The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
The statements of RU officials, combined with troop dispositions is more then enough...
Maybe for you, not for me. I guess I am less gullible, I would rather see military plans than official statements.
Out of curiosity, what “troop dispositions” you are referring to and what is your military conclusion based on those dispositions?
Well, if you are waiting for Second-Rate-Stalin to whisper sweet plans into your ears, I suspect you will be sorely disappointed. Barring some sort of eavesdropping at the highest levels, we are all left to observe and analyze for intent. We are all internet G-2 shops here.

At the start of the war the RU advanced along many mutually-non-supporting axes in order to cover as much UKR as possible. RU continues to attack along all fronts (less BEL, but I suspect for once in his life The Potato finally made a wise decision). If the UKR military collapses, expect advances at all points, not just the Donbas.

You have claimed that nothing in this war surprises you. Why dont you give us your forecast ?

Claiming that RU doesnt want to advance faster...
Claiming? You read whatever you want to read.
This is not an English Grammar forum, but could you remind me since when “if” is a “claim”?
Your post 13830:

rsemmes: “If Russia has any intention of advancing faster.”

Your statement, not mine. You put yourself in a contrarian position to my statement about RU should be making faster advances.

You simply being a contrarian does not advance the discussion.


Talking about official statements and “The RU tank production (new + refurb) estimates are all over the map.” These statements: "Ukrainian officials have previously estimated that the manufacturer can produce approximately 60 to 70 T-90 tanks per year under ideal conditions”?
Those statements are indeed part of the “all over the map” point I made. We are not disagreeing here.

No forgetting at all, it wasnt the topic of the original question...
I disagree. If Ukrainian situation is worse than that of Russia, how bad, or not, Russian situation is, it's a lot less relevant; but Ukrainian situation is.
Beltrami2005’s statements in post 13813 talk about RU solely, and without mention of UKR issues.

So you can disagree with reality as much as you want, but it doesnt affect anything.

Since you feel so strongly about UKR demographics...
I wouldn't use the word “feel”, but I feel that I can say that it is “standard knowledge” the Ukrainian low birth rate, its deserters and the millions of Ukrainian living abroad. Don't you agree?
Why dont you present a claim, and back it up with some sort of reference, and we can decide ?

We are waiting.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Indeed there are parts of Europe that are deemed to dangerous to line on. In France the "Zone Rouge" was originally deemed to cover about 1200 km^2.


UKR will likely have similar areas for some time, although I would imagine will be somewhat easier to clean up.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
Why dont you present a claim
I am not in the department of "presenting claims", but I have been asking a few questions.
but it doesnt affect anything.
Completely disregarding what happens to one of the participants in a war affects everything.
We are not disagreeing here.
Actually we are, officials statements are mostly propaganda. Surprisingly, you do believe Russian official statements: "The statements of RU officials".

Wow!
So "troops dispositions" now, in 2026, is where those 120.000 Russians where going... In 2022!

Trying to come back to reality now... (Not that easy.)
"If it looks stupid but it works, it is not stupid." That is a military maxim. These Russian tactics, infiltration/attrition are working. Ukraine is at the receiving end, it depends on foreign money and weapons, it has 2.000.000 deserters, its energy sector is not "in the best shape" and Russia is advancing; slowly.
Does Russia wants to advance faster? I don't think so, that's why I expressed my uncertainty using "if". I also provided a reason, a weaker Ukrainian negotiating position before the end of the year.
Can Russia advance faster? Possibly. We have seen those opportunistic attacks and we read about those small armoured attacks. "If it's working, don't repair it". That's another military maxim.
Has Russia decided that this is the best option? That, I don't know, but I cannot see any real reason to change it either. Maybe Russia considers this the "cheapest" option.

does not advance the discussion.
With that, I have to agree. Sending your interpretation of my posts beyond the Tannhauser Gates, does not help.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
We have another sighting of captured western armored vehicles being used by Russian forces. Here we have a Bradley and an M113 in Pokrovsk. Note they've been repainted white, to match the snowy terrain.


Indeed there are parts of Europe that are deemed to dangerous to line on. In France the "Zone Rouge" was originally deemed to cover about 1200 km^2.


UKR will likely have similar areas for some time, although I would imagine will be somewhat easier to clean up.
It's already the case for some of the areas Russia took. For example places like Mar'inka, Ugledar, Artemovsk/Bakhmut are all examples. The difference is partly in size, these are more isolated areas rather than a large continuous area. It's also much easier to bulk remove land mines and UXO with modern technology. In fact it might be wiser to do cleanup before the area returns to nature masking the dangerous objects. I think the real test of whether areas end up cleaned up or not will be economic, and in large part demographic. If there is an economic need, or a population that lives there, then Russia and Ukraine will do the cleanup. If areas end up depopulated and with nothing of substantial economic value, then the area may remain empty for much longer periods of time. Avdeevka is actively being rebuilt and Popasnaya isn't because Russia is using Avdeevka to house population, and partly because of it's proximity to Donetsk city.
 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
As per Peskov, the energy ceasefire is to last until February 1. He also confirmed the reports that it was Trump who had asked Putin to pause strikes on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure due to humanitarian reasons as was reported by several outlets over the past couple of days.

