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I am quite curious about the extent of the "shrinkage" you're referring to (?) - for example a given missile can hardly be considered a "fire and forget" system if it still has to be semi-actively guided to within <5nm of the target in order to achieve a kill(??). That final distance is going to represent a tiny fraction of the weapon's overall travel time for a Mach 4+ BVR weapon. I can see this having significant operational implications in the A-A arena, especially when considering VLO 5th gen platforms pitted against 4-4.5 gen non-VLO opponents.
Granted, making an accurate assessment of the implications of the above hinges upon radar performance and RCS data that is not publically available, but I find it astonishing that it never seems to get mentioned in the public domain (particularly in relation to the F35). Just another very pivotal place in which VLO can disrupt the enemy kill chain I suppose.
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Late reply but fwiw let's put some numbers to this... per norman friedman's "world naval weapon systems", the R-27R (semi-active seeker) can lock-on to a 3 m^2 target at 25 km, while the R-27AE (active seeker) can achieve lock on a 5 m^2 target at 20 km...
Now per the following article:
www.strategypage.com/htmw/htairfo/articles/20051125.aspx (can't post links yet so have to write them out this way)
*, the F-35 is claimed to have an rcs equivalent to that of a golf ball sized metal sphere... thus a ~43 mm diameter metal sphere illuminated by a 3 cm wavelength (ie. x-band) incident RF wave would have an rcs of approx. ~0.0014 m^2 (see nasa doc "haystack & hax radar measurements of orbital debris" for approximations of object rcs w/ primary dimensions w/in the mie/resonance region)... this is pretty much in line w/ the claimed -30 dBsm (ie. 0.001 m^2) cited in this article:
www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/stealth-aircraft-rcs.htm ...
So given the above approx., rcs for an F-35, this would mean the R-27R (semi-active) terminal lock-on range would effectively now just be ~3.4 km (due to the fourth-root relationship of rcs to range)... similarly the R-27AE (active) terminal lock range would now be ~2.4 km... quite dramatic drops in terminal lock-on range showing the need for a much extended midcourse guidance phase (ins+uplink presumably)...
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As for why the prevalence of rf active or semi-active terminal homing vs. IR despite of the advances in rcs reduction, perhaps the effects of atmospheric wave propagation might be a factor...
Taking a look at a sample optical/IR transmittance graph (see:
www.upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e9/Atmospheric.transmittance.IR.jpg), and taking the optimistic value of an 80% transmittance over the ~1.8 km range, this results in an attenuation of approx. -0.54 dB per km for wavelengths w/in the permissive IR bands... this means a loss of radiated power from the IR source of ~12 % per km...
Now looking at the attenuation at RF wavelengths (see:
www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a011642.pdf , p. 15 fig. 2) we can see that at x-band the attenuation is under -0.02 dB per km, or approx. a loss in radiated RF power of ~0.5 % per km...
Hence from the above, IR radiated losses are significantly higher over a given range as compared to RF radiated losses, and these are for clear weather effects...
Looking at the attenuation for clouds and rain show more pronounced losses for IR vs. RF wavelengths (see previous cited pdf, fig. S1 and S2): ie. fair weather cumulus cloud cover attenuation for IR at -90 dB/km, while for RF it is -0.05 to -0.1 dB/km... and for light rain (~5 mm/hr) IR attenuation is at -3 dB/km, whilst RF loss is at -0.1 dB/km...
Hence significantly greater losses for IR as compared to RF radiation in inclement weather...
So given the above for atmospheric propagation losses for IR vs. RF radiation, perhaps this is why we still see quite a number of applications utilizing RF homing terminal seekers in spite of the target rcs reductions achieved...
Mod Edit. Links added for ease of access.