Indonesian Aero News

[ComradeVortex]

According to rumour, allegedly 2 Su-35s are already under assembly in Indonesia. 1 got disassembled in the transport, and another 3 will come before 5 October.

Take this rumour with mountain of salt.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

According to rumour, allegedly 2 Su-35s are already under assembly in Indonesia. 1 got disassembled in the transport, and another 3 will come before 5 October.

Take this rumour with mountain of salt.

Yes, lets take this rumour with a lake full of salt. Such large acquisitions will be proudly announced before the first negotiations even started.

And until today there are no reports from reliable sources that confirm this rumour.

 

[Ananda]

The rumours base on:

1. The need to augment TNI-AU sooner,
2. Lower cost acquisition compare to Western Fighters.

This is also base on the rumour idea basically have two seperate Air Force (especially Fighters) for Western Indonesia and Eastern Indonesia.

• Western Indonesia will got Rafale, KF-21 (replacing F-16) as 4.5 gen MRCA and later on KAAN as 5th gen on next decade.
• Eastern Indonesia will got Su-35 (replacing older Flankers), J-10B/CE as 4.5 gen MRCA and later on Su-57 as 5th gen on next decade.

This's to concentrate logistics and maintenance western base assets and non western base assets on area. Seperate maintenance and training will also concentrate on area. This in line with TNI and MinDef thinking to make Fighters operation more imune on Geopolitical changes. It is also not completely ITAR Free as KF-21 still use large US components and also potentially KAAN.

As for rumours of 2-3 Su-35 already assemble in Hassanudin AB agree it has to be taken by huge grain of salt, as the money trails from Finance Guys not being tracked so far. I suspect it could be Su-27SKM that being refurbished in Belarus being send now. Yes some acquisition like Mi-8, Mi-17 and Ka-32 come bit silently. However a squadron of Su-35 is another story. Some argue the financing come from 3rd parties in Gulf FI. Still it has to be properly budgeted by Finance Guys for repayment scheme.

Add:
An Enthusiats already very sure on the rumours, and circulate AI rendering. Wondering how let down those fan boys if the rumours not happening. Reasonable good image in my opinion.

 

[ComradeVortex]

I suspect it could be Su-27SKM that being refurbished in Belarus being send now.

Also what I was thinking about. I initially thought we just sticked to making new paintjob and new Astra missiles for Flanker. But I guess now we're making domestic MRO for these Legacy Flankers (spare parts from abroad), especially with the "incident" involving Su-30 at Hasanuddin.

 

[Ananda]

I guess now we're making domestic MRO for these Legacy Flankers (spare parts from abroad), especially with the "incident" involving Su-30 at Hasanuddin.

There are photos on new service facility in Hassanudin AB that being build for Flankers MRO. It should be partner out with Belarusia MRO, but some rumours talk on the deal is a front for direct deal with Rosoboron to avoid CAATSA. However how big MRO that can be done in Hassanudin and which MRO still needed to be done in Belarus, still not yet publicly disclose.

There's talk that Su-30 Mk2 already conduct MRO in Hassanudin, while Su-27 still send to Belarus for MRO. This is why I suspect the rumour of Su-35 being unload in Hassanuddin is Su-27 that being returned from Belarus.

 

[Ananda]

4 IL-78-MK-90A now seems gaining momentum on the rumours. Personally as I have said on previous post, IL-78-MK-90A is more likely to happen compare to those talk of Su-35 and Su-57.

1. This type already in the TNI-AU study for long range turbofan transport and tankers, altough coming to number 3 after KC-46 and A330MRTT.
2. The amount of contract is less then 1 sq Su-35, thus more likely can be finance either by 3rd parties or domestic line.
3. Could be less controversional geopolitically then taking Su-35 while at same time cancelling F-15EX.
4. It is proven by India can be use not only Flankers but also Rafale.

So if this is taken it will be on the cost of A330MRTT, rather then A400M second batch. IL-78 also like A400M and C-130 more workable on less prepare runway relative to A330MRTT. However TNI-AU study shown MRO for A330MRTT will be more available in Indonesia as Garuda MRO already familiar with A330.

In short if this being taken then the cause in my opinion are the procurement cost of IL-78 more fitting with the budget, and secondly IL-78 has better salesman/brokerage then A330 MRTT.

Note: Edit KC-46 instead KC-57.

 

[swerve]

4 IL-78-MK-90A now seems gaining momentum on the rumours. Personally as I have said on previous post, IL-78-MK-90A is more likely to happen compare to those talk of Su-35 and Su-57.