Many people appear to be very confused today regarding the energy infrastructure ceasefire, for reasons unknown (to me). The speculation on social and in conventional media is that Putin told Trump he would abide by the week-long ceasefire, but Russia didn’t. Not sure where that is coming from. In my post quoted above, Peskov specifically reiterated that the agreement was made to last until Feb 1 (Sunday). People (including some people that I find to be very reasonable in general) talk about some dates that have nothing to do with anything. The official UA Air Force statements indicate that the last attack before yesterday’s took place on January 24 (see the dates of the consecutive posts) and they never skip a beat:



Everything else is garbage information. January 24 was the Saturday, either when or the day before the ceasefire agreement was made. Clearly, no? Trump says exactly that as well:



Zelensky talks nonsense by spinning what had happened and contradicts himself in one post, while confirming a few things to be true - the moratorium on strikes was to last one week, Russia adhered to the deal, there was an attack planned last Sunday (January 25), after the Abu Dhabi talks concluded, but did not take place due to the agreement between Trump and Putin.

He then, however, throws a contradiction by saying that the deal was to last until the next meeting (part of the false narrative creation I speculate about below). Well, the meeting was scheduled for Sunday, but it was delayed to Wednesday. Zelensky hinted that it was due to an upcoming strike on Iran (he said something like (from memory) “we feel that something is going to happen between the USA and Iran”). His full statement:



From his twitter: https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/2018713316315537917

Funny enough, with that tweet, he also confirmed that he intentionally lied a few days ago when he posted this:



Here, I am going to speculate. He posted that ^ because he knew that Russians are preparing another massive attack on Ukraine after the ceasefire runs out on Feb 1 (kind of obvious):



That previous misinformation tweet, about the “countdown beginning overnight”, was probably made after he found out the meeting was not taking place on the 1st (it was announced by him the day after the tweet), reaching out to the Americans for them to try and extend the end date of the deal, Russians refusing -> he makes the tweet to create the narrative (what we see in the media today). Next step in the creation process was his first tweet I cited above and the last paragraph in particular, where he expands on what he feels should have happened instead of the week agreed to (he was hoping or knew that the talks would be “constructive” and the ceasefire to be extended, hopefully past the cold snap). He then finalized the creation of the presumed reality by posting the following today:



Trump’s response I posted above, the awaiting didn’t take long.

The media sells the reality Zelensky creates:



What would have probably happened without the ceasefire is the planed attack on February 1 (we know it was planned per Zelensky himself, but also from the monitoring channels at the time) and another one (or two) during last week to finish off a good chunk of the remaining grid. The expectation of Russia not firing more missiles after the due date is rather dumb. Furthermore, the attack was not as large in relative terms, as it didn’t involve Black Sea assets, the number of drones didn’t reach the range of the new “massive” - 500, etc. It would not be unreasonable to assume that during this time Ukraine also received additional interceptors and got prepared as best as they could.

This is actually more or less exactly how a lot of the things that didn’t happen and weren’t even planned to happen, ie the fake narrative, get created.


While on his twitter, the humour part:

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Many people appear to be very confused today regarding the energy infrastructure ceasefire, for reasons unknown (to me). The speculation on social and in conventional media is that Putin told Trump he would abide by the week-long ceasefire, but Russia didn’t. Not sure where that is coming from. In my post quoted above, Peskov specifically reiterated that the agreement was made to last until Feb 1 (Sunday). People (including some people that I find to be very reasonable in general) talk about some dates that have nothing to do with anything. The official UA Air Force statements indicate that the last attack before yesterday’s took place on January 24 (see the dates of the consecutive posts) and they never skip a beat:



Everything else is garbage information. January 24 was the Saturday, either when or the day before the ceasefire agreement was made. Clearly, no? Trump says exactly that as well:



Zelensky talks nonsense by spinning what had happened and contradicts himself in one post, while confirming a few things to be true - the moratorium on strikes was to last one week, Russia adhered to the deal, there was an attack planned last Sunday (January 25), after the Abu Dhabi talks concluded, but did not take place due to the agreement between Trump and Putin.

He then, however, throws a contradiction by saying that the deal was to last until the next meeting (part of the false narrative creation I speculate about below). Well, the meeting was scheduled for Sunday, but it was delayed to Wednesday. Zelensky hinted that it was due to an upcoming strike on Iran (he said something like (from memory) “we feel that something is going to happen between the USA and Iran”). His full statement:



From his twitter: https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/2018713316315537917

Funny enough, with that tweet, he also confirmed that he intentionally lied a few days ago when he posted this:



Here, I am going to speculate. He posted that ^ because he knew that Russians are preparing another massive attack on Ukraine after the ceasefire runs out on Feb 1 (kind of obvious):



That previous misinformation tweet, about the “countdown beginning overnight”, was probably made after he found out the meeting was not taking place on the 1st (it was announced by him the day after the tweet), reaching out to the Americans for them to try and extend the end date of the deal, Russians refusing -> he makes the tweet to create the narrative (what we see in the media today). Next step in the creation process was his first tweet I cited above and the last paragraph in particular, where he expands on what he feels should have happened instead of the week agreed to (he was hoping or knew that the talks would be “constructive” and the ceasefire to be extended, hopefully past the cold snap). He then finalized the creation of the presumed reality by posting the following today:



Trump’s response I posted above, the awaiting didn’t take long.

