China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.

[STURM]

I would think that senior military officials in the U.S, Japan, Australia and other countries are fully aware that despite enjoying various key advantages (including more experience, a qualitative edge in various areas, etc); this is no guarantee that - unlike in the past - victory over China by a U.S. led coalition is a foregone conclusion.

The worry is that the Chinese military is more than capable of defending China’s interests; as well as springing a few painful surprises (I’m not referring to the over hyped anti carrier ballistic missiles).

Whether the political leadership of the U.S. and its allies/partners has come to the same realisation or still adopts the attitude that whatever China does or is capable of it will still eventually be defeated; is unknown.

Another unknown is if a conflict turns out badly for either side; will it remain conventional? Unlike the case with Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan; the U.S. will be in conflict with a nuclear power.

 

[cdxbow]

US coastguard getting into the action - US Coast Guard cutters sent to South China Sea to ‘free up shooters’ (news.com.au) and a massive fleet of 220 Chinese 'fishing boats' have moored themselves on Whitsun reef, which is within Manila's exclusive economic zone Philippines accuses Beijing of 'provocative action' after 220 Chinese vessels encroach South China Sea - ABC News

 

[OPSSG]

US coastguard getting into the action - US Coast Guard cutters sent to South China Sea to ‘free up shooters’ (news.com.au) and a massive fleet of 220 Chinese 'fishing boats' have moored themselves on Whitsun reef, which is within Manila's exclusive economic zone Philippines accuses Beijing of 'provocative action' after 220 Chinese vessels encroach South China Sea - ABC News

I have zero sympathy for Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and his problems with his master in Beijing — ASEAN can no longer stand with the Philippines, as his acts to tilt towards Beijing have over-turned the basis for ASEAN unity and harmed ASEAN centrality. Duterte reiterated that he wanted to avoid confrontation with China over maritime claims that "would lead to something we can hardly afford".

Keep in mind that on 12 Feb 2021, Duterte said othe United States must pay if it wants to keep a two-decade-old troop deployment agreement with his country that is central to U.S. strategy in Asia. Duterte, a firebrand nationalist who openly disapproves of the long-standing U.S. military alliance, unilaterally cancelled the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) in an angry response to an ally being denied a U.S. visa. The 180 day sunset period for the VFA has been twice extended, however, to create what Philippine officials say is a window for better terms to be agreed.

This demand to pay for the VFA is crazy, as in 2020, the US had delivered nearly US$30 million worth of weapons to the Philippines, along with the transfer of two C-130Hs and the provision of Foreign Military Financing in Feb 2021.

 

[Stampede]

This chat re the PRC invading Taiwan could all go many ways.

I have no doubt this would be the desirable outcome for the CCP, but are they prepared to pay the blood price to make this happen, and if so, when?
Also what would be the global repercussions for such an action?

These few questions raise many others and to state the obvious, it could all going many ways.

I DON'T doubt that the CCP would be prepared to pay the blood price for Taiwanese occupation, but I'm guarded it will happen anytime soon.
Suggest a more probable outcome would be that it will be achieved through intimidation rather than direct action.

The PRC's rapid military buildup of its armed forces will continue regardless of its domestic economic situation and her internal pressures.
This intimidating force, less than 200 km's from the Island of Taiwan, will be the "what if factor " for The Taiwanese when making choices as to what side they will "butter their bread".

Their economy is very much linked to the Chinese mainland; as Australia has found in recent months, the thumb screws of trade can have a dramatic affect.
But Taiwan is not Australia, it is both geographically and culturally close to the PRC and not as economically diverse.
It has history with the Chinese mainland that Australia does not.
It will need China as an economic partner and certainly not as an enemy.

In the years ahead the PLAN will increasingly sail around the Taiwanese Islands in larger more modern ships and in greater numbers. Her Airforce will continue to provoke Taiwanese airspace. The PRC coast guard will create a Chinese moat of the East China Sea and South China Sea dominating all non military maritime traffic and Taiwan will be left to make some dramatic and suggest prudent decisions as will other players in this political standoff..

Key to this will be the US.
It will end up being a black or white decision for the USA as to whether they are prepared to militarily support Taiwan or not
Do Americans want to pay a blood price to support Taiwan today or into the future.

