ADF General discussion thread

How much "on call" and extra capacity rolling stock is available at the present time?
I expect that there is very little extra capacity within the system to carry the freight volumes being discussed here.
Do we still have state railway workshops producing flat cars?
How many extra locomotives would be needed and where are these going to come from?
MB
 
Milne Bay said:
How much "on call" and extra capacity rolling stock is available at the present time?
I expect that there is very little extra capacity within the system to carry the freight volumes being discussed here.
Do we still have state railway workshops producing flat cars?
How many extra locomotives would be needed and where are these going to come from?
MB
Click to expand...
We would need lots. I doubt there is much spare.

There is actually a reasonably good in country rail manufacturing industry. It's an industry that has been well supported by the mining fraternity for a long time. The big miners are major rail users.

UGL and Downer both make diesel locomotives, and there are multiple producers for rolling stock.
 
Milne Bay said:
How much "on call" and extra capacity rolling stock is available at the present time?
I expect that there is very little extra capacity within the system to carry the freight volumes being discussed here.
Do we still have state railway workshops producing flat cars?
How many extra locomotives would be needed and where are these going to come from?
MB
Click to expand...

I suggest there’s practically nil extra capacity or substantial workshops to promptly construct rolling stock.
This is the price we now pay for profit driven privatisation and minimal holdings cost rationalising.
Remembering it comes from an era of ‘just in time’ logistics.

In the immediate term I think we should formalise a structural fuels supply chain sourced from across the Pacific.
Even if it’s a % of total imports and it’s technically more cost incurring.
This is because established supply chains are more durable and potentially flexible than scrambling deals in emergencies.

We, and the nation spend a lot of time and effort on elaborate defence footings and military bling, well this is a timely profound lesson in basic survival logistics.

Imagine how much better we would be today if we had a developed biofuels sector.
Imagine how worse off we would be if a % of the economy wasn’t already electrified.
 
Wombat000 said:
I suggest there’s practically nil extra capacity or substantial workshops to promptly construct rolling stock.
This is the price we now pay for profit driven privatisation and minimal holdings cost rationalising.
Remembering it comes from an era of ‘just in time’ logistics.

In the immediate term I think we should formalise a structural fuels supply chain sourced from across the Pacific.
Even if it’s a % of total imports and it’s technically more cost incurring.
This is because established supply chains are more durable and potentially flexible than scrambling deals in emergencies.

We, and the nation spend a lot of time and effort on elaborate defence footings and military bling, well this is a timely profound lesson in basic survival logistics.

Imagine how much better we would be today if we had a developed biofuels sector.
Imagine how worse off we would be if a % of the economy wasn’t already electrified.
Click to expand...
A just transition would invest just in time to build capacity before retail fuel is retired.
 
SamB said:
Long haul trucking is the last six figure salary job that doesn't require a degree. There will be consequences. The federal government failed to protect taxi drivers from uber I think they should move to protect this one. Letting go of the Falcon and Commodore was a kick in the guts but road trains too?. Are you sure.
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Hardly, the following come to mind without even thinking real hard.
- Mining
- Electrician
- Plumber
- Builder

What sort of consequences will there be?

Unless energy density of batteries significantly increases, diesel and jet fuel aren't going anywhere in a hurry. And a significant portion of fuel usage is in the transport industry with no existing replacement in sight.

What might change is the type and origin of the fuel.
 
StevoJH said:
Hardly, the following come to mind without even thinking real hard.
- Mining
- Electrician
- Plumber
- Builder

What sort of consequences will there be?

Unless energy density of batteries significantly increases, diesel and jet fuel aren't going anywhere in a hurry. And a significant portion of fuel usage is in the transport industry with no existing replacement in sight.

What might change is the type and origin of the fuel.
Click to expand...

A plumber exits TAFE on six figures. Takes a post grade until 30 or maybe 40 years old before they're on six figures. If you look at all the emerging sectors like Artificial intelligence, Tesla and SpaceX etc the employees involved in every single growth sector are all scientists in there own right.

For the most part Australians are not well suited for University. For those who are fidgety and rambunctious there is TAFE but provisions must be set aside for those who go to school just to eat lunch.

I believe that there must always be at least five hierarchies.

The ultra poor. The poor, the middle class, the wealthy and the ultra wealthy.

Just because Australia mismanaged deindustrialization doesn't now mean that there is only 3 hierarchies or that we should provision for only 2 or 3 hierarchies.

