China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.

[SolarisKenzo]

Yes it was an official seizure by the italian authorities.

 

[Ananda]

Largest U.S. Drone Manufacturer Says It Will Need To Ration Batteries For Customers After Sanctions By China

Skydio CEO criticized the Chinese government’s sanctions, saying they were an attempt to “eliminate the leading American drone company” and boost Chinese drone suppliers.

www.forbes.com

Well Skydio should preparing themselves anyway. If US can sanction DJI, then China will retaliate sanctioning it's US competitor. However I put this not only talk on this drones trade battle, but put this as example how in my opinion Washington Politicians still think China supply chains on the condition of two decades ago.

That time, yes China supply chains still depends on foreign investors and foreign tech and patents. The condition on drones industry shown their supply chains basically already domestic control and using homegrown tech and patents.


The article behind pay wall so it paste it here:

Chinese sanctions hit US drone maker supplying Ukraine

"This is a clarifying moment for the drone industry,” Bry wrote in a note to customers obtained by the Financial Times. “If there was ever any doubt, this action makes clear that the Chinese government will use supply chains as a weapon to advance their interests over ours. “This is an attempt to eliminate the leading American drone company and deepen the world’s dependence on Chinese drone suppliers,” he added.

Well when US weaponise trade sanctions first, do US officials and businesses still think China will not hit on their sanctions back ? Sorry on this time it is US that use it first and now complaining when China return the favour.

 

[Ananda]

China Has Bought Its Way To The Top Of The Manufacturing Industry. Where Does That Leave America?

American manufacturers waiting for their government to subsidize the industry in a way that matches Chinese support will be waiting a very long time.

www.forbes.com

This is for an Idea, why don't US do what they have done to their MIC, as now to their other Industry. Every industrial nation (whether establish or newly ones) are subsidizing their Industrial chains whether directly or indirectly.

If US close half of their overseas bases for example, that money can be use to support the dual function industry like the commercial drones above. Doesn't have to be direct subsidies, even China mostly don't do that. However with fiscal incentive and money market incentives, just some examples. They got tons of Ivy Leagues business schools graduates in financial market that can provide more subtle ways to subsidies the Industry.

 

[Ananda]

3 U.S. aircraft carriers to be in Asia during presidential transition

Navy sees China as biggest threat to political uncertainty during next 50 days, analysts say

asia.nikkei.com

Is this a sign what to come ? US Will be pivoting more to Asia Pacific rather then Euro and Middle East ? This is talk among transition period, and seems either some in US Inteligence worries about China move, or Pentagon wants to send massage or they all try inlining with what Trump wants.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

The Turkistan Islamic Party looks like a professional rebellion army, but to take up the arms against china is maybe too much.
Uyghur fighters in Syria vow to come for China next

For many years china is a creepy police state, but now it becomes more and more as frightening as in fictional worlds like Minority Report and Psycho-Pass.
China's High-Tech Spherical Security Robot Enhances Policing in Crowded Wenzhou Streets

 

[Wombat000]

Just wondering what the thoughts might be here:
Thinking of the painful trade and economic ramifications to China of the recent and on-going ‘trade war’ between the US and China, and the decoupling downturn in significant trade traffic in key markets.

*Could this current downturn in trade and its economic impact be seen as demonstrating ramifications beyond just military which would result from an initiating conflict around Taiwan and SCS?
*Might this current upheaval in trade markets show that even if confident in a ‘successful’ military action it would be isolating for China and devastating for its trade, its economy and its society. so therefore making the prospect of conflict less probable?

Perhaps there’s more intrinsic incentive in China to at least attempt to maintain a trading status quo?

 

[76mmGuns]

Just wondering what the thoughts might be here:
Thinking of the painful trade and economic ramifications to China of the recent and on-going ‘trade war’ between the US and China, and the decoupling downturn in significant trade traffic in key markets.

*Could this current downturn in trade and its economic impact be seen as demonstrating ramifications beyond just military which would result from an initiating conflict around Taiwan and SCS?
*Might this current upheaval in trade markets show that even if confident in a ‘successful’ military action it would be isolating for China and devastating for its trade, its economy and its society. so therefore making the prospect of conflict less probable?

Perhaps there’s more intrinsic incentive in China to at least attempt to maintain a trading status quo?

I find it difficult to know exactly. the CCP is very tight lipped, but on the other hand there are many china youtube accounts which will pump out videos showing problems China has, such as it's marriage and children issues, masses of factories being closed, factory workers being fired and unpaid, uni graduates sleeping in train stations and high youth unemployment. Even now, before the tariffs, or a war, China has many hidden issues like last year cars, both ICE and EV's were being sold at a loss because things were competitive, and the chinese companies wanted to focus on keeping the factories functioning. There's too many to list here

This is just 1 example of such videos

 

[swerve]

Just wondering what the thoughts might be here:
Thinking of the painful trade and economic ramifications to China of the recent and on-going ‘trade war’ between the US and China, and the decoupling downturn in significant trade traffic in key markets.

