The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

crest

Member
May I remind you that Ukraine's current President was born as a Russian speaking Ukrainian.
We must also remember that the 1991 agreement that Russia was a signatory to Guaranteed Ukraine's sovereignty and borders in exchange for them giving up their nuclear weapons, due to this it is evident that Russia can not be trusted to carry out their obligations that the said they were committed to.
It is unacceptable for any country to invade an other, unless it presents a high risk to the invaders sovereignty, which clearly Ukraine did not as it was a fraction of the Russian size, both militarily and economically and was never a threat.

I'm sure that the idea of it being unacceptable to invade a country that doesn't represent a threat to the invading countries sovereignty is regularly ignored internationally.

The point about Russia guaranteed Ukraine sovereignty is a much more valid point. Tho it would be fair to say there was a long and well documented series of events that lead Russia to this point. One can hardly call this a SUDDEN and unprovoked act of aggression at least not honestly. I'm not trying to justify there obvious act of aggression here I'm just pointing out Russia did infact make clear it had serious security issues with what was going on with Ukraine both within Ukrainian government aswell as international relationships aswell as made it quite clear it was willing to act on those concerns if they continued to progress as they did.

The point being the idea of Russia sovereignty being threatened (even from there point of view). Is a stretch they did infact have serious points about national security and it's not entirely unexpected that they eventually acted on those concerns
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
'm sure that the idea of it being unacceptable to invade a country that doesn't represent a threat to the invading countries sovereignty is regularly ignored internationally.
Just because one country carries out an illegal invasion, does not mean any other country can do the same. The old saying comes to mind, Two wrongs don't make a right, in other words it is not valid to carry out a criminal act, making the excuse that someone else also did it.
I'm just pointing out Russia did infact make clear it had serious security issues with what was going on with Ukraine both within Ukrainian government as well as international relationships as well as made it quite clear it was willing to act on those concerns if they continued to progress as they did.
The simple reality was that the Ukraine Government was quite legally (they are a sovereign country) had decided to alline with Europe instead of Russia and Putin did not like it and as an independent and Russia had no right to do anything about it state they had every right to do so.
The point being the idea of Russia sovereignty being threatened (even from there point of view). Is a stretch they did infact have serious points about national security and it's not entirely unexpected that they eventually acted on those concerns
What genuine concerns.
They said they had some but they really don't stand up to any scrutiny and must be viewed in the same light as the excuses that Hitler used that resulted in WW2 .
The reality was that Ukraine stopped being a vassal state to Russia and Putin did not like it and simply thought he could roll in and change the government as the USSR had done to Hungary and Czechoslovakia.
Did not work as historically Ukrainians are not very fond of Russians.
One can also refer to the 1997 Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, which the recognition of the inviolability of existing borders, which Russia ignored
A history of Ukraine
 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Neo-nazis or pseudo-nazi aligned groups exist in both RU and UKR, but are marginalized, and do not represent the mainstream, nor do they have any power. They are simply useful idiots. Both sides play up the "look ! Nazis !" meme.
It’s a little more complicated than that in Ukraine though. Here is the latest “incident” from less than a week ago (on X):

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Sergey Radchenko’s take (on X):

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Neither of these guys is a Russian propagandist. It isn’t misinterpretation or a “black swan” event either. This type of garbage is integrated into the political system and they certainly do have power. The subject has only became “taboo” after the Russian invasion and the infamous phrase came to life, “how can there be a nazi problem when the president is Jewish” (would be equivalent of “how can there be a racism problem when the president is black” for the Obama era, which any reasonable person would call a complete nonsense and would be exactly right). Also about the time when the Azov suddenly got new clean slate, conversations about the problem became subtle to nonexistent in our part of the world, etc. Right up to the invasion (and a little after) the Azov, for example, was considered to be one of the biggest issues due to their great influence not only in Ukraine, but in the nazi circles throughout the world. One example of good journalism one year before the invasion:


