ADF General discussion thread

[old faithful]

Biggest problem I have with wind turbines, is that each and every one of them has 3 tons of copper wire in them.
Production of copper is definitely not environmental friendly, and then processing it to a wire is even worse. There has to be a better alternative to wind turbines.

 

[swerve]

... Renewables...great if we actually needed to do it. But we don't, we could easily use gas, if we didn't have to buy it back at a huge cost...I did say short sightedness. ...

Considering Australia's climate, solar power is a no-brainer. It's cheap nowadays, & there are many ways to use any excess when the sun's shining.

 

[Bob53]

Not sure how you link offshoring our manufacturing to renewable energy?

Housing crisis solely an immigration problem?

Can't do a mining tax because it's too hard?

There's a whole lot of finger-pointing going on here with very little active thought given at all.

Renewable energy could be the cornerstone of not only reinvigorating our manufacturing but also ensuring we have a distributed & modular energy generation capability with the redundancy of local manufacturing being able to sustain, repair and replace it. It has the potential to boost both Defence and manufacturing.

Nuclear involves sending money offshore, getting a sealed unit that if damaged or threatened becomes deadweight and at the mercy of a foreign nation's supply chain.

Housing crisis... has been done to death. End tax breaks for investment properties, yes housing prices will crash, back to where they probably should be... back to something affordable.

A mining tax or royalties scheme is not too hard if there is bipartisanism. Yes it might require a ground-up approach and some honest conversations about how money is spent, or even Australia's relationship with the indigenous population but just because it is hard does not mean it cannot be done.

I swear, sometimes it feels like the generation that constantly complains about current generations not working hard enough or being soft is the actual problem. So focused on protecting their own net wealth and doing their "own research". Is the generation that reaped the benefits of peace post WW2 actually Australia's softest?

Regarding Indo-Russia previously, while I don't think it could ever really happen at all, it does bring one point back into focus. Indonesia is a neutral country largely and in the event of conflict to our north would likely deny us access to their waters and airspace. Is Darwin then the best "northern" base? Maybe not.

Questionable if property prices will crash if tax breaks for investment properties ceases. In Victoria many additional taxes and imposts have been added to land lords In addition to rules and rights that are heavily in favour of the tenant. Even with these taxes Property prices haven’t crashed.

Some land lords have exited and as a result rents have sky rocketed as the additional cost are passed on to tenants along with a smaller pool of rental,properties. The exit of about 40000 landlords over 3 years has also hit state Giv coffer with vic Gov land tax collections down nearly $900 million this financial year On budget. The whole raise land tax for those greedy landlords approach has back fired big time. In vic it doubles again this year for a non Principle place of residence. The tough part is vic land tax is calculated on the total accumulated land holdings …so if you have multiple properties you don’t get taxed at 3 x $500k land value rate. No you get taxed at the $1.5m rate which is a lot higher. Add to that additional land tax surcharges for anything owned in a trust, vacant land, and vacant property.and it’s increasing each year.
of course when they build these million new homes that will solve the problems.

 

[Rob c]

Biggest problem I have with wind turbines, is that each and every one of them has 3 tons of copper wire in them.
Production of copper is definitely not environmental friendly, and then processing it to a wire is even worse. There has to be a better alternative to wind turbines.

Copper wire is a basic ingredient of the electrical industry and large amounts are use in any form of production that use mechanical input to produce the electricity, not counting it's extensive use in transmitting and controlling the output. Unfortunately the production of most metals is not environmental friendly, for instance the figures I have read for lithium quote the figure of 1500 tonnes of carbon released for every tonne produced. I take the view that if the final producer of the electricity is not continuing to significantly be environmentally poor, then the electricity so produced is helping the environment. It is a one off loss to a greater long term gain.

 

[SammyC]

Copper wire is a basic ingredient of the electrical industry and large amounts are use in any form of production that use mechanical input to produce the electricity, not counting it's extensive use in transmitting and controlling the output. Unfortunately the production of most metals is not environmental friendly, for instance the figures I have read for lithium quote the figure of 1500 tonnes of carbon released for every tonne produced. I take the view that if the final producer of the electricity is not continuing to significantly be environmentally poor, then the electricity so produced is helping the environment. It is a one off loss to a greater long term gain.