*Could this current downturn in trade and its economic impact be seen as demonstrating ramifications beyond just military which would result from an initiating conflict around Taiwan and SCS?
*Might this current upheaval in trade markets show that even if confident in a ‘successful’ military action it would be isolating for China and devastating for its trade, its economy and its society. so therefore making the prospect of conflict less probable?

Perhaps there’s more intrinsic incentive in China to at least attempt to maintain a trading status quo?

Except that meekly accepting Trump's initial tariffs without responding would embolden him & be seen in China as a humiliating sign of weakness. We know that Trump is perfectly capable of tearing up a deal he's negotiated & demanding more: his current tariff mania includes the scrapping of deals he signed, claiming they were brilliant, beautiful, etc. Now he says they were agreed by morons. Doh! He's upped his demands in the current wave of lunacy when foreign governments have seemed to be willing to go along with them.

So, for China, the option of maintaining the status quo can only come about by Trump backing down.

Trump's tariffs are a rejection of the status quo, & unacceptable to China for multiple reasons. China feels they must be fought until Trump gives in & either backs down completely, or shows willingness to negotiate something reasonable - which would require US concessions on pre-Trump rules to get any Chinese concessions. China absolutely insists on being treated as equal. It will not accept a subordinate position.

 

[Ananda]

Both US and China economically not in best possition actually to fight this trade war for long term. This trade war in the end bargaining and 'chicken' game. There're push from US for those nations that bargaining with them to significantly reduce or even cut Chinese supply chains in their own production chains.

This why China issue warning to those nations that's bargain with US toward cutting China supply chains. However it is likely (at least that's what I got from ASEAN nations that's currently in bargaining process with US), they (the ASEAN nation) have to prepared two different supply chains set (if this trade war continues). One exclude using Chinese ones for export products to US, and other still using Chinese ones for export products outside US.

Cutting Chinese supply chains is not efficient for long term production run. This move could result more expensive export products to US compare to export to others. Question now is what's the meaning of Chinese supply chain (from US perspective). Are this means supply chain that's produce in China or Supply chain own by Chinese Investors. The difference will be substantial.

Will this trade war going to switch to hot military war? Personally I still say no, but it will create two seperate production chains potentially on long term.

 

[Wombat000]

I agree, however it does bring into practical realisation the cost of trade embargoes, and perhaps by extension international isolation.

Even if China was militarily successful in Taiwan/SCS scenarios, would it then be reasonable to conclude it would be isolated internationally, diplomatically and in trade?
If so, could it actually survive in a way that might be regarded as positive?

What this trade war sham does incidentally demonstrate is a taste of the pain that would ensue.
Wondering whether that might be enough to dissuade any motivation to do so?

 

[Ananda]

China EV supply chain dominance is the one of the big factor why China EV producers basically can cut huge costs advantage other EV producers.

This Automotive Influencer video on EV Ecosystem trade fair in Jakarta, shown how the dominance of China EV supply chains strategy are. Indonesia like Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia wants and provide incentives for local EV manufacturing. Basically South East Asian want to have their own EV brand and ecosystem. They see EV is chance to break into automotive market that's being dominate by established ICE brands. They see this is chances to build your own brand and industry without breaking the ceiling of ICE tech and Invesment.

This is where China shown their supply chain flexibilities. Rather then complaining on trade barriers or domestic industrial protection, they addapt and give options:

• Invest their own brand manufacturing,
• Rebrand their design as generic option,
• Provide local new brand with design, software, electric motors, battery etc. Basically become suppliers in everything needed.

In sense, they don't care if it is using their own brand or only just being suppliers. They give options to build in China or manufacture locally. As long as it is still connected to their supply chain.

They can work with local brand that want to have bespoke type PT Aletra Mobil Nusantara - Mobil Listrik Ramah Lingkungan. As this example of one Indonesian brand that work with Geely group. Geely then provide design that more suitable to Indonesian market appetite, using their software, systems and motors but build locally on a design they also not use on their own line up. Real bespoke partnership options.

This is basically the flexibilities that China supply chain provide. Something that make, whatever Trump demand hard to break by many Asian market. It is not just matter of costs and accesabilities, it is matter of flexibilities to addapt on each market condition and demand.

This is soft power no matter US Trump or EU call. It is not just matter of lower costs production. Something that India, Indonesia, Thailand, Bangladesh, Vietnam or even Japan and ROK quietly admitted. China want to dominate, but doing it with economics of scale of their manufacturing ecosystems. Making them Partner that hard to side track and left behind.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

China EV supply chain dominance is the one of the big factor why China EV producers basically can cut huge costs advantage other EV producers.

