Australia/New Zealand and Fiji relations and the China question.

[t68]

Interesting posturing happening in Fiji at the moment,
Fiji wants to replace Pacific allies with China - Yahoo! News

Pressure on Fiji fails as China lends hand



Commodore ''Frank'' Voreqe Bainimarama posturing to align the country with china, he goes on to say Australia, New Zealand and also America that we don’t understand the reforms he wishes to implement in Fiji and by align with the Chinese is a way to move forward for the county as china looks out side of the box.

China appears to be investing a lot of money and time into the country, perhaps looking to get a foothold in the greater pacific area. Indication that they would like to set up a navel presence in the country looks to be gaining some sort of momentum but was dismissed buy western diplomat as being fanciful, but discussion have taken place between high levels of Chinese government and Fiji government.
Commodore Bainimarama is anti western counties such as Australia/New Zealand for reason i am not totally sure of, is Canberra dictating to Fiji to much, not enough foreign aid being given to the smaller island countries of the pacific?. But press coverage of the situation is down to by lines like they are an irritation to us in the local newspaper.

What implications are there if Fiji does align itself with china both in a military and political sense?
With Chinese influence expanding could other countries in the south pacific look at what Fiji are receiving from them and also look towards china as well forming a strengthened Chinese pacific out look?

 

[riksavage]

Interesting posturing happening in Fiji at the moment,
Fiji wants to replace Pacific allies with China - Yahoo! News

Pressure on Fiji fails as China lends hand



Commodore ''Frank'' Voreqe Bainimarama posturing to align the country with china, he goes on to say Australia, New Zealand and also America that we don’t understand the reforms he wishes to implement in Fiji and by align with the Chinese is a way to move forward for the county as china looks out side of the box.

China appears to be investing a lot of money and time into the country, perhaps looking to get a foothold in the greater pacific area. Indication that they would like to set up a navel presence in the country looks to be gaining some sort of momentum but was dismissed buy western diplomat as being fanciful, but discussion have taken place between high levels of Chinese government and Fiji government.
Commodore Bainimarama is anti western counties such as Australia/New Zealand for reason i am not totally sure of, is Canberra dictating to Fiji to much, not enough foreign aid being given to the smaller island countries of the pacific?. But press coverage of the situation is down to by lines like they are an irritation to us in the local newspaper.

What implications are there if Fiji does align itself with china both in a military and political sense?
With Chinese influence expanding could other countries in the south pacific look at what Fiji are receiving from them and also look towards china as well forming a strengthened Chinese pacific out look?

The next twenty odd years are going to be very challenging for Aus/NZ, both will be forced to deal with a growing Chinese presence and a diminishing US one. China plays the long game, It's 1,500 billion bank account means it can buy influence over time in the region and use its huge diaspora to assert local influence (just look at the real wealth in the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia - most in ethnic Chinese hands).

China can also hide behind the old mantra - we don't get involved in domestic affairs to overcome any political fall-out from the West. Any out of favour country with potential friendly ports or with extensive natural reserves will be high on China's shopping list. If Fiji continues down the road of military dictatorship, then courting China will mitigate the need for a continued reliance on Aus/NZ financial and economic support. China can simply offer to build a new deep water port facility in exchange for certain access rights, the same way they did in Pakistan.

One day, as China grows in confidence and strength, we might start to hear 'Asia for Asian's', more pressure exerted on the US to seriously downsize its military presence in the region. The Chinese have long memories about being on the receiving end of Western and Japanese Imperialism, they know the boot will soon be on the other foot. and ready to kick hard!

Japan and Korea will be interesting countries to watch though. Both are technologically advanced with the potential to stand-up impressive, large and well resourced militaries. If I was Aus/NZ I would worry too much about Fiji but would instead push very hard to strengthen military ties with Japan/Korea and build up my submarine and airforce assets (Aus already doing so, NZ has taken a Republic of Ireland approach). It's only a matter of time before Japan changes its constitution and plays a more overt role, the country has no choice, it will have to compete for natural resources like China and Aus offers the perfect partner in this regard.

The next real shooting war, one which is not totally one sided (GWI & II), will more than likely kick-off in Asia - too many growing economies competing over the same natural resources, from water to oil & gas.

 

[Ananda]

With increasing influence economics and politics, China certaintly will try to increase it's influence Internationally. If China willing to increase it's stake in South America and Africa, why not Pacific.

