The round trip distance is at the extreme range for a SSK round trip.
West coast of Canada is doable but hardly close. A round trip through the NW passage is longer via poorly charted waters with $hit weather and questionable ice conditions.
Agreed, it would be ultra challenging, demonstration of projection of power type stuff. However with subs, public domain is notoriously inaccurate.
I believe 6000 km is ferry range, combat range is 2000 km with external tanks. The distance from eastern Siberia to southern Ontario (Toronto) is 6000 km (one way). Vancouver is marginally more realistic but this would likely involve naval aircraft from a PLAN carrier
Doesn't have to be a bombing run. They could be equipped in a ferry type/clean configuration. China's got a growing YY20 fleet. 1-2 a year being added. With 8 operational. Again, public domain, highly speculative. The J20 has significant range, more bomber type range than european/US fighter range. The distances are no longer insurmountable.
The Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is operating more Xi'an Aircraft Company Ltd (XAC) YY-20A air-to-air refuellers than before.
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I don't think its ultra likely, but my point is there are more options than just firing nuclear tipped ICBM in an all or nothing game. China isn't Soviet Russia, China love to play grey games.
I doubt Xi would offer J-20s to Russia that wouldn't involve Russia giving up crown jewel defence technologies that Putin wouldn't want to do.
Perhaps. Russian basing is more believable. In Russia's current chaotic state and future chaotic states, its likely open to the wishes of China.
FoN between Taiwan and China is a passage between two countries in international waters (only China disputes this). The NW passage is within Canada.
Canada's primary security partner, the US disputes this statement. Its as disputed as China's claim of Taiwan waters being internal.
Realistically, how many more US assets would be required above what is already present in the Arctic along with forthcoming Canadian assets (P-8s, MQ-9s and later SSKs)? As for chaos between Canada and the US, China has no need to do this, the IOTUS is doing it for them at zero cost.
Well in the current state of play, there are lots more threats coming from down south. Again, not just firing nuclear tipped ICBM at Canada.
Honestly with the production of effective ABM capabilities on all sides, ICBMs are now likely pretty ineffective as a threat. You can no longer assert complete destruction of the other state. Many will get through, but every day the ICBM becomes less of a primary threat (if it ever was).
I do think the idea that Canada will always be totally protected from every threat, from HDAR, through to high scale peer and nuclear war, by its southern neighbour is extremely unrealistic given the current political climate. I would also add that the southern neighbour initself its owns threats to Canada.
Countries often manage US influence and interference in their own regions. For many good reasons.
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