Notably:

The main recruitment center for Azov, known as the Cossack House, stands in the center of Kyiv, a four-story brick building on loan from Ukraine’s Defense Ministry. In the courtyard is a cinema and a boxing club. The top floor hosts a lecture hall and a library, full of books by authors who supported German fascism, like Ezra Pound and Martin Heidegger, or whose works were co-opted by Nazi propaganda, like Friedrich Nietzsche and Ernst Jünger. On the ground floor is a shop called Militant Zone, which sells clothes and key chains with stylized swastikas and other neo-Nazi merchandise.

“It could be described as a small state within a state,” says Olena Semenyaka, the head of international outreach for the Azov movement. On a tour of the Cossack House in 2019, she told TIME that Azov’s mission was to form a coalition of far-right groups across the Western world, with the ultimate aim of taking power throughout Europe.


To think that these folks do not have power is rather shortsighted. This is not, however, to say that Ukraine needed “denazification” or some such nonsense. I want to be crystal clear about that. Ironically, this is probably another of the Russian “stated goals” that will have the opposite effect once it is done and over with. I think it is quite reasonable to assume that these type of organizations will thrive post war and have a lot more influence. Look at the stanc eof the Azov nowadays. We here (in Canada) had an actual fucking nazi brought to the Parliament to celebrate the Ukrainians and their struggle. The reality is that the absolute majority of the people never followed the events that were taking place before Feb 2022 and really have no idea. Now the issue is considered to not exist, which is unfortunate (but not unusual or abnormal). But as long as they are fighting the good fight on the right side, it’s all good. Just like the “Russian partisans”, very few people are interested in looking into the group, their leaders, etc, as long as they are on the right side (these people have no influence, to put it in context).

Like I said, scum is scum regardless of where it comes from and whose side they fight on, but scum on one side here certainly has quite a bit more influence and political pull than the scum on the other side of the battlefield.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
The point being the idea of Russia sovereignty being threatened (even from there point of view). Is a stretch they did infact have serious points about national security and it's not entirely unexpected that they eventually acted on those concerns
Putin knows very well that there was no threat to Russian sovereignty when we use the internationally recognized borders of Russia as a definition of "Russia". Just like there are few Satanists and few Nazis in Ukraine. This war is about Russia trying to rebuild their empire and Ukraine is considered by Moscow to be a key part of that empire.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Neither of these guys is a Russian propagandist.
I don't know Radchenko but I have read a bit of and about Ragozin. He is basically a "mole" pretending to be against Putin but is actually attacking Western countries and Ukraine from the inside. A devious and dangerous person, pretending to be someone he is not.
 

crest

Member
Putin knows very well that there was no threat to Russian sovereignty when we use the internationally recognized borders of Russia as a definition of "Russia". Just like there are few Satanists and few Nazis in Ukraine. This war is about Russia trying to rebuild their empire and Ukraine is considered by Moscow to be a key part of that empire.
I specifically said I don't think it was Russian sovereignty but there is a difference between a threat to national sovereignty and a security issue. Crimea is a good example the potential for Ukraine under western controls to lock the Russia navy out of the black sea is a serious security issue for Russia tho it's not a sovereignty issue. Same with Western or western supported millitary assets on the border


Just because one country carries out an illegal invasion, does not mean any other country can do the same. The old saying comes to mind, Two wrongs don't make a right, in other words it is not valid to carry out a criminal act, making the excuse that someone else also did it.

Very true, also kinda irrelevant as far as reality in international affairs goes (sadly) to be honest If wars were only fought when everyone agrees on who is in the wrong they would in fact never be fought... On the flip side I believe if both sides were understood more often they would be fought less often. Hypocrisy rarely is of benefit in these situations

The simple reality was that the Ukraine Government was quite legally (they are a sovereign country) had decided to alline with Europe instead of Russia and Putin did not like it and as an independent and Russia had no right to do anything about it state they had every right to do so.