1. This type already in the TNI-AU study for long range turbofan transport and tankers, altough coming to number 3 after KC-57 and A330MRTT.

KC-57? Is that a typo?

 

[Ananda]

KC-57? Is that a typo?

Yes, should be KC-46, don't know why I'm thinking KC-57. Already night post. It lead TNI-AU study for long range turbofan tankers few years back. Alltough negotiation lobby seems pushing more A330 MRTT vs IL-78MK-90A.

This is the summary rating on all catagories of their studies. IL-78 is at the bottom results, loosing on nearly all catagories. So if it is winning means Rosoboron sales agent manage to do better lobby then Airbus sales agent. Something quite rare, as usually Airbus sales agent doing well lobby within Indonesia market.

 

[Ananda]

Photo of new batch of Mi-35 being circulate by Keris FB and other enthusiats in local forum.



Differ from current Mi-35P and shown more resemblances with Belarus Mi-35



Seems this is shown evidance that those new batch of Mi-35, Mi-17, and KA-35 being sources through Belarus. In fact the brokerage (E- Systen Sollution) known to have strong relations with Belarus. Lukashenko already meet Prabowo twice lately in Minsk and Jakarta, and defense industrial and MRO part of the agreement.

Wondering though if trend continue, how E-System Sollution will arrange IL-78MK-90A shipment from Belarus ? As this type so far only available from VVS production line.

 

[ComradeVortex]

 

[ComradeVortex]

Not sure if this is correct thread, but photo of Indonesian personnel in Belarus for training to operate Vostok 3D radar has surfaces. One of silent procurement. We have our first Counter Stealth Radar though.



Some specifications: It is a mobile air surveillance radar developed by the Belarusian KB Radar design bureau. 3D dual-band (VHF and S-band). Tracking distance is published to be 360 km, 250 targets automatic classify them into five categories.

 

[Ananda]

Add Vostok 3D specs:

“Vostok-3D” radar | bvps

“Vostok-3D” radar is designated for detection of aerial platforms, measurement of their range, azimuth, altitude and range rate, automatic target classification and transmission of data into an integrated control system. External appearance of automated work place of an operator Technical...

www.bvpservice.by

Just to add, this more appropriate at TNI-AD forum as the personel in training if not mistaken coming from TNI-AD. So this is different then overall network of GCI that being handle by Air Force/TNI-AU.

Will this mean BUK System procurement coming soon ? This is also shown Belarus + E-System Sollution lobby that getting more order rather then Rosoboron.

 

[ComradeVortex]

Just to add, this more appropriate at TNI-AD forum as the personel in training if not mistaken coming from TNI-AD. So this is different then overall network of GCI that being handle by Air Force/TNI-AU.

Thanks for the clarification.


One thing I'm worried about though is integration of the system.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Yes, should be KC-46, don't know why I'm thinking KC-57. Already night post. It lead TNI-AU study for long range turbofan tankers few years back. Alltough negotiation lobby seems pushing more A330 MRTT vs IL-78MK-90A.



This is the summary rating on all catagories of their studies. IL-78 is at the bottom results, loosing on nearly all catagories. So if it is winning means Rosoboron sales agent manage to do better lobby then Airbus sales agent. Something quite rare, as usually Airbus sales agent doing well lobby within Indonesia market.

This KC-46 vs A330MRRT tabel/overview just shows us how incompetent or corrupt the person is who made this.

Point 2
It is very clear and obvious that the A330MRRT wins this point, specially in Indonesia.

Point 3
In March 2015, the program cost to develop and procure KC-46 179 tankers was projected to total US$43,16 billion (~$55,6 billion in 2024) --> that's around $311 million for each aircraft, at least. But after many years of delays and setbacks, in 2026 the price for each KC-46 will be much higher, specially for an export customer without a 767/KC-46 infrastructure.

The Brazilian Air Force paid $ 80,9 million for two A330-200 from an airline (excluding costs for overhaul and converting). A similar acquisition between TNI-AU and Garuda Indonesia will be on a similar level.

Point 4
Service ceiling KC-46: 12.200 m
Service ceiling A330MRRT: 12.500 m

Point 5
Range KC-46: 11.830 km
Range A330MRRT: 16.100 km

Point 6
It's obvious that the A330MRRT also wins this one.

Point 7
Fuel capacity KC-46: 96.300 kg
Fuel capacity A330MRRT: 111.000 kg

Point 9
Over the years Airbus has shown more willingness for Transfer of Technology than Boeing.

Point 11
The runway requirements of the KC-46 and A330MRRT are not easily to be found on internet, but looking to the 767-200ER and A330-200, it is quite similar. So why the A330MRRT loose so many points here is unclear.