Your energy and transportation network has to make sense. Just incase logistics is not a long term solution. Ideally and by all rights Australia would gather every physicist they have to put chalk to board and math the fuck out it.
 
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StevoJH said:
Hardly, the following come to mind without even thinking real hard.
- Mining
- Electrician
- Plumber
- Builder

What sort of consequences will there be?

Unless energy density of batteries significantly increases, diesel and jet fuel aren't going anywhere in a hurry. And a significant portion of fuel usage is in the transport industry with no existing replacement in sight.

What might change is the type and origin of the fuel.
Click to expand...
There are a shite load of PMs without a degree too. They actually seem to prefer them completely unqualified, or failing that, unsuitably qualified.

Its weird, there are a lot of tradies I know who struggled with undergraduatd degrees, and even associate/advanced diplomas, who excelled at post grad.

A lot of tradies are very smart but visual thinkers who struggle with the verbal linea thinking required for lower levels, but are in their element with more complex areas where they have a high level of experience and interest.
 
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Volkodav said:
Storage is not the issue because we also have space. High volume storage such salt and sand batteries are good options here.
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It's an issue in the short term because it needs to be built, & it will continue to be an issue because of cost.

Australia still has advantages in renewals, & one of them is, as you say, space. Another is local sources of some necessary minerals.
 
Stampede said:
All for exploring many forms of of energy generation but the simple fact is that fossil fuels are a big part of the mix today and into the future. Particularly in the transport field for both the military and civilian sectors.

Some perspective ,our economy is the 15th largest in the world by nominal GDP valued at some US$1.83 trillion dollars.

Why on early we we didn’t at least meet 90 days reserve. I do not understand. This is made worse by the fact we are an island and have no land boards where we can pipe our truck through supplies. Even the talk of of running out of fuel and all the uncertainty on the news and personal conversations amongst friends indicates how much we rely on fuel to keep our society going. A few billion dollars on fuel storage and rotating and pipes and all the infrastructure to make this work is small Change at the end of the day..
We don’t know where this conflict is going, but we do know the uncertainty brings.

We need to take this lesson and act upon it as soon as possible.


Cheers S
Click to expand...

The costs to keep a 90 day supply were quoted as 20bn over a 4 year period hence the decision against it
 
Lolcake said:
The costs to keep a 90 day supply were quoted as 20bn over a 4 year period hence the decision against it
Click to expand...
So what was the calculated opportunity cost of fuel if a 90 day domestic supply was not held. That is what the reported A$20Bn should be compared against rather than a null sum. It is a case of comparing oranges with oranges rather than oranges and nothing.
 
That $20 billion would, I think, also include the cost of the fuel. But that is effectively means you become a trading organisation as you need to continuously turn it over, so unless you are a complete economic moron over time it should become a money making business..
 
OldTex said:
So what was the calculated opportunity cost of fuel if a 90 day domestic supply was not held. That is what the reported A$20Bn should be compared against rather than a null sum. It is a case of comparing oranges with oranges rather than oranges and nothing.
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I think it was 2012 we last had 90 days supply.
What’s changed that we cannot meet that expectation today.
My sons off for a month long van camping trip in NZ tomorrow. His itinerary is changing as we speak. Colleague at works bother had his fuel syphoned out of his car at the weekend.
So many conversations on the news re the impact to business and personal our needs hinging on fuel supply.
Everyone is impacted on a personal level and we as a nation are adjusting on a macro level.
It’s avoidable nonsense that we have created listening to short term bean counters who holistically don’t look at the big picture.

here’s the thing.
We are not even in a active conflict yet alone being physically impacted by hostile action.

Such an appalling situation.

You cannot run a defence force if you cannot run a nation.

Cheers S
 
Stampede said:
I think it was 2012 we last had 90 days supply.
What’s changed that we cannot meet that expectation today.
My sons off for a month long van camping trip in NZ tomorrow. His itinerary is changing as we speak. Colleague at works bother had his fuel syphoned out of his car at the weekend.
So many conversations on the news re the impact to business and personal our needs hinging on fuel supply.
Everyone is impacted on a personal level and we as a nation are adjusting on a macro level.
It’s avoidable nonsense that we have created listening to short term bean counters who holistically don’t look at the big picture.

here’s the thing.
We are not even in a active conflict yet alone being physically impacted by hostile action.

Such an appalling situation.

You cannot run a defence force if you cannot run a nation.