However whether this means that Pacific nation will losen their cooperation with Western powers (represent in Pacific by Australia and New Zealand), need to be seen further.
It could be part of the game of small nation trying to gain maximum from competing bigger nations.

 

[Ananda]

The next twenty odd years are going to be very challenging for Aus/NZ, both will be forced to deal with a growing Chinese presence and a diminishing US one. China plays the long game, It's 1,500 billion bank account means it can buy influence over time in the region and use its huge diaspora to assert local influence (just look at the real wealth in the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia - most in ethnic Chinese hands).

Rick, those Chinese diaspora are more Capitalist in heart than Chinese. They are more intend to move to Australia, NZ, US, UK, Canada, then go back to China if something Happen on ASEAN.
China are easier to incresed it's influences on Africa, South America, even Pacific than Asean (especially with original five). Especially bigger Asean nation (original five plus Vietnam), have strong willingness to engage China but still with cautionous attitude in the back.

Look what happen on Defence Cooperation between Indonesia and China. We have good talked and commitment, but the real project goes to cooperation with South Korea, another cautious Chinese neighbour.

 

[StevoJH]

Some stuff off the top of my head.
- Singapore Trains in Australia.
- There is Buttersworth in Malaysia with a Rifle company rotating through
- There is FPDA with Singapore and Malaysia
- Australia <-> Japan defense cooperation is increasing yearly.
- Australia is putting a lot of effort into the Indonesian Military

Regarding Fiji, the Australian government probably should have intervened while it had the chance.

 

[t68]

The growing China influences in the south pacific region reminds me a little bit of the first co-operative dealing’s between Russia/Cuba in the late 1950’s after the Cuban Revolution, understandably their are fundamentally difference in the reason of the former Soviet Union courting Cuba as we all know what happen in the Cuban missile crisis.

But i do believe it is the beginning of Chinese push against American/Australian/New Zealand and English influence in the south pacific region. If in the future with access to a deep water port in Fiji, china will have a dominate influence of events in the south pacific with smaller nation plus interdiction of trade from Australia across the other pacific nation’s plus our own trade with America.

Australian foreign policy will have to accommodate Chinese influences so not to spark an arms race in the region. I would imagine it might be the catalyst for New Zealand to rethink their posture in matters relating to defence.
I believe a dominate China in the pacific would have long term effects on future strategic decision’s made not only by Australia/New Zealand but the United States as well in relation to Taiwan and other’s .

 

[aussienscale]

You are right Stevo, We should have done something when we had the chance. If it is seriously looking like China getting a foothold in Fiji and the possibility of the Naval presence there, forget it ! it won't happen ! Aus/NZ/US/JPN/KOR Etc Etc Etc will be bashing down the doors of the UN security council to disband the Military control of Fiji. No way will any of these countries stand idly by and alow China to build a Naval base in Fiji !! it just won't happen

 

[Sampanviking]

Well, what exactly do people expect to happen? Pontification of the sort that the West has excelled in over the years is fine when you are the only show in town, but rather less effective when up against competition.

The fact remains that this is no inscrutable Chinese conspiracy but the end result of decades of western Power incompetence. Rather than support stable government, US/AUS/NZ etc have been happy to promote chaos as long as it undertaken in the "right name".

China has given them Water Reservoirs, Roads and Power Stations, while the West gave them lectures and such useful instruction as "Transgender issues awareness".

A Chinese military presence on the Island seems unlikely, but more importantly, Fiji is the first Pacific Island to vote with its feet. I think it highly unlikely that it will be the last!

 

[t68]

You are right Stevo, We should have done something when we had the chance. If it is seriously looking like China getting a foothold in Fiji and the possibility of the Naval presence there, forget it ! it won't happen ! Aus/NZ/US/JPN/KOR Etc Etc Etc will be bashing down the doors of the UN security council to disband the Military control of Fiji. No way will any of these countries stand idly by and alow China to build a Naval base in Fiji !! it just won't happen

I think we can all see how the UN has been on top of the Iran/Nth Korea problems. The United States could do nothing about the Soviet presence in Cuba till evidence of a first strike capability become known , unless China deploys ICBM in Fiji there not a lot we can really do, we can protest to the UN all we like but it will not change anything.

China will dismiss the UN posturing say it is there under request of the present government and providing benefits to the small pacific nation. It appears Bainimarama is playing a good game of poker but is he holding all the aces or just the joker, might be time to call someone’s bluff. Whichever way he goes i don’t think he can lose. Do we throw money at Fiji to keep in Australian influence or the money goes to defence to keep in check a dominate china in the pacific?

