China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.
- Thread starter ngatimozart
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- #662
The figure SIPRI quotes for the PRC for 2020 is an estimated 1.7% GDP, for 2019 / 20 it was 1.9% GDP. Doesn't say 1.4% GDP anywhere.
SIPRI says $252 billion is their estimation，not official figure. The official figure is $208.47 billion, here is the source
China defence spending gets mild boost amid economic caution
China's 2021 defence spending will rise 6.8% from 2020, up slightly from last year's increase and broadly tracking the government's modest growth forecast, as the world's second-largest economy emerges from the repercussions of the coronavirus pandemic.
www.reuters.com
At $208.47 billion，it is around 1.4% GDP
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
I think the point ngatimozart is making is that there is no reason to believe the CCP's official figures because they're not taking account of spending that almost any other country would put into its budget, like R&D.
You must admit the CCP has a pretty bad record on these sorts of things, right? Like how Xi Jinping pledged not to militarise the South Seas and then based missile batteries there.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Agree, CCP data would be questionable. However, service member costs would likely be less. Hard to believe China has the same GDP percentage similar to a military big spender like Canada.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
It's important to remember that China spends more on internal security than defence. I don't have figures for last year right now, but either way it's a lot more as a percentage of government spending than almost any other major democracy pays out. And that's spending that the CCP will not decrease under any circumstances. So at some point in the future either the military budget will have to be cut/frozen, or they'll need to increase taxes/cut social spending that will be equally unpopular.Agree, CCP data would be questionable. However, service member costs would likely be less. Hard to believe China has the same GDP percentage similar to a military big spender like Canada.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Yes, I recall a number of articles detailing the massive budget for internal security. Probably shouldn’t complain as this money could have been invested in hard military assets used externally. Not great for Chinese citizens though.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
No complaints, just an observation that defence isn't the number 1 budget priority - policing the masses is. So there's already something that cannot be cut under any circumstances. They could extend the same protections to defence spending, but then they're really left with little room to deal with the demographic crisis.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
CCP survival most definitely trumps foreign adventures. As time progresses the question becomes at what point does internal security negate foreign adventures. The Ukrainian end point might dictate future Chinese decisions as well.
How much do other countries spend on internal security?
What is the right ratio of internal security spending to defense spending
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Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
In the UK slightly over £20 billion on policing, versus about £46 billion on defence.
The US was about $100 to $120 billion on policing (may exclude the FBI and other similar agencies), versus over $800 billion next year on defence.
You're missing the point. It's not about a ratio, it's about budget priorities.
The CCP's budget priority is internal policing and probably always will be because the CCP's priority is staying in power. This means the PLA's budget could come under stress when the demographic crisis causes a drop in economic growth and tax revenue to fall.
If on the other hand the CCP maintains a growing budget for both internal security and defence, that will require higher taxes that could have a negative affect on the economy (as well as domestic stability).
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- #672
As others have noted my point is that you cannot trust any of the CCP sources for statistics etc. They wouldn't tell you the time of day and if they did it wouldn't be right. Apart from ensuring their own personal security and comfort, the CCP Politburo Standing Committee ensures that both the Security forces and the PLA have sufficient funds to ensure that they can carryout their prime mission which is the protection of the CCP. The reason the the security forces have a higher level of funding is because it is very expensive to police the PRC to the level that the senior leadership require. Stalin, Beria, and Dzerzhinsky would've been extremely jealous of.
Firstly，even if we use SIPRI's estimation，at 1.7% is still pretty moderate.
Secondly，unlike most other countries import lots of weapons，China purchase military hardware from it's own companies. So it's essentially a type of goverment stimulus package，the money goes to Chinese military industrial complex，which in turn could help the economy. The US is doing the same thing.
CCP would never sacrifice economic growth for security like Russia did. Because without economic growth，Xi will find himself difficult to stay in power.
China is a meritocracy country，which is different from your typical dictatorship country where an incompetent ruler can stay in power infinity. In China，the ruler can be brutal/corrupt/unorthodox or whatever，but not a mediocre. If he doesn't get the job done，he cannot stay in power.
This is a 2022 study of PLA structural reform, doctrine, talent trainning etc，from Japanese National Institute for Defense Studies. Worth to read
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- #676
Next thing you will be trying to tell me that the population of Taiwan are just waiting with pure excitement to join the motherland under the kind and gentle guidance of the CCP. Or that the Uyghurs are living in five star holiday camps waited on hand and foot by nubile maidens.
The only reason Xi is in power at the moment is because his faction is managing to hold off the other factions, especially the Jiang faction. The 20th Party Congress in November 2022 will tell us whether Xi is successful or not, unless he is assassinated prior to it. How we will know that is, unless it's a truly spectacular public event, will be when it's announced than Comrade Xi whilst working strenuously for the CCP and the people, suffered a fatal heart attack in his sleep, or something similar. How does one advance in the CCP? By paying the appropriate bribe to the appropriate corrupt person.