This would be along post about the legitimacy of Ukrainian elections the antirussian laws passed the (yes not a treaty) but word of America regarding further NATO expansion.
but I'll sume it up by saying ng from the point of Russia it was a very threating series of events one they were vocal about. A good indication of this is when Merkel voted down urain NATO expansion due to he believe that Russia would consider it a act of war

What genuine concerns.
They said they had some but they really don't stand up to any scrutiny and must be viewed in the same light as the excuses that Hitler used that resulted in WW2 .
The reality was that Ukraine stopped being a vassal state to Russia and Putin did not like it and simply thought he could roll in and change the government as the USSR had done to Hungary and Czechoslovakia.
Did not work as historically Ukrainians are not very fond of Russians.
One can also refer to the 1997 Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, which the recognition of the inviolability of existing borders, which Russia ignored
A history of Ukraine
Yes there is a solid point about Ukraine not being a Russian vassle state tho vassle state is perhaps to strong a term I would say Ukraine under strong Russian influence is more accurate. The switch from that to under strong Western influence is the security threat Russia was warning about. Think the Monro doctrine in the United States. As for Ukraine not being fond of Russians I think it very much depend on were in Ukraine your talking about there is/was a huge divide east and west on this issue much of the east was/is solidly pro Russian in terms of language culture and history. If not politics.

Its also worth noting the way the west has reacted in this war from the huge arms shipments to the sanctions to the peace initiative only when Ukraine is on the back foot. Remember 2022 when Russia was being pushed back and all the talk was about a strategic defeat of Russia, and I'm talking from us and European governments here. These facts go along way to validating Russian actions from there point of view as they are right in line with the type of Western hostility THEY considered to be a security threat for Russia in the first place. Ukraine was in Russian minds a buffer state and in all honesty should have been more or less left as such if this war was to be avoided
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I don't know Radchenko but I have read a bit of and about Ragozin. He is basically a "mole" pretending to be against Putin but is actually attacking Western countries and Ukraine from the inside. A devious and dangerous person, pretending to be someone he is not.
The significance is not the identity of the social medial personality reporting on this, but the nature of the statements made by a Ukrainian government official.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
ts also worth noting the way the west has reacted in this war from the huge arms shipments to the sanctions to the peace initiative only when Ukraine is on the back foot. Remember 2022 when Russia was being pushed back and all the talk was about a strategic defeat of Russia, and I'm talking from us and European governments here. These facts go along way to validating Russian actions from there point of view as they are right in line with the type of Western hostility THEY considered to be a security threat for Russia in the first place. Ukraine was in Russian minds a buffer state and in all honesty should have been more or less left as such if this war was to be avoided
The excuse of Western hostility to Russia is not valid as prior to 2014 Russian taking of Crimea from Ukraine the West was ambivalent to Russia and simply wanted peace and trade to continue. The continued reduction of their armed forces was a clear indication of this and there was never any apatite for any conflict with Russia. In appearance it all is just Putin trying to restore the grandeur of the old borders of the USSR and its empire. The Western hostility only arose due to the aggression displayed by Russia to its neighbours. I also note that the comment on Western aid only coming when Ukraine was on the back foot also indicates the west unwillingness to be aggressive towards Russia unless forced to.
As an sovereign independent nation Ukraine had the right to align with who ever it liked and no country has the right to use military force to stop it . For instance if Japan wished to align with China the US does not have the right to militarily interfere.
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
Its also worth noting the way the west has reacted in this war from the huge arms shipments to the sanctions to the peace initiative only when Ukraine is on the back foot. Remember 2022 when Russia was being pushed back and all the talk was about a strategic defeat of Russia, and I'm talking from us and European governments here. These facts go along way to validating Russian actions from there point of view as they are right in line with the type of Western hostility THEY considered to be a security threat for Russia in the first place. Ukraine was in Russian minds a buffer state and in all honesty should have been more or less left as such if this war was to be avoided.
You seem to be forgetting something. All the western military aid to Ukraine is a reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Think about it. 15 years ago Western countries, & particularly European ones, were gradually disarming, cutting the size of their armed forces, & often not spending enough even to keep the equipment they had operating. They were letting arms & ammunition factories close, & running down stocks. They barely even reacted to Russia grabbing Crimea & Donbas.

