Unbound Turkey: A Rising Regional Powerbroker

Forecast International, NEWTOWN, Conn: With its large military, burgeoning economy, and pivotal location as a bridge between two continents, Turkey has emerged as a crucial player involving regional geopolitics in both the Caspian Basin and the greater Middle East. As detailed in its most recent “Turkey Military Market Overview,” Forecast International anticipates that Ankara’s growing role as a regional powerbroker will be strengthened in coming years as its geopolitical bandwidth expands eastward. 
 
Turkey’s multiple strengths – including its sizeable population, growing economy, strategic geographic position, and well-equipped armed forces (second-largest in the NATO Alliance) – serve to cement it as both an anchor against regional instability and as a nation with a significant role to play in Near East power politics. Although its long-standing mission statement has been incorporation with the West, in recent years the country has tilted its foreign policy focus towards its historical backyard of the Middle East and has played upon shared ethnic and cultural backgrounds with several energy-rich former Soviet republics in Central Asia. 
 
“Turkey has shifted from being an internally focused, Western-aspiring nation, relying upon U.S.-NATO security guarantees against the threat of Soviet aggrandizement, to one realizing its ability to exert its influence eastward,” said Forecast International Europe/Middle East Analyst Dan Darling. 
 
Two key events have altered Turkey’s foreign policy focus in the past two decades: the collapse of the Soviet Union and the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. The first relieved pressure on Turkey’s north and freed it to reposition its security focus; the second created strains within its traditionally close relationship with Washington over the possibility of an independent Kurdish state being carved out of the fragments of a splintered, post-Saddam Iraq. With a significant Kurdish population of around 20 percent and ongoing battles with the outlawed militant grouping known as the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), Turkey is wary of a Kurdish state emerging on its southeastern border and acting as inspiration to minority separatist sentiments. 
 
Battling the PKK has become the principal security priority for Ankara, as relations with archrival (and fellow NATO Alliance member) Greece have improved enough in recent years to allow military attention to swing from Turkey’s western to its eastern borders. But Turkey’s sole focus hasn’t rested upon the threat of an independent Kurdistan; instead, the country has worked at becoming a diplomatic shareholder in the Middle East. Bilateral relations with regional competitors Syria and Iran have improved in recent years, due to shared concerns over Kurdish separatism, and, in the case of Iran, converging energy interests. 
 
“Quite simply, Turkey is seeking ways to diversify its energy sources from dependence upon Russia, while simultaneously increasing its clout as a central transit point for European supplies,” Darling said. “And with Azerbaijan onboard and Turkmenistan in the mix, Iran provides another logical option.” 
 
Yet despite the improved atmosphere between Ankara and Tehran, Turkey is also wary of a nuclear Iran upsetting the fragile regional power balance and has embarked on a competition for the supply of four to five batteries of Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) systems known as the Turkish Long-Range Air and Missile Defense Systems (or T-LORAMIDS). Turkish attention upon retaining its defensive edge does not end there, either. Turkey – which has had economic growth of over 5 percent annually since 2002 – seeks to ensure its strategic lordship over regional rivals and as such, remains a significant importer of sophisticated military hardware. 
 
Turkish defense expenditure in 2008 is set to reach $11.39 billion (2.21 percent of estimated GDP), and it is believed nearly half of this total to be ring-fenced for major arms procurement programs. The Turkish armed forces are set to embark on a broad modernization process that will see several major procurement platforms undertaken, including the planned purchase of 100 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters over the next 10 to 15 years. 
 
The primary focus of the Turkish procurement arm, the Turkish Defense Industries Undersecretariat (SSM), has been to expand and improve the country’s domestic defense-technological industrial base. A chief means of doing this has been through the contractual inclusion of significant offsets and technology transfers for Turkish industry where acquisition projects are concerned. Recent contracts awarded to South Korean firms for the basic jet trainer and new-generation main battle tank are examples of this approach. 
 
“Because of its unstable neighborhood and the advancing scope of its strategic interests, Turkey will remain a significant shopper on the global defense market,” Darling added. “While the goal of the SSM is to eventually achieve self-supply for 50 percent of Turkish armed forces acquisitions, the present reality is that this remains a future vision. In the meantime, with the U.S. no longer regarded by Ankara as the sole-source for its defense hardware, the market for those foreign firms willing to meet the SSMs contractual demands remains strong.”  
 
Forecast International, Inc., is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide.