger.
For example, Taiwan issue has been the pain in the neck for China in the last 15 years. But PLAN only started building more new landing ships in the last 3 years. And these new ships are all of old or existing design, if PLAN is serious about Taiwan, they should've and could've started to build them at least 10 years ago. But NO, before 2002, they only built 1 destroyer, several frigets AND quite a few RECON SHIPS, Support Ships and a weapon testing Ship. Even now, they are spending more money on new destoryers, frigets, submarines when many experts have been saying for decades that PLAN is unable to land more than 1 or 2 divisions of PLA on Taiwan (That's highest estimation from those experts actually).
Do you know in chinese history, there's a dynasty called Ming? It has an army of more than 1 milion men (600 years ago). And yet It's just unable to eliminate some small peasant rebelions. One general finally admitted to the emperor that the real reason was if the army finished those rebelions then they would be out of their jobs and got no money and resources from the government.
To me, PLAN, PLA and PLAAF are not as eager as we think they are to solve the Taiwan issue. It's a perfect excuse for them to do a long term and proper modernisation.
The recent developments regarding to Taiwan may changed their thinking a little bit, because I think Taiwan also realised that time is not on their side, they'd better act sooner rather than later. So China sensed that strong words are not enough to keep Taiwan in check and some landing ships and aircrafts may send a clearer signal to Taiwan.
Anyway, just my own observation. We should see photoes very soon.
regards
So now I start to believe that,
1. PLAN has a different view on its short term and long term development plan, compared to us (military fans or observors). At the end of the day, they are the ones to make decisions, not us.
2. A/C is definitely not required in the Taiwan scenario. But Taiwan does not seem to be PLAN's NO1 long term goal. In other words, PLAN has been thinking about something bigger.
For example, Taiwan issue has been the pain in the neck for China in the last 15 years. But PLAN only started building more new landing ships in the last 3 years. And these new ships are all of old or existing design, if PLAN is serious about Taiwan, they should've and could've started to build them at least 10 years ago. But NO, before 2002, they only built 1 destroyer, several frigets AND quite a few RECON SHIPS, Support Ships and a weapon testing Ship. Even now, they are spending more money on new destoryers, frigets, submarines when many experts have been saying for decades that PLAN is unable to land more than 1 or 2 divisions of PLA on Taiwan (That's highest estimation from those experts actually).
Do you know in chinese history, there's a dynasty called Ming? It has an army of more than 1 milion men (600 years ago). And yet It's just unable to eliminate some small peasant rebelions. One general finally admitted to the emperor that the real reason was if the army finished those rebelions then they would be out of their jobs and got no money and resources from the government.
To me, PLAN, PLA and PLAAF are not as eager as we think they are to solve the Taiwan issue. It's a perfect excuse for them to do a long term and proper modernisation.
The recent developments regarding to Taiwan may changed their thinking a little bit, because I think Taiwan also realised that time is not on their side, they'd better act sooner rather than later. So China sensed that strong words are not enough to keep Taiwan in check and some landing ships and aircrafts may send a clearer signal to Taiwan.
Anyway, just my own observation. We should see photoes very soon.
regards
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
wp, it doesn't matter if the Chinese armed services don't want to solve the Taiwan issue. Chen may well force the CCP's hand. If he declared independence or similarly did something to dispell the illusion that Taiwan is a part of China, the people would be enraged and turn on the CCP.
Ok, so what IS the PLAN's long-term strategy. Can you tell me a scenario where the PRC would need aircraft carriers, apart from some far-fetched engagement with the USN?
Also, when will we be seeing photos (I presume you mean of a carrier under construction)? Are you willing to state a "by X date"?
Ok, so what IS the PLAN's long-term strategy. Can you tell me a scenario where the PRC would need aircraft carriers, apart from some far-fetched engagement with the USN?
Also, when will we be seeing photos (I presume you mean of a carrier under construction)? Are you willing to state a "by X date"?
Yeah, you are right, the trigger of the war is not in PLA hand. It's in the hands of Chen. But WHAT is he waiting for?Musashi_kenshin said:
This is exactly what I mean, PLA knows that Chen does not have the guts and the power to declare independence even though he can see it's getting harder and harder to do so. PLA, in my opinion, is using this taiwan issue as a perfect excuse (both internally and externally) to take the time and resources to modernise itself in a proper way rather than being driven by short term goals only.
My answer is simple: I DON'T KNOW and I don't want to claim that my understanding is what PRC/PLA's policy. All I can see is that, in the official magazines and newspapers, the ultimate goals of PLAN is to protect China's growing maritime interest. How to understand that is up to everybody's guess. And usually, if Taiwan is mentioned in those articles, it's listed down the bottom part.
As of where aircraft carriers would be needed, you can ask US, Russia,India, France, UK or Thailand goverment.
What I mean is photoes of Varyag being refitted. USUALLY, in several weeks time, there should be photoes to show us that Varyag is gone. Starting from next week, it will be a one week long nation wide holiday in China, that's why I guess we can have some photoes very soon.