The media sells the reality Zelensky creates:



What would have probably happened without the ceasefire is the planed attack on February 1 (we know it was planned per Zelensky himself, but also from the monitoring channels at the time) and another one (or two) during last week to finish off a good chunk of the remaining grid. The expectation of Russia not firing more missiles after the due date is rather dumb. Furthermore, the attack was not as large in relative terms, as it didn’t involve Black Sea assets, the number of drones didn’t reach the range of the new “massive” - 500, etc. It would not be unreasonable to assume that during this time Ukraine also received additional interceptors and got prepared as best as they could.

This is actually more or less exactly how a lot of the things that didn’t happen and weren’t even planned to happen, ie the fake narrative, get created.


While on his twitter, the humour part:

It's this kind of behavior that makes me think Russia shouldn't make any deal with Ukraine at this point in time. This fundamentally dishonest approach suggests that Ukraine would probably similarly twist the provisions of any peace deal, ignoring the parts they don't like. It's the same thing we saw with the Minsk Accords, where the sequence of measures was clearly spelled out, yet Ukraine ignored it and pretended it was all Russia's fault for not giving Ukraine everything under the later part of the agreements even while Ukraine openly refuses to implement the earlier parts. To me this behavior suggests that Zelensky is engaging in this negotiations charade purely to placate the US. Any deal made now isn't likely to last, or to be implemented as written.
 
It's this kind of behavior that makes me think Russia shouldn't make any deal with Ukraine at this point in time. This fundamentally dishonest approach suggests that Ukraine would probably similarly twist the provisions of any peace deal, ignoring the parts they don't like. It's the same thing we saw with the Minsk Accords, where the sequence of measures was clearly spelled out, yet Ukraine ignored it and pretended it was all Russia's fault for not giving Ukraine everything under the later part of the agreements even while Ukraine openly refuses to implement the earlier parts. To me this behavior suggests that Zelensky is engaging in this negotiations charade purely to placate the US. Any deal made now isn't likely to last, or to be implemented as written.
Is this meant as satire? You do know that Russia is the agressor who attacked Ukraine, murders ukrainian citizens, tortures ukrainian citizens?

I have greatest respect for the retraint behavior Ukraine shows.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Is this meant as satire? You do know that Russia is the agressor who attacked Ukraine, murders ukrainian citizens, tortures ukrainian citizens?

I have greatest respect for the retraint behavior Ukraine shows.
This is not meant as satire. It doesn't make sense for Russia, from a Russian standpoint, to sign a deal that won't be honored. And the signals I'm seeing from Ukraine suggest that if they end up signing something similar to the deal Trump has been talking about, that he allegedly agreed on with Putin at Anchorage, it's unlikely Ukraine will substantively honor the provisions of the deal. The Minsk Accords are a perfect example. They were supposed to end the conflict in the Donbas, but instead simply dragged it out for many years in a semi-frozen state. A repeat of that is highly undesirable for Russia from a strategic standpoint. It's better to fight it out for another year or two, or even three, but get a permanent solution to the current conflict one way or another. I'm not sure what you mean when you mention restraint. My post is referring to the blatantly dishonest attempt by Zelenski to color Russia as not abiding by the cessation of strikes on energy targets. Consider the intent of that statement. It's not aimed at Russia, Russia doesn't care. It's not aimed at EU partners, because they're wholly on board with Ukraine continuing the fight. They're aimed at the US to try and persuade Trump that Russia broke their promise to him. The end goal of something like that is clearly to derail the peace plan the US is pushing for, and try to make it so an upset US leadership resumes military support for Ukraine. This, to me, suggests that Ukraine isn't interested in the current peace deal and won't substantively carry it out, even if enough arm-twisting forces them to sign it. Hence from a Russian standpoint Ukraine can't be trusted.
 
This is not meant as satire. It doesn't make sense for Russia, from a Russian standpoint, to sign a deal that won't be honored. And the signals I'm seeing from Ukraine suggest that if they end up signing something similar to the deal Trump has been talking about, that he allegedly agreed on with Putin at Anchorage, it's unlikely Ukraine will substantively honor the provisions of the deal. The Minsk Accords are a perfect example. They were supposed to end the conflict in the Donbas, but instead simply dragged it out for many years in a semi-frozen state. A repeat of that is highly undesirable for Russia from a strategic standpoint. It's better to fight it out for another year or two, or even three, but get a permanent solution to the current conflict one way or another. I'm not sure what you mean when you mention restraint. My post is referring to the blatantly dishonest attempt by Zelenski to color Russia as not abiding by the cessation of strikes on energy targets. Consider the intent of that statement. It's not aimed at Russia, Russia doesn't care. It's not aimed at EU partners, because they're wholly on board with Ukraine continuing the fight. They're aimed at the US to try and persuade Trump that Russia broke their promise to him. The end goal of something like that is clearly to derail the peace plan the US is pushing for, and try to make it so an upset US leadership resumes military support for Ukraine. This, to me, suggests that Ukraine isn't interested in the current peace deal and won't substantively carry it out, even if enough arm-twisting forces them to sign it. Hence from a Russian standpoint Ukraine can't be trusted.
The unconditional surrender of germany made little sense for hitler either. What russia wants is irrelevant, since it is the agressor.

