United Press International,
WASHINGTON: Many Russians maintain two strong beliefs about their country's role in the world. First, they are absolutely convinced that, despite everything that has happened, Russia not only should be a great power, but is one. Second, they fear that unless Russia is a great power, it will fall apart. They do not see any possibilities for Russia between these two extremes.
Russians who want their country to be a great power advance several arguments as to why it will be one again or even still is one: Russia was a great power in the past, it is the world's largest country, it possesses enormous wealth in the form of petroleum and other natural resources, and last but not least, it has a large army and a sizable nuclear arsenal.
None of these arguments, however, can withstand critical examination. Just because a country was once a great power does not mean that it can be one again. Many countries in the world were once great powers but are no longer so.
A country's geographical relative size compared to others does not determine whether it is a great power either. If it did, Canada would be more powerful than the U.S. Population size and economic strength are far more important. Russia, with a 2005 population of 143 million, is currently the world's eighth most populous country — after (in order of population size) China, India, the U.S., Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. These last four are clearly not great powers, and may never be.
More importantly, Russia's population is expected to decline to 110.5 million by 2050, according to projections made by the Population Reference Bureau. Other countries, by contrast, are expected to grow over the next 45 years with Russia no longer being in the top ten by then. Since great power is a measure of relative strength vis-
