This to me would be a much more sensible option for China to pursue. It would still a difficult task but IMO it would be more achievable than a successful invasion.
Cheers
Is China capable of crippling US CSF's in Chinese ses?
- Thread starter Superbug
- Start date
- Status
Cheers
Nice try but it still would not work. Do you think the US would sit still and allow you to basically starve 23 million people? What do you think would happen to Chinese rice paddies? All of China's external trade would stop since they would be blockaded. All of her coastal cities would be fair game for B2s and cruise missile strikes.
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
Ok, need to go over a few things here...
Goldenpanda, how many troops do you expect the PRC to need in order to gain control of Taiwan? Part of the idea behind trying to determine the number of troops was to then, based off that estimate, make estimates on force & logistics requirements to achieve the estimated number. For instance, if the PRC manages to gain air/sea control, and even manages to land troops (say all 250 troops * 25 vessels =6,250 troops) the PRC force would not be able to take control of Taiwan, there just wouldn't be enough personnel to do so. It then becomes a question of the total# of personnel and equipment needed to be moved by the PRC to Taiwan, which would be subject to potential attack while en route. The question of whether the PRC could take Taiwan, and what the cost might be, is an arrangement of complex variables, which interact and effect each other.
With regards to your first and last points. Yes, an army is not eager to destroy their own homeland, however, a defender is likely to be fair more motivated in protecting their home and family than an attacker.
Given the small size of Taiwan, yes the Taiwanese don't have much strategic depth to fall back on, but there also isn't a great deal of room for the PRC to maneuver in. Not to mention that by constricting the size, it could potentially allow Taiwanese forces from different areas to support and/or re-deploy more easily than if the area was larger.
Also, what in the PLA combat history supports an assertion that it will fight a modern engagement better/harder than Taiwan? Comparing Taiwan vs. PRC to Netherlands vs. Third Reich is hardly a close comparison. The Dutch didn't have a large military relative to overall population. There wasn't a defensive terrain advantage for the Dutch, which is why Germany invaded the Low Countries, so it could launch an attack on France through the Belgium border. Also the Germans had built up their armed forces to be both better quantitatively and quality-wise than the Dutch.
As for the PRC having better equipment than Taiwan, that is open to question. There isn't a doubt that there is more PRC equipment than Taiwan, but it is questionable whether the quality of what the PRC has is better and also how much the PRC would actually be able to use against Taiwan.
-Cheers
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
What method would this be accomplished? Use of PGMs, special forces insertions or fifth columns? Also, what would the timeframe be to achieving this kind of interuption or disruption?
I can see how this could easily transition from something covert, into overt operations that US and/or other forces might be inclined to intervene in. Similarly, depending on the covert nature of the operations, it could be branded the work of "terrorists" not unlike the IRA bombing campaign or the actions of some "Red" brigade militant groups operating in Western Europe during the Cold War. The fallout from something like this happening could be interesting...
-Cheers
It would be good in a world where China was the dominant world power able to generally influence/intimidate other nations and defend against any conventional attack. Of course we don't live in that world. In the real world, such a Chinese stunt would be viewed as an unprovoked barbaric attack on a much weaker nation. Further, it would infuriate the Japanese, Australia, probably South Koreans and most importantly Americans. Even if no direct military intervention was to occur. The resulting economic sanctions would utterly destroy the PRC economically.
If ANY of the neighboring regional powers or the USA decided to get involved militarily. Any of them individually or a combination could cut off the PRC SLOC. Some of them could directly retaliate on the mainland itself. There are just too many military options to cover them all. But none favor a PRC outcome. A bombardment of Taiwan and severing of its communications infrastructure would have to be IMMEDIATELY exploited to have a lasting effect. Otherwise the PRC loses strategic surprise and Taiwans allies would assemble a massive force task organized for counter offensive operations and MOOTW.
Hypothetically speaking lets assume the USA/Allies decided that escalation wasn't in anyones interest but also decided that Taiwan should remain free. Oil ports that supply the PRC could be cut off diplomatically and Naval /Air assets could enforce this out at sea turning back shipping bound for China. USAF fighter squadrons could establish "no-fly-zones" over Taiwan and the Straight except for PRC maritime waters with the USN and strategic bombers acting as a mobile reserve ready to strike an overwhelming blow on order. Meanwhile, Patriot, THAAD, AEGIS and F-15/22 missile defenses could significantly reduce PRC BM/bomber effectiveness over Taiwan. ROE could limit hard kills to BM's/CM's only while EW assets could be brought to bear against the full spectrum of PRC targets. International aid would also pour into Taiwan. While all of this is going on the Taiwanese acting in legitimate self defense, could retaliate on the PRC militarily. The only way out of this for the PRC would be to dramatically escalate its attack and face the consequences of those actions in a degraded state due to attrition and after telegraphing its strategy and against fully alerted defenses. It's not hard to see this strategy as a huge failure.
It all sounds nice on paper, but the reality is that this is beyond the PRC's means to do at this time. For a very long time to come Taiwan's fate is Taiwan's to decide I'm afraid. If the PRC really wants Taiwan back anytime soon, that battle needs to be fought in the hearts and minds of the Taiwanese and not a battlefield where PRC defeat is almost a given.