That said Russia and Putin by now should have noticed that USA / Trump are to weak to force a deal on Ukraine as long Europe doesnt agree to it. The current peace deal is unacceptable since it leaves Ukraine open for further russian attacks, sacrifices ukrainian citizens under russian tyranny and gives ukraine no security. For the european pov its better to continue fighting till, in optimal scenario Russia completly collapses into civil war and at best fractures or at least collapses economical.

Its russias core dilemma, its too weak to achieve its goal and it overestimated the influence of the US over europe.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The unconditional surrender of germany made little sense for hitler either. What russia wants is irrelevant, since it is the agressor.
Except it depends. Unconditional surrender for Germany was the product of a kind of military defeat that seems highly unlikely in this conflict.

That said Russia and Putin by now should have noticed that USA / Trump are to weak to force a deal on Ukraine as long Europe doesnt agree to it. The current peace deal is unacceptable since it leaves Ukraine open for further russian attacks, sacrifices ukrainian citizens under russian tyranny and gives ukraine no security.
It's not clear that it in fact gives Ukraine no security, some of the statements made suggest that it does include security guarantees from the west. Also don't forget the current deal leaves the road open to EU membership which comes with it's own binding security guarantees. It's only NATO membership that's barred. But you'll note that Ukraine's position isn't "the current deal is unacceptable". Instead it's some version of "we're working on it with our western partners". This is the biggest push for some sort of peace deal that we've seen since the Istanbul Accords negotiations fell apart. I don't want to get too deep into the politics of it, but in general there is a potential outcome where Trump decides Ukraine is the obstacle to peace, lifts sanctions from Russia, gets a pile of lucrative Russian resource development contracts (read "bribes"), and walks away from Ukraine. I think Ukraine's objective in the current negotiation process is not to produce an actual peace deal, but rather to avoid this outcome. And if an actual peace deal of some sort is inked, I think it won't be honored.

Why this matters - I think this is a big part of why Russia is demanding the rest of the Donbas as part of the deal to be handed over as a prelude to anything else happening. They want to ensure that this isn't a stall, and isn't just an attempt to convince Trump, but instead is a substantive concession by Ukraine, which would create an investment in the peace process, and put Ukraine at a distinct disadvantage if they don't follow through on the peace deal and hostilities resume. Which also means that this will likely be a moving target. In other words if the war continues for the rest of this year and Russia captures all or most of the remaining parts of Donetsk region, Russia will likely shift territorial demands to the rest of Zaporozhye or Kherson region. It's not about the territory, it's about using it as leverage.

For the european pov its better to continue fighting till, in optimal scenario Russia completly collapses into civil war and at best fractures or at least collapses economical.
What if this simply doesn't happen and instead it's Ukraine that collapses and fractures, giving Russia the opportunity to install a friendly regime in Kiev, as well as grab large chunks of territory in eastern Ukraine? Now you have a semi-failed state Ukraine with possibly a western peacekeeping zone, a pro-Russian satellite government in Kiev, and formal Russian annexation of even more of Ukraine. Was it better to continue fighting from a European perspective? I think not. The current plan envisions a somewhat smaller Ukraine that still joins the EU (or at least has that option) and therefore becomes part of the western security architecture.

Its russias core dilemma, its too weak to achieve its goal and it overestimated the influence of the US over europe.
I don't think Russia went into Ukraine in '22 expecting the US to play peacemaker with Europe. I also don't think Russia is too weak to achieve the goals they have shifted to once the initial plan has failed. It will just take longer, and be much costlier than desirable. However without some factor changing the current trend lines pretty dramatically, Ukraine is facing a defeat. It's a matter of when, not if. Which is why I think eventually Ukraine will come to the table in earnest. But it will likely require the frontline situation to get quite a bit worse first, and it might require Zelensky to not be in office anymore.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Continuing our review of towns taken by Russia, we have Kurakhovo next. It was taken after only ~3 weeks of fighting, and Ukrainian forces largely withdrew to avoid the threat of encirclement towards the end of 2024. About 800-1000 residents remained in the town though by August reportedly the population had reached and the exceeded 3000 residents, making it even more populous then Selidovo. And the locals are refusing to evacuate pretty consistently. The first video is from June of 2025. While the damage is substantial, much of it is just an uncleaned-up mess. Quite a few houses are intact with minor or moderate damage, very repairable. Houses on the outskirts are more destroyed. The locals seem to be fairly anti-Ukrainian, but there are selection biases that need to be taken into account. Food and water are being distributed through a humanitarian aid center. As of the first video, the area was still in range of FPV drones, mine clearing was not completed, and there were still unremoved bodies in various basements. Locals report Ukrainian drone strikes on remaining civilians and also report Russian military units sharing food with them. Both of these things cement the attitudes of civilians in the area. It's interesting to note that the church is still active, and the priest is receiving aid from monasteries in Russia. He's not alone, some of the aid for the civilians also came from Russian religious organizations, but this is an institutional link. The second video is from November 2025. It's a couple of motorcyclists, maybe affiliated with the Russian military, driving to and around Kurakhovo. Reportedly the intent is to have Kurakhovo connected to the power grid by the New Year. You'll note that with the debries cleaned up, and with some repairs already started some areas now just look like another depressing post-Soviet town. There are still plenty of damaged buildings, and the outskirts are a disaster area, but some parts are clearly a living town. Note the port-a-potties. Likely no plubming of any kind, but much better than a cesspit. Life is clearly returning, but I suspect it will be a long time before we see a total reconstruction, and I'm completely certain the town will be smaller than before, unless it gets populated with refugees from other towns, closer to the front line.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