Then Putin tried to conquer all of Ukraine, accompanied by announcements that the intention was to eliminate the Ukrainian language & identity. It was too much.

There was no military threat to Russia at all - until it tried to conquer Ukraine. Ukrainian approaches to NATO & the EU had been rejected. It was, in effect, a buffer state - until Putin decided to eliminate his buffer.

Now there is a threat, & it's entirely because of Russian behaviour. Russia frightened Finland & Sweden into joining NATO, thus turning the Baltic into a NATO lake. The Black Sea fleet has had to pull back many of its ships to Novorossiysk, because its formerly secure (when it was in Ukraine) base at Sevastopol has become too dangerous. The Russian economy is suffering. Hundreds of thousands of young Russian men are dead or injured. And so on . . . .

All of that is 100% caused by Putin. All he had to do was nothing, & he'd be sitting pretty, but instead he got drunk on hubris, & grossly overestimated his own power, & underestimated the resolve of those he was about to turn into his enemies. Crazy.
 

crest

Member
You seem to be forgetting something. All the western military aid to Ukraine is a reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Think about it. 15 years ago Western countries, & particularly European ones, were gradually disarming, cutting the size of their armed forces, & often not spending enough even to keep the equipment they had operating. They were letting arms & ammunition factories close, & running down stocks. They barely even reacted to Russia grabbing Crimea & Donbas.

Then Putin tried to conquer all of Ukraine, accompanied by announcements that the intention was to eliminate the Ukrainian language & identity. It was too much.

There was no military threat to Russia at all - until it tried to conquer Ukraine. Ukrainian approaches to NATO & the EU had been rejected. It was, in effect, a buffer state - until Putin decided to eliminate his buffer.

Now there is a threat, & it's entirely because of Russian behaviour. Russia frightened Finland & Sweden into joining NATO, thus turning the Baltic into a NATO lake. The Black Sea fleet has had to pull back many of its ships to Novorossiysk, because its formerly secure (when it was in Ukraine) base at Sevastopol has become too dangerous. The Russian economy is suffering. Hundreds of thousands of young Russian men are dead or injured. And so on . . . .

All of that is 100% caused by Putin. All he had to do was nothing, & he'd be sitting pretty, but instead he got drunk on hubris, & grossly overestimated his own power, & underestimated the resolve of those he was about to turn into his enemies. Crazy.
I'm not forgetting it was after Russian aggression I pointed it out because from the Russian prospective it's confirmation that the west is "against Russia".
Let me put it this way take Iran as a example there is no proff Iran was producing a nuke yet we believed it was there goal so we bombed them. The point I'm trying to make here is there is alot of evidence that Russia did indeed conciter Western influence in Ukraine and ANY millitary alignment in particular as a threat they were vocal about it and as can be seen by there actions serious about it. To ignore that reality well that's the same road that lead to this war being started that's the entirety of my point here honestly I don't even know how you expect Russia to be taking all of your concerns seriously well dismissing there's to be a realistic expectation of how this will play out.


I'm sure many here are familiar with John mershimer this is a fairly good lecture of his describing how this is indeed Russia reacting to what it presived as a threat it's worth noting this is 9 years old aswell. That is to help illustrate that this is not some naked aggression coming unseen out of nowhere and indeed has been something the Russian government has been warning about for some time before they took to the battlefield a issue they could not solve brother means
I also chose a old video because I'm trying to limit the discussion to why the war started and how that is important to how it ends and why it's continuing. As I believe those factors are undoubtedly linked nomatter ones opinion of who is right or who is wrong in there actions. I'm sure there is enough fault and justification on both sides or this probably wouldn't be happening at all
 
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vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
I'm not forgetting it was after Russian aggression I pointed it out because from the Russian prospective it's confirmation that the west is "against Russia".
The Russian perception is simply wrong. It is not rational, coherent, or logical. It is no more realistic than the "jewish threat" against Nazi Germany.