And I need to state it clear, I am just a military fan talking about my own understanding using my experience. I need to wait for somebody in china to take the photoes and show them on the internet. So, I can't give you a "by X date". It's just like, after you watched TV's weather report, you immediately call the TV station and demand them to give you a specific time on when the rain will start, otherwise they should stop reporting weather.
The unique fun regarding China related military issues is that everybody can guess/analyse/speculate. (It used be the case for USSR) Whereas for other countries's military issues, in most cases, what military fans can do is to spend money on magazines and to believe whatever they are told.
So, if somebody does post pictures about Varyag, I will say Thanks to them. If no pics, I won't blame anyone because they don't owe me any thing.
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Ok, first picture of Varyag is coming out now. But it has water mark of a chinese website, so I just provide this link to a thread on WMF forum. It's a chinese forum, but you can still look at the picture.
cheers
Sorry guys, I thought I pasted the link of the picture. Here we go:
http://www.wforum.com/newspool/articles/headline/56426.html
cheers
Sorry guys, I thought I pasted the link of the picture. Here we go:
http://www.wforum.com/newspool/articles/headline/56426.html
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Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
Hi, I've been busy recently.
Well I would take Russia off that list immediately, considering that it doesn't have any functioning carriers at the moment - plus the plan to build new ones is still a pipe-dream. Equally the Thai carrier is nothing to write home about. They're not planning to build or purchase any themselves.
India? That's obvious - versus Pakistan. Again a purchase made a while ago - they might not be interested in purchasing more carriers, now that relations are improving.
France? They still think they're a world power and "need" carriers.
UK? Well we're an island nation and about 90% of our imports/exports travel by sea. Plus we have a very long maritime history, longer and more consistant than anyone else I think.
The US? Well they have a lot of fingers in a lot of pies already. They need carriers to be the world's policeman o_0
So where's China's need for carriers? Does it have bases all around the world? Is it an island nation? Or does it want carriers just for the prestige factor?
Well I would take Russia off that list immediately, considering that it doesn't have any functioning carriers at the moment - plus the plan to build new ones is still a pipe-dream. Equally the Thai carrier is nothing to write home about. They're not planning to build or purchase any themselves.
India? That's obvious - versus Pakistan. Again a purchase made a while ago - they might not be interested in purchasing more carriers, now that relations are improving.
France? They still think they're a world power and "need" carriers.
UK? Well we're an island nation and about 90% of our imports/exports travel by sea. Plus we have a very long maritime history, longer and more consistant than anyone else I think.
The US? Well they have a lot of fingers in a lot of pies already. They need carriers to be the world's policeman o_0
So where's China's need for carriers? Does it have bases all around the world? Is it an island nation? Or does it want carriers just for the prestige factor?
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
No offence, but does that picture show anything other than the carrier at dock? Seriously - are they taking it apart, or just pretending they're busy?wp2000 said:
China is growing Economy, like all super economies like ours (UK/US) need stable source of Oil supply free markets are vulnerable to any fluctuations. there. oil supply has to be guaranteed incase they goto war with any country in the region. There Exports that they thrive onn have to go onn un hindered even during war. this is why a country needs defenses. It is to make sure that Economic strategic interests are safeguarded. China need Aircraft carriers since it need to project force in the gulf to make sure its Oil supplies are not cutt off during a conflict with the Tai'sMusashi_kenshin said:
SO?Musashi_kenshin said:
Why Russia used to have A/Cs? Why Thailand bothers to have an A/C?
Or can I say, even Thai, which has absoultely no need for a carrier, still has one?
SO? Because there's a land rival, India needs an A/C?
BTW, India has signed the contract to buy a Russian AC and they have started building a new one themselves. Are they mad?
SO? China can't even think in the same way?
China's import/exports are roughly equal or more than UK, and guess what, most of them travel by sea as well.
And, I can say China is just part of a big island surrounded by the sea, can't I?
History? When China's Navy fleet was visiting Africa, where was UK's navy?
Also, are you saying since UK has been the most consistant naval power for the last few hundred years, other nations should stop trying to be new global naval powers. Well, I wonder why, when China had the strongest navy, British didn't think in your way and just stayed on the islands. Then Spain or China could be the most consistant naval power.
China used be a policeman as well
What if they want to take up their old job? And, they want bigger slices of the pies as well for sure.Basically, all your points about those nations' need for A/C can be applied to China as well.
Frankly speaking, A/C is a tool which is more related to a nation's grand strategy. Its usage is more debatable on the tacticle level. (I have always been in doubt whether China should start building an A/C now). But When some nations see that their future need something, evenif it may turned out to be a waste of resources and time, they will make it happen. You can say they are stupid, but to a certain degree, human history is acutally pushed forward by few fools, not by smart guys who calculate all the time. (I know you understand what I mean, so please don't expand my above sentence).
So, to sumarise it, there's no tactical need of A/C in the forseeble confliction scenarioes that China is facing. But, if PLAN is thinking about something else in a long term and strategic way, then they may want to do that.
What could be their long term and strategic view? I don't know, but more and more evidence show that they are trying very hard to get an A/C.
Cheers!
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