I also do not think an Australian intervention in Fiji would have helped the situation. Once there it would suck the county dry and would mean a full time presence the country which we could not sustain and it would have been scene as Australia dominating her will on a smaller nation.
History tell us intervention and installing a government’s who supports you but not the people of the country is recipe for disaster and lead to more internal turmoil.

 

[StevoJH]

I also do not think an Australian intervention in Fiji would have helped the situation. Once there it would suck the county dry and would mean a full time presence the country which we could not sustain and it would have been scene as Australia dominating her will on a smaller nation.
History tell us intervention and installing a government’s who supports you but not the people of the country is recipe for disaster and lead to more internal turmoil.

Either a special forces intervention against the Admiral himself (werent there SAS on the LPA's?) or a precision strike by the F-111's should have been enough.

Take off the head of the snake, and somehow I doubt there was have been a coup.

 

[StingrayOZ]

A Chinese foot hold in Fiji will be a pain for both AUS and US. As it eats in the the buffer and allows chinese assets to be further afield. I think its unlikely, many nations would be upset about that one.

I think this will make Fiji more unstable, as the chinese seem quiet happy to talk to anyone who is in charge as long as they get what they want from the relationship.

People in Fiji would like to start a bidding war between the east and west for support. However, thumbing Australia too much will get painful, Australia is closer, it is the regional military power, it has the rich tourists, culture and trade.

 

[t68]

An interesting but unofficial source from the Australian newspaper about the amount of aid to Fiji, not sure how accurate it will be though.

China's help may harm Fiji | The Australian
Fiji

interesting train of thought on Chinese near the bottom of the story, china could be trying to curry favor to Australia by helping out in the pacific, different but interesting line of thought.

 

[steve33]

You are right Stevo, We should have done something when we had the chance. If it is seriously looking like China getting a foothold in Fiji and the possibility of the Naval presence there, forget it ! it won't happen ! Aus/NZ/US/JPN/KOR Etc Etc Etc will be bashing down the doors of the UN security council to disband the Military control of Fiji. No way will any of these countries stand idly by and alow China to build a Naval base in Fiji !! it just won't happen

If the Chinese want to build a naval base in Fiji they wil just do it they don,t give a toss what other people think and the U.N is a joke.

 

[steve33]

Well, what exactly do people expect to happen? Pontification of the sort that the West has excelled in over the years is fine when you are the only show in town, but rather less effective when up against competition.

The fact remains that this is no inscrutable Chinese conspiracy but the end result of decades of western Power incompetence. Rather than support stable government, US/AUS/NZ etc have been happy to promote chaos as long as it undertaken in the "right name".

China has given them Water Reservoirs, Roads and Power Stations, while the West gave them lectures and such useful instruction as "Transgender issues awareness".

A Chinese military presence on the Island seems unlikely, but more importantly, Fiji is the first Pacific Island to vote with its feet. I think it highly unlikely that it will be the last!

Could you explain further about the so called chaos promoted by US/AUS/NZ.

 

[aussienscale]

If the Chinese want to build a naval base in Fiji they wil just do it they don,t give a toss what other people think and the U.N is a joke.

So using that argument and intelect, who gives a rats what China thinks, if we don't want them to we will not let them

 

[steve33]

So using that argument and intelect, who gives a rats what China thinks, if we don't want them to we will not let them

Nothing to do with intellect just stating a fact,if the Chinese see it as being in there interest to have a naval base in Fiji they will build it and you say you won,t let them do it well what are you going to do about it?,go to war with China.

 

[riksavage]

Nothing to do with intellect just stating a fact,if the Chinese see it as being in there interest to have a naval base in Fiji they will build it and you say you won,t let them do it well what are you going to do about it?,go to war with China.

China will continue to expand it's influence through direct loans and/or commercial projects the same way it expanded it's influence exponentially across Africa by building roads, power stations and railways. 10 years ago it was rare to see Chinese nationals in East Africa, today they are everywhere, same goes for Iraq and Yemen. All Iraq's telecommunications fiber-optic cable was laid by the Chinese prior to the GWII. Fiji simply represents another tick in the expansion box, and I suspect the incumbent military leader won't object to his offshore bank account growing in stature. The only time the Chinese will listen to Aus is if they threaten to suspend iron ore or natural gas sales.

