China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.

[John Fedup]

Or Xi might think that the only reason Kyiv wasn't taken was because the Russian army was incompetent, and the mighty PLA would have won the war in a week.

Yes, he may well think the Russians were incompetent (the corruption issue). This same issue is the apparent reason for his culling of top PLA generals of late, albeit this could also be removing potential rivals. The listening to yes-men, a problem all dictators suffer from.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Maybe Xi is more looking to Venezuela than to Ukraine. A full scale war is an option (and a good way to test your weapon systems and armed forces) but it destroys Taiwan and te economy of it, which significantly decreases the value of the conquered country.

What the US did to Venezuela, weaken it by years of sanctions like embargoes and blockades, supporting the opposition, infiltrations, propaganda, bribing corrupt officials and officers, and eventually abducting the leader, takes a lot of patience, but in the end the cost-to-result ratio is much more rewarding than a scenario like Ukraine. And it has also much less negative effect on china's own economy than a full scale invasion.

 

[koxinga]

Or Xi might think that the only reason Kyiv wasn't taken was because the Russian army was incompetent, and the mighty PLA would have won the war in a week.

It is getting to the point where I doubt it is actually corruption all the time but more likely internal power struggles or a good old fashioned Stalin purge. "Serious violations" my ass because this smells like trumped up charges to mask a purge.

Regardless of the actual reasons, removing senior PLA leadership will certainly weaken the PLA's effectiveness.

 

[koxinga]

It is getting to the point where I doubt it is actually corruption all the time but more likely internal power struggles or a good old fashioned Stalin purge. "Serious violations" my ass because this smells like trumped up charges to mask a purge.

Regardless of the actual reasons, removing senior PLA leadership will certainly weaken the PLA's effectiveness.

Been trying to find the original chinese article on PLA Daily for "‘The PLA Must Secure Victory in the Offensive, Protracted, and Comprehensive Campaign Against Corruption" to read for myself.

But if the screenshots from https://x.com/ChinaMacroFacts/status/2015095528191578567/photo/1 are from the article, it seems more insuborination or disagreement with Xi as their key sins. There are plenty of other views in Chinese sphere on what actually happened but those are speculative.

 

[John Fedup]

Regardless of the actual reasons, removing senior PLA leadership will certainly weaken the PLA's effectiveness.

Perhaps Xi should refresh himself on the effects of Stalin's military purges prior to the 1941 German invasion albeit there is little chance of any invasion of China but perhaps a screw up trying to take Taiwan by force could be a result.

 

[koxinga]

Another source: 坚决打赢军队反腐败斗争攻坚战持久战总体战 --时政--人民网

张又侠、刘振立身为党和军队的高级干部，却严重辜负党中央、中央军委信任重托，严重践踏破坏军委主席负责制，严重助长影响党对军队绝对领导。

The bold parts was what was made it somewhat different. If it was purely a corruption issue, the stock / standard statement will be around moral etc.

Most of the critique now speak of Zhang Youxia as a close figure to Xi and also his pedigree (Red princeling, war vet, real army guy), but those are precisely the credentials that would mark him out as a threat to Xi.

 

[crest]

Confirmed: Xi Jinping Purges Top PLA Commanders as Military Turmoil and Taiwan War Fears Mount - Vision Times

Jiang claimed that Cai Qi, a CCP Politburo Standing Committee member and Xi Jinping loyalist, personally oversaw Zhang’s arrest and led a newly formed CMC

www.visiontimes.com

Just some more background on what's going on, seems to be a purge, some talk of a coup tho I find that unlikely. And personally hope that isn't the case or if it works s that there are no links to the west in it.
But definitely something been going on for a bit I do recall important people not being at ceremonies they normally are at recently. Wouldn't be surprised to find out there is truth in the idea it has something to do with a split in the military over Tiwan

 

[crest]

China’s top general under investigation for alleged violations amid corruption crackdown

Zhang Youxia, long seen as Xi Jinping’s closest military ally, reportedly accused of leaking nuclear secrets to US

www.theguardian.com

Another article this one chinas deceleration it's for leaking information to the u.s and corruption. Interesting it's leaking information and not spying. As the two are often treated as the same thing

 

[John Fedup]

Xi is a 70+ year old dictator who likely sees enemies everywhere now and maybe has early dementia….a familiar story of late.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Xi is a 70+ year old dictator who likely sees enemies everywhere now and maybe has early dementia….a familiar story of late.

