Asia Times, In its October 11-12 weekend editions, the Los Angeles Times – with much fanfare – carried a 16-month old story: that Israel had modified three diesel submarines acquired from Germany and US-supplied Harpoon-type cruise missiles to give it a sea-based nuclear attack force. The story was duly picked up by the German magazine Der Spiegel, which amplified it with its own deep-throat intelligence information that two months ago the Israeli foreign intelligence service Mossad had been tasked to work out plans to “simultaneously and completely” destroy Iranian nuclear installations in a grander-scale repeat of the 1981 destruction of the Iraqi Osirak nuclear reactor.
To round things out, on October 14, the LA Times carried an editorial saying that the Israeli nuclear-capable subs program constitutes “a dangerous step”, “is a hostile move aimed at intimidating Israel's neighbors,” but “won't deter countries such as Iran from developing their own weapons; instead it will only encourage them to move ahead.”
So, what's going on here? Another black eye for Israel, found out again pursuing aggressive arms escalation? Reckless endangerment of the Middle East peace process (what peace process, exactly)? Not hardly. But I'll get to that. First, some relevant publishing history and facts on the Israeli nuclear-armed subs.
On June 15, 2002, the Washington Post published a page 1 article by Walter Pincus titled “Israel Has Sub-Based Atomic Arms Capability.” It read in part: “Israel has acquired three diesel submarines that it is arming with newly designed cruise missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, according to former Pentagon and State Department officials, potentially giving Israel a triad of land, sea and air-based nuclear weapons for the first time. The US Navy monitored Israeli testing of a new cruise missile from a submarine two years ago off Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean, according to former Pentagon officials. A book published this week by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace reported that Israel was attempting to arm its diesel submarines with nuclear cruise missiles. 'Probably the most important nuclear-related development in Israel is the formation of its sea-based nuclear arm', wrote Joseph Cirincione, director of the Carnegie Endowment's nonproliferation project and a former staff member of the House Armed Services Committee who served as chief author of the book.”
What's new then in the LA Times and Der Spiegel reports? Pretty much exactly nothing – except for the intriguing verbatim (!) Spiegel quote from an Ariel Sharon cabinet order to the Mossad. Congratulations, colleagues! That's quite an astonishing feat in investigative journalism.
Many of Israel's land-based deterrent capabilities are within reach of short-range missiles that could be fired from Lebanon and Syria. All are within reach of medium-range missiles from Iran. Most of Israel's military installations are under threat from potential terrorist sabotage. Hence, that Israel should have sought and – when the opportunity arose – acquired a more secure sea-based deterrent force (Dolphin-class subs and nuclear-capable cruise missiles) is hardly surprising. Details on this force, its purpose and capabilities, are readily available on dozens of websites, eg, the Israeli site http://www.dolphin.org.il/dolphins/ or the site of the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).
The Israeli site on the Dolphin class (based on the most advanced German Type 212 boat) states among other things, “While the subs are likely more important as a nuclear deterrent to land-based attacks, the Dolphin submarines offer Israel superior naval capabilities to its neighbors as well.” The FAS states, “It is generally agreed that these [three Dolphin class] submarines are outfitted with six 533-millimeter torpedo tubes suitable for the 21-inch torpedoes that are normally used on most submarines … Some reports suggest that the submarines have a total of 10 torpedo tubes – six 533-millimeter and four 650-millimeter … The four larger 25.5 inch diameter torpedo tubes could be used to launch a long-range nuclear-capable submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM). According to some reports the submarines may be capable of carrying nuclear-armed Popeye turbo cruise missiles, with a goal of deterring an enemy from trying to take out its [Israel's] nuclear weapons with a surprise attack. Under a system of rotation, two of the vessels would remain at sea: one in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, the other in the Mediterranean. A third would remain on standby.”
Whether Israeli 200 kilogram nuclear warheads containing 6 kilograms of plutonium are mounted on longer-range Israeli-developed Popeyes (up to 1,500 kilometers) or shorter-range, advanced/modified US Harpoon SLAM (stand-off land attack) missiles is not known.
On January 15, 1991 the Gulf War broke out and the next day Israel experienced for the first time long distance ballistic missile attacks on its civilian population. The main threat was the possibility that Iraqi chemical warheads developed with support of German companies would be used. As a result, the German government offered humanitarian and military support. An Israeli delegation was sent to Germany and late at night on January 30 then-chancellor Helmut Kohl approved an assistance package that included two Dolphin-class submarines. The two, named “Dolphin” and “Leviathan”, with a construction price of $230 million each, were donated by Germany and delivered in 1999. A third, “T'kuma” (Revival), was jointly financed and delivered in 2000. Two additional Dolphins have been ordered by Israel recently.
The military logic of Israel's acquisition of a sea-based deterrent is straightforward. As compelling was the logic of the 1981 pre-emptive destruction of Iraq's French-built Osirak nuclear reactor before it could produce nuclear-weapons material. Now Der Spiegel has “revealed” the existence of an Israeli cabinet order for the drawing up of plans for the destruction of Iranian nuclear installations. Reportedly, the order was given two months ago. This is laughable. Israel has known for years that Iran is working on nuclear programs with potential weapons applications. Uranium enrichment to weapons-grade quality is in advanced stages. Contingency plans for the destruction of relevant sites should international pressure fail to dissuade Iran from weapons-applications work will have been made long ago and kept properly updated.
So, why all the fuss at this point? I suspect Aluf Benn of Israel's Haaretz newspaper has the right take on that. A week ago, he wrote, “Heading off Iran's attempt to attain nuclear capability is one of the Mossad's main missions, and the foreign media is one of the most important instruments utilized in this effort. Mossad agents supply foreign journalists with information about Iran's nuclear efforts; such foreign reports, the Mossad expects, support the international campaign to thwart Iran's nuclear weapons program. Sometimes, the foreign media are used to deliver deterrence-oriented messages about Israel's capabilities and intentions.”
So much for the investigative prowess of our LA Times and Der Spiegel colleagues.