It appears Russia is trying to make the border buffer zone Putin talked about a reality. Russia has crossed the border into Ukraine in several areas, and has resumed or expanded border operations in various places. Given that the current peace deal envisions fighting outside of the Donbas halted along the current line of contact, presumably this means Russia would get to hold on to these areas. Note, for now these are small isolated pockets rather than any sort of continuous buffer zone. And at present pace it will take many months for a real buffer zone to emerge. There is of course another interpretation, this is an attempt to pull Ukrainian forces to these areas and stretch Ukraine even thinner. But I think this is less likely, the efforts are disparate and not robust, meaning they don't present the kind of threat that would cause Ukraine to move substantial resources. I suspect instead they will choose to lose some border villages rather than compromise their main efforts to stop Russia's offensive in the Donbas or Zaporozhye areas.

North Sumy, Chernigov regions.

Russian forces have continued to expand the small pocket they gained here, taking the village of Belaya Bereza, east of Komarovka.


Russian strikes on the village of Sukhodol, north of the Belaya Bereza area.


Russia hit a bridge near Lisogubovka, northern part of Sumy region.


Sumy area.

Russian forces have expanded operations aroudn the Grafskoe area, crossing the border in a new spot towards Popovka, and have also attacked towards Ryasnoe from the south, but the outcome of these attacks is unclear. East of Miropol'ye Russian forces have closed an entire pocket of Ukrainian territory that was surrounded by Russia.


Kharkov area.

North-west of Kharkov Russian forces have crossed the border in a new area, approaching the village of Lukashovka.


In the Liptsi area Russian forces have restarted advances for the first time in many months, taking the village of Zelenoe along the border. Around Volchansk Russian forces have taken more area in Volchanskie Hutory, another chunk of territory along the international border, secured all of Semenovka, and have taken half of Grafskoe. They've also taken the rest of Staritsa.


East of Volchansk, in the corner where the border veers southward Russia forces have started a new push west of Degtyarnoe.


Russian drone strike hits a Russian Bv 206 transporter, near Karaichnoe.


Russian drone strikes around Semenovka.


As Russian forces advance southward along the Severskiy Donets river, Ukraine has announced mandatory evacuations in a number of settlements southward around Stariy Saltov.


Kupyansk area.

Russian forces have restarted advances west out of Dvurechnoe, towards Kutkovka and south out of Dvurechenskoe, gaining some ground.. East of Kupyansk Russian forces have launched a new offensive intended to secure routes into Kupyansk from the east. They've taken most of Peschanoe, and half of Petropavlovka. They then pushed to the outskirts of Kurilovka from the east, and southward past Podoly. North of Kupyansk, west of the river, Russian forces recaptured some ground, securing their positions in the area.


Russian FAB-3000 strike on Kovsharovka, south of Kupyansk-Uzlovoy.


Russia's 288th Arty Bde operating BM-27s, Giatsint-K, and Msta-S, in support of West MD forces, in Kharkov region


Russian 45th Engineers Bde operating in the Kupyansk area.


Oskol front.

Russian Krasnopol' strike on a Ukrainian position near Shiykovka.


Krasniy Liman area.

Russian forces have gained some ground east of Krasniy Liman and have retaken Stavki. North-west of Liman Russian forces have gained some more ground near Koroviy Yar. In the woods Russian forces approach Krasniy Liman from the south-east, inching towards the town.


Russia apparently hit a HIMARS TEL in north-western Donetsk region, near Novobakhmetievo.


Russian forces hit a milk processing facility in Slavynask and the power plant in Nikolaevka, just east of Slavyansk.


Seversk area.

Russian forces have cleared the hills south of Zakotnoe. Russia gained some ground in Reznikovka taking the central part, but the village remains contested. In Ozernoe Russian forces made minimal gains.


Druzhkovka area.

Russian forces have taken most of Nikiforovka and advanced towards Privol'ye entering the first houses of it, and Golubovka. Ukrainian forces meanwhile pushed back up to the outskirts of Min'kovka.


Russian strikes landing in Kramatorsk.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Konstantinovka area.

Russian forces have contested Berestok, back and forth fighting continues around the eastern approaches. Inside Konstantinovka Russian forces have taken a chunk of the town in the south-east. West of Konstantinovka Russian forces have pushed forward towards Stepanovka.


Russian Molniya-2 drone mining roads around Konstantinovka.


Russian drone strikes on 6 Ukrainian vehicles around Konstantinovka.


Russian drones strike 2 allegedly MaxxPro MRAPs near Konstantinovka. I'm not sure we can PID the vehicle type.


Russian bomb strikes on Konstantinovka.


Russia's 72nd MRBde, 3rd Army corps, UAV teams in the Konstantinovka area.