I doubt it.

This is not Iraq or Afghanistan. China is a near peer nuclear adversary and has military ambitions of been second to no one in the years ahead.
China wants a military commensurate with it's perceived position in the world and is building it as quickly as possible.

This is the big league and it is scary stuff and all the players know it.
Americans are tired of sending its young folk overseas to conflicts with questionable results.
Its a fractured nation with many domestic challenges that will need attention and good governance.

Taiwan is not a priority for America!

There is no political capital in militarily batting for Taiwan.
Even talking tough for domestic political capital will only go so far within the US.
It's a nation that has other more important priority's.
So the USA will rightly continue to bluff and show commitment to the rule of law, but it will be mindful that it's all very well and good to sail a carrier battle group through the Taiwan Strait in peace time, but there is no way you would do that in time of conflict. A generation ago maybe, but not today.

The flip side for China is, have they got the Amphibious forces to take on the Taiwanese today even without the backing of the US?
Others would be better qualified to say, but I'd suggest with the PLAN focusing on building a LHD every six months at some point these and increases in other offensive platforms will be a deciding factor going forward.
These ships may never be actively be used other than contributing to the " what if factor " to help put domestic pressure on the Taiwanese to make difficult choices.
If the current CCP leadership stay in power, then there is a good chance that they will bully Taiwan to join the mainland. Initially they will be given special province status and have some degree of autonomy.
But as recent events in Hong Kong have shown, this will only be a short term privilege.

Then again, the PRC invading Taiwan could all go many ways!

Challenging times for Taiwan and her neighbors both near and far.

Regards S

 

[STURM]

I DON'T doubt that the CCP would be prepared to pay the blood price for Taiwanese occupation, but I'm guarded it will happen anytime soon.

Unless Taiwan declares independence or does something which really alarms/annoys China; there won’t be a conflict anytime soon.

In the event of a conflict however; irrespective of U.S. public opinion or other issues; the U.S. is obligated to help defend Taiwan. Not doing so would be extremely detrimental to the U.S’s key interests and its standing in the world.

Then again, the PRC invading Taiwan could all go many ways!

It could indeed.

China however does not necessarily have to immediately embark on an invasion. It could start with a sea denial campaign; in parallel with cruise/ballistic missiles strikes; to create the conditions for an invasion and to see how others respond.

In the event of an actual invasion; a nightmare scenario would be China rapidly making progress by establishing and consolidating beachheads on the Taiwanese coast and also achieving sea and air dominance in the Straits. How would the U.S. respond?

The standard narrative is that the Chinese can’t possibly mount an invasion and even if they could; timely U.S. intervention would be decisive but if things turn out differently?

Moving men and material across the Straits and actually landing them in the face of enemy opposition is the major challenge (after troops have landed they need to be supplied and sea lanes o communications to China maintained) but then the Chinese have spent years and years developing and refining various plans; they have a pretty good idea by now of what they can and can’t realistically achieve.

 

[Vivendi]

China however does not necessarily have to immediately embark on an invasion. It could start with a sea denial campaign; in parallel with cruise/ballistic missiles strikes; to create the conditions for an invasion and to see how others respond.

I agree with most of what you are saying, but not the part in bold -- missile strikes is going from "gray zone" to an act of war. I don't think CCP would do that "to see how others repond", since there is a high risk that the response will be quite strong. I think that if they decide to start a war, they will go "all in". Hopefully it will not come to that.

Perhaps the most likely scenario is their typical "salami slice" tactic -- they will gradually increase the pressure economically, politically, diplomatically. They will keep sending military planes into the Taiwanese ADIZ, and now also across the median. They are building a large armada of Chinese "militia" ships, perhaps they will also start to become more active around Taiwan.

In other news, Japan is clearly concerned, and is starting to think about how to act:

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Japan is exploring ways its military can help U.S. forces defend Taiwan in the event of an attack by China.

During talks with Japanese Defense Minister Kishi Nobuo on March 16, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin broached the subject of joint U.S.-Japanese cooperation in defending Taiwan if China were to attack. During the meeting, the two sides agreed to cooperate closely in the event of such military aggression, but the details of this coordination have not yet been discussed, reported Nikkei Asia.

