, NEWTOWN: “Raytheon may have a lead in this market, but MBDA is not just going to roll over and die,” said Larry Dickerson, Missile Analyst for Forecast International. “These companies are nearing a statistical dead heat, with billions of dollars' worth of future contracts up for grabs,” Dickerson said.
The market for air-to-air missiles will be worth $16.1 billion over the next 10 years. “Raytheon leads this market, thanks to the sales performance of the AIM-9 Sidewinder and AIM-120 AMRAAM, and the popularity of U.S.-built fighter aircraft in general,” said Dickerson. Over 53,000 air-to-air missiles will be built between now and 2016.
Raytheon expects to earn $4.6 billion from sales of its air-to-air missiles, followed by MBDA with $3.8 billion in production. MBDA produces the MICA and ASRAAM and will introduce the Meteor in the future. MBDA's Meteor is the company's challenger to AMRAAM's dominance of the medium-range air-to-air missile segment.
“MBDA faces a competitor that's receiving high domestic orders for its product,” Dickerson said. “However, sales to the Middle East could help MBDA close the gap with Raytheon,” he added.
Meanwhile, Raytheon is protecting its edge by introducing new versions of the AIM-120 to maintain its market share.
Together, Raytheon and MBDA account for 51 percent of all sales in the air-to-air missile market. If certain non-competitive firms, such as those located in China and Japan, are eliminated from the rankings, the market share of these firms jumps to 66 percent.
Both Raytheon and MBDA have a tremendous sales advantage, faced with little competition in the world market from countries not seeking to sell beyond their borders. “The vast majority of air-to-air missiles produced by companies outside North America and Europe are not exported,” said Dickerson. “Chinese, Japanese, Taiwanese, and Brazilian air-to-air missiles are mostly sold to their own governments. Israel is the only exception.”
Forecast International, Inc., is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide.
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