Pokrovsk area.

On the north side in the former salient Russian forces have taken Torestkoe and pushed a little north-west of it. North-west of Rodinskoe Russian forces are pushing westward towards Biletskoe, Sukhetskoe and Zatishok are fully in Russian hands.. Russian forces have also expanded their control around Nikanorovka. In Grishino Ukrainian forces counter-attacked, contesting the Russian-held area around the ponds, but were unabled to consolidate.


Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian infantry and drones in the Dobropol'ye area.


Russian drone strikes around the Pokrovsk area. In the 1st link they hit an ATV, a pickup truck, and Ukrainian positions in structures. In the second link they hit 5 pickup trucks.


Out of the Bradley and M113 in Russian service we saw around Pokrovsk, the M113 was apparently taken out by a drone strike.


Russian Buk TEL in the Pokrovsk area, allegedly it belongs to an M2 variant, but I can't tell from this footage.


Dnepropetrovsk area.

A reminder, this section talks about everything from west of Pokrovsk down to the Velikomihailovka area. Russian forces have gained some more ground east of Novopavlovka, holding almost all of the high ground there. Only a few fields between Novopavlovka and Muravka remain in Ukrainian hands.


Eastern Zaporozhye.

Russian forces captured Kosovtsevo, and briefly took Ternovatoe before a Ukrainian counter-attack re-took most of the village. Russian forces are holding the southern outskirts. Russian forces then pushed out and took most of Pridorozhnoe. Around Gulyaypole Russian forces advanced westward taking Svyatopetrovka and Staroukrainka, flaking Zaliznichnoe from the north, and expanding the buffer zone west of the northern part of Gulyaypole. Near Dorozhnyanka Russian forces have captured a chunk of the railway and surrounding area.


A Russian BM-27 supporting East MD forces in eastern Zaporozhye, and BM-30 (Tornado-S) supporting the same in Dnepropetrovsk region.


Russian T-80BVM supporting East MD forces in Zaporozhye region.


Zaporozhye.

East of Stepnogorsk Russian forces have secured Pavlovka, and Lukyanovskoe, despite some Ukrainian counter-attacks. Russian forces also grabbed open fields between Stepovoe and Pavlovka. Ukraine counter-attacked in Malaya Tokmachka, recapturing the prison complex, the school, and the surrounding area.


Russian drone strikes around Primorskoe. They mostly target infantry anda vehicle.


Russian SpN ATGM team striking allegedly a Ukrainian UAV operator position.


Dnepr front.

Russian FPV drone operating inside a net tunnel, Kherson area, strikes a green van. We can't tell if the van is being used by the Ukrainian military or not, and I can't tell how the drone operator would know.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Black Sea/Crimea.

Russian naval aviation Su-30SM hunts Ukrainian unmanned boats with... unguided bombs.


During a Ukrainain unmanned boat strike on the Novorossiysk naval base a sub was near the impact. It hasn't moved from the spot as of Jan. 19th. Presumably it was damaged after all.


A tanker, the Ursus Maritimus, damaged by Ukrainian strikes in the port of Taman' and containership Aurelia damaged shortly after leaving Novorossiysk.


Strikes.

There are reports that Russia agreed to stop hitting Ukrainian energy infrastructure for several days, ending February 1st.


There are reports that Russian Shahed drones have been flying at extra-low altitudes under manual control to dodge EW and detection.


Russian strikes on Kiev. Targets include the TEC-4, TEC-6 powerplants, and the Roshen factory. There are reports that TEC-6 is beyond repair. Links represent at least 3 different waves of strikes. Russia reportedly used S-400 missiles for surface-surface strikes in one of the attacks on Kiev. There are also reports that hundreds of thousands of people left Kiev in the wake of the strikes.


Russia hit the train station in Konotop, Sumy region, with Geran'-3 drones.


Russia hit Kharkov city. Reportedly targets were energy infrastructure including the Losevo substation and the Zmievskaya powerplant. Blackouts were reported.


Russia hit allegedly a Ukrainian staging area west of Kharkov, near the village of Sazono-Balanovka with an Iskander. There is a claim of an M270 MLRS in the area, but I can't make it out.


Russia hit an inactive Philip Morris factory in Kharkov region with an Iskander.


Russian drones hit a Ukrainian train in Kharkov region. While initial reports had it as a civilian passenger train, it apparently was being used to transport service members, though it also apparently had civilian passengers.


Russia hit Lozovaya, Kharkov region.


Russia has begun targeting vehicles on the road Pavlograd-Pokrovsk, allegedly close to Pavlograd itself.


Russian forces hit Cherkasy, targets include a substation.


Russia hit Krivoy Rog. Reportedly an Iskander was used.


Russia hit Ukrainian helos in Kirovograd region, with Shaheds.


Russia hit Sinel'nikovo, Dnepropetrovsk region. Targets include the rail infrastructure and trains/rolling stock.


Russia hit a fuel truck in Sinel'kovo arae, Dnepropetrovsk.


Russia hit Zaporozhye city, targets include industrial infrastructure and a couple of substations. At least one missile hit a residential area, wounding 4 civilians. Links represent at least 2 different waves of strikes.