This Automotive Influencer video on EV Ecosystem trade fair in Jakarta, shown how the dominance of China EV supply chains strategy are. Indonesia like Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia wants and provide incentives for local EV manufacturing. Basically South East Asian want to have their own EV brand and ecosystem. They see EV is chance to break into automotive market that's being dominate by established ICE brands. They see this is chances to build your own brand and industry without breaking the ceiling of ICE tech and Invesment.

This is where China shown their supply chain flexibilities. Rather then complaining on trade barriers or domestic industrial protection, they addapt and give options:

• Invest their own brand manufacturing,
• Rebrand their design as generic option,
• Provide local new brand with design, software, electric motors, battery etc. Basically become suppliers in everything needed.

In sense, they don't care if it is using their own brand or only just being suppliers. They give options to build in China or manufacture locally. As long as it is still connected to their supply chain.

They can work with local brand that want to have bespoke type PT Aletra Mobil Nusantara - Mobil Listrik Ramah Lingkungan. As this example of one Indonesian brand that work with Geely group. Geely then provide design that more suitable to Indonesian market appetite, using their software, systems and motors but build locally on a design they also not use on their own line up. Real bespoke partnership options.

This is basically the flexibilities that China supply chain provide. Something that make, whatever Trump demand hard to break by many Asian market. It is not just matter of costs and accesabilities, it is matter of flexibilities to addapt on each market condition and demand.

This is soft power no matter US Trump or EU call. It is not just matter of lower costs production. Something that India, Indonesia, Thailand, Bangladesh, Vietnam or even Japan and ROK quietly admitted. China want to dominate, but doing it with economics of scale of their manufacturing ecosystems. Making them Partner that hard to side track and left behind.

Fitra Eri, Moladin, Om Mobi and many others...it is always fun to watch their videos.

But let's talk about the car and battery industry....

First i am still a little bit skeptical if i see things like this "Mobil Anak Bangsa".... Reminds me of that mobil Esemka project, not just claimed to be totally designed and build by "anak bangsa", but even by SMK-schoolkids... while in fact they came straight CBU from china.

Second, this MAB is "less than Rp250.000.000!" For such an ugly 40 hp electric vehicle with simple basic equipment and a range less than 200 km, thats a lot. Specially if you compare this with a similar car like the new Toyota Hilux Rangga, a much better, rugged and cool looking car, with a 137 hp engine, longer range and proven Toyota quality. That car starts btw around Rp190 million.

It is great that Indonesia is limiting the export of raw nikkel since a couple of years, and process it in country to increase the value and improve the local industry, but as we all know foreign companies (and local ones too btw) do not care about the environment and the local population.

Creating and developing own car and motorcycle companies/manufacturers is not easy, even after decades companies like Proton or Perodua from Malaysia are owned by foreign car companies and/or use their components (Proton is for 49,9% owned by Geely and Perodua is for 25% from Daihatsu).

Sadly the existence of Texmaco Perkasa, Timor and Bimantara ended because of Krismon in 1998 and IPTN's Maleo never became a reality. Hopefully Pindad can keep building vehicles like the Maung, even if many parts are from Isuzu or other brands.

PT Kaisar Motorindo Industries only assembles their motorcycles, with all the engines and other parts coming from china, right?

 

[Ananda]

For local Players on EV, personally I'm going to watch Polytron as it is part of Djarum Group. As one of the biggest Indonesia Conglomerate they have serious capital to back it up. They are already significant player on Motorcycle EV and they are planning to launch their EV SUV soon.

This is also shown how Chinese EV ecosystem playing to reach export market. The car will be base on smaller Chinese EV manufactures. I suspect the smaller Chinese brand knows if they want to survive they need to work out with other nation EV manufactures. Similar thing with Vietnam EV manufactures Vinvast. They are also basically buy Chinese design, work with some smaller Chinese EV producers and sources materials from them. Off course they are also partnering with some Euro chains, but if you want to have competitive costs on building EV, the chains that you have to work with is in China, not Euro Land.

This MAB is basically only doing rebranding some Chinese EV, from what I understand also not having solid production line yet. Understandable from company that back up by political figures. So I'm not yet taking this MAB seriously despite seems they're shown more line up then other competitors. That Aletra brand can have more potential then this MAB, as their products basically support and partner with Geely group. Geely afterall is also Volvo owners, and one of top five of China Automotive producers which many industry analysts predict will be one of Chinese Brand survivor in the next decade.

There are teens of Chinese Automakers, and like any automakers throughout history, most of them will not survive. Only big ones that survive and some of others will be absorb. Or what seems also being shown by trend, going to work as chains suppliers to other countries manufacturer.