DA
Grand Danois
Entertainer
You're right that I was assuming that the PLANAF/PLAAF had subdued the ROCAF and the ROC ASMs prior to any landing.
I was hinting that PLAN might be think that a LCAC is a much better tool for doing an amphib landing than amphib tanks. Hence the link to a LCAC equipped LHD.
But if you think their path can be blocked easily blocked then they may not have merit after all.
I thought your post set out the position very well DA and the above statement is, IMO, the key to resolving the Taiwan issue.
I haven't yet read any substantiated evidence that the PRC is capable of defeating the USN CSFs and establishing the air superiority that would be necessary to achieve its One China objective by military means. Of course the PRC would be able to inflict enormous losses but the risks to China's economy and the wellbeing of its people would surely prevent any responsible PRC leadership from taking this course of action.
As China's military and economic strength continues to grow I think the day will eventually come when both the PRC and Taiwan will see unification as something that will benefit them both.
Cheers
Grand Danois
Entertainer
Besides the quasiballistic Iskander, IR has so far not been used for image correlation on ballistic missiles. Why is that? IR is good for ASAT and when used on a warhead (kill vehicle) that seperates from the missile body. You could use radar on such a seperating warhead. But then we're not talking the D-11/DF-15 which is the issue here. However the topographic data needed for that kind of accuracy is unlikely to be available, not not impossible (there is a reason to why the SRTM data was released as DTED-1, as it exclude the use for cruise missile TERCOM and BM ditto. I does facilitate use for Sat Nav guided bombs and can be used as a proxy elevation for Beidou-1 style nav, though. A realisation I just had
).I'm talking about use against tactical targets on the ground, not anti-shipping, which is a another discussion.
Have export of any of these systems been contemplated? Downgraded versions? Are there other reasons to them not being exported, like sensitivity issues or that all the output is to be absorbed by the PLA (-N/AF)?
Iran is effectively being embargoed by half the world, so they will have to do with what is being offered, the baseline is very low. Even then they apparently were not interested in the downgraded platform. Chinese ASM's do meet the baseline in their lesser versions, though.
Last edited:
goldenpanda
New Member
I don't know why you have so much problem with face, I thought it was chinese thing? You had to evacuate 100k soldiers from Putnam alone. 200k in november 1950 agrees with your own military history. We left 35k american and 650k south korean dead. we lost 140k killed out of more than 2 million who served.
we owned you, how ever you want to play the numbers.
goldenpanda
New Member
Just about everything? We kicked their ass during civil war, conquered North Korea from USA, beat India and Vietnam, all while Taiwanese sat on their island licking themselves. What suggests we WOULDN'T fighter better? Saying modern war is different is very bad excuse. It's just wishful thinking+ignorance on west's part to think PLA somehow couldn't handle modern weapons. We flew Mig15's just fine with pilots that didn't even go to high school. The west misreads us because you're always bombastic (see Thumper etc), while PLA likes to examine its faults.
M48 is no match to Type 99 no matter how much you upgrade. PLA has all kinds of improved infantry equipment such as Type 95 rifle, kevlar armour and helmets, 120mm antitank rockets, IFV's. Our SP artillery is also better if we can put them to use. All the best stuff will be thrown into the beach head that's what Taiwan will be facing. If we secure the beachhead, move up heavy armor, any breakthrough will cause unrecoverable collapse to their army, like what happened to the south vietnamese.
the 6000 troops is per transport. My estimate was 2 brigades a day, NOT counting the 50 medium ships. That seems more than enough to expand from the beachhead
Schumacher
New Member
There have been numerous instances of 'unprovoked barbaric attack on a much weaker nation' in recent history, no prize though for guessing some of the instances, and in very few of the instances were the perpetrators economically sanctioned let alone militarilly punished.
Infuriate Americans ? I'd think not nearly as infuriating to them as they'd feel in the event of any US military response starting to go wrong.
As for economic sanctions, there was the economic sanctions in 1989-90. It crumbled a few years later. So you think any economic sanctions now will 'utterly destroy' PRC's economy ?
You're right however that the best way is to win the hearts of the Taiwanese. Fortunately, PRC is doing this coupled with pressure on the Chen government. And PRC knows the most effective way to do this is actually to pressure the US to in turn pressure the Taiwan government.
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/news/archives/front/2007211/102267.htm
goldenpanda
New Member
The dutch had all those canals and prepared defenses. they had British+French+Belgians still in the game when they surrendered, basically to paratroops and fear of bombing. And they surrendered to a FOREIGN enemy who had already shown extreme aggression and brutality in Poland. Taiwanese will surrender only to an IDEA, one which is held by a significant portion of their population, MOST OF ALL their armed forces.
I'm worried about their artillery more than their infantry or armor. They have 3200 artillery pieces (not sure what's the caliber mix) to cover 1500 km of coastline, half of which faces China. Does anyone know what is their suitability to landings? I know their coastal terrain is much easier than Korea's. Their beaches don't look massively fortified, which suggests they have a LOT of it.