Russian strikes on Odessa. Targest reportedly include port and rail infrastructure, as well as substations in Chernomorsk and Odessa.


Russia hit an oil pipeline and storage facility in Brody, L'vov region. Fires rage for about a week and as of this post haven't been put out yet.


A Russiang long range strike took out two likely inoperative Su-27s and an F-16 training airframe. They also hit several radars. Similar to Ukraine's strikes on Crimea, several of the drones miss. This seems to be a feature of Starlink-guided long range drones.


Ukrainian air defense team using a GSh-30-2 aircraft cannon.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ukraine allegedly hit an ambulance in Energodar.


Ukraine hit Belgorod, damaging some cars and wounding one civilian, as well as causing blackouts. It's likely the Michurinskaya powerplant got hit. Links represent at least 2 separate waves of strikes.


Ukraine allegedly hit a bus in Belgorod region, wounding 5 civilians.


Ukraine hit the powerplant in Orel.


Ukraine hit a Russian munitions storage facility in Debal'tsevo.


Ukraine hit Novaya Kahovka, Kherson region, damaging a store. It's unclear what the intended target was.


A Russian S-400 SAM accidentally hit a residential building in Adygeya, killing 1 and wounding 13 civilians and causing substantial damage. We've seen many such incidents in Ukraine where SAMs often hid in urban areas, less so in Russia, but it's happened before too. This is just the biggest one so far.


Russian battlegroup north drone defense teams engaging inbounds.


Russian drone defense teams from BARS-Crimea in action. They operate several pickups with HMGs and a captured Ukrainian armored car that was reportedly sent to them by a Russian Motor-Rifles unit.


Russian BARS-Belgorod and Kochevnik drone defense units in action. Kochevnik is still using their imported laser.


Russian troops launching Yelka interceptor drones, Belgorod region.


Interesting bits.

Russia lost an Su-34, somewhere in the northern part of the theater, or over the Black Sea, reports disagree.


It apepars Ukraine hit a Russian Buk-M3 with a BONUS 155mm artillery shell.


Rare footage of Ukrainian forces using M172 Copperhead guided shells.


Russian air defense teams (drone defense?) from the Sever-V volunteer brigade. Note the ZU-23-2 mounted on a BMP-1AM for some reason. The BMP has clear attachment points for the extra armor kit, but doesn't carry the armor itself.


A look at Russia's Nevskaya volunteer brigade receiving new Courier, Chelonok, and Omichi UGVs. The Chelnok is the larger wheeled UGV towing an artillery piece. Note the Omich UGV can be controlled manually or remotely. The Chelnok may fall into the same category.


Another Russian unmanned systems unit, this one a regiment, shows off various UGV variants with different loadouts. Some are clearly imrovised nonsense, but some look quite useful.


DPRK sources 122mm shells in Russian service, used on the D-74 and D-30.


A look at Russia's new BM-35 drone with a Starlink terminal. The BM-35 has been prominent in recent strikes.


A new variant of the Molniya-2 drone.


Another Ukrainian Puma APC, this one a 4X4, in the 79th Airmobile Bde.


Another exchange of KIA took place between Russia and Ukraine. Reportedly Russia handed over 1000 Ukrainian war dead, and received back 38 of their own.


France stopped a tanker associated with Russian oil transports, the Grinch, but now is apparently releasing it.


Reportedly Ukraine will get the TRIDON Mk 2 AAA financed by Sweden and Denmark, allegedly 1 artillery btln (12 or 18 guns presumably?). This will be the first modern western truck-mounted AAA, after the Skynex, and the Terrahawk Paladin. It's very telling that instead of focusing on one type and bulk-producing it, we have this drip-feed.

 
Except it depends. Unconditional surrender for Germany was the product of a kind of military defeat that seems highly unlikely in this conflict.



It's not clear that it in fact gives Ukraine no security, some of the statements made suggest that it does include security guarantees from the west. Also don't forget the current deal leaves the road open to EU membership which comes with it's own binding security guarantees. It's only NATO membership that's barred. But you'll note that Ukraine's position isn't "the current deal is unacceptable". Instead it's some version of "we're working on it with our western partners". This is the biggest push for some sort of peace deal that we've seen since the Istanbul Accords negotiations fell apart. I don't want to get too deep into the politics of it, but in general there is a potential outcome where Trump decides Ukraine is the obstacle to peace, lifts sanctions from Russia, gets a pile of lucrative Russian resource development contracts (read "bribes"), and walks away from Ukraine. I think Ukraine's objective in the current negotiation process is not to produce an actual peace deal, but rather to avoid this outcome. And if an actual peace deal of some sort is inked, I think it won't be honored.

Why this matters - I think this is a big part of why Russia is demanding the rest of the Donbas as part of the deal to be handed over as a prelude to anything else happening. They want to ensure that this isn't a stall, and isn't just an attempt to convince Trump, but instead is a substantive concession by Ukraine, which would create an investment in the peace process, and put Ukraine at a distinct disadvantage if they don't follow through on the peace deal and hostilities resume. Which also means that this will likely be a moving target. In other words if the war continues for the rest of this year and Russia captures all or most of the remaining parts of Donetsk region, Russia will likely shift territorial demands to the rest of Zaporozhye or Kherson region. It's not about the territory, it's about using it as leverage.