It is not up to the west to coddle such fuzzy, irrational behavior.

Russia stole Crimea, and the west did almost nothing. Trade was increasing. Europe was disarming. NATO was dying on the vine.

What threat to Russia ?

Let me put it this way take Iran as a example there is no proff Iran was producing a nuke yet we believed it was there goal so we bombed them.
Something spooked the Isrealis. I would also point out you dont manufacture multiple hardened Uranium refinement sites and enrich Uranium up to 60% for a peaceful nuclear program.

If the Iranians never had the desire of making nuclear weapons, then they have done a bang-up job making it appear like they are desiring nuclear weapons.

The point I'm trying to make here is there is alot of evidence that Russia did indeed conciter Western influence in Ukraine and ANY millitary alignment in particular as a threat they were vocal about it and as can be seen by there actions serious about it. To ignore that reality well that's the same road that lead to this war being started that's the entirety of my point here honestly I don't even know how you expect Russia to be taking all of your concerns seriously well dismissing there's to be a realistic expectation of how this will play out.
Yet the reality is as follows:

1) Putin did just about everything in his power to push Finland and Sweden into NATO.
2) Putin removed troops on the NATO borders so he could toss them into Ukraine.
3) Attempting to conquer Ukraine would simply increase his borders with NATO.

None of these actions indicate an actual fear of NATO.
 

crest

Member
The Russian perception is simply wrong. It is not rational, coherent, or logical. It is no more realistic than the "jewish threat" against Nazi Germany.

It is not up to the west to coddle such fuzzy, irrational behavior.

Russia stole Crimea, and the west did almost nothing. Trade was increasing. Europe was disarming. NATO was dying on the vine.

What threat to Russia ?



Something spooked the Isrealis. I would also point out you dont manufacture multiple hardened Uranium refinement sites and enrich Uranium up to 60% for a peaceful nuclear program.

If the Iranians never had the desire of making nuclear weapons, then they have done a bang-up job making it appear like they are desiring nuclear weapons.



Yet the reality is as follows:

1) Putin did just about everything in his power to push Finland and Sweden into NATO.
2) Putin removed troops on the NATO borders so he could toss them into Ukraine.
3) Attempting to conquer Ukraine would simply increase his borders with NATO.

None of these actions indicate an actual fear of NATO.
Well I could point out thatevery monertiering agency there is has no evidence of Iran trying to build a bomb. But it doesn't matter Israel and the u.s had reason to believe they did. Iran like Ukraine could have taken steps drastic as they may have been to remove those fears but didn't. As far as Russia by being rational that's literally opinion infact that is why perspective matters. I could point out Russia's fears of how Crimea would deny them there only warm water ports how that is a national security issue for Russia, and to be objective I believe that any country would consider that possibility a security issue.

But honestly these are points important as they may be take away from the greater point that it's now in how legitimate one side sees the others points it's how seriously the issue is to that side. And obviously if you can't tell this is very serious for Russia. The fact they have had a long and consistent history of pointing out what was wrong in there view and what they would do and to this day still have the same demands probably means that this is more then just a naked land grab. That is if you think Russia of all countries really needs more land especially at the cost this war has brought to there country.

