abramsteve said:
TrangleC, by beat the Americans do you mean knock them out of the war, or invade and occupy the mainland US?
I meant just knocking them out of the war by defeating the US Navy.
Then number of troops required to occupy either the US, or Australia is not only fictional, its almost completley improbable. Thats not to say we couldnt have been invaded and split in two though...
Well.... it seems to be such a weird idea because we are used to the thought that the americans sit on their rich island far away and untouchable from every war they join and just drown every enemy in aircraft, ships and tanks, but when you think about it... if somebody would be able to defeat their military, why shouldn't they and so the australians be harder to occupy than every other country?
The population certainly wasn't too big and isn't today.
How many soldiers did the british need to occupy India?
How could the japanese occupy about one third of China?
What would a few million australians more or less to controll mean compared to that?
All you need is more firepower. Once the military is defeated, a few rebel civilians can be pretty annoying but never really can defeat a army that is determined to take and keep their land.
oh and dont rule out our air force, at one stage of the war we had the worlds 4th largest air force, that may have been at the end of it but still. The German air force out numbered the Royal Air force but still wasnt able to defeat it. There might be a number of reasons why, but whos to say those same reasons wouldnt apply to the Japanese.
The numbers would just have been too extreme.
Also the japanese fleet would always have been able to choose when and where to attack, while the australians would have had to split their already much smaller airforce to be present at several points.
Even if the japanese would have send just enough carriers to match the australian fleet in numbers, the advantage of operating from mobile bases and being able to split up or concentrate their whole force whenever they wanted, would have been an overwhelming strategic advantage.
It would have been like a pack of wolves circling around a deer cow (hind?) who tries to protect her calf.
This thread may be about a fictional outcome to the war, but it has to be based on some logical reasoning, otherwise I might just say 'then Australia developed an A-bomb, went beserk and dropped it on everyone and then ruled the world!'
I agree.
So let's come up with a raw but possible scenario:
The most important parts of the american fleet wouldn't have been moved from Pearl Harbour just a day or two before the japanese attack but would have been sunk together with all the old ships that were there (and lost) in reality.
(I'm sure you know about american aircraft carriers just being send to transport new aircraft to other bases and thus luckily being absent from Pearl Harbour when the attack happened.)
So the US Navy would really have been crippled with that one first attack and would have needed a longer time to recover, giving the japanese navy much more time to attack further targets and to consolidate their own forces and bases.
Maybe that advantage even would have been big enough for the japanese to deal further severe blows against american shipyards along the western american coast.
At the same time they could have made more use of all the poor people they already had subjected to drastically increase their industrial power. With less harrasment and thread by the american navy, they could have done virtually everything.
The more i think about it, the more i'm convinced that the whole war in the pacific really could have had a totally different outcome if really a bigger part of the US Navy would have been destroyed in Pearl Harbour.
Sure, the USA would still have had a superior industrial capacity for a while at least, but that might have had less influence because it is not much use to build ships that fast if they are still sunk faster by a enemy fleet virtually waiting in front of the shipyards.
If those aircraft carriers that formed the backbone of the recovering american fleet after the attack on Pearl Harbour would have been sunk with the first blow, the japanese fleet would have had a big advantage and could have moved free in the pacific while at the same time their industry would have had more time to catch up with the american.
Actually the whole start of the war was done rather halfassed by the japanese. I would have send the fleet to the most valuable targets at the american coast right after the attack on Pearl Harbour to deal a severe blow before they had the time to adjust to the new situation after Pearl Harbour, buying some more months of free and unharrassed preparation for the counterattack, if i would have been in charge there. Certainly better than just bringing the fleet home and waiting what happens next.
Also their surveillance was a mess. They should have known about the missing ships and their wereabauts.
Anyway, after doing that, they might have had the time to increase their industrial capabilities to an extend that allowed them to keep ahead of the recovering americans, just enough so the new ships, though still being less than the newly build american ships, together with the old, for some time undisputed fleet and the island bases which would have profited a great deal from the lack of american harrasment, still could overpower the americans till the industry finally would be able to really match theirs.
I think that isn't even such a unlikely scenario. After all it starts with just one little, but quite influencial adjustment to real history.
Another factor is that if really a bigger part of the pacific fleet would have been wiped out, the americans might have felt forced to transfer ships from the atlantic, giving the germans there a advantage.
If the germans would have won the war in the atlantic (and they even weren't so far away from doing that in real history), the whole war would have had a different outcome. With Britain cut off american support maybe Germany would have won back the air superiority over Europe after a while, enableing it to defeat the russians. Especially since in such a case the constant pressure through the air attacks would have stopped. I once read that the bombing attacks not just killed so many civilians, but also prevented the germans from building and putting in service a whole tank battallion or 2 fighter squadrons per month!
A lot of IFs, but none of them totally impossible, i think.
(By the way, i'm german, but not one who wishes something like that really would have happened. I wouldn't exist if Germany would have won the war, because my mother is from Jugoslavia and her parents fought on the kommunist resistance side while the father of my father was in the german navy and his 2 brothers died in Stalingrad.)