Thanks for the clarification.


One thing I'm worried about though is integration of the system.

You have a point, how about IFF? It is probably compatible with the Ka-32, Mi-17V5, Mi-35P and Su-27SKM/-30MK2, but how about other equipment?

 

[ComradeVortex]

New HUDs for Flankers. PT ESS and Belarus via UAE again.

According to Yudi Supriyono account, it's for:

Su-27SKM TS 2704
︀︀Su30MK2 TS 3006
︀︀Su-30MK2 TS 3010
︀︀Su-30MK2 TS 3011

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

A short video from GMF about the modernisation program of the C-130H.

 

[Ananda]

So why the A330MRRT loose so many points here is unclear.

During the time of study (2017-2018 and release to public by early 2019), Boeing lobby got upper hand with combo package of E-7 and KC-46. However the wind change again due to:

• Problem of KC-46,
• Airbus and GMF lobby,
• Prabowo factor.

Airbus bring GMF as shown all A330 MRTT MRO and some conversion job can be done by GMF as they are already certified. Airbus and Frenchie sales agent are quite sure they got it, as also due Prabowo factor. Especially after he choose A400M with tanker kit and have option for 2nd batch.

All of sudden the lobby from 3rd place IL-78MK regain momentum, and in serious contender to push down A330 MRTT from contention.



So seems now the Frenchie-Airbus sales campaign also talk how this not only can be use for cargo, tankers, personel transport but also easily configure for VIP. Trying to play to pschy of MinDef that want to have long range Presidential plane to augment current 737-BBJ, and reduce the need to lease Garuda 777.

So let's see how Belarus-Rosoboron Brokerage doing sales lobby war against Airbus-Frenchie Sales Agents. IL-78MK-90A vs A330 MRTT/MRTT+.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

During the time of study (2017-2018 and release to public by early 2019), Boeing lobby got upper hand with combo package of E-7 and KC-46. However the wind change again due to:

• Problem of KC-46,
• Airbus and GMF lobby,
• Prabowo factor.

Airbus bring GMF as shown all A330 MRTT MRO and some conversion job can be done by GMF as they are already certified. Airbus and Frenchie sales agent are quite sure they got it, as also due Prabowo factor. Especially after he choose A400M with tanker kit and have option for 2nd batch.

All of sudden the lobby from 3rd place IL-78MK regain momentum, and in serious contender to push down A330 MRTT from contention.

View attachment 55599

So seems now the Frenchie-Airbus sales campaign also talk how this not only can be use for cargo, tankers, personel transport but also easily configure for VIP. Trying to play to pschy of MinDef that want to have long range Presidential plane to augment current 737-BBJ, and reduce the need to lease Garuda 777.

So let's see how Belarus-Rosoboron Brokerage doing sales lobby war against Airbus-Frenchie Sales Agents. IL-78MK-90A vs A330 MRTT/MRTT+.

A TNI-AU transport fleet of NC212, CN235, C295, C-130B/H/J, 737-200/300/400/800, A400M and Falcon 8X is already diverse enough. Maybe some A330MRRTs converted from Garuda's A330-200 fleet is still more or less acceptable.

I am not a member of the Alman Helvas fanclub, but now suddenly ordering the Il-78MK-90A is as logic as the order of EMB-314 and M346, while we already have the KT-1B and T-50.

 

[Ananda]

Politics in Indonesia whether Domestics or Geopolitics is taking precedence over logistics and tech considerations. That's the rules and only Budget realities that can damper any procurement trend. On other way around budget realities will also work base on the priorities rules above.

Is not coincidence also this rumours spur of momentum for Chinese and Russian procurenent even Indian assets related to Indonesia membership in BRICS. At the same time Indonesia also still want to get in to OECD. Clearly Indonesia try to keep balance on its own path.

I used to think far fatched for TNI-AU to have 2 set of logistics foot print. However now tendencies to have at least Western based and Non Western based logistics base on area seems shown more and more potential to happen.

I already talk before the trend of potential Rafale and F-16 in Western Indonesia and Flankers and J-10 in Eastern Indonesia. Then look how the helicopters after all Bell, Airbus Helicopters and now AW, but they still continue build up Mi and Kamov. Cargo and Tankers so far still Western, however right now it is also possible to have both A400M and IL-78 as strategic transport and Tankers.

Not ideal, however is it incompetence (or corupt) planning or realities on politics or both ? For me personally, it is bit there and there, so both causes more likely. The politics driver plus Geopolitics rapid changes create haphazard or slapdash procurement planning. Is it incompetence or realism compromises ? Remain to be seen.