Afghanistan War

[Sandhi Yudha]

The Taliban has won the war, so now they have time to spread freedom, peace and civilization. A good moment to start a holy war against those evil white-western infidelic devices called television!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1476157082952945670

The only problem is that the people of Afghanistan will soon not be able anymore to watch those wonderful Taliban-propaganda programs.

 

[ngatimozart]

The Taliban has won the war, so now they have time to spread freedom, peace and civilization. A good moment to start a holy war against those evil white-western infidelic devices called television!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1476157082952945670

The only problem is that the people of Afghanistan will soon not be able anymore to watch those wonderful Taliban-propaganda programs.

The gods protect us from religious nutters and fundamentalists.

 

[Stampede]

The Taliban has won the war, so now they have time to spread freedom, peace and civilization. A good moment to start a holy war against those evil white-western infidelic devices called television!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1476157082952945670

The only problem is that the people of Afghanistan will soon not be able anymore to watch those wonderful Taliban-propaganda programs.

Trust they do something with the E waste!!!!!

In 2021 you would think they had enough smarts not to go down this path again.

Hope its an isolated event.


Regards S

 

[John Fedup]

Trust they do something with the E waste!!!!!

In 2021 you would think they had enough smarts not to go down this path again.

Hope its an isolated event.


Regards S

I assume the Taliban will seek help from their new friend to lock down/control the Internet as they are the world’s expert for this.

 

[OPSSG]

1. US Secretary of State Antony John Blinken has said that they are considering options to inject more money into the Afghan economy. The US Secretary of State made the remarks at a news conference on the last day of 2021. The US had recently released about US$280 million of Afghanistan’s frozen assets.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1478693006727278596

2. “We are desperately looking for ways to bring more liquidity into the Afghan economy to put more money into people’s pockets,” said Antony Blinken and the US will do this in cooperation with its partners in a way that does not directly benefit the Taliban. The remarks come as the country’s banking system is facing a liquidity crisis following recent changes and severe economic problems, and thousands of people are facing starvation.

3. In 2018, Afghanistan had a nationwide average of only 4.6 medical doctors, nurses, and midwives per 10,000 people, far below the WHO threshold of 23 per 10,000 people. Since the collapse of the former Afghan government, this figure is most likely even lower in 2022 given the inability to pay health-care workers’ salaries, many individuals’ reluctance to work given uncertainty over the security conditions in the country, or health-care workers having fled the country.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1478032624908124163

4. In Herat, the Taliban authorities have asked clothing shops to behead all “female mannequins.”

 

[STURM]

As I pointed out here some time ago; whilst the Pakistanis were jubilant that the Talibs finally achieved victory there were also a lot of worries given that there is a large Pashtun population in Pakistan [larger than the population in Afghanistan]; there are longstanding unresolved issues along the 'Durand Line' and that despite common misconception the Afghan Taliban haven't always been the compliant and cooperative Pakistani puppets many assumed them to have been [hence the 'you can rent an Afghan but never own him' cliche'].

Now that there is relative peace and there are engaged with various foreign governments [which have not recognised the Taliban government but nonetheless has dealings with it]; the Afghan Talibs are also less dependent on the Pakistanis.

Is a rift between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban imminent?

Tensions over border demarcation and TTP violence may damage relations between Islamabad and Kabul.

www.aljazeera.com

''The issue of the Durand Line is still an unresolved one, while the construction of fencing itself creates rifts within a nation spread across both sides of the border. It amounts to dividing a nation,” Afghan Information Minister and Chief Spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said in an interview for a Pashto-language YouTube channel, referring to the Pashtun community, the biggest ethnic group in Afghanistan and the second-biggest one in Pakistan. ''

''Another source of tensions between Kabul and Islamabad has been the TTP. The armed group fought alongside the Afghan Taliban against the US and its allies for years and the two have a strong bond. When the Taliban took power on August 15, they set free hundreds of TTP men, including some prominent leaders, incarcerated in Afghan jails. Much of the TTP leadership is based in Afghanistan and many members, according to Afghan and Pakistanis journalistic sources, are receiving support. ''

 

[ngatimozart]

Pakistan might end up having two different wars on two different fronts against two different enemies, and that will create a huge dilemma for the Pakistan military and ISI, who are the effective rulers of the country. They've really annoyed the US who may refuse to help them and have become quite friendly with India anyway, and the Russians won't be interested Iran may want to interfere but at he same time it may not want to annoy the PRC. The Saudis have a financial interest and a nuclear weapons interest so they will be involved, but to what degree? How far are they willing to go to protect their interests? And that leaves the PRC.