I'm familiar with the Covalent lithium factory in WA, which publicly advises a figure of 6.3 t CO2 per tonne lithium hydroxide (end product) for scope 1 and 2 emissions. This covers extraction at Mt Holland and processing in Kwinana. Rob I know some of the South American factories that use brine rather than rock can get down around 1.5-2 tCO2, I'm thinking your number is a wrong unit (kg rather than tonnes).

Copper for comparison is about 4 tCO2 per tonne product and aluminium is about 5t (again scope 1 and 2 emissions as publicly reported by Alcoa). Also for comparison, petrol releases about 2.5 tCO2 per tonne product when combusted and about an extra 1 tCO2 per tonne product for the extraction, transport and refining. The average car would consume about 1.5 tonnes of petrol per year, so 5.25 tCO2 per annum per car.

The vast majority of the Covalent lithium CO2 generation is via electrical power (LNG at Mt Holland, grid connected at Kwinana). I should note that the WA power grid (the South West Interconnected System), is very rapidly converting to renewables, so this number will drop over time.

By Oct this year the grid will have 1.5GW of big battery, and by the end of next year it will have over 2 GW (all with a 4 hour capacity). That's excluding home batteries, which with the upcoming state and federal subsidies is likely to explode in popularity. The average gid consumption for the SWIS is about 1.5 GW average (varies between less than 0.7GW at midday, up to about 2.5-4GW at 6pm) for comparison.

Chinese lithium production can be upwards of 20 tCO2 per tonne product, simply because of the fuel source for electricity.

 

[SammyC]

Back on Defence themes, being an old gen xer, I watch ABC. I came across this video from the Insiders team. It's an interview with Jen Parker and Peter Dean, two people that I place more credence in.

It reviews the Coalition and Labor approach to Defence, but also looks at aspects such as the role reservists play, recruitment/retention and the underpinnings to power projection (bullets and fuel). Interesting discussion.

They also discussed the need to improved missile defence, and where such systems would be employed (mostly in the north). And a look at the Coalition's proposal for another squadron of F35s (more like $10 billion, and we don't have enough pilots or missiles to use them).

 

[downunderblue]

Guys, I checked and there is a 'future energy pathways' topic in the 'Intro's and Off topic thread' if you want to talk thorium vs presurised water reactors, renewable vs gas, storage options and anything really cool about energy. Cool as it is, it just isn't ADF-related.

Future Energy Pathways

An interesting video about the ITER fusion reactor, the biggest of its kind in the world, currently being built under supervision of EURATOM and with the participation of the EU, China, Usa, Russia, India, Japan and Korea. The program, overbudget and behind schedule, is extremely important and...

www.defencetalk.com

 

[downunderblue]

Back on Defence themes, being an old gen xer, I watch ABC. I came across this video from the Insiders team. It's an interview with Jen Parker and Peter Dean, two people that I place more credence in.

It reviews the Coalition and Labor approach to Defence, but also looks at aspects such as the role reservists play, recruitment/retention and the underpinnings to power projection (bullets and fuel). Interesting discussion.

They also discussed the need to improved missile defence, and where such systems would be employed (mostly in the north). And a look at the Coalition's proposal for another squadron of F35s (more like $10 billion, and we don't have enough pilots or missiles to use them).

At the end, Peter Dean states that the difference in the two party approach is 'Labour has a plan but not enough money, and the Coalition has the money but no plan'.

I think this is really disengenuous. An opposition will never put forward a Defence Strategy or Integrated Investment Program because they are in opposition and don't have the resources of Government to do so.

I for one will just be happy with the commitment of extra money. Yes as Jen said, it'd be good if those funds went to gaps in a needs analysis, but that's the job of the Department and Government, not an Opposition.

Mind you, it just isn't all going to matter. The trend is since "late February, the Coalition’s primary vote has collapsed by 11% in Victoria and 9% nationally". It's almost game over before it even started.

And yes I say that in relation to how it will affect ADF funding, really not wanting to get political at all.

 

[Reptilia]

At the end, Peter Dean states that the difference in the two party approach is 'Labour has a plan but not enough money, and the Coalition has the money but no plan'.

I think this is really disengenuous. An opposition will never put forward a Defence Strategy or Integrated Investment Program because they are in opposition and don't have the resources of Government to do so.

I for one will just be happy with the commitment of extra money. Yes as Jen said, it'd be good if those funds went to gaps in a needs analysis, but that's the job of the Department and Government, not an Opposition.

Mind you, it just isn't all going to matter. The trend is since "late February, the Coalition’s primary vote has collapsed by 11% in Victoria and 9% nationally". It's almost game over before it even started.

