Attack on Iran, Possible!!

[eaf-f16]

That's nice, but that doesn't let them block the Persian Gulf. It just lets them do massive damage to the USN. Also, to consider, the Red Team had the C3 assets, training, and situational understanding that Iran is far from having.

No.

If they start inflicting massive damage on the USN like you said they would be able to block the Persian Gulf. And Iran probably has better C3 assets, training and situational understanding seeing as how they spent whole lot more money and time than USMC trying to develop asymmetric tactics specifically made to exploit the weaknesses of the US.

The commander of the IRGC, Mohammad Ali Jaafari, is constantly being painted as this genius of asymetric warfare.

Like I said they don't need to hit every ship coming through Hormuz to disrupt shipping and make oil prices hit the roof (and slow down already slow Western economies).

The Iranians are starting to remind me of Saddam at the peak of his sabre rattling days,

And this is probably makes you incapable of making a coherent assessment of Iran's capabilities. You are under the impression that they are a carbon-copy of Saddam's Iraq.

I'm still waiting for the 'mother of all battles' comments to spew forth from the Revolutionary Guard Command.

Wait in vain. The Iranians don't even believe that the US is going to attack them.Their President told the world a few days ago that their will be no war against Iran.

Their pretty confident in their capability of inflicting pain on the US elsewhere.

Remember the Iranians couldn't do in eight years what the US and its Allies did in six-weeks

I have to laugh at this statement right here.

The very fact that won against an adversary that had no qualms about using WMD's, had massive military and political support from Western countries and had armed forces technologically superior to them while they were under heavy sanctions and political isolation should be a testament to Iran's ability to win wars while at a heavy disadvantage if anything.

I accept they can send wave after wave of suicide speedboats and fire salvos of Silkworms against tankers / naval assets, but this will not cause their adversaries to cease and run for cover, it will simply result in a disproportionate amount of destruction to Iranian military and economic targets in response. A conflict at this time would be very, very messy, but I would bet my life savings on who would win.

You seem to be forgetting that the US still has to take things like world opinion and political support from other nations in to consideration when waging a war against Iran. Especially after the Iraq war.

A military strike against Iran is highly disfavored by Western European nations. Eastern nations (not counting the GCC) think it shouldn't even be considered at all.

And this is not because they love Iran and hate the US, it's because the world is aware of Iran's capability of of reversing whatever security gains were made in Iraq (which is a very unpopular war to begin with) and the coming US administration may not be willing to stay in Iraq and stabilize it after a war with Iran.

Excluding the US and Israel, most countries in this world want to see a stable Middle East even if it means that some ME countries remain hostile towards the US.

If the US strikes governmental and economic targets this will not only be the US (unnecessarily) destabilizing Iran, but also Iraq and the region as a whole.

Moreover, Iran has just set a timetable for nuclear negotiations with EU. Striking Iran while negotiations are underway will make it look like a repeat of the Iraq war except without the invasion and probably result in political damage for the US.

 

[riksavage]

Please, oh please qualify your comments reference Iran’s ‘C3' capabilities with facts not subjective opinion? Please also provide evidence of their ability at both the strategic and tactical level to inflict debilitating material losses on both manpower and hardware of either the US and Israel outside low-level terrorist activity.

Their war against Iraq was an unmitigated disaster; casualties sustained over the eight year WWI style conflict demonstrated a poor grasp of all arms warfare and a total disregard for human life. Unfortunately modern weapons will inflict unprecedented losses if they chose to throw their goose-stepping revolutionary guards against a modern well-equipped adversary in the same way as they did against Iraq. Other than adopting a Hamas style asymmetrical warfare approach they will end up being totally humiliated in the eyes of the Arab world.

You are living in a fantasy land mate!

 

[Chrom]

Their war against Iraq was an unmitigated disaster; casualties sustained over the eight year WWI style conflict demonstrated a poor grasp of all arms warfare and a total disregard for human life.

High causalities, obviously, have nothing to do with "total disregard for human life." Just common western myth. High causalities always happened in heavy, not-one sided war.

As for "poor understanding"... Somewhat true, just remember - both Iran and Iraq are relative small, poor countries. They fight with the tools and means they have at they disposal.

Unfortunately modern weapons will inflict unprecedented losses if they chose to throw their goose-stepping revolutionary guards against a modern well-equipped adversary in the same way as they did against Iraq. Other than adopting a Hamas style asymmetrical warfare approach they will end up being totally humiliated in the eyes of the Arab world.

You are living in a fantasy land mate!

Again, high causalities have nothing to do with modern weapon. WW1 style weapon inflicted even more causalities - especially unwanted collateral.