The PRC are very interested in establishing good relations with the Taliban and Afghanistan because that would mean easier and more direct access to Iranian oil, without having to go through a dog leg down through the length of Pakistan, before turning west to Iran. Financially and time wise that would be a significant construction cost saving. There are also problems in Gwadar with the port construction and the local population that have the potential of affecting the port's ability to attract investment and customers. The CCP / PRC will not be happy especially considering that they will be receiving 91% of the port's revenue. No wonder the locals are upset - that and the security that they have to suffer.

 

[swerve]

Moving oil from Iran to China through Afghanistan is possible, but would be very costly. There's only one possible route & it's challenging. It goes over high passes & there's a distinct lack of infrastructure in place.

The Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline route would be much easier & cheaper. There are already pipelines from Iran's oilfields in the south to the Caspian, & gas pipelines which run from the same locations in the north to Turkmenistan where they connect to pipelines to China.

The only advantage to a route through Afghanistan is political: it would be further away from Russia & wouldn't run through a former Soviet republic.

Map of Iran's pipelines

 

[STURM]

Pakistan might end up having two different wars on two different fronts against two different enemies

With regards to Afghanistan I doubt it will happen. Bilateral relations being badly hit and effected yes but outright war no. This is something both sides will try their best to avoid. The Taliban still needs Pakistan for economic reasons and for the diplomatic and other assistance it enables. On their part the Pakistani leadership will not want trouble with its own Pashtun population and will be aware that war with Afghanistan would lead to detrimental long term consequences. There is also the China factor; it will never allow things to reach that stage.

They've really annoyed the US who may refuse to help them

I've long been critical of the role Pakistan has played with regards to Afghanistan but to be fair Pakistan it did not have the option of adopting a policy of totally cooperating with the Americans and doing all that was demanded of it.

Some of what the Americans demanded would have suited American interests but would have been highly damaging to Pakistan. American policy was clear cut; defeat the Taliban and ensure a friendly democratic government which could survive stayed in power in Kabul. The Pakistanis had to worry about India [almost everything it did in Afghanistan was driven by the Indian factor] ; it had to worry about things in Afghanistan spilling over into Pakistan; had it's own internal issues [some of its own doing] to be worry about with the Pakistani Taliban and other groups and had to ensure that the Taliban and not anyone else was in control of the country.

Moving oil from Iran to China through Afghanistan is possible, but would be very costly. There's only one possible route & it's challenging. It goes over high passes & there's a distinct lack of infrastructure in place.

There's also the security aspect. That long pipeline would be vulnerable to disruption and the Taliban would be hard pressed to ensure security.

 

[ngatimozart]

If the Pakistani Pashtun decide to push for political amalgamation with their Afghan brethren, Islamabad will have a significant problem on its hands. It cannot adequately control the tribal areas in its northwest now as it is.

 

[STURM]

The good news for Pakistan and Afghanistan is that Pashtuns - on either side of the border - have ever expressed an interest in doing so. The main reason is despite seeing themselves as Pashtun first; they also identify strongly with their respective countries. Another reason is that the P:ashtun population on both sides of the border comprise various sub tribes/groups.

Also; despite all the talk about Afghanistan not being a nation per see but an amalgamation of tribes/different ethnic groups; there has never been an occasion in which any single tribe/different ethnic group has spoken of the need to break away and for a union with their co ethnics across the border; whether the Uzbeks, Tajiks or Turkmans.

 

[John Fedup]

If this article is more or less correct, it would appear Biden’s State Department doesn’t understand listening, rather important one would think. There were many other factors at play of course but assuming the military did raise the alarm, the embassy team appears to deserve considerable blame for the C-F.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/02/08/afghanistan-evacuation-investigation/

 

[STURM]

Granted, the U.S. for as not officially recognise the Taliban government and is far from pleased that the Talibs are in power but it should be taking steps to ensure ties with ordinary Afghans are maintained, not severed.

Why cancellation of Fulbright Program in Afghanistan matters

After the US’s catastrophic exit from Afghanistan, the programme should have been cherished, not abandoned.

www.aljazeera.com

''Many have been puzzled by the policy choices of the Biden administration vis-à-vis Afghanistan since the United States’ disastrous withdrawal from the country last August. It is not clear whether these choices are aimed at appeasing domestic audiences or collectively punishing a people for the unsuccessful ending of a long and costly war. Either way, they are causing immense suffering to Afghans who have already suffered enough.''

''Fulbright, America’s flagship educational exchange programme with the stated aim of “building bridges between the US and other countries”, provides Afghan graduate students with the opportunity to obtain a fully-funded masters degree in the US.
On January 28, 140 Afghan semifinalists of the programme – who all passed a rigorous review process based on academic excellence, leadership skills, work experience, command of English, and strength of study/research objectives to reach this level – received an email that perhaps changed their lives forever. It read: “Due to significant barriers impeding our ability to provide a safe exchange experience, the selection process for the Fulbright Foreign Student Program in Afghanistan for the 2022-23 academic year will not move forward.”

