If the premise is that a restriction on exporting insulin to the US from Europe would have a negative impact, then I would agree. It would not, IMO, be a 'catastrophic' impact though.
However, the assertions as well as the sources provided fail to support claims of a catastrophic impact, largely due to either the source being incorrect, or the data provided not actually meaning what one appears to think and/or the data being incomplete.
Take the
linked Al Jazeera article specifically this quoted section, which was also repeated in a captioned image;
Now if one takes a look at a US's
CDC page on national diabetes statistics posted in 2024 with estimates from 2021, approx. 38.4 mil. people of all ages in the US had diabetes. That tracks with the first part of the Al Jazeera article. Where the article went seriously wrong though is that most diabetics are not insulin dependent, having non-insulin dependent Type 2 diabetes, rather than being either Type 1 diabetes, or long-term Type 2 diabetics that have become insulin dependent. Basically the Al Jazeera article asserted that all diabetics in the US are dependent on insulin, which is absolutely false if one is talking about external sources. If one is talking about internal sources, then everyone, diabetics and non-diabetics alike, are all insulin dependent, it is just that the vast majority of people produce enough insulin within their own bodies for their needs. A failure of getting such a basic fact correct then calls into question everything else in the article itself.
BTW similar supporting statistics are also available from the American Diabetes Association, which can be found
here.
As for the data on US insulin imports from 2023... IMO that also does not mean what one seems to think, for a few different reasons.
There is this
World Bank table showing US insulin exports to the world, also from 2023. Basically, insulin as well as precursors and components for insulin are traded back and forth between the US and Europe, with the US being a net importer (i.e. the value of US insulin exports was exceeded by the value of insulin imports). What the tables do not really provide information on is what degree different insulin-producing countries are dependent on imports of materials to produce insulin or where they are dependent on.
What the articles also do not address is what capacity exists in the US to increase domestic production of insulin as well as to develop alternate sources for insulin precursors and components.
To recap the discussion so far: Yes, Europe could take steps to disrupt insulin supplies to the US, which would likely cause scarcity, price surges and hardships for those in the US who are dependent on insulin. However, only a small percentage of the US population would be really impacted by that, about 2.5%, and alternate sources exist and could be further developed or re-established. Further, the US also has the potential to cause disruptions to insulin supplies and production within Europe, which would likely negatively impact global insulin production and supplies.
