Australia/New Zealand and Fiji relations and the China question.

[steve33]

I think making comparisons between China 2010 and Japan pre 41 is a bit of a strawman as the PRC has not made any imperial moves of any sort against it neighbours and has made no signs of so doing.

The Chinese Australian trade does raise two points however.

1) The idea of a Chinese military facility at Fiji is not totally far fetched considering the major economic interest has in supply from Australia.

2) Australia needs to be a bit more realistic about its own national interest and consider where its current prosperity is coming from and why it has avoided the worst of the global downturn. At the end of the day China could more easily replace Australian supply than Australia could find a new customer with Chinese sized demand and the deep pockets of Chinese companies and Banks for Inward Investment in Australian Corporations.

You are going to see the earths resources put under a strain like never before in the next 100 years there will be no shortage of buyers for raw materials.

 

[t68]

I think making comparisons between China 2010 and Japan pre 41 is a bit of a strawman as the PRC has not made any imperial moves of any sort against it neighbours and has made no signs of so doing.

The Chinese Australian trade does raise two points however.

1) The idea of a Chinese military facility at Fiji is not totally far fetched considering the major economic interest has in supply from Australia.

2) Australia needs to be a bit more realistic about its own national interest and consider where its current prosperity is coming from and why it has avoided the worst of the global downturn. At the end of the day China could more easily replace Australian supply than Australia could find a new customer with Chinese sized demand and the deep pockets of Chinese companies and Banks for Inward Investment in Australian Corporations.

Comparisons are just that a comparison, the sanctions imposed by the United States were in part to deal with the Japanese and their invasion of Manchuria in September 1931.
The thinking of the time is not that much different to some of the more recent events in the last 20 years IE Iraq, North Korea and now Iran, with Iraq the only nation to move on a smaller nation with hopes of exploiting there natural resources. Much can be said about the coalition of the willing in part protecting their own national interests. But with sanctions cause more internal turmoil as can be seen with Iraq up until GWII.

A move by china with an overmatch of aid to Fiji while commendable is a direct move on Australia/New Zealand influence in the South Pacific, but with that aid comes a price whilst the infrastructure is much need, entire projects are being done in whole by Chinese manpower and equipment brought over by the Chinese lock stock and barrel. Fijian nationals are being lock out on the very importance of that aid providing jobs and self esteem for the Fijian people. In time Fiji will be so reliant on aid from China that it can impose its will in future decision making in the name of Chinese national interest.

Australia won’t cut off the very hand that feeds it. As we all can see Chinese investment in Australia is growing at a rapid rate how sustainable the rate is I do not know. With direct large investment in Australia and now slowly into the South Pacific rim the Chinese are protecting their own national interests which will inevitably influence Australian foreign policy.

 

[opti]

Hey all new member here

Like it or not China is going to be a major player in the Pacific Region, as the other posters mentioned the PRC is beginning to spread its wings beyond it's borders as it grows in wealth and industrial power. The other posters made valid points as to the strains this will place on the Political situation, especially with regards to natural resources that the Asian Powerhouses will be looking to gain to ensure continued and solid growth. Is it so hard to believe that they will risk confrontation with the west and the United States to ensure the future growth of their nation?

T68 made very valid points about the ties Australia has formed with China in terms of economics and it's fair to say that New Zealand is tied in much the same way (esp. with the free trade agreement). We here in New Zealand are having to address pertinent issues such as chinese and other foreign investment groups buying up land over here in New Zealand, one example of this being the Chinese backed bid to buy Crafar Farms.

We need to make a clear strategy for dealing with the changes in the Geopolitical situation in the Pacific and how we are going to ensure the future security of New Zealand which by nature means helping to ensure the security of other pacific nations. Can New Zealand and Australia remain neutrally aligned? Or do we need to make significant changes as to how we see ourselves in the Pacific Region?

It might be easy for New Zealanders to dismiss the situation by making claims that we would never be drawn into a conflict. But New Zealand has potential in its untapped natural resources and this might just be enought for a resource hungry nation to justify the military effort needed to conquer us. This risk increases greatly with a real conflict between the major powers and we need to accept that New Zealand's future isn't so rosy.

 

[OpinionNoted]

In regards to china courting fiji and any basing rights that may entail,and if the us isnt in or accepting a decline in her global role,then i find it nonsensical that the us would allow chinese bases in the western pacific...which would be specifically designed to contain the us to the mid to eastern pacific.
I thought that the us is in the process of setting up alliance structures to do the same very thing to china...so i ask why would the us allow the chinese to have bases in the western pacific?
The chinese can certainly try but their not going to have much support,other than 2 bit pacific island states who have a grievenace mentality ttowards western countries.