And yes I say that in relation to how it will affect ADF funding, really not wanting to get political at all.

both said a 4th squadron is low on the priority list or not at all and that it would not be anywhere near $3 billion, more like $6+(factoring in everything) whereas the coalition said that’s one of the first things they would do with the extra money.
21 billion extra over 6 years, = almost a 1/3 spent on a 4th squadron and we probably wouldn’t get them until the early/mid 2030s.
-missile manufacturing was also mentioned but has already been sped up by the current government.
Extra money sounds good but with little thought behind it. Doesn’t look good either announcing it just 10 days from an election with no detail.

 

[StevoJH]

both said a 4th squadron is low on the priority list or not at all and that it would not be anywhere near $3 billion, more like $6+(factoring in everything) whereas the coalition said that’s one of the first things they would do with the extra money.
21 billion extra over 6 years, = almost a 1/3 spent on a 4th squadron and we probably wouldn’t get them until the early/mid 2030s.
-missile manufacturing was also mentioned but has already been sped up by the current government.
Extra money sounds good but with little thought behind it. Doesn’t look good either announcing it just 10 days from an election with no detail.

None of that money is likely to be spent on F-35’s because even if they were ordered immediately they probably won’t be available until well over 6 years from now unless someone else gives up build slots.

Given the current geopolitical environment, how likely is it that anyone is willing to give up F-35A build slots?

 

[Reptilia]

None of that money is likely to be spent on F-35’s because even if they were ordered immediately they probably won’t be available until well over 6 years from now unless someone else gives up build slots.

Given the current geopolitical environment, how likely is it that anyone is willing to give up F-35A build slots?

That’s why I said early/mid 2030s.
If Canada and others do not proceed then it’s possible we could see earlier delivery.

 

[Rob c]

I'm familiar with the Covalent lithium factory in WA, which publicly advises a figure of 6.3 t CO2 per tonne lithium hydroxide (end product) for scope 1 and 2 emissions. This covers extraction at Mt Holland and processing in Kwinana. Rob I know some of the South American factories that use brine rather than rock can get down around 1.5-2 tCO2, I'm thinking your number is a wrong unit (kg rather than tonnes)

Yep, I was going from memory, not the greatest. However the figure was for the total up to a finished battery and this is significantly higher than just the mining. These figures seam wildly all over the place. for a 80KWH battery the carbon released at one site was between 2.4 tonnes to 16 tonnes.https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/how-much-co2-emitted-manufacturing-batteries
So we need to add this to the mining.

 

[SammyC]

At the end, Peter Dean states that the difference in the two party approach is 'Labour has a plan but not enough money, and the Coalition has the money but no plan'.

I think this is really disengenuous. An opposition will never put forward a Defence Strategy or Integrated Investment Program because they are in opposition and don't have the resources of Government to do so.

I for one will just be happy with the commitment of extra money. Yes as Jen said, it'd be good if those funds went to gaps in a needs analysis, but that's the job of the Department and Government, not an Opposition.

Mind you, it just isn't all going to matter. The trend is since "late February, the Coalition’s primary vote has collapsed by 11% in Victoria and 9% nationally". It's almost game over before it even started.

And yes I say that in relation to how it will affect ADF funding, really not wanting to get political at all.

The polling analytics indicates that defence spending is just not a vote turner. Less than 30% of the Australian population believe that defence spending should be increased for instance. It's not a surprise to me that the Coalition is having trouble finding traction with its defence spending policy. In my view it was a misstep and was ill-disciplined. It's also not a surprise to me that Labor is not campaigning on defence at all, having set that adgenda a long time ago.

Defence is something that tends to get its funding outside the election cycle. That happened last time with the 2024 IIP, and the next update is in 2027, well before the next election. There is money available for increased defence spending over the forward estimate and decade, either with taxation bracket creep or increased debt. So there is room to move.

I'm thinking that regardless of which party has office after next weekend, we would likely see some additional funding movement over the second part of the year and into 2026. Probably more drip fed individual announcements, then consolidated in the 2027 IIP.

 

[SammyC]

Yep, I was going from memory, not the greatest. However the figure was for the total up to a finished battery and this is significantly higher than just the mining. These figures seam wildly all over the place. for a 80KWH battery the carbon released at one site was between 2.4 tonnes to 16 tonnes.https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/how-much-co2-emitted-manufacturing-batteries
So we need to add this to the mining.

I would agree with you on that.