During the meeting, Kishi noted the recent dramatic increase in flights by Chinese military planes in the Taiwan Strait. He emphasized the need for Japan's Self-Defense Forces (SDF) to coordinate with their American counterpart in the event of an assault by the People's Liberation Army.

Amid China's stepped-up military aggression towards Taiwan and Japan's proximity to any potential conflict, Tokyo has recently been assessing the viability of releasing "an SDF dispatch order to protect U.S. warships and military planes" if a conflict were to arise, according to the news site.

After the meeting, the two countries issued a lengthy statement in which they stated they would not tolerate China's "destabilizing behavior." Deutsche Welle cited Go Ito, a professor of international relations at Tokyo's Meiji University as saying that "The wording of this statement is surprising in its strength, particularly from Japan's perspective as Tokyo generally prefers to take a more delicate or diplomatic approach."

Japan mulling order to deploy military if China attacks Taiwan | Taiwan News | 2021/03/22

 

[STURM]

I agree with most of what you are saying, but not the part in bold -- missile strikes is going from "gray zone" to an act of war.

Absolutely right, it is and would lead to U.S. intervention but it still is not an an actual invasion and has much less risks. Whether or not it leads to the intended outcome is of course uncertain. It could backfire for China.

If I recall correctly in 1996 the firing of ballistic missiles in the sea led to the USN deploying a carrier group to area; something China wasn’t able to do anything about; unlike the present.

 

[MrConservative]

If I recall correctly in 1996 the firing of ballistic missiles in the sea led to the USN deploying a carrier group to area; something China wasn’t able to do anything about; unlike the present.

In the last month both the USS John Finn (DDG-113) and the USS Curtis Wilbur (DDG-54) did a FONEX cruise through the strait. The Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group and the Nimitz Carrier Strike Group were also both present in the SCS last month conducting FONEX.

 

[Vivendi]

Two Taiwan F-5 crashed today, one pilot killed and the other missing.

This is the third serious accident during the last 6 months, and the 5th during the last 12 months it seems:

A Taiwanese F-5 fighter crashed and its pilot was killed during a training exercise east of Taiwan in October last year. The pilot, who had ejected and was rescued, later died despite hours of emergency treatment.

The next month, an F-16 was lost off the east coast minutes after taking off from a base in Hualien.

Taiwan plans to retire its F-5 jets in 2026, when the U.S. completes delivery of 66 F-16Vs ordered in 2020, CNA reported in October, citing an unidentified military source.

Last January, the island’s most senior uniformed officer and 12 others were killed when the helicopter they were traveling in went down in bad weather in mountains south of Taipei. Two pilots also died when their helicopter crashed following military exercises in July.

Taiwan Grounds Aging F-5 Fighters After Fatal Mid-Air Collision - Bloomberg

 

[JohnJT]

China is facing some severe demographic and economic issues in the next few decades. How well they are able to deal with these problems will have ramifications for the whole world, both economically and security wise.

Here are two excellent videos that explain the problem:

 

[Bob53]

Interesting videos alright. Doesn’t really change the trajectory for the next 10 years but after that is probably a guess to what the real impacts will be. How would a banking collapse effect them?

 

[John Fedup]

Perhaps China’s neighbours should be just as concerned with Chinese criminals kidnapping their women as with the PLA (assuming there isn’t some synergy between the two). Immigration is what has been keeping the US out of this demographic trap, something Trump mutts should take note of. Who wants to immigrate to CCP heaven? Many are trying to leave. The Housing video is interesting, especially the part about people owning 2 or 3 homes. A strange investment strategy if you can’t find renters and where will they find potential buyers in 20 years given the demographics.

 

[swerve]

Depends on where those houses or flats are.

There are a lot of rather hollow villages & small towns in China, places where many of the adults are absent, working in cities. If they were allowed to, many of those workers would like to obtain family housing near where they work, & bring their children to live with them, & go to school locally. A lot of people expect that the hukou (residence permit) system will be abolished, or at least relaxed a lot (IIRC it's already loosened up). At present, if you're registered in a country area, that's where you have access to such things as state schools, health facilities, etc., are allowed to rent or buy housing, & so on. There are limited quotas for converting rural into urban hukous.