And of course, Iran wouldnt be able to stand up against USA in direct fight. No, this will not hurt they image in the eyes of Arab world, may be rather contrary - as everyone understand the odds.

Iran losing against Israel alone, however, might hurt Iran image.

 

[eaf-f16]

Please, oh please qualify your comments reference Iran’s ‘C3' capabilities with facts not subjective opinion?

Iran spent a whole lot more than just $250 million (the amount US military spent to stage the whole of MC02) on their military every year. Clearly they would be better prepared for a US attack than the Red Force.

The Red Force had to resort to motorbikes to send messages back forth because the US Navy took out their C3 capabilities.

Hezbollah had an Iranian-setup communications network that survived Israeli jamming and bombing.

Please also provide evidence of their ability at both the strategic and tactical level to inflict debilitating material losses on both manpower and hardware of either the US and Israel outside low-level terrorist activity.

Their war against Iraq was an unmitigated disaster; casualties sustained over the eight year WWI style conflict demonstrated a poor grasp of all arms warfare and a total disregard for human life. Unfortunately modern weapons will inflict unprecedented losses if they chose to throw their goose-stepping revolutionary guards against a modern well-equipped adversary in the same way as they did against Iraq. Other than adopting a Hamas style asymmetrical warfare approach they will end up being totally humiliated in the eyes of the Arab world.

You are living in a fantasy land mate!

There are more factors to this than just the US' capability to bomb Iran (and they can bomb Iran) which I pointed out in my post.

Also I like how you didn't respond to my post and just gave a half-assed response loaded with BS.

 

[ROCK45]

Hi eaf-16

eaf-f16
Hezbollah had an Iranian-setup communications network that survived Israeli jamming and bombing.

I think you’re giving the Hezbollah more credit than they deserve if they weren’t hiding in and around innocent citizens the Israeli’s would bomb them into the Stone Age. The Hezbollah wouldn’t have been able to hold out as long as they did if innocent people weren’t around. Only a small percent of Israel’s military might was even brought to bear in that type of situation. Israel and/or the US going after reactors and other facilities, military commutation hubs, radar’s, wouldn’t have these restrictions in a sense. I have no doubt that Iran would get weapons out bound and some would hit because of the sheer numbers at first. It would also be a different situation overall with US weapons being shot inbound then I say against Iraq for example. I’m sure you could read between the lines a little and see it would be a little more intense or at least I can. Iran’s nuclear facilities aren’t rumored there very much real and so is the terrorist support coming from Iran so its different right from the get goes. After Iran’s command and controlled is craved up a little and becomes less effective and goes downhill quickly. After a few hours their capabilities to strike back goes down big time not completely don’t get me wrong not every weapon can be destroyed. Iran has no air force to speak of nor a modern SAM system so once weapons or other assets are spotted they become targets, its 2008 targets can be destroyed. Remember the US and/or Israel doesn’t have to take over the country it only has to destroy the nuclear facilities and take out Iran’s big guns sort to speak.
I can only assume the situation after such an attack or short shooting war would be very bad and could go in many directions. And I agree with you there are more factors to this than just the US' capability to bomb Iran.

No one wants Iran's extremist to even have a change on getting their hands on such weapons period. My personnel take on this is I wish nobody sold them the reactor in the first place but I guess that's another debate in itself.

 

[eckherl]

Can the U.S or Israel rest assured that they can take out all of Irans medium and long range tactical missiles during the initial phase of the attack, more than likely no, this alone with the possibility of Iran having the capability to counter attack with these missiles against targets inside of Israel and Iraq causing massive casualties would make this type of operation way to risky, it is not going to happen. The U.S, along time ago came to grips with Iran having nuke capability, this was pointed out when we decided to place a defense shield inside of Europe.

 

[ROCK45]

grips

Hi eckherl
I would have thought the US would have been able to target more of their medium and long range tactical missiles during the initial phase of the attack. I hope more interesting things are being worked on behind the scenes. Couldn't bad weapons be attached to a tactical missiles? So you don't feel Israel going to try and take out the reactors either? PM

 

[eckherl]

Hi eckherl
I would have thought the US would have been able to target more of their medium and long range tactical missiles during the initial phase of the attack. I hope more interesting things are being worked on behind the scenes. Couldn't bad weapons be attached to a tactical missiles? So you don't feel Israel going to try and take out the reactors either? PM

Sure we can more than likely target and destroy the majority of them, but I do not think that we can get all of them, these are not the Scuds that Iraq used during the GW 2, they are hell of alot more bigger in the bang department, match this up with the tightly packed cities in Israel and Iraq and let your imagination run wild. The U.S at this time has the priority of getting Iraq on its feet again, we will not jeapordize this. In the end this will be more of a issue that the Europeans along with Russia will have to deal with, it will more than likely start a major WMD program in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. All that is going on at the moment is typical show boating, the Iranians are not stupid, they pretty much have given the United Nations a big one finger salute knowing that they do not have the guts to do anything about this.