 

[hauritz]

Back on Defence themes, being an old gen xer, I watch ABC. I came across this video from the Insiders team. It's an interview with Jen Parker and Peter Dean, two people that I place more credence in.

It reviews the Coalition and Labor approach to Defence, but also looks at aspects such as the role reservists play, recruitment/retention and the underpinnings to power projection (bullets and fuel). Interesting discussion.

They also discussed the need to improved missile defence, and where such systems would be employed (mostly in the north). And a look at the Coalition's proposal for another squadron of F35s (more like $10 billion, and we don't have enough pilots or missiles to use them).

One other major priority is a manufacturing industry capable of supplying the guns and bullets we will need to stay in the fight for more than a few weeks.

Stockpiling weapons such as missiles, bombs and other equipment is all well and good but during an actual war these stocks will be burned through fairly quickly.

 

[SammyC]

One other major priority is a manufacturing industry capable of supplying the guns and bullets we will need to stay in the fight for more than a few weeks.

Stockpiling weapons such as missiles, bombs and other equipment is all well and good but during an actual war these stocks will be burned through fairly quickly.

Yep, we seriously need those factories. The Kongsberg JSM/NSM, LM GMLRS and the Thales 155mm plants are all great. Could probably do with them sooner and at larger capacity.

But what we really need is a Raytheon AMRAAM and ESSM plant to keep our basic ship, fighter jet and shore defence systems filled and operational. This in turn relies on a competent rocket motor manufacturer to set up shop. In my view this is the missing piece of the puzzle that is taking a surprisingly long time to reach an outcome on.

 

[Bob53]

At the end, Peter Dean states that the difference in the two party approach is 'Labour has a plan but not enough money, and the Coalition has the money but no plan'.

I think this is really disengenuous. An opposition will never put forward a Defence Strategy or Integrated Investment Program because they are in opposition and don't have the resources of Government to do so.

I for one will just be happy with the commitment of extra money. Yes as Jen said, it'd be good if those funds went to gaps in a needs analysis, but that's the job of the Department and Government, not an Opposition.

Mind you, it just isn't all going to matter. The trend is since "late February, the Coalition’s primary vote has collapsed by 11% in Victoria and 9% nationally". It's almost game over before it even started.

And yes I say that in relation to how it will affect ADF funding, really not wanting to get political at all.

we keep getting back to politics but is anyone else amazed that the Liberal primary is dropping in Victoria of all places. After the all the vic state gov issues from COVID lockdowns falsely claimed to be on medical advice, all the scandals, through to the massive debt being run up …I’m amazed by this.

 

[Reptilia]

we keep getting back to politics but is anyone else amazed that the Liberal primary is dropping in Victoria of all places. After the all the vic state gov issues from COVID lockdowns falsely claimed to be on medical advice, all the scandals, through to the massive debt being run up …I’m amazed by this.

not really, people don’t think things will get better under the liberals either and so the votes are going to third parties and not labor.

 

[Volkodav]

we keep getting back to politics but is anyone else amazed that the Liberal primary is dropping in Victoria of all places. After the all the state gov issues from COVID, all the scandals, through to the massive debt being run up …I’m amazed by this.

I think Victorians are fed up with loud, violent, self entitled thugs. They've had violent protest after violent protest from the extreme left, extreme right, union thugs, every fringe dweller telling them how to live and wanting to burn the world down.

They want stability and at the moment the only element looking stable is Labor. I think if Dutton had kept his mouth shut the libs would be in a better place, but his back flips and mis-speakings suggest he is erratic or lying.

Things like preferencing one nation is a huge turn off for those they hoped to win back from the teals.

 

[downunderblue]

we keep getting back to politics but is anyone else amazed that the Liberal primary is dropping in Victoria of all places. After the all the vic state gov issues from COVID lockdowns falsely claimed to be on medical advice, all the scandals, through to the massive debt being run up …I’m amazed by this.

Considering its a politics discussion on a very tired and weary ADF General discussion thread, I have replied appropriately in the aptly named 'really dumb news stories' thread. Whilst interesting none the less, I thought the thread name summed up this election and AU politics in full and it might be a good repository for any future such chatter (up until the morning of Sunday 4MAY, at least!)

Really Dumb News Stories

Here's is a thread to dump all the news stories to stupid to post anywhere else. Here's one I just read today. Some people truly have to get a grip. And all who sail in … it? The language row over 'female' ships

www.defencetalk.com