The French built the Rafale in two variants from the get go. One for the Armèe de l' Air and the second for the Marine Nationale.
Yes but the commonality is between 95-80% the differences Primary landing gear and some additional equipment specifically for carrier ops. Compare that to F35 where between the three the commonality is stated between 20-25%. Just consider the amount of just obvious differences here. If we hypothetically parked an F35A next to an F35C and then across the tarmac the Rafale M and C. The F35A has the shoulder mounted gun not found on the C, the C is longer wider and taller with folding wings for Rafale same wings same tail other than paint scheme you need to get into the gear to tell the two apart.
Rafale has a remarkable amount of commonality of course it doesn’t have folding wings so it’s larger in storage on carrier.
If FCAS follows the Rafale line then that’s not a huge issue.
France needs a future CATOBAR naval variant, the rest of Europe doesn’t. France will walk away.
it’s my opinion that what could cause France to leave the program it’s likely to be Export control.
Traditionally France is very liberal in its arms sales. They love selling heavy weapons and equipment around the world. By contrast Germany is of late the opposite.
Exports of sophisticated military systems are such that if you have components made in countries they can enact control over export. We see this all the time. Examples.
American engines prevent Turkish made chopper deliveries to Pakistan.
English sub systems mean South Korean fighters don’t get sold to Argentina.
Germany and The UK had a row a couple years back over Meteor missiles and Typhoons to the Saudis.
Could you imagine if it was FCAS being sold? The French as systems lead would likely want control over export of the system after all its a Dassault.
Now my understanding is currently there is an agreement in place but it requires a threshold minimum of 20% before Germany gets a veto. Which means that the French side have to keep the German content under that limit if they want to sell it as they please. Well Germany will no doubt push to get more of the industry base so as to”bring home the bacon”.