Tho yes ptn did force Finland and Sweden into NATO. By it's also fair to say NATO pushed Russia into Ukraine. Or tat s to say the threat of it coupled with the prowestren change of government and subsequent anti Russian laws passed in Ukraine. Again nim not trying to debate f the government change was Western backed or not what I'm saying s Russia sees it as that. Weather or not I or anyone else believe it is moot t was a serious security threat to Russia one they had been warning about for some time and they acted. Any peace deal is going to have to take that into account or it's not going to be accepted by the russians

As far as it's not the west job to take Russian concerns seriously I would argue it's every nations jobto handle there diplomatic relationships well enough to avoid war...
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Russian perception is simply wrong. It is not rational, coherent, or logical. It is no more realistic than the "jewish threat" against Nazi Germany.

It is not up to the west to coddle such fuzzy, irrational behavior.

Russia stole Crimea, and the west did almost nothing. Trade was increasing. Europe was disarming. NATO was dying on the vine.

What threat to Russia ?
One small correction. The west did something. The west provided economic support to Ukraine, and passed sanctions against Russia. They also refused to recognize the annexation.

Yet the reality is as follows:

1) Putin did just about everything in his power to push Finland and Sweden into NATO.
2) Putin removed troops on the NATO borders so he could toss them into Ukraine.
3) Attempting to conquer Ukraine would simply increase his borders with NATO.

None of these actions indicate an actual fear of NATO.
You're assuming that he knew those would be the consequences. But Russia went into Ukraine thinking it could end things quickly. I suspect the plan wasn't conquest, but rather was regime change. It's only as the war dragged on and Russia failed to achieve their objectives that things went down this path. It's possible to, fearing NATO, ironically take missteps to manage perceived risk and end up incurring a much greater risk as a result. It would indicate a strategic blunder but then... isn't that what this war is?
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
I don't know Radchenko but I have read a bit of and about Ragozin. He is basically a "mole" pretending to be against Putin but is actually attacking Western countries and Ukraine from the inside. A devious and dangerous person, pretending to be someone he is not.
You could be right, I don’t follow the guy, but occasionally see his posts and articles. I don’t believe this is the case from what I see. He certainly has different opinions from yours, but it doesn’t make him a “mole”, I don’t think. Over the past three years, a whole bunch of people were called “Russian shills” for various reasons, from western analysts and politicians to the Russian “opposition leaders” (departed Navalny, Kara-Murza, Yashin, etc, who actually are Russian “shills” by definition, but not in the spirit they are referred to as such) and people such as Ragozin. In absolute majority of cases this is because people do not have sufficient information to understand decisions made by others (politicians), unable or unwilling to see the reality, simply disagreeing with the “shill”, etc. It is actually pretty rare that the “shill” is actually a shill.

Anyway, the post I cited is not, like I said, someone’s misinterpretation or misrepresentation. This is real stuff and it is rather a rule than an exception. That was the point. Radchenko’s post (I provided the link) has links to the original conversation, but it is almost 2.5 hours of drivel and it is in Ukrainian, so I am not sure if it is of any use to most here.

Edit: yes to what Feanor said on the subject.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russia is currently in a spat with Azerbaijan after some arrests. Depending on who you believe, they're either going after leaders of organized crime or after legitimate Azeri businessmen. I suspect this might be related.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
You're assuming that he knew those would be the consequences. But Russia went into Ukraine thinking it could end things quickly. I suspect the plan wasn't conquest, but rather was regime change. It's only as the war dragged on and Russia failed to achieve their objectives that things went down this path. It's possible to, fearing NATO, ironically take missteps to manage perceived risk and end up incurring a much greater risk as a result. It would indicate a strategic blunder but then... isn't that what this war is?
Dont get me wrong, I agree completely with the concept that RU wanted a quick regime change and things spun way out of control. Now we have "good money following bad" and the RU demands are knowingly unacceptable to UKR at this time.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
Dont get me wrong, I agree completely with the concept that RU wanted a quick regime change and things spun way out of control. Now we have "good money following bad" and the RU demands are knowingly unacceptable to UKR at this time.
Not that the UKR demands are knowingly acceptable to RU at this time.
 
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