''Across the country, semifinalists, who had sacrificed so much and worked so hard to be considered for the life-changing opportunity, were left devastated.

“I begged my relatives to pay for my TOEFL test [Test of English as a Foreign Language, passing of which is a prerequisite to admission into the Fulbright Program] and took it when Kandahar was in the middle of intense war,” a semifinalist named Sayed Abdul Rahim Afghan tweeted. The night before the test, I couldn’t sleep because of the sounds of incessant gunfire and explosions. And this is the reply we get after one year.”

''But this does not have to be the US’s legacy in Afghanistan. It is not too late to change course, and do the right thing. Reviving the Fulbright scholarship programme for Afghans could be a small first step towards correcting the US’s recent missteps in Afghanistan. It would not only show the semi-finalists that their hard work was not for nothing, but also signal to all Afghans that the US is still willing to build''

 

[OPSSG]

Bamyan attempts to breakaway

1. As is the tradition, whenever Kabul tries to impose control, there is a strong tendency for certain provinces, like Bamyan, to breakaway. Mawlawi Mehdi Mujahid, an influential Hazara member of the Taliban, has broken away with the Taliban after he was fired as head of intelligence of Bamyan. He says 10 million Hazaras are sidelined and disenfranchised from political space by Taliban.

2. Taliban’s rift with Mowlawi Mahdi is over the proceeds of coal mines in Balkhab. There has been a hike in demands for coal in Pakistan after the energy prices went up.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1539730242130026506

3. The Taliban dispatching a big force against Mawli Mehdi. This force is heading from Mazari-E Sharif. Currently, the Taliban forces being sent are in Kishanday refuelling, and heading to Dar-E Soaaf. According to reports, Mawli Mehdi destroying roads with excavators to prevent Taliban convoys.

4. The Taliban have taken control of a strategic Qoam pass; but Taliban casualties and fatalities are reported in this fighting. Names of at least 36 civilians murdered by Taliban forces in Balkhab was shared with Bilal (posting on Twitter) by residents from Sari Pul. Victims include 90year old Haji Haidari Hoshi,Sayed Azim son of Sayed Anwar 82 years old from Akhshar. 77year old lady Bibi Nazaka wife of Haji Hussian from Koshkak.

5. Previously, Singapore deployed medical, construction & engineering teams to Bamiyan province. Along with NZDF, this was part of the SAF's small contribution to the multinational efforts in Afghanistan until 22 Jun 2013. I continue to wish the people of Bamiyan well, in this round fighting.

6. The Taliban’s atrocities in Afghanistan continue to worsen. I am very concerned that the Taliban continues to deny that there are displaced people & had blocked the entry of humanitarian aid into the Bamyan region.

 

[swerve]

"10 million Hazaras are sidelined and disenfranchised from political space"

So far so normal. Most of them are Shia, which makes Sunni extremists such as the Taliban hate them.

 

[STURM]

Previously, Singapore deployed medical, construction & engineering teams to Bamiyan province. Along with NZDF, this was part of the SAF's small contribution to the multinational efforts in Afghanistan until 22 Jun 2013.

The Malaysians were also there for a period; based in a camp already occupied by the Kiwis. The contingent comprised mainly medical teams who had a small security detail whenever they were in the field. A Royal Medical Corps Sergeant [he was previously in Bosnia] who was there told me some interesting stories.

Most of them are Shia, which makes Sunni extremists such as the Taliban hate them.

They are seen as heretics; not just by "extremist" elements in the Taliban; which itself is divided into factions but by many other Sunnis as well; as you're well aware.I remember a UAE embassy official here asking me if Shias were actually Muslims.

We have to take note that a large part of why the Taliban managed to win so much ground in the north [an area largely alien to Pashtuns] during their offensive last year was because the unexpected happened; minority groups such as the Hazaras, Uzbeks and Tajiks supported the Taliban. Has this not happened the Talibs would not have gained so much territory in such a short period. Unlike in the past when they started their offensive in the south [their heartland] this time around they started it in the north.

In the long run I can't see how the Hazaras can hold out for long. In the past they could count on government support; now they can't. Iran also kept them supplied [way before 11th September 2001] but I have no idea if this is still the case. It's also worth noting that in 1996 when various groups were fighting for control of Kabul; Hazara gunmen had a reputation for violence against civilians. There are no clean hands in Afghanistan's long wars.

 

[OPSSG]

The Malaysians were also there for a period; based in a camp already occupied by the Kiwis.

