The Washington Post, Taipei, Taiwan — The Bush administration has quietly embarked on an ambitious effort to restructure Taiwan's military and improve the island's ability to defend itself against China. But the U.S. plan is foundering because Taiwan's leaders are reluctant to foot the enormous bill and force change upon the island's highly politicized and conservative military, U.S. and Taiwanese officials said.
The officials acknowledge that the program is a major departure from long- standing U.S. policy limiting military relations with Taiwan to avoid a confrontation with China. They describe it as a crash course intended to help Taiwan keep up with China's rapid military modernization and, importantly, avoid being bullied by Beijing if bilateral talks resume.
It aims to provide more advanced weapons to Taiwan's military and improve command and control, strategy and force planning, communications, and the ability of the island's army, navy and air force to conduct joint operations.
U.S. military representatives, once almost completely banned from visiting Taiwan, are currently involved in dozens of programs on the island, including classroom seminars and training in the field. U.S. officers are advising Taiwan's military at all levels in policy, implementation and training, U.S. and Taiwanese officials said.
The two militaries have established a hot-line for communicating in case of an emergency, a U.S. official and a senior Taiwanese diplomat said. Meanwhile, hundreds of Taiwanese military personnel are undergoing training in the United States, U.S. officials said.
The sharp expansion of military ties risks angering China, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory. “China will not tolerate a de facto alliance, ” a senior Chinese official said on condition of anonymity.
But many officials acknowledge the program has thus far done little to improve Taiwan's ability to defend itself. “The United States has put a lot effort into this project, but there's really no improvement,” said retired Adm.
Nelson Ku, former commander of Taiwan's navy and now a member of Taiwan's congress.
U.S. officials said many Taiwanese officials, including President Chen Shui-bian, were reluctant to lock horns with the powerful military to push reforms. Taiwanese government officials and legislators acknowledge the pace of change is glacial.
“It's like the end of the Qing dynasty, when the emperors bought fancy weapons, but there was no change in thinking,” said Shuai Hua-min, a former army two-star general and one of the main advocates of military reforms. “They don't care whether the weapons systems are useful or not. It's become purely political to show China how close Taiwan is to the United States.”
China has vowed to attack Taiwan if it declares independence. The United States is required by law to provide for Taiwan's defense, but for most of the 1980s and '90s, U.S. military relations with Taiwan were limited to arms sales and a few training programs to support those sales. Following the 1979 normalization of ties with China, the United States banned most uniformed personnel from visiting Taiwan and kept its military at arm's length.
The expansion of military ties with Taiwan began during the Clinton administration, following the 1996 crisis in which China fired missiles into waters off Taiwan. The Pentagon has pushed the relationship to a new level over the past three years because of a growing belief that the Chinese are attempting to develop the capability to undertake a strike against Taiwan to foment mass confusion on the island and decapitate the government before any significant U.S. forces can arrive, U.S. officials and experts said.
The Pentagon has conducted about a dozen assessments, reviews and studies of Taiwanese military capabilities in the past three years, U.S. officials said, including in-depth looks at Taiwan's ability to defend itself against air attacks, naval blockades and military landings as well as its command and control, communications, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems.
One Pentagon report predicts the balance will be in China's favor by 2005 if Taiwan does not embrace military modernization.
At the Bush administration's request, Congress passed legislation last year that would allow it to assign active-duty military personnel to the American Institute in Taiwan, the island's de facto U.S. embassy. U.S. military officers say Taiwan must remake its armed forces to keep up with China, which has purchased new weapons from Russia, improved the ability of its army, navy and air force to work together and positioned hundreds of missiles across from Taiwan. U.S. officials have urged the Taiwanese military to simplify its command structure, demobilize thousands of officers, radically shrink the size of its army from 240,000 men and pour the bulk of its resources into its navy and air force, the services most important to countering a Chinese attack.
Taiwan's Defense Ministry has launched a plan to cut troop strength, but experts say the changes are too small and too slow. And Taiwan's army has blocked for now a government plan to overhaul the military's command structure by putting the army, air force and naval commands under the control of the joint chiefs, Taiwanese officials said. In addition, Taiwan remains divided into five regional commands and a sixth offshore command, far too complicated for an island only slightly larger than Maryland.
U.S. officials have worked with the Taiwanese on their ability to survive a first strike from China, including one that wipes out senior political and military leaders. But a program to harden the island's command bunkers has stalled. The program has not succeeded in finishing even one facility — the Hengshan Command Center in Taipei, the capital — because of allegations of corruption involving the Taiwanese contractor, sources in Taiwan said.
“Chen Shui-bian is seven minutes away from elimination, and he faces that threat every day,” said one U.S. official, referring to the Taiwanese president.
