Was wondering what others thoughts where on threats to Australia from some of the large neighbours around us especially India, China and Indonesia.
First of all, a threat is defined as an intent + a capability. Neither Indonesia, China or India have an intent to use military force against us. By definition then, we do not face a threat.
However we must also look at capability, because an intent can change very quickly, whereas a capability can not.
To put capability into some perspective, we must include the geographic realities Australia has in her favour.
India is about 7000k's away from Australia.
China's is about 5500k's away from Australia.
There are a significant number of allied nations stationed between China and Australia and we are supported by the United States.
There is a very large amount of ocean between Australia and China and between Australia and India. Such has to be crossed either by air, sea or space, for anyone to be capable of inflicting harm through military means on Australian soil.
To cross these sorts of gaps you either require extensive power projection and support capabilities or ICBM's.
Neither China nor India have the power projection and support capabilities necessary to conduct sustained combat operations that far from home and neither are actively seeking same.
Both have ICBM's but if they launched same against us, they would receive same in kind from our allies. Even if our allies would not support us in the face of a realistic ICBM threat, there is nothing we could do against ICBM's anyway, except build our own. That isn't going to happen, so we'll all just have to hope the threat of our allies own ICBM's is sufficient.
Indonesia does not have a military capable of expeditionary operations (ie: operations overseas). It is designed for internal security operations and in any case, is markedly inferior in quality and size (of relevant platforms) to ADF.
I realize at the moment we are pretty safe as our AF and Navy can stop most threats before they get here but India especially is rapidly building up its long range capabilities.
They are building some new surface ships and attempting to acquire some new submarines. They have a plan to acquire 3x aircraft carriers, but are having trouble even bringing one into service.
They are not building up significant fleet replenishment and amphibious warfare assets capable necessary for extended range expeditionary operations.
They already have numerous surface ships fitted with modern missiles capable of firing around 300km (similar to us), There SU30's could probably make it to WA with tankers help and within the next 10 years will have 3 aircraft carriers mostly fitted with Mig-29k (or newer) which could pose a major threat.
They have acquired the Adm Gorshkov in 2004, which they have re-named INS
Vikramaditya and are attempting to turn this vessel into a medium weight aircraft carrier. The planned capability for this vessel is to mount an air group comprising 16x MiG-29K fighters.
They have spent more than $2b on this vessel and 6 years work, to so far no result. The current plan is for the work to be done by 2012, but Russia just announced further unspecified schedule delays and upped the price by another $439m.
The additional 2x carriers are even less developed in acquisition plans and are intended to be domestically developed. Such is not an easy thing, as China has shown...
The presence of the INS
Vikramaditya, should it ever actually make it into service is not an overwhelming capability and one that ADF could easily handle, in it's "own backyard".
The SU-30 could not make a long range mission against Western Australia, launching from India. IAF does not have the tanking capacity for it.
The USAF conducted the El Dorado Canyon raids against Libya in 1986, with much greater ranged strike aircraft (F-111) and vastly superior tanking capability, just for that operation than operated by the entire IAF.
The USAF employed 24x F-111 strikers for that mission and 28x air to air refuelling tankers. The Indian Air Force operates a total of 6x IL-78 MIDAS air refuelling tankers.
The 24x F-111 strikers flew a total of 4100nm in that raid (7500k's) and each aircraft required 6x mid air refuellings.
You are proposing an Indian air force strike mission against Australia launched from India with a round trip of more than 14000 kilometres (7550 nautical miles) using aircraft with a much shorter range than an F-111 (thereby increasing the number of air refuellings required) but with less than a quarter of the number of refuellers required to fly half the distance in El Dorado Canyon.
Sorry mate, the distances are just too far for this to ever work out. To conduct air launched raids against Australia, India would need to significantly invest in air refuelling assets as well as intercontinental bombers. They simply aren't doing it.
All of the above goes for China as well, though the distances are a fraction shorter, they are still too great for tactical fighter based strike missions.
The only possible way would be to base PLAAF or IAF assets within land based range of Australia and this basically means Timor or PNG. Regiments of PLAAF or IAF fighters and support asset would need to be based within range of Australia and this would be seen as a very provocative action, somewhat akin to the "Cuban Missile Crisis" though obviously with less at stake.
Again, for what purpose, I am not sure.
I know with JORN we can see them along way off, but i think we will struggle to actually do anything about it, and if they managed to land ground forces and keep them supplied we would be in serious trouble.
Why would we "struggle to do anything about it" when our aircraft are based here, but they who have to fly thousands of nautical miles just to get here, can apparently roam around as they please? It defies all sense.
India operates no strategic bombers and China only operates old Russian Badger aircraft. China has no capability to support these old, slow bomber aircraft with escorts at such a range and they would be slaughtered by RAAF fighters if they ever tried. It would be a suicidal attempt by them.
Neither China nor India possess strategic level amphibious warfare capability and again, no air power capable of supporting such a force anyway. Such a force would be slaughtered by RAN and RAAF assets before it got anywhere near Australia's coastline, even if the US sat idly by and watched nations sail invasion fleets against a friendly Country and did nothing...
China is also doing alot to modernise and upgrade its military and have already mentioned numerous times they want there navy taking a larger role in the pacific and being able to counter the US and is currently building nuclear sub facilities and an Aircraft carrier.
They are not alone there, we and the USA are doing the same (we are not building an aircraft carrier though).
However the long ranged amphibious warfare capability, long ranged conventional strike capabilities and deployable air combat power capabilities, plus the extensive support capabilities needed to conduct inter-continental warfare, simply are NOT be built and are not projected to be built, even by the Countries you think might want them.
That these non-existent and non-projected threats are the best that some "analysts" are able to come up with, shows how devoid of logic and sense they truly are...