The PRC readout of the recent Austin-Wei call is not quite correct.
On Taiwan: if "not handled properly, it will have a subversive effect on the China-US relations." Adding, "the Chinese military will resolutely safeguard national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity." boilerplate template, but continues with a "warning" theme. The PRC readout misquotes US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin as saying, "The US adheres to the one-China principle." He most certainly did not say that, as the U.S. adheres to the "One China Policy" (vs. the PRC's one-China principle), and the readout ends with two more warnings in last paragraph:
As others have noted the last one is interesting. Cleary China feels vulnerable in it's Ukraine position.
I don’t have the data but I also don’t think that PLA promotions are only based on corruption. The Chinese in China do value relationship building (eg. two way street, gift giving), in a way that is often hard to defend. IMO, filling the right billets, at the right time, to be on a certain trajectory, is often the premise of these upward gifts by often qualified officers.
Within certain parameters, I would not blame the Chinese as seeming CCP’s version of China as a meritocracy country.
On Taiwan: if "not handled properly, it will have a subversive effect on the China-US relations." Adding, "the Chinese military will resolutely safeguard national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity." boilerplate template, but continues with a "warning" theme. The PRC readout misquotes US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin as saying, "The US adheres to the one-China principle." He most certainly did not say that, as the U.S. adheres to the "One China Policy" (vs. the PRC's one-China principle), and the readout ends with two more warnings in last paragraph:
(a) stop "military provocations" at sea; and
(b) stop using Ukraine to "smear and sow evidence or threaten and put pressure on China."
As others have noted the last one is interesting. Cleary China feels vulnerable in it's Ukraine position.
Let me add one minor point for completeness.
I don’t have the data but I also don’t think that PLA promotions are only based on corruption. The Chinese in China do value relationship building (eg. two way street, gift giving), in a way that is often hard to defend. IMO, filling the right billets, at the right time, to be on a certain trajectory, is often the premise of these upward gifts by often qualified officers.
Within certain parameters, I would not blame the Chinese as seeming CCP’s version of China as a meritocracy country.
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- #678
There are unconfirmed reports emanating from the PRC that the CCP is now restricting foreign travel for PRC citizens. Earlier there had been reports of people being asked to return their passports to authorities, but now people leaving the country are being thorough questioned by customs officials about their reasons for leaving. If the reason for personal travel is for a holiday, to visit relatives overseas, to study overseas at a non university education institution etc., then no exit permit is given and the passport is cut there and then. Even if you are a dual citizen you will not get an exit permit. Part of the reasoning appears to be that the PRC foreign exchange holdings are quite low, so this is one way of lowering the demand on them. It can also be seen as the continuation on the withdrawal of the CCP from it's globalist outlook and it's return to a Maoist internalistic focus. Finally it could also be seen as ploy in the Jiang faction strategy to discredit Xi before the 20th Party Congress in November of this year.
There's also been a rumour that Xi has been forced to step down at the 20th Party Conference, but as Lei says below it is a rumour only and one that doesn't carry a lot of weight. However she did say that the CCP propaganda has moved from the Russian side and is showing more of the Ukrainian side so this is a shift in the CCP line. It is possible that the Politburo Standing Committee have discerned that Putin isn't going to come out of his Ukrainian invasion gamble on the right side of the ledger. They will never admit that they have made a mistake, nor that they have backed a losing side, but they may quietly shelve any support for Russia except maybe for lip service. As always they will be looking to the north for viable opportunities to recover the territory lost to Russia during the Qing dynasty.
There's also been a rumour that Xi has been forced to step down at the 20th Party Conference, but as Lei says below it is a rumour only and one that doesn't carry a lot of weight. However she did say that the CCP propaganda has moved from the Russian side and is showing more of the Ukrainian side so this is a shift in the CCP line. It is possible that the Politburo Standing Committee have discerned that Putin isn't going to come out of his Ukrainian invasion gamble on the right side of the ledger. They will never admit that they have made a mistake, nor that they have backed a losing side, but they may quietly shelve any support for Russia except maybe for lip service. As always they will be looking to the north for viable opportunities to recover the territory lost to Russia during the Qing dynasty.
Boatteacher
Active Member
I was wondering when we might see some comment from your sources on Xi's future.
The taboloid newspapers Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly ‘suffering brain aneurysm’ | news.com.au — Australia’s leading news site are suggesting both that Xi is unwell with his brain aneurysm, which he wants to treat with traditional chinese medicine, and that his time as leader is limited; with the fallout of his COVID zero policy a possible trigger.
But I haven't seen any additional back up for this
MOD EDIT: Link fixed.
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John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Link doesn’t work.