6th Generation Fighters Projects

koxinga said:
Now the German government might think like you and me, but the unions don't, and I doubt they (Airbus/Germany industry) care about Japan's security considerations either.
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Sure. But German unions don't get a say in the matter - they have no leverage over Japan. Nor does Germany for that matter.

The issue isn't that members shouldn't be posting about Airbus' ambitions, it's more that we shouldn't be giving them any credence by suggesting the subject is up for discussion. It's like playing fantasy fleets on the navy sub-forum, it's not helpful.

I appreciate I am putting myself out there by being so firm that the contract won't be reopened, but sometimes there is no news and it's ok not to post for a lengthy period of time. I don't think that Airbus trying to wrangle itself a share of an existing contract is news if there's no realistic prospect of it getting it.

I think a better question would be how would Berlin sell to voters and unions a GCAP purchase on assumption there won't be a big share of the overall work. Exaggerate the benefits of final local assembly? German companies getting a minor contract to supply the wider project? An EU-based maintenance centre in case other member states buy GCAP?
 
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Musashi_kenshin said:
Sure. But German unions don't get a say in the matter - they have no leverage over Japan. Nor does Germany for that matter.

The issue isn't that members shouldn't be posting about Airbus' ambitions, it's more that we shouldn't be giving them any credence by suggesting the subject is up for discussion. It's like playing fantasy fleets on the navy sub-forum, it's not helpful.

I appreciate I am putting myself out there by being so firm that the contract won't be reopened, but sometimes there is no news and it's ok not to post for a lengthy period of time. I don't think that Airbus trying to wrangle itself a share of an existing contract is news if there's no realistic prospect of it getting it.

I think a better question would be how would Berlin sell to voters and unions a GCAP purchase on assumption there won't be a big share of the overall work. Exaggerate the benefits of final local assembly? German companies getting a minor contract to supply the wider project? An EU-based maintenance centre in case other member states buy GCAP?
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A meaningful German entry into GCAP seems improbable at this late stage. Whether a Germany-Spain-Sweden effort happens, maybe. Sweden was briefly involved with GCAP at the start but decided GCAP wasn't right for their airforce (I assume). Can't see a reborn FCAS being any more attractive. CCA and an enhanced Grippen could be Sweden's future path....just my two cents though.
 
John Fedup said:
Was i ever realistic that Airbus and Daussault get on the same page? Was Berlin any worse than Paris wrt to FCAS blowing up? (just asking, I have no idea).
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Dassault is a difficult partner to work with, but it was Airbus (the german part of Airbus) to abandon the project. The german government tried to save the program, but Airbus is just too big. It feels like they did it on purpose, hoping that by blowing FCAS up they were going to convince the government to fund a new plane (so they would be able to get all the funds themselves). It is likely that they miscalculated.
 
SolarisKenzo said:
The german government tried to save the program, but Airbus is just too big. It feels like they did it on purpose, hoping that by blowing FCAS up they were going to convince the government to fund a new plane (so they would be able to get all the funds themselves). It is likely that they miscalculated.
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This is an arguments that few market analysts also pondering. Dasault now lead French to go their own, and Dasault/French also hinting out potential bring in Rafale export customer to join the program as Junior Partner. They have done the deal with UAE with Rafale F5 that basically make UAE as Junior Partner on the program. Some in market speculate if this goes smoothly, similar measure can be offer on French FCAS replacement program.

Could Airbus Military push German to finance them going alone ? This is that some speculate can happen if German can not get enough industrial share with GCAP. Question though, how big German themselves can provide the market size to make it economically viable. German record on making hard in few cases for export Euro Fighter, not showing they can get export orders as much as French historically done.
 
Ananda said:
Could Airbus Military push German to finance them going alone ? This is that some speculate can happen if German can not get enough industrial share with GCAP. Question though, how big German themselves can provide the market size to make it economically viable. German record on making hard in few cases for export Euro Fighter, not showing they can get export orders as much as French historically done.
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Airbus isn't really setup to do everything itself, and the cost would be huge, or the output very compromised.

Japan can't tolerate any more delay. It seems like Japan is pretty much already annoyed with its existing European partners, adding more - but less committed, European partners. Japan isn't interested in more partners, or making money. Its a capability they need that they can't get any other way, and their needs are immediately.

en.defence-ua.com

Japan Resists German Entry Into GCAP Sixth-Gen Fighter, Tokyo Tells London to Give Berlin Its Own Share | Defense Express

Chancellor Merz floats GCAP cooperation at summit with PM Takaichi, but Tokyo warns fourth partner would force work redistribution and delay 2035 target already slipping
en.defence-ua.com en.defence-ua.com

If the UK is struggling with funding, then give the Germans their share and get German money involved. Japans needs, capabilities and money. Japan isn't a Junior partner, its the main game.

Typical Euro defence foreplay will not be tolerated. There isn't time for 5+ years of nebulus defence dating. This was clear when this project was launched.
 
StingrayOZ said:
the UK is struggling with funding, then give the Germans their share and get German money involved. Japans needs, capabilities and money. Japan isn't a Junior partner, its the main game.
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Well seems Japan simply said that also. The work share already in agreement, so does the budget distribution. Thus if German want to come in, it will be the expense of other Euro Partners. The one that seems want to entertaint German wish to join is UK. Thus the workshare and budget distribution for German should take some of UK share. This basically makes UK and German become junior partners.
 
Ananda said:
The one that seems want to entertaint German wish to join is UK. Thus the workshare and budget distribution for German should take some of UK share. This basically makes UK and German become junior partners.
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Well if its rumored that UK, Japan took on 40% each, and italy 20%. It could make it UK/Germany 20%+20% and italy 20%. Japan 40%.

Japan is probably going to order twice as many as the UK. Their need is more urgent.

I don't think junior partners is the right word. All european nations would be equal partners, and Japan 40%. That would give EU nations 60% and Japan 40%.

But it would take huge burden off the UK in costs, Germany would sign up and bring in the real possibility of a 100+ plane order. Germany would have to live with it being a large, long range 6th gen fighter. Not some short range interceptor.

But I think the shortrange interceptor concept is dead. No one is flying fighter jets 100km into enemy territory anymore. Its all long range precision weapons striking directly at targets many hundreds if not thousand km away. It would give Germany proper deterrence and proper global capability. If Germany committed 100 plane order, the whole project becomes much more viable.

There may be some chance to increase speed of production and development, which the project urgently needs.
 
StingrayOZ said:
Germany would have to live with it being a large, long range 6th gen fighter. Not some short range interceptor.
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Japan seems see this as F-15J replacement as F-35A also begin taking over some F-2 function. They don't say it directly but I do see those F-35A as F-2 replacement, as F-35B will aim to provide naval cover aboard their 2 carriers.

Then as F-15J replacement, total order of 200+ GCAP will be in line with their need. As considering their situation, getting F-15J at one on one base will be priority for JSDF.

Thus German will have to decide whether GCAP on the class of F-15J meet their need. If all three Euro partners take 20% each, I do see also Japan will still drive the GCAP design purpose.
 
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