7. IIRC, from around 2010 to almost the end of the ISAF mandate, multiple rotations of Malaysian Medical Teams (MMTs) were sent to provide medical, dental and healthcare services to the Afghan civilian population in Bamiyan. MMTs were pretty hard core, deploying large 40 person teams.

8. Whereas since 2007, Singapore’s teams in Bamyan did their peace support work through contractors, with more deployed in summer — typically 6 man summer deployment teams — they were not always there in winter. The SAF construction engineering team, which commences operations while there serve as part of the NZ Provincial Reconstruction Team for a duration of six months, per tour.

The contingent comprised mainly medical teams who had a small security detail whenever they were in the field. A Royal Medical Corps Sergeant [he was previously in Bosnia] who was there told me some interesting stories.

9. MMTs did good work in Bamyan and really made a difference.

10. Whereas Singapore’s prior assistance efforts in Afghanistan was split into 3 provinces — with the surgical (8 personnel), UAV (52 personnel), WLR radar (21 personnel), and other teams sent to Oruzgan and institutional trainers sent to Kabul. More importantly, the SAF's deployment to Afghanistan to support the ISAF included multiple rotations of Imagery Analysis Teams. These teams working for ISAF intel provided imagery interpretation and analysis support for multi-national troops operating in Oruzgan, Afghanistan.

11. As part of its tiny contribution to the fight against ISIS in Iraq from Sep 2016 to 2018, the SAF Imagery Analysis Team was also deployed to Kuwait, along with an intelligence officer. This is because the Defeat-ISIS Coalition found that the multiple rotations of Singapore teams provided "useful intelligence support to identify terrorist infrastructure and facilities, and to avoid targeting civilian areas", said Dr Ng Eng Hen. Beyond the above deployments:

(i) Since Dec 2014, SAF liaison officers have been deployed to the US Central Command Headquarters.​

​

(ii) Since Jan 2015, Intelligence Fusion Officers have been deployed.​

12. Since 2014, the SAF has been part of the Defeat-ISIS Coalition, with multiple rotations of RSAF tankers over a number of years that have contributed to the Defeat-ISIS Coalition's ability to support increased aerial refueling demands in summer. This tanking support helped in the fights for Mosul, Iraq & Raqqah, Syria. The SAF also participated with the deployment in 2018 of the SAF Counter-Terrorism Training Unit.

 

[STURM]

Afghan-Iran border clash: Taliban says one killed

The Afghan Taliban say one of their officers died as the two countries blame each other.

www.bbc.com

Clashes between the Iranians and the Talibs. Relations between both have been complex [if that's the appropriate term]. In the 1990's at a time when the U.S. refused to provide the Northern Alliance with "lethal" aid; weapons deliveries from Iran, Russia and India played a big part in enabling the Northern Alliance to continue resisting the Taliban. Iran also supported the Hazaras in their fight against the Taliban. In 1996, Iran came close to a border invasion following the massacre of Iranian consulate staff by Talibs.

Years later; like Russia; Iran provided some assistance to the Taliban to ensure that IS did not get the upper hand. Following the fall of the Kabul government Iran was in a fix; it has to reach some level of accommodation with Afghanistan's new rulers both for strategic and economic reasons.

 

[STURM]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022...hiri-killed[I]-in-us-drone-strike-reports[/I]

“Justice has been delivered and this terrorist leader is no more,” Biden said in a special televised address from outside the White"

"Intelligence had located al-Zawahiri’s family in Kabul earlier this year, Biden said, adding that no members of the family or civilians had been killed"

Justice may well have been served but ultimately AQ; which has been on a steady decline for quite a while now; will continue to exist and will continue to attract members [irrespective of how many members are killed] to its cause; this will not change unless or until some of the root causes are addressed.

Biden spoke of there having been no civilian deaths or injuries which is great because over the past years UAS strikes have taken a great toll on Afghan civilians who were at the wrong place at the wrong time; these deaths played a large part in colouring their view of foreign troops on their soil [the message to them was that their lives weren't worth much to foreign governments] and of the Kabul government which could only complain but not do much more beyond that.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Trust they do something with the E waste!!!!!

In 2021 you would think they had enough smarts not to go down this path again.

Hope its an isolated event.


Regards S

During the 'liberation of Afghanistan', the Taliban told the world press that we do not have to be worried, because they have grown and becoming more wise and mature.
I was sceptical, but many people on the internet said that "The Talibans are actually not that bad" or "We should give them a chance."
Sadly i was right.

Afghanistan: Taliban ban women from universities amid condemnation

The move further restricts women's education, after girls were already excluded from secondary schools.

www.bbc.com