Gulf News , Probably realising that Washington has bitten off more than it could chew, the Bush Administration seems to be scaling down its sights, by bidding goodbye to the “Axis of Evil”.
This foreign policy shift is based on a chastening experience for American military might in the summer of 2003, afterfailing to curb the growing insurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the realisation at the highest political level in Washington that the “war on terror” could prove to be the political undoing of George W. Bush's presidency.
It is now evident that the arrogance, high-handedness and unilateralism of US policies post 9/11 have spawned more foes, created fear among its few friends, and, worst of all, contributed to promoting terrorism even in such countries as Indonesia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, all erstwhile US allies as “moderate” Muslim countries.
Agitating minds
Soon after the 9/11 attacks, addressing the joint session of the US Congress in Washington on September 20, 2001, Bush asked a question that probably has been agitating the minds of millions of Americans: “Why do they hate us?” referring to the terrorists who committed the carnage in New York and Washington.
The same question must be agitating the American President following his departure from London last week, where he was dogged by demonstrations by thousands of citizens of a country that is America's closest ally.
Compounding this realisation is the feeling of isolation not just in the Muslim world, but among its friends in the West as well, on issues such as the political primacy of the United Nations rather than the “might is right” pre-emptive doctrine of the US, policies towards Palestine, Iran and North Korea and the failure to fulfill human rights obligations towards prisoners languishing in Guantanamo Bay for the last two years without charges, without trial and without access to lawyers.
In fact, the case of none British Muslims in Guantanamo Bay was a major point of friction during the Bush visit to Britain.
After the swift military victory over the Taliban in Afghanistan, the United States expanded the “war on terror”, which was supposed to be only against Al Qaida and the perceived perpetrators of 9/11, to include a war against its long-standing adversaries like Iraq, North Korea and Iran, who had nothing to do with al Qaeda, 9/11 or Osama bin Laden.
It was in January 2002, while addressing the American Congress, that Bush suddenly conjured up the “Axis of Evil”, the troika of states who were next on America's hit list, starting with Iraq, planning for whose regime change predated 9/11.
In other words, the US was trying use the September 11, 2001, attacks as a pretext and opportunity to flex its military muscles in the Middle East and East Asia to “sort out” countries whose policies were at variance with theirs.
But thanks to the determined resistance in Iraq, post American occupation, and the revival of the Taliban in Afghanistan, both weakening Bush politically at home given the upcoming 2004 Presidential Elections, and isolating America abroad, a partial reversal of some of the more aggressive US policies is in sight, beginning with the burial of the Axis of Evil. Some examples:
Bush's most important political advisor, Karl Rove, has proclaimed that “no more wars” are planned by the Bush Administration till the end of its first term in November 2004;
US Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage, told the American Congress that “regime change in Iran” was no longer an American policy objective;
Accepting a long-standing demand by Pyongyang, the United States has agreed to give a commitment in writing not to attack and invade North Korea in return for a quid pro quo that the North Koreans will give up their nuclear programme;
The US is no longer insisting on taking the case of Iran's nuclear programme to the UN Security Council after the European Union signed a separate accord with Iran last month, despite Washington's opposition, thereby giving Iran broad trade and economic benefits in return for UN inspections.
In return for America's policy reversal on the Axis of Evil, North Korea has agreed 'in principle' to resume the six-nation nuclear talks which are likely next month and Iran has agreed to recognise the US-established Iraq Governing Council, whose President, Jalal Talabani, was officially welcomed in Tehran last week.
It is clear that the US foreign policy and its vast military machine are unable to fight on multiple fronts, and the events of the past few months seem to have been a sobering experience for the Pentagon hawks, who were pushing for an imperial and interventionist approach in global affairs.
Backed off
Even on Palestine, the US-Israeli endeavour for regime change – replacing Yasser Arafat, with somebody pliable – failed, while on Kashmir, the incoming American Ambassador to India, David Mulford, told the American Congress that the US role would not be that of “manager, mediator or referee”. So on both issues – Palestine and Kashmir – the US has backed off from the pro-active diplomacy that it was keen to engage on in 2002.
The US needs Iran to stabilise Iraq and Pakistan to stabilise Afghanistan. Notwithstanding US posturing to the contrary, policy towards both Iran and Pakistan is premised on a vital need to secure their cooperation for cleaning up the mess in both countries the US went to war with, given the June 2004 deadline for returning Iraq to its sovereignty and elections in Afghanistan.
Instead of the US taking the war to the terrorists, as Bush had vowed, the terrorists are bringing the war to the US and its allies in the Muslim world, evident from the tragic acts in Turkey and Saudi Arabia. And what of the Bush vow, immediately after 9/11, to track down Osama bin Laden “dead or alive”?
On November 21, the Vice Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Peter Pace, told reporters in Kabul that Osama was “out of the picture” and “his capture is not essential to winning the war on terror.”
The writer is a former Minister of Information and is a member of Pakistan's Upper House, the Senate. He can be contacted at [email protected]
