Superhornet was introduced in 1995. It was sold as an upgrade of the Hornet. While that isn't the reality. Basically no parts are common, the concept of the plane is similar. The 70's and 80's to a 1990's plane. Crews/pilots that worked on them in the 80s/90s/2000s/2010/2020s may still be useful. It uses logistics systems, warehousing systems etc from that era. We can target ex-raaf particularly from 2010) and ex-USN (from 1995! onwards). That is all I am really trying to communicate.
The F-35 is a paradigm shift. And was only introduced in small numbers to australia in 2018. Its a completely different game in capabilities, but also design, systems, logistics, warehousing, production etc. We are currently moving block III to Block IV a huge upgrade that is going to keep everyone in the F-35 world, pilots/maintainers/accountants busy.
True. But I think we all get a bit fixated on the future rather than the here and now. In 2020ish, a functional US seemed probable, China hadn't conducted any ops in the Tasman, global order seemed likely to continue particularly around Australia.
But it is a huge risk to both politicians and career people in uniform, to shoot the baby horses and ride the horses you have into war. You are actively sacrificing future capability for the here and now. Perhaps than analogy is a bit brutal.
Perhaps it's more like last drinks. When the call goes out for last drinks, you buy whatever you can as much as you can and take it back to your table. Even if it means, some wastage, something you don't really want or need.
As we get closer we know when the more opportune time is likely to precipitate.
2027 is still highly likely. We may even see smaller conflicts happen then related to the major conflict. China for example may take minor islands off Taiwan and Japan and Vietnam for example. There was a directive to be ready for war by 2027.
Be prepared to be surprised.
www.lowyinstitute.org
We are already seeing frantic preparations, including hardened aircraft hangars, amphibious ship production, a rapid expansion of the ballistic missile stock pile by 300%. So much so the US is frantically fitting CIWS and defences to Guam, including Marines, to stop the chinese taking Guam. Taking Guam.
2028 seems like the most likely currently. There is a US election in 2028. Several Chinese projects come in on 2028. US also has its own challenges for 2028, including the SH production line ending, its cruisers being decommissioned etc. Chinese production lead means the waiting a year gives them the advantage. So now highly likely to be late 2028 to start. Maybe early 2029. Conflict before 2030.. We are talking trying to lock in a future date of a war by a matter of months.
I'm not saying the FSP2020 was not correctly performed. But things have changed very dramatically. The future isn't as certain.
But will we be able to acquire, train, test and FOC that capability for the F-35 by 2028-2030? With the F-18 it is atleast a platform that is operational with Aim174.
I've already mentioned we should acquire more P8s. This isn't an either or type situation. I am saying acquire additional of any platform/munition we can. These capital costs can be written off over multiple years, presumable the defence budget will get some sort of increase in 2028 when we are fighting a peer war in the Pacific and the US looses half its airforce and carriers. Presumably.
Even acquiring the F-18s isn't a easy thing and may be too late. Even then it would be 5 single seat F-18E and 12 two seat 18F. So unless we want to horse trade with the USN, that is all that is on the shelf. It wouldn't even be available for anyone else than Australia, if we asked for it. In fact we may never receive them, we may have to give them back to the USN.
Maybe this is dumb. Doesn't mean it shouldn't be discussed/considered. If we are talking about acquiring 28 F-35 (which we probably should order anyway), then perhaps a discussion on what is and is not possible. Having discussion right now, means the blame game doesn't have to get played later. Those F-18 may not be available, even if we wanted them.