Countries are starting to wake up to China's stealth empire building. The one irony in all this is the growing relationship between Vietnam and the US. The Vietnamese and Chinese have a historical mistrust of one another, which came to ahead in 79 after the Vietnamese toppled Pol Pot. Vietnam benefits from an excellent military infrastructure thanks to the US/Russian legacy. I suspect you will start to see more and more bilateral exchanges between the US and Vietnamese military, Can Ram bay will once again see the stars and bars on a regular basis and maybe even a semipermanent presence under the guise of a SAR facility. China branded Vietnam the "Cuba of the East" after the country improved ties with Russia, the country will go spare if the US start to improve relations to a point where they can establish a more formal military relationship.

 

[steve33]

China will continue to expand it's influence through direct loans and/or commercial projects the same way it expanded it's influence exponentially across Africa by building roads, power stations and railways. 10 years ago it was rare to see Chinese nationals in East Africa, today they are everywhere, same goes for Iraq and Yemen. All Iraq's telecommunications fiber-optic cable was laid by the Chinese prior to the GWII. Fiji simply represents another tick in the expansion box, and I suspect the incumbent military leader won't object to his offshore bank account growing in stature. The only time the Chinese will listen to Aus is if they threaten to suspend iron ore or natural gas sales.

Countries are starting to wake up to China's stealth empire building. The one irony in all this is the growing relationship between Vietnam and the US. The Vietnamese and Chinese have a historical mistrust of one another, which came to ahead in 79 after the Vietnamese toppled Pol Pot. Vietnam benefits from an excellent military infrastructure thanks to the US/Russian legacy. I suspect you will start to see more and more bilateral exchanges between the US and Vietnamese military, Can Ram bay will once again see the stars and bars on a regular basis and maybe even a semipermanent presence under the guise of a SAR facility. China branded Vietnam the "Cuba of the East" after the country improved ties with Russia, the country will go spare if the US start to improve relations to a point where they can establish a more formal military relationship.

Yeah i read an article the other day about how alot of countries in south east asia are starting to look hard at China and it said the Vietnamese were moving towards the U.S and i agree with you about the Irony.

The article if i remember correctly was about the Chinese claiming the whole south China sea and they got rebuffed by Hillory clinton.

 

[t68]

Countries are starting to wake up to China's stealth empire building. The one irony in all this is the growing relationship between Vietnam and the US. The Vietnamese and Chinese have a historical mistrust of one another, which came to ahead in 79 after the Vietnamese toppled Pol Pot. Vietnam benefits from an excellent military infrastructure thanks to the US/Russian legacy. I suspect you will start to see more and more bilateral exchanges between the US and Vietnamese military, Can Ram bay will once again see the stars and bars on a regular basis and maybe even a semipermanent presence under the guise of a SAR facility. China branded Vietnam the "Cuba of the East" after the country improved ties with Russia, the country will go spare if the US start to improve relations to a point where they can establish a more formal military relationship.

I guess after thirty five years the wounds are starting to heal.I take it with the collapse of the old Soviet Union the Vietnamese are not getting much aid as they were before.
It would be ironic after all the Americans did build it.

The only time the Chinese will listen to Aus is if they threaten to suspend iron ore or natural gas sales.

Reminisce of Japan/United States pre 41 cutting off there oil and resource made life difficult, but another time different thinking.Cannot see oz going down that track we sold iron to them right up to 41 and it got returned in part.

 

[Sampanviking]

I guess after thirty five years the wounds are starting to heal.I take it with the collapse of the old Soviet Union the Vietnamese are not getting much aid as they were before.
It would be ironic after all the Americans did build it.



Reminisce of Japan/United States pre 41 cutting off there oil and resource made life difficult, but another time different thinking.Cannot see oz going down that track we sold iron to them right up to 41 and it got returned in part.

I think making comparisons between China 2010 and Japan pre 41 is a bit of a strawman as the PRC has not made any imperial moves of any sort against it neighbours and has made no signs of so doing.

The Chinese Australian trade does raise two points however.

1) The idea of a Chinese military facility at Fiji is not totally far fetched considering the major economic interest has in supply from Australia.

2) Australia needs to be a bit more realistic about its own national interest and consider where its current prosperity is coming from and why it has avoided the worst of the global downturn. At the end of the day China could more easily replace Australian supply than Australia could find a new customer with Chinese sized demand and the deep pockets of Chinese companies and Banks for Inward Investment in Australian Corporations.