 

[OpinionNoted]

If the chinese were to successfully set up a string of western pacific bases,thereby a blocking mechanism to the freedom of movement to and fro from the us to australia,what as a nation would that exactly entail for australia?
If there was no us action to remedy the situation,what would be australias response to her new found circumstances?
Would australia accept the new status quo and adapt to it,or would there be a move towards greater military self reliance?...whereby no capability is rulled out...

 

[swerve]

What are you suggesting? That Chinese ships operating from SW Pacific states intercept merchant ships on the high seas, & prevent passage?

Do you really think that would be accepted?

 

[OpinionNoted]

What are you suggesting? That Chinese ships operating from SW Pacific states intercept merchant ships on the high seas, & prevent passage?

Do you really think that would be accepted?

not a bit.
but in a fancifull scenario be interesting to see australias response.

 

[t68]

In regards to china courting fiji and any basing rights that may entail,and if the us isnt in or accepting a decline in her global role,then i find it nonsensical that the us would allow chinese bases in the western pacific...which would be specifically designed to contain the us to the mid to eastern pacific.
I thought that the us is in the process of setting up alliance structures to do the same very thing to china...so i ask why would the us allow the chinese to have bases in the western pacific?
The chinese can certainly try but their not going to have much support,other than 2 bit pacific island states who have a grievenace mentality ttowards western countries.

If let’s say that Fiji do lean towards china and allows China to set up a naval presence in the greater pacific area, how can the US intervene short of invasion to stop Fiji. Diplomatic exchanges from Australia and New Zealand have been going on for quite some time now to no avail. What will the US do wave the big stick at them, it will only drive them towards the Chinese camp more.

The US action in Cuba is anything to go by in the 50/60’s waving their big stick is not the mantra to solving the problem in Fiji .

 

[t68]

not a bit.
but in a fancifull scenario be interesting to see australias response.

Unless China commits piracy on the high seas Australia response will entail a sharp increase in defence spending. With the RAN and RAAF the main benefactors in such an escalation and would not surprise myself that the US have a permanent naval presence in Nth Queensland or Darwin or even perhaps possible New Zealand in response to a sharp increase in Chinese naval presence in the South Pacific, which would in effect circle Chinese South pacific fleet with assets in Hawaii, Japan, Australia/New Zealand..



PS
Sorry for the post straight after the other not sure how to make multi post to one person from 2 diffrent post.

 

[foxdemon]

What implications are there if Fiji does align itself with china both in a military and political sense?
With Chinese influence expanding could other countries in the south pacific look at what Fiji are receiving from them and also look towards china as well forming a strengthened Chinese pacific out look?

Chinese influence in the South Pacific predates the current situation in Fiji. Over the last decade or so both the PRC and Taiwan have been cultivating South Pacific states in a competion to secure UN voting numbers to support their respective goals. This has already lead to some embarassment for the PRC when their nations were chased out of the Solomon Islands.

Fijian politics is complex due to the problematic relations between the two major ethnic groups, the Polynesians and the Indians. I would imagine Chinese support of the reactionary elements amoung the Polynesians will not enamor them to the local Indian community. Thus long term influence from Bejing over Fiji in not at all certain.

A number of posters have spectulated about the potential military implications of a Chinese base in Fiji. At first glance this would seem to threaten communications between the ANZAC nations and the USA. However it is not clear that such a base would be of much value in the advent of a general war between the PRC and the USA as the Chinese navy would be unable to maintain communiction lines with Fiji. The USMC would reduce an isolated garison in Fiji in short order.

Another point made on this thread is the likely reaction from Australia and New Zealand will be to take defense issues much more seriously resulting in arms build up and strenghtened alliances. Surely this would not be in Bejing's long term interests. So a military base intended to interdict ANZAC/USA sea communications might not be the motivation for Chinese interest in Fiji. Perhaps Bejing wants a port from which to operate their antartic prospecting missions? Or it could be just a continuation of the previous rivalry with Taiwan in relation to UN voting numbers?

In any event, the lose of influence with Fiji does show the Australian political establishment needs to smarten up. However I think it will take much more than an issue like this to cataylise a change in attitudes of the Australian political elites. The old problem of complacency that Donald Horne warned us about in his book "the Lucky Country" is alive and well.



Note: By 'lucky country' Donald Horne mean't 'bloody lucky we are still here' and not 'fortunately or special country' as many have erroniously interpeted him.