Israel will not attempt this without us giving them support, we more than likely have already told them that we are not going to help them.

 

[stigmata]

I will have to ask this: Why is Iran hostile to Israel ? I've heard rumors they dont want that state to exist to begin with, but only rumors.
Or is it a reaction to ISrael ? what is the truth here ?
some background please

 

[Feanor]

No.

If they start inflicting massive damage on the USN like you said they would be able to block the Persian Gulf. And Iran probably has better C3 assets, training and situational understanding seeing as how they spent whole lot more money and time than USMC trying to develop asymmetric tactics specifically made to exploit the weaknesses of the US.

The commander of the IRGC, Mohammad Ali Jaafari, is constantly being painted as this genius of asymetric warfare.

Like I said they don't need to hit every ship coming through Hormuz to disrupt shipping and make oil prices hit the roof (and slow down already slow Western economies).

Again this assumes they have the capabilities. You have yet to demonstrate that. Suicide speedboats are about the equivalent of piloted anti-ship missiles, except slower and larger. Small coastal patrol vessels will be sitting ducks for USAF strikes.

And this is not because they love Iran and hate the US, it's because the world is aware of Iran's capability of of reversing whatever security gains were made in Iraq (which is a very unpopular war to begin with) and the coming US administration may not be willing to stay in Iraq and stabilize it after a war with Iran.

No my friend, with the east it means exactly that. They don't like U.S. influence and see Iran as a good proxy to use for regional counter-balance.

If the US strikes governmental and economic targets this will not only be the US (unnecessarily) destabilizing Iran, but also Iraq and the region as a whole.

Moreover, Iran has just set a timetable for nuclear negotiations with EU. Striking Iran while negotiations are underway will make it look like a repeat of the Iraq war except without the invasion and probably result in political damage for the US.

This needs further substantiation. The U.S. won't strike governmental and economic targets, it will strike military targets and nuclear facilities. I cut out large sections of your post because they contained little relevant parts.

 

[eaf-f16]

Again this assumes they have the capabilities. You have yet to demonstrate that. Suicide speedboats are about the equivalent of piloted anti-ship missiles, except slower and larger. Small coastal patrol vessels will be sitting ducks for USAF strikes.

Why is it right to assume that they don't have the capability?

Please, elaborate. I seriously want to know why you think so.

Also, didn't they come within 200 meters of USN ships with speedboats before?

No my friend, with the east it means exactly that. They don't like U.S. influence and see Iran as a good proxy to use for regional counter-balance.

Every economic, energy, military or political deal/agreement you see being made between Russia and Iran is made because Russia wants to buy influence with Iran (even if temporary) because it allows it to play a major/larger role in resolving the nuclear issue. Not because it views Iran as regional counter-balance to US influence.

Russia may use this "larger role" to pressure the West into making some concessions to it in other issues more important to Russia.

I can't comment on China's relations with Iran. But I suspect the China has relatively close relations with Iran for other reasons more important to it than just as "a regional counter-balance" to US influence. Energy may be one of them.

This needs further substantiation. The U.S. won't strike governmental and economic targets, it will strike military targets and nuclear facilities.

"riksavage" is the one who said that the US would strike economic targets. I was merely explaining to him why the US wouldn't (or rather shouldn't) strike economic targets.

I cut out large sections of your post because they contained little relevant parts.

You cut out large portions of my post because the majority of it was in response to riksavage's posts not to yours.

My post was relevant to the issue.

 

[Chrom]

I will have to ask this: Why is Iran hostile to Israel ? I've heard rumors they dont want that state to exist to begin with, but only rumors.
Or is it a reaction to ISrael ? what is the truth here ?
some background please

For historical reasons all Middle East states are hostile to Israel. Past and current Israel (and USA) politic dont help to settle anger either.

On grand scale, Iran hostility to Israel is about as usual thing in international relations as it gets. It is perfectly normal. All countries in the world feeling hostility to one country or another.

Currently, there is no reason to believe Iran is ruled by maniacs obsessed with destroying Israel not matter what and at any cost.

 

[ROCK45]

Iran

Chrom
On grand scale, Iran hostility to Israel is about as usual thing in international relations as it gets. It is perfectly normal. All countries in the world feeling hostility to one country or another.

Currently, there is no reason to believe Iran is ruled by maniacs obsessed with destroying Israel not matter what and at any cost.