 

[Ananda]

Both US and China economically not in best possition actually to fight this trade war for long term.

China quietly exempts some U.S. goods from tariffs, covering around US$40 billion worth of imports

3rd May 2025 – (Beijing) According to Bloomberg, China has quietly started to exempt certain U.S. goods from tariffs, covering approximately $40 billion worth of imports. This appears to be a strategic effort to mitigate the impact of the trade war on its economy. A list of exempted U.S...

www.dimsumdaily.hk

Just like Trump back down on putting tariff exemptions on some products, China also quietly doing the same.



This chart only provide gross output, however don't shown how much they are integrating to each other. The realities level of external sources to each own domestic production chains varies from nation to nation.

However as the article implies, no matter how well China domestic production supply chains integrate internally, they still need external ones. That already shown how interconected production supply chains are. Not something that easy to breake no matter what internal politics wants.

Which back to why this Trade war in the end is bargaining possitioning game. As neither China or US can really afford to loose supply chain dependencies completely.

 

[StevoJH]

It is great that Indonesia is limiting the export of raw nikkel since a couple of years, and process it in country to increase the value and improve the local industry, but as we all know foreign companies (and local ones too btw) do not care about the environment and the local population.

I would argue that you cannot blame the companies (at least not completely). They are operating under Indonesian environmental and workplace safety laws and regulations.

If Indonesia wants foreign companies to operate in a more environmentally friendly and safer way (for workers and local inhabitants), then they need to introduce regulations (with appropriate penalties) and have trained inspectors to enforce those regulations.

 

[Ananda]

Strengthening Water Stewardship: Our Commitment to Transparency and Responsible Mining on Obi Island

To Our Valued Stakeholders, We have taken note of the recent coverage regarding water management systems at Harita Nickel’s operations and their perceived environmental impact. We appreciate the attention and constructive input shared on this issue, as we believe that...

tbpnickel.com

This is the mining company in the DW video, Harita mining on Obi Island. They are now shown that their water treatment plant already within acceptable International standard.

then they need to introduce regulations (with appropriate penalties) and have trained inspectors to enforce those regulations.

As ussual in Indonesia the problem is not the regulations or penalty or technical assesors, it is how to enforce. Because the last one still open to negotiation. However for me I also don't say that DW is all correct, afterall it is DW and all this years shown it has political agenda bias.

Harita is an example of this, it is not only mining but also has integrated downliner up to smelter. It is processing nickel not only as batteries raw material, but also ferro nickel for steel. Most of its partner are Chinese company investing on integrated downstream products.

EU has oppose Indonesia decision to hold Nickel Raw exports and bring it to WTO. Company like Harita with significant Chinese Investment ties, are part of what EU concern. Indonesia already open negotiations with EU with two main possition:

• Nickel downliner industrialisation will stay as this is part of Indonesian sovereignity,
• Indonesia will help EU Investors to involve with Industrialisation of Nickel and Batteries ecosystems chain.

Thus I'm not saying all DW accusation are in exagerating nature and Harita is in clean possition against enviromental concern. However it is grey accusation that part of trade negotiation process. Center of that is EU worries being side line by China on Batteries ecosystem dominance. This is why it is part of Geopolitics rivalry.

With Trump at power now, it is interesting to see how EU possitioning themselves on overall trade rivalry. Including rivalry on dominating batteries supply and production chains. Nickel is just part of that equition.

 

[StevoJH]

Enforcement?

Fines initially, (they are companies, hit them where it hurts). If fines don't work, criminal charges against high level executives for environmental and safety violations.

 

[Ananda]

Yes, enforcement in Indonesia is the one that I say is negotiable. Especially the fines for environmental penalties. There are always fines first, however the calculation of the fines is the one that negotiable.

Environment penalties something that are not really give much attraction, unless it is already too exposed. If the situation shown externally ok, the calculation on details can be negotiate.

 

[StevoJH]

Yes, enforcement in Indonesia is the one that I say is negotiable. Especially the fines for environmental penalties. There are always fines first, however the calculation of the fines is the one that negotiable.

Environment penalties something that are not really give much attraction, unless it is already too exposed. If the situation shown externally ok, the calculation on details can be negotiate.

The amount of the fine is negotiable?!?

What do you mean?

 

[Ananda]

The amount of fine especially on environmental issue determine by on how many finding breaches the company conducted. That's where the negotiations coming. The findings arw the one that can be negotiate. Especially if some of the findings can still cosmetically 'disguised'.

If water is clean enough from the outside apprearance for example, or the chemical waste can still burried deep enough, the findings then can be negotiate. If the company willings to do some cosmetics appreance on the environment conditions, then some negotiations can be arrange.

If the cosmetics cover breaks after some years down the road, then it is the matter for next enviroment audits assesors.