If this system was abolished there'd be a huge migration of people to cities. There already has been, but it's been much less than it would have been without the limits imposed by hukous. There are probably a couple of hundred million people currently stuck half way between the rich, developed, major cities, where they earn money, & the rural areas where they're officially residents, & more who'd look for work & housing in the cities if they could.

Imagine the impact on housing markets if they all moved. Wouldn't it be nice to have a flat or two in one of the areas that lot were moving to?

Of course, housing in the areas they come from would be worth bugger-all, but that wouldn't affect city housing markets hundreds of km away.

 

[IPCR_quad]

Xi lays out vision of no single dominant country in the world. By or before 2030 China is expected to overtake America as biggest economy of the world, the exact timing of which depends on whether America locks down because covid, sooner if yes and later if no.

China’s Xi Lays Out Vision for a World Without a Single Dominant Power

In a high-profile speech, the Chinese leader rejected “unilateralism pursued by certain countries” and promoted the U.N. and WTO, and didn’t name the U.S.

www.wsj.com

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

The way china handle Afrika is actually genius. After all their influence grows every year, and now they have at least 25 allies on that continent.

Why African countries back China on human rights

Countries on the African continent need to consider the financial cost of upsetting a powerful ally.

www.bbc.com

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

I haven't found an English news article or report about this, so for now just this link.

China woedend over gepland VN-overleg over Oeigoeren

China angry because of planned UN-meeting about the Uyghurs.

Duitsland, Groot-Brittannië en de Verenigde Staten hebben die conferentie georganiseerd, maar China wil dat de bijeenkomst wordt geannuleerd.

"De Verenigde Staten beweren dat ze geven om de mensenrechten van moslims, ondanks het feit dat de VS moslims heeft vermoord in Afghanistan, Irak en Syrië", zegt de Chinese VN-delegatie. "Het zijn de VS en zijn bondgenoten die het grootste aantal moslims ter wereld hebben vermoord."

The conference will be organized by Germany, Great-Britain and the United States, but china demands cancellation of the meeting.

"The United States claims that they care about human rights, but they are the ones who murdered muslims in Afganistan, Irak and Syria. The US and its allies are the biggest muslim-murderers of the world."

China woedend over gepland VN-overleg over Oeigoeren

Duitsland, Groot-Brittannië en de Verenigde Staten hebben een digitale conferentie georganiseerd over de mensenrechtenschendingen in de regio Xinjiang.

nos.nl

 

[ngatimozart]

I haven't found an English news article or report about this, so for now just this link.

China angry because of planned UN-meeting about the Uyghurs.

The conference will be organized by Germany, Great-Britain and the United States, but china demands cancellation of the meeting.

"The United States claims that they care about human rights, but they are the ones who murdered muslims in Afganistan, Irak and Syria. The US and its allies are the biggest muslim-murderers of the world."

China woedend over gepland VN-overleg over Oeigoeren

Duitsland, Groot-Brittannië en de Verenigde Staten hebben een digitale conferentie georganiseerd over de mensenrechtenschendingen in de regio Xinjiang.

nos.nl

Me thinks that they doth protesteth to much. My apologies to the bard Shakespeare. The more that they protest the more that it implies that they have something to hide. When it comes to allegations of crimes against humanity and genocide, one would want to believe that an innocent nation would be doing all that is humanly possible to prove its innocence, not hinder or prevent independent verification. This stinks more than a two week old dead sheep.

 

[cdxbow]

The new Soman government is cancelling the proposed PRC port development Samoa to scrap China-backed port project under new leader Fiame Naomi Mata'afa - ABC News

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Actually quite logic.
Acting alone gives often not much impact and makes you an easy target for boycots and embargoes.

Don't take on China alone, says ex-Australia PM Kevin Rudd

Former Australian PM Kevin Rudd says countries should work together if they seek to challenge China.

www.bbc.com

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

| A spokesman for the Chinese embassy in London was quoted by Reuters news agency as saying: "The days when global decisions were dictated by a small group of countries are long gone.

"We always believe that countries, big or small, strong or weak, poor or rich, are equals, and that world affairs should be handled through consultation by all countries." |

What a beautiful speech...

G7 summit: China says small groups do not rule the world

The G7 leaders, who are meeting in England, have sought a unified position over China's rise.

www.bbc.com