Are you kidding!


Chrom I don't agree with you Iran's has threaten Israel repeatedly. I just did a simple Google search and came up with a few. It's pretty safe to say they hate Israel and one day were all hear some Iranian President say "Iran had nothing to do with the attack nor does it approve of such things", right.


Iranian President Says Israel Will Disappear, Threatens Its Allies
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,222660,00.html

Iran issues 'ultimatum' to Israel's allies
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15343184/

Iran Leader: Israel Will Be Annihilated
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8GVSUC0H&show_article=1

stigmata - Google this topic there's tons of stuff on this.

 

[Chrom]

Are you kidding!


Chrom I don't agree with you Iran's has threaten Israel repeatedly. I just did a simple Google search and came up with a few. It's pretty safe to say they hate Israel and one day were all hear some Iranian President say "Iran had nothing to do with the attack nor does it approve of such things", right.


this.

Search google for Bush phrases. You'll find like 100 more of them with threating various countries, including threating them with nuclear weapon. And i dont even mention various american politicians, who repeatedly whisper all kind of nonsense threats to all kind of countries.

As i said, Iran behave perfectly normal. It shows nothing exceptional.

The difference however, what Bush CAN fulfill his mad threats, and Iran cant. Guess who is bigger threat in the eyes of majority peoples on the Earth?

 

[ROCK45]

Iran

Well Chrom stigmata didn't ask about the US or Bush threats, he asked about Iran threatening Israel. And you answered by saying

On grand scale, Iran hostility to Israel is about as usual thing in international relations as it gets. It is perfectly normal. All countries in the world feeling hostility to one country or another.

Pointing him to the Google searches I posted might help him find an answer to his question. The guess who's a bigger threat to majority peoples on the Earth comment well what can I say the cold war is over.

 

[Chrom]

Well Chrom stigmata didn't ask about the US or Bush threats, he asked about Iran threatening Israel. And you answered by saying

Pointing him to the Google searches I posted might help him find an answer to his question. The guess who's a bigger threat to majority peoples on the Earth comment well what can I say the cold war is over.

Again, i can quote very similar Israel speeches toward Iran, Syria, etc. As i said, that means Iran is just another country like any other - not terroristic more than any other country, not warlike more than any other country. Yes, it is hostile to Israel. So what? Not a big deal...

This might be important for Israel or US, but for neutral observer Iranian behavior is nothing to take attention.

What i try to imply - Iran is certainly a threat to Israel, just like Israel is a threat to Iran. But this kind of threat is perfectly in order in current international relations, Iranian government have all rights to behave so, and we shouldnt blame Iran (and its supporters) for that and picture them as something more "evil" than anyone else.


As for "most peoples on the Earth".. funny, but there were actually a statistical research (public opinion poll) recently on that matter . As i said, USA come on top... Even in West European countries most peoples places US as top threat to peace on the planet.

 

[eaf-f16]

Ahmedinjad isn't top dog (doesn't decide foreign policy) in Iran so don't point to him when you want to say Iran is run by loons (and it isn't).

Moreover, Bush says things like "Crusade" and "Jesus told me to bomb Iraq and Afghanistan". And unlike Ahmadinjad, he is top dog in the US. The US is capable of doing much more damage to the world (as we saw in Iraq) than Iran can ever hope to do.

I'm not even going to mention the former terrorist who would later go on to become Israel's Prime Minister (twice!) and say such great things like "Neither Jewish ethics nor Jewish tradition can disqualify terrorism as a means of combat. "

 

[stigmata]

Thank you all.
I've been reading, and i get the impression that it is about holy Jerusalem.
Muslems feel insulted that 1000 years after Saladin re-took it, -it is once more in cristian hands.
For me as a non-believer in anything, it is messed up beyound recognition that cristians and muslems still going on with this.
One thing become clear tho: Iran would never ever nuke Jerusalem.
Am i right in my assumption ?

 

[Chrom]

Thank you all.

One thing become clear tho: Iran would never ever nuke Jerusalem.
Am i right in my assumption ?

Probably yes, but this doesnt matter either. Israel is not Jerusalem alone, it is a bit larger. So there are plenty of targets to nuke for Iran in Israel...

 

[ghanz]

You are right with this assumption, Iran doesn't want to nuke Jerusalem nor it is against Jews. Iran hates Israel polices and their treatment towards Palestine. Iran has a minority population of Jews and if it was against them,,they would be dead by now. In my view every country has the right to protect itself. If Israel can show their readiness by conducting large scale excersise,then Iran too has the right to fire missiles. This is the time for European union to step in, and take charge, cause clearly the American only care about Israel.

my opinion!