Danois your LCAC's could make a nice threat to the eastern coast, which is not as heavily defended.
Last edited:
goldenpanda
New Member
I think that's a good possibility since China has much bigger domestic orders than Sweden. Doesn't make sense to jeopardize your secrets for relatively small export orders.
The Blitzkrieg began on May 10 with an attack on France, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. The Dutch surrendered on May 15 and the British began evacuating Dunkirk on May 26. It all happened very quickly. My point was that none of the Netherlands’ allies were in a position to help the Dutch, unlike the situation with Taiwan where the USA and perhaps others would certainly be in a position to help. I could argue with you about the quality of the Dutch defences and whether the canals were a liability rather than an asset but I think that would be getting too much OT. Incidentally wouldn't the fact that an enemy had "shown extreme aggression and brutality" in another country make surrender a good idea once there was nothing but assured destruction (through bombing) to be gained by continued fighting? I spent some time last year in the Netherlands and Belgium and when I visited the Belgium city of Ypres (English Spelling) I was struck by the fact that whilst this city was famous for resisting German occupation in WW1 (the city was flattened in the process) the residents were pleased that Belgium surrendered on May 28 before the rebuilt city could be destroyed again.
I tend to agree with you that Taiwan will only surrender to an idea. The point I've made before is that I believe this may eventually come about, but I think this will be because of the two economies coming closer together and through negotiation, not as a result of military action.
Cheers
Last edited:
goldenpanda
New Member
nicely said
they keep talking about some big time revenge if we sink a carrier or something. I can see that's what they want though, since they killed 30 to 1 over 911 already.
[/quote]
As things stand, it's pretty tough to win them over towards active unification. We don't have the economic and cultural advantage of say, West Germany against East Germany. The best we could do is bolster their anti-independence sentiments.
There will have to be considerable plurality in the Beijing government to go beyond this. Actually if people take the time to understand CCP, they are not opposed to a more democratic system in principle. However in practice electoral governments have not been effective in many places like South Asia, Eastern Europe, Latin America, not least of all Iraq. Ideological westerners refuse to acknowledge any of this. This kind of attitude has already alienated Russia, who increasingly sees the West as hypocritical and pursuing their own power games.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/11/w...&en=3c3dfce117120d6d&ei=5094&partner=homepage
Grand Danois
Entertainer
Well, Germany invading Poland led to WW2 and the Japanese invasion of china led to US sanctions leaving the Japanese with the choice of discontinuing their war in China or having a go at the US.
Germany and Japan lost big time on that count.
Ozzy Blizzard
New Member
Mate, lets not start beating our chests and measuring how long it is just yet! You owned the UN in korea??? How, with light forces, human wave attacks against a suprised, demoralized and HEAVILY outnumbered enemy? And chinese forces only had sucsess while the shock of the initial assault and then the chinese were pushed back once UN forces on the peninsularwere reinforced. You think it was coincidence that the allied assault stopped at around the 38th paralell??? It wasnt because of chinise defences but a fear of escelation, bacically no none wanted to fight WW3 over korea. If your going to make massive generalizations like that, that are slightly offencive you'd better make sure you've got your facts streight.
By the way why is it that everytime someone states, most of the time rather rationally/logically/realistically, something that PROC cant do at the moment, like launch the largest amphibious operation in the history of armed conflict against a numerically large, well armed, fortified and determend enemy, with limited naval assets, for exapmle, you take it as some insult to your national pride. I'm Australian. You could tell me that the ADF doesn't have the capability to invade and occupy indonesia and i wouldn't be offended. You know why, because realisticly we dont. And thats ok. It doesnt lessen the pride and admiration i feel for the quality and bravery of my countries armed forces. I'm sorry to say buddy but PROC just doesn't have the capability to invade taiwan at the moment under just about any feasable senario. And thats ok too. I mean this would probably be the largestand definatly the most complex military operation in the history of warfare, and you would have to overcome some truely massive problems, the formost one being logistics, not to mention the inherent problems of amphibious operations, especially on this scale and the involvment of taiwans allies, which do include the likes of the US, probably Japan, South Korea and Australia. Militarily that is beyond daunting not to mention economically. Its no dishonnor or discrace to say that PROC cant do the all but impossible with the tools it has. Australia couldn't defeat china all by itself. Thats the reality of the situation and if you said that i wouldn't have stated an argument with you, stating how good Aussie troops were and that Wedgetails, F35's and JORN would blow you guys out of the sky and sink the entire PLAN, cus as good as aussie troops, Wedgetails, F35's and JORN are that just aint possible. So lets not destroy this thread which is a really interesting one to read, so please think of the rest of us when you start to get in a nationalistic and unrealistic argument. Please
Schumacher
New Member
Good, now can you name some invasions that don't lead to international sanctions ? I know it's hard, but give it a try.
Grand Danois
Entertainer
Anyone Europe or the US have issued de facto security guarantees for or have direct interest in?
Pretty hard actually.
- Status