This is a lesson for all Defencetalk-members who want to become a dictator, don't start too late to become one. How younger, how better. If you start being a dictator after you're 50 years old, you have less than 2 decades to rule in an autocratic way decently.

 

[John Fedup]

This is a lesson for all Defencetalk-members who want to become a dictator, don't start too late to become one. How younger, how better. If you start being a dictator after you're 50 years old, you have less than 2 decades to rule in an autocratic way decently.

More or less correct but the early start didn't work out for the Austrian corporal.

 

[koxinga]

Interesting perspective of someone who actually knows and have interacted with Zhang Youxia.

TLDR: An actual, competent, no political bullshit soldier in a sea of politically correct asskissers. Xi might have taken out a political threat, but he also diminished his own ability to get honest feedback.

The demise of Zhang Youxia hits different

I was genuinely surprised by the announcement of Zhang Youxia's detention. I shouldn't have been. But this feels personal.

open.substack.com

 

[John Fedup]

Interesting perspective of someone who actually knows and have interacted with Zhang Youxia.

TLDR: An actual, competent, no political bullshit soldier in a sea of politically correct asskissers. Xi might have taken out a political threat, but he also diminished his own ability to get honest feedback.

The demise of Zhang Youxia hits different

I was genuinely surprised by the announcement of Zhang Youxia's detention. I shouldn't have been. But this feels personal.

open.substack.com

Interesting read but the "why the removal" is still a mystery. Questionable political loyalty, corruption, or maybe Xi is just another paranoid dictator.

 

[crest]

Interesting read but the "why the removal" is still a mystery. Questionable political loyalty, corruption, or maybe Xi is just another paranoid dictator.

Who knows it could be paranoia or it could've something was afoot it's not like this wasn't a large group of important people here. Truth is I don't think many if any here would know the truth of it. Wat we can ascertain is that whatever it was/is it appears xi is firmly in charge of the state

 

[Catalina]

Eliminating rivlas, Communist Chairman Xi becomes Supreme Military Warlord of Communist China

Unprecedented military takeover of the Chinese Communist military by the totalatarian dictator Chairman Xi. Chairman Xi ousts five of the seven members of the Central Military Commission, leaving remaining only Xi and his puppet Zhang Shengmin, from Discipline Inspection, in control of every nuclear weapon and military unit of Communist China.

Chairman Xi's meglomanic military grab, in violation of CCP rules, will either lead to either:

1. Pacific War with the invasion of Taiwan ordered by Xi, as all sane opposition has been removed.
2. Hardliner revolt with the removal of Chairman Xi, and civil and economic turmoil in China.
3. Collapse of the Communist Chinese Party, and the growth in China of Taiwanese democracy.

Here's hoping for Option 3!

 

[koxinga]

Taipei Is 'Fiddling While Rome Burns' - Domino Theory

Former U.S. admiral Mark Montgomery accuses political leaders in Taiwan of moving too slowly on reserves reform.

dominotheory.com

This was when Montgomery raised his hand and delivered his “Fiddling while Rome burns” blow. Finland and Estonia are not talking about esoteric legal issues, he said, they are taking action. He questioned whether Taiwanese children think about military service in the same way that Israelis or Finns do.

The examples (Finland and Israel) that Montgomery picked isn't exactly equivalent. Israel (versus Arab), and Finland (versus Russia) are truly against external enemies (us versus them).

While China / Taiwan is this us versus them, them isn't external, and it is essentially a continuation of the Chinese Civil War, hence the seemingly lack of conviction among the general population.