What if this simply doesn't happen and instead it's Ukraine that collapses and fractures, giving Russia the opportunity to install a friendly regime in Kiev, as well as grab large chunks of territory in eastern Ukraine? Now you have a semi-failed state Ukraine with possibly a western peacekeeping zone, a pro-Russian satellite government in Kiev, and formal Russian annexation of even more of Ukraine. Was it better to continue fighting from a European perspective? I think not. The current plan envisions a somewhat smaller Ukraine that still joins the EU (or at least has that option) and therefore becomes part of the western security architecture.



I don't think Russia went into Ukraine in '22 expecting the US to play peacemaker with Europe. I also don't think Russia is too weak to achieve the goals they have shifted to once the initial plan has failed. It will just take longer, and be much costlier than desirable. However without some factor changing the current trend lines pretty dramatically, Ukraine is facing a defeat. It's a matter of when, not if. Which is why I think eventually Ukraine will come to the table in earnest. But it will likely require the frontline situation to get quite a bit worse first, and it might require Zelensky to not be in office anymore.
Makes no sense to sacrifice ukrainian citizens under russian primitivity. We know Russia does mass murder, rape and ethnic cleansing in the areas it holds. Its not possible for Ukraine to give its people to that. Its far more favorable to keep the fight up and target russian infrastructure. Keep in mind Ukraine has a large stockpile of nuclear material which it can use in the "negotiations" as well.

Also Trump wont make business deals with Russia for the very same reason he made no deals yet and chickened out of Greenland. The EU is an economical behemoth. Russia ...is a economic dwarf. Russia has no market, Russia produces nothing and what Russia can sell...oil and gas...is already flooding the market.

So any deal he imagines with Russia would pretty much be eaten up by european counter meassures. Its also doubtfull that trumps presidency would survive given the fact more and more americans including republican Senators see him as russian asset.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
I have greatest respect for the retraint behavior Ukraine shows.
By "restrain" you mean not killing Russian civilians in Russia or not killing Ukrainian civilians in (occupied) Ukraine? Maybe the number of killings? Killing how many children earns your "respect"? Are Ukrainian children more "children" than Russian children?

I am surprised by you reference to the "aggressor", you have posted repeatedly that the only thing that counts is winning. Being the aggressor is completely irrelevant; to you, I mean.

I guess that you see Zelenski committing suicide in the ruins of Kiev, because the facts are...
Ukraine has 2 millions deserters; millions of Ukrainian are living abroad (like in Canada) and they are not coming back.
Ukraine doesn't have money for 40% of its budget; and already needs more.
Ukraine is fighting thanks to imported weapons; when they (SAM) arrive.
Ukraine has a serious problem with power generation; it is going to be hard to produce shells and drone without electricity.
Ukraine has lost 20% of its territory a keeps losing more; yes, slowly.
Ukraine is bankrupt; it is not because we keep afloat so we can keep it "in the fight".
Another similarity between Hitler and Zelenski is: "He who defends everything, defends nothing.”

I think this you "Mediterranean":
France has released a recently seized Russian shadow fleet tanker. Paris separately informed Kyiv of the decision, LeMonde reports.
On the other hand, I can find that neither in lemonde nor in france24. Maybe those news don't look as good as the first headline?
PS
Have you got the list of "Mediterranean countries" right yet?


Its not possible for Ukraine to give its people to that.
You are going to be surprised with "what countries give their people to" once you start reading Human History. You had a Civil War in you country, you should know "a little" about that.
 
By "restrain" you mean not killing Russian civilians in Russia or not killing Ukrainian civilians in (occupied) Ukraine? Maybe the number of killings? Killing how many children earns your "respect"? Are Ukrainian children more "children" than Russian children?

I am surprised by you reference to the "aggressor", you have posted repeatedly that the only thing that counts is winning. Being the aggressor is completely irrelevant; to you, I mean.

I guess that you see Zelenski committing suicide in the ruins of Kiev, because the facts are...
Ukraine has 2 millions deserters; millions of Ukrainian are living abroad (like in Canada) and they are not coming back.
Ukraine doesn't have money for 40% of its budget; and already needs more.
Ukraine is fighting thanks to imported weapons; when they (SAM) arrive.
Ukraine has a serious problem with power generation; it is going to be hard to produce shells and drone without electricity.
Ukraine has lost 20% of its territory a keeps losing more; yes, slowly.
Ukraine is bankrupt; it is not because we keep afloat so we can keep it "in the fight".
Another similarity between Hitler and Zelenski is: "He who defends everything, defends nothing.”

I think this you "Mediterranean":
France has released a recently seized Russian shadow fleet tanker. Paris separately informed Kyiv of the decision, LeMonde reports.
On the other hand, I can find that neither in lemonde nor in france24. Maybe those news don't look as good as the first headline?
PS
Have you got the list of "Mediterranean countries" right yet?



You are going to be surprised with "what countries give their people to" once you start reading Human History. You had a Civil War in you country, you should know "a little" about that.
I dont care about the fate of enemy populations. In my mind Ukraine has full hand to whatever it sees as positive to reach its goals.

On a sidenote i got the list of mediterranean countries perfectly right. I dont make mistakes in geography.
 
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