Cheers S
Click to expand...

I think several things happened.

The first is that fuel consumption since 2010 (when we had 8 refineries in operation) has doubled. For example diesel consumption in 2010 was about 18 billion litres. In 2025 it was 35 billion litres. Similar trends occured for petrol and avgas.

Storage was not increased to align with this increase in consumption. The fuel industry has always been a tight margin game. Intense competition ruthlesssly drove out unnecessary costs, including excess storage. Storage was aligned over this period to "just in time" metrics (i.e the minimum required to continue supply between shipments).

Legislation mandating storage only came in 2021, by which stage inventory was already down to the current levels. There was not a requirement before this time and it basically prevented it reducing further. I should note the Government committed about $500 million as part of the legislation to expand storage. Notably this legislation was updated in 2024 with an increase to the current 30-32 days.
 
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SamB said:
Long haul trucking is the last six figure salary job that doesn't require a degree. There will be consequences. The federal government failed to protect taxi drivers from uber I think they should move to protect this one. Letting go of the Falcon and Commodore was a kick in the guts but road trains too?. Are you sure.
Click to expand...


No its not!
There are plenty of jobs that just require a cert 3 or 4 that will give a 6 figure job, some require shift work however, and the shift allowance will put you way over $100K.
For example, I am currently way north of $150K , with some of my peers over $300K ( lots of overtime) but base salary is @ $127K with 6 pays left in this year. Add 7 weeks annual leave and 4 months long service after 10 years service and 15 sick day....
 
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old faithful said:
No its not!
There are plenty of jobs that just require a cert 3 or 4 that will give a 6 figure job, some require shift work however, and the shift allowance will put you way over $100K.
For example, I am currently way north of $150K , with some of my peers over $300K ( lots of overtime) but base salary is @ $127K with 6 pays left in this year. Add 7 weeks annual leave and 4 months long service after 10 years service and 15 sick day....
Click to expand...
Computational technology such as Macca's kiosks or drones are now ubiquitous. These maccas workers can't even clean the bloody icecream machine anymore they gotta wait for sparkies to do it. I digress. Computational technology may compress time and space but if the printer catches on the lip the whole thing shuts down and Australia's education system hasn't equipped low wage workers with the experience required to find a work around. They maybe able to button smash but they ain't equipped to trouble shot computational technology and this learning gap just isn't being accounted for.
 
SammyC said:
I think several things happened.

The first is that fuel consumption since 2010 (when we had 8 refineries in operation) has doubled. For example diesel consumption in 2010 was about 18 billion litres. In 2025 it was 35 billion litres. Similar trends occured for petrol and avgas.

Storage was not increased to align with this increase in consumption. The fuel industry has always been a tight margin game. Intense competition ruthlesssly drove out unnecessary costs, including excess storage. Storage was aligned over this period to "just in time" metrics (i.e the minimum required to continue supply between shipments).

Legislation mandating storage only came in 2021, by which stage inventory was already down to the current levels. There was not a requirement before this time and it basically prevented it reducing further. I should note the Government committed about $500 million as part of the legislation to expand storage. Notably this legislation was updated in 2024 with an increase to the current 30-32 days.
Click to expand...
What’s happened to the committed project money? It will be like my next sentence …
 
John Fedup said:
Yes, storage is an issue. New battery technology can hopefully address part of this and using excess wind and solar output could be directed to hydrolysis for H-2 production.
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We have uranium. Our allies are building cheap reactors. The costs spruiked at the last election were nonsense.
 
Bob53 said:
We have uranium. Our allies are building cheap reactors. The costs spruiked at the last election were nonsense.
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As a pro nuclear power advocate if viable alternatives exist then these would be preferable to nuclear primarily due to the waste management issues. Solar and wind are good options but for base load NG is needed. Eventually due to CO2 emissions nuclear will be necessary at some point. Delaying this has one advantage, maybe fusion will arrive (….a big maybe):rolleyes:
 
old faithful said:
No its not!
There are plenty of jobs that just require a cert 3 or 4 that will give a 6 figure job, some require shift work however, and the shift allowance will put you way over $100K.
For example, I am currently way north of $150K , with some of my peers over $300K ( lots of overtime) but base salary is @ $127K with 6 pays left in this year. Add 7 weeks annual leave and 4 months long service after 10 years service and 15 sick day....
Click to expand...
Would you mind naming them. Looking for